Being prepared on opening day

[gurn67]

17 seasons as manager. 15 slow starts (most of them downright terrible) including the last 8 seasons in a row! Even the two seasons this team didn't get out of the gate slowly, they didn't exactly set the world of fire (9-7 & 13-11). I've heard the excuses. "Well, they went 6-14 in 2002 and won the World Series." "Well, Sciocia's such a genius, and his system is just so complex, it takes the team a month or two to figure it out" Yeah, real rocket science. Throw the ball, hit the ball, catch the ball, run the bases. After 1 playoff appearance in the last 7 seasons, those excuses are getting tiresome. The games in April ( a lot of which come against division opponents) count the same as the games in August and September. Especially when you're a team that needs a lot of things to go right to be in playoff contention in August and September like they need to do this season. I don't have the answer, but I don't get paid $5,000,000 a year to have my team prepared to play at a high level on opening day. Other than watching Trout, last year was painful to watch from start to finish. It would be nice to see them come out of the gate looking like there's a sense of urgency for once.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Get ready for another rough start. Lots of new faces always seems to have that effect, plus open tryouts in the bullpen just about ensures it.

[WeatherWonk]

And probably no Albert. What's the latest on his status?

[Blarg]

52 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

And probably no Albert. What's the latest on his status?

 

 

[tomsred]

There are so many new players that we will be auditioning them at least a month into the regular season.   Plus, particularly on the pitching staff, they are definitely going to break in guys like Richards and Shoemaker very carefully.  I think a .500 record in April would be optimistic.

[nando714]

Too many flies in the ointment in April 

[Inside Pitch]

 

It's been a while since we've seen the old "sense of urgency" and looking like they care stuff..   it's been sorely missed.  Anyone know when they start filming "The Gary Disarcina Story", it will be chock full of urgency, mad dog stares, and looking like he cares.   

[Second Base]

I can't really explain the slow starts, but I don't think blaming it on Scioscia is totally fair either. 

I like the way Chris Iannetta once put it. The best teams generally play .500 ball the whole season. They stay right there in the middle. They just have one or two hot stretches per year, which is what makes them win 90 games.

[Erstad Grit]

Im a scioscia fan but the slow start criticism is fair and accurate.  Too many times angels have played well but had too big of a hill to climb.  A nice 9- 3 start would do wonders this year.  

[nando714]

6-14

ok I said it

[Stradling]

Yea it's tough to argue the validity of it, considering it's fact.  He got a lot of criticism on here for his springs being too lax.  The last few years the everyday players are getting stretched out earlier in spring and playing longer than they once did.  Season starts and same result.  This year sadly will be inconsistent at the start because the biggest need wasn't addressed, the bullpen. 

[greginpsca]

When i was a kid back in the 60's, we would go watch the workouts during spring. Back then they would play several intra-squad games, where we could watch  pretty much all of the position players at the same time, and quite a few of the pitchers. They played 7 innings and you could also see several pitchers throw an inning or 2.  Now, when i go to Tempe and watch workouts you never see much more than infield and outfield drills and pitchers throwing to catchers. And i think they are done in a couple of hours. I get the feeling some of the players get more time in working on their golf games than baseball. This is before exhibition games start. Some of those seasons, the team would be competitive in the beginning and falter during the summer.And those teams didn't have a lot of talent or depth as they were a fairly new franchise.

[Hubs]

Your numbers are just wrong. 

Angels First Month* records in Mike Scioscia era.

2016: 11-13

2015: 11-11

2014: 14-13

2013: 9-17

2012: 8-15

2011: 15-12

2010: 12-12

2009: 9-12

2008: 18-11

2007: 15-11

2006: 12-13

2005: 13-11

2004: 13-10

2003: 13-14

2002: 11-14 (started 6-14)

2001: 10-15

2000: 13-13

*April and March reg. season games

They've had a .500 record or better in 9 of 17 seasons. They've been within 3 games of .500 in 5 additional seasons, and had bad records in 2001, 2012, and 2013. That's it. 

 

[Docwaukee]

in the MS era, we have the 4th best regular season record in sept/oct.  270-213

the question becomes, would the team sacrifice wins late in the season due to fatigue if they came out of the gate faster.  

