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Fangraphs best and worst bargains


Dtwncbad

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19 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Fangraphs says Carlos Santana will be the best bargain for the money and that Eric Hosmer will be the worst bargain.

I personally was very tempted on Hosmer, but after reading the analysis I have changed my mind.

 

 

I didnt see anything hosing Hosmer in that article. It was all about Santana. Where is their analysis of Hosmer? I'm lazy, too. 

I do think that Santana's body type and age make him more likely to miss time than Hosmer. That hasnt happened yet, I realize.

But I prefer Santana as well. He's just been more consistent than Hosmer.

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52 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

I didnt see anything hosing Hosmer in that article. It was all about Santana. Where is their analysis of Hosmer? I'm lazy, too. 

I do think that Santana's body type and age make him more likely to miss time than Hosmer. That hasnt happened yet, I realize.

But I prefer Santana as well. He's just been more consistent than Hosmer.

Two different, separate articles.  One for best deals one for worst.

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2 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Shouldn't the article be written after the players sign?  

Good point, but it's fun to see who they see as overvalued/undervalued using the "projected" contracts that these players would get.  Obviously if Hosmer somehow only got a 3/36 contract, then yeah, he will change from overvalued to undervalued.  That said, Fangraphs usually seems to be in the ballpark when it comes to projecting contracts.

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I'm beginning to think the way organizations evaluate players will prevent an unproven like Hosmer to be bid too high simply due to age. It's sort of like Jason Heyward, monster contract simply because he was 26, and ignored the fact that his production was largely hit or miss. Teams will learn from that, you'd think.

JD Martinez will likely go the way of Nelson Cruz. Late career breakout, and teams will pay for that sort of offense as long as they can hide it in the DH spot of the lineup.

Darvish is a pitcher and he just hasn't been the same since TJ surgery. Are teams willing to take on that large of a risk for him?

At this point I think Carlos Santana is so underrated that he's become overrated in a short amount of time. Teams will start looking to him as a 5 year option, but given his age and the fact that his power isn't as major of a source as it should be, he could quickly become an unwise investment.

My guess is one of the second tier 1B like LoMo or Duda will end up providing surplus value and on the trade market, there are so many options that I think some team will score a quality 2B for cheap.

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38 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I'm beginning to think the way organizations evaluate players will prevent an unproven like Hosmer to be bid too high simply due to age. It's sort of like Jason Heyward, monster contract simply because he was 26, and ignored the fact that his production was largely hit or miss. Teams will learn from that, you'd think.

JD Martinez will likely go the way of Nelson Cruz. Late career breakout, and teams will pay for that sort of offense as long as they can hide it in the DH spot of the lineup.

Darvish is a pitcher and he just hasn't been the same since TJ surgery. Are teams willing to take on that large of a risk for him?

At this point I think Carlos Santana is so underrated that he's become overrated in a short amount of time. Teams will start looking to him as a 5 year option, but given his age and the fact that his power isn't as major of a source as it should be, he could quickly become an unwise investment.

My guess is one of the second tier 1B like LoMo or Duda will end up providing surplus value and on the trade market, there are so many options that I think some team will score a quality 2B for cheap.

Duda....Though his first run through the AL was meh other than than the power #'s (HR & RBIS). He actually had more HR's and RBI's per times at bat vs 20+ games in the NL last year... I've always watched his potential from a far and thought he would be a good get. Though now as he is sitting at 32 and his overall game and hitting didn't develop I might look elsewhere. I wouldn't mind him as the DH. But, we've already got 30M rotting away there!

Maybe, Jay Bruce would be better and stick him at 1B?

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