Our best chance of getting off to a good start this year is if the offense hits the ground running giving the pitching some time to figure things out.   

But it's probably gonna happen again.  

[Hubs]

Also, the Angels have an average schedule in April, and the year as a whole isn't that bad. There is one stretch in June where they get the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers back to  back to back, but that's it.

They open in Oakland for 4 before welcoming Seattle and Texas to Anaheim for three each. If they can come back 6-4 I'm ok, but I'd love a 7-3 or 8-2 start here. Then they go to KC and to Houston on a 7 game trip. If they can go 3-4 or 4-3 here, great. After the 4 at Houston, they get 4 against the Blue Jays in Anaheim and Oakland for three. Then they go to Texas for three to finish the month. The last ten if they go 6-4 I'll be happy. That's at least 15-12, and as good as 18-9.

Games against 2016 playoff teams in April of 2017? 10. Against division favorites? 4.

May gets a little easier with 3 in Seattle to open the month then the Astros come to Anaheim. This is the start of 2 weeks not leaving California. They go to Oakland for 3 then get the Tigers and White Sox for 7. Then they get their first real long trip of the year, but it's against the Mets (3), Rays (4), and Marlins (3). Coming home to face the Braves for 3 to close out May. 

Going 3-3 in the first road series and first home series of the month would be great, but even if they only go 2-4 ok. Then I hope for a 7-3 or 8-2 record against the next 10. On the 10 game roadie against the Mets and Florida teams, at worst I'm hoping for 5-5. I think the Braves are terrible so I'm hoping for a sweep there. At worst in May then you're at 16-13.

In June they start with 4 at home against the Twins then it's off to Detroit and the Astros for 3 each. Let's hope for a 9-1 record here with the loss probably against the Astros, but if they go 7-3 here, ok. Follow this 10 with a 7 game homestand against the Yankees (3) and the Royals (4). I don't think either of these teams is significantly better than the Angels, but lets say they just go 3-4. An 8 game road trip against the Yankees, Sox, and Dodgers is up next, and let's hope they go .500. Then we get the second half of the Dodgers series at home, say 1-1. We finish the month with 3 against the Mariners but only one of those is in June. I say we win it. 

June I think is the 2nd or 3rd toughest month with a long east coast swing, and no day off before the Dodgers series starts. 16-12 for the month.

July starts with the rest of the Mariners series at home, let's hope for a split. They then go to Minnesota and Texas to close out the first half. Let's say they go 4-2 here. The second half opens with 8 at home against the Rays (3) Nationals (2) and Red Sox (3). 5 Wins here hopefully, but let's say they split it and go 4-4. They go on the road against the Indians and Blue Jays to end the month. I hope for a split but let's say they just go 2-4. 11-11 for the month is reasonable, but they could easily be 2 or 3 wins better or worse than that.

August starts at home against the Phillies, A's and Orioles, and I am hoping for 7-2 here. The Phillies and A's were bad last year and the Orioles average. But then they have 9 on the road against the Mariners, Nationals and Orioles. Let's hope for 4-5 or 5-4 here. But worst case, say 3-6.  But they close out the month with 10 at home against the Rangers, Astros, and Athletics. They have to win their home games to make it a good season, but say we take 2 from each team, and end up 6-4. Worst case, that's 16-12. With 19 home games versus 9 road games, I'd expect better, but 4 games over is a good month.

September is the toughest month of the year. They open with 9 on the road against Texas, Oakland and Seattle, which I hope they can come back with a winning record of 5-4. but let's say they don't and come back 3-6. Then they get 9 at home against the Astros, Rangers and Indians, who all figure to be in the hunt. Let's say they struggle to a 5-4 record there. The Indians may have clinched the division by then, because their division is terrible. They then go to Houston and Chicago, hopefully they can take advantage of the White Sox and win one in Houston, so 5-2 or 4-3. They then finish with three at home against the M's, which they hopefully win 2 of. For September, that's a 15-14.

So, not really any super tough series except in June and September. 

That's an 89 win team. I could see them doing one game worse or better in each month, easily, but taking advantage of April and May is crucial. If they can manage a 17 win month in both April and May, they'd be 34-22 in their first two months. Adding 17 wins in June, and then the 5 wins to close out the first half I have above and they end up with a 56-36 record at the break, which is freaking awesome. If they then do well in the rest of July, better than I have above, say 9 wins to 5 losses, and they are at 65-41 going into August. If they can do 19 wins this month, (14 wins at home), They'd be at 79 wins going into September.

If they then improved by one win in September over what I have it's a 95 win season. 

Now if they start out poorly, and say go 11-17, then follow that up with 14-15 in May, then 12-16 in June, even a good July 13-9 and August 16-12, won't save them. They'd probably end up with 11 or 12 wins in September and a 78 win season.

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

Eppler did a solid job in the off-season, except that I am really surprised that he didn't sign even one established reliever.

Now we have to hope for enough of the borderline relievers to produce, for Bedrosian to continue his dominant ways, for Street to recover enough, and for Bailey to prove that September 2016 wasn't a fluke.

[Hubs]

My super optimistic results above rely on us beating up on the Athletics (14-5) and holding our own against the Mariners (11-8), Rangers (10-9), and Astros (9-10). 44-32. That might be a tad optimistic, but even if they are 2-3 games worse, it's still a good outcome, 41-35? OK.

I then have them beating up on the NL East, winning 11 of the 16 games. I have them split the rest of interleague at 2-2 against the Dodgers. That's 13-7.

Against the AL Central, I have them winning 19 of the 33 games.

Against the AL East, 19 of 33 as well. 

That's 95 and super optimistic. If they want 90, winning 42 against their division, plus, 12-8 interleague and 18-14 in both the Central and East gets them there.

[Brian Ilten]

5 hours ago, Hubs said:

Your numbers are just wrong. 

Angels First Month* records in Mike Scioscia era.

2016: 11-13

2015: 11-11

2014: 14-13

2013: 9-17

2012: 8-15

2011: 15-12

2010: 12-12

2009: 9-12

2008: 18-11

2007: 15-11

2006: 12-13

2005: 13-11

2004: 13-10

2003: 13-14

2002: 11-14 (started 6-14)

2001: 10-15

2000: 13-13

*April and March reg. season games

They've had a .500 record or better in 9 of 17 seasons. They've been within 3 games of .500 in 5 additional seasons, and had bad records in 2001, 2012, and 2013. That's it. 

 

I think he made his point. The Angels have been down right nothing more than mediocre at best in the first month. 

 

The good news?  Scioscia is gone after this year!!!!

[tomsred]

On 2/12/2017 at 6:53 PM, nando714 said:

6-14

ok I said it

Oh please, anything but that.  That means a tons of posts and news articles on how the Angels started 6-14 in 2002.  That would be the start from hell.

[maximus p]

3 hours ago, Brian Ilten said:

I think he made his point. The Angels have been down right nothing more than mediocre at best in the first month. 

 

The good news?  Scioscia is gone after this year!!!!

We can dream!

[ettin]

1 hour ago, tomsred said:

Oh please, anything but that.  That means a tons of posts and news articles on how the Angels started 6-14 in 2002.  That would be the start from hell.

I can't put my finger on it tomsred but I think we're going to have a good year. Please have some taffy candy ready for when we sit together at the first playoff game

[Redondo]

14 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Eppler did a solid job in the off-season, except that I am really surprised that he didn't sign even one established reliever.

Now we have to hope for enough of the borderline relievers to produce, for Bedrosian to continue his dominant ways, for Street to recover enough, and for Bailey to prove that September 2016 wasn't a fluke.

Agree with this. I too am surprised Eppler didn't bring in one or two established RP's to balance the pen while the others battle for the last spots. Could it cause us to lose games auditioning guys that are trying to get their stuff together?

[fan_since79]

19 hours ago, Brian Ilten said:

I think he made his point. The Angels have been down right nothing more than mediocre at best in the first month. 

 

The good news?  Scioscia is gone after this year!!!!

Uh...no.

His contract runs through the 2018 season. And with Arte, there's always a chance at another 10-year extension.

 

[tomsred]

On 2/13/2017 at 10:19 PM, ettin said:

I can't put my finger on it tomsred but I think we're going to have a good year. Please have some taffy candy ready for when we sit together at the first playoff game

Now that sounds like a really good plan.  I'm in!

[Tank]

i'm always hopeful they'll start out 10-4. that always seemed to be a mark of excellence as far back as i can remember.