Which Team is the Next to Rebuild?

[Docwaukee]

I would guess it's gonna be Detroit.  

A couple of other possibilities include the Nats, Jays, M's, Royals (probably not gonna have a choice).  The Giants have a ton of future salaries committed.  My sleeper pick is the Rangers.  They're going to lose Darvish after this season and Hamels is entering his age 33yo year.  Around the time where SPs fall off a cliff.  Beltre is almost 38.  Odor had a 3% walk rate.  That's got to get exploited at some point.  Lucroy is a really nice player that will be a FA after the season.  None of the rest of their pitchers or position players exactly strike fear and they massively overachieved last year.  I could see them being sellers at the break.  

I didn't include the halos on my list, because rebuilding isn't in our DNA 

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I would guess it's gonna be Detroit.  

A couple of other possibilities include the Nats, Jays, M's, Royals (probably not gonna have a choice).  The Giants have a ton of future salaries committed.  My sleeper pick is the Rangers.  They're going to lose Darvish after this season and Hamels is entering his age 33yo year.  Around the time where SPs fall off a cliff.  Beltre is almost 38.  Odor had a 3% walk rate.  That's got to get exploited at some point.  Lucroy is a really nice player that will be a FA after the season.  None of the rest of their pitchers or position players exactly strike fear and they massively overachieved last year.  I could see them being sellers at the break.  

I didn't include the halos on my list, because rebuilding isn't in our DNA 

The Rangers farm has taken a huge hit as well, and Hamels was pretty awful in Sept/Oct. They gave up a ridiculous haul to get him if he doesn't right the ship. 
That team has the potential to get really ugly really fast. 

[Oz27]

The Tigers need to sell hard. It's time for them to cash in on Verlander's resurgence, move Martinez for whatever they can get and listen to offers for anyone else too.

If I were the Royals I would sell too. But their recent history of mediocre teams getting freakishly lucky will probably convince them otherwise.

[Troll Daddy]

Washington Nationals

[Second Base]

I expect the Blue Jays and Yankees to start retooling after Detroit and KC.

[kevinb]

9 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I expect the Blue Jays and Yankees to start retooling after Detroit and KC.

Yankees are started 

[Wallerrrr]

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

Yankees are started 

They've done a pretty awesome job too

[ettin]

Yes Doc full rebuilds are happening soon in Detroit and Kansas City they just have too many high priced players respective to their payrolls. Of course the White Sox are already in the process. I'd agree the Blue Jays might reboot after this season if they can't gain any traction. The Athletics seem like they should. Padres too.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, ettin said:

Yes Doc full rebuilds are happening soon in Detroit and Kansas City they just have too many high priced players respective to their payrolls. Of course the White Sox are already in the process. I'd agree the Blue Jays might reboot after this season if they can't gain any traction. The Athletics seem like they should. Padres too.

Oakland is already.  They're gonna trade Vogt, Davis, Madson, Joyce and Gray the first chance they get.  Before year's end.  They are looking for those guys to gain a little value.

The padres have zero players with committed money and one player in arb-2.  A reliever.  Carter Capps who I am sure they'll move soon.  They're going to cash in on a Myers trade soon enough as well.  

Both teams have a good farm already.    

 

[arch stanton]

The thing about rebuilds is there has to be an end game. The Cubs were always going to spend again when the time came. After what happened in '14 I have no idea what they're doing in Oakland. The Royals and Pirates both awoke after decades long slumber and now it looks like they might have to reset again. San Diego screwed themselves so they don't have much choice.

What the Cubs did should give White Sox fans hope that they can pull off the same thing. There's still plenty to sell off but they're going to have trouble being the worst team in their own division, much less the league, so the draft picks might not be quite as high as they hope.

[Blarg]

Oakland is never really built under Beane . They are perpetually in some transition and there never seems to be an end game. 

[NJHalo]

15 hours ago, Kevinb said:

Yankees are started 

I hope Eppler was paying attention to what Cashman did in one season.

Perhaps the greatest job of re-tooling a farm system I have ever seen.

[nikkachez]

Kansas City 

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, NJHalo said:

I hope Eppler was paying attention to what Cashman did in one season.

Perhaps the greatest job of re-tooling a farm system I have ever seen.

He can pay attention all he wants, we don't have Miller and Chapman to trade.  Bedrosian hasn't established himself like that.  We have one guy that could bring a haul like that and he's not getting traded.  

[Stradling]

I am thinking that Detroit will be the next one to completely rebuild. Trade Verlander at the deadline or next off season.  I wonder how much of MCab's contract they will have to eat to move him.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Well, lets go the other way and say which teams will not ever be doing a "Complete re-build"..Which to me is a FIRE SALE... Yankee's, Mets, BoSox, Detroit, Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, Halos, St. Louis.  

Our Halos --- Just enough to dampen your panties and to get the juices flowing. But, not over the top unless a real young player comes available and "The Franchise Fish" suggests someone.....And before you quote me on this hear me out..... "That's a Clown statement Bro".... No really think about it?...

Baltimore --- Upper Mid Market with large market dreams.... East Coast have to spend to be competitive with the neighbors! Minor League system isn't what it was in the 70's/80's.....

Mets --- Will be interesting as they have had success the last couple years! When that pitching staff gets there they will have some decisions to make! Serious Coin drop! Or, sell 1 or 2 for 3B, middle infield, OF?

Pale Hose ---- Different as they are in the #3 market and their salary wasn't completely out of control overall. Kind of surprising to me actually!

Odd Team = Rangers --- Seem to get some aging stars and aren't afraid to take on a contract. Minors talent is dissipating due to those deals. Maybe, not a complete blow up but they will drop some salary in the next few years. I don't believe they will ever be the Astros and drop 5-8 years in a row to build up their draft lines. But, they do have a strong international presence and aren't afraid to drop the coin on that! 

Cards ---- Great farm system know when to hold em know when to fold em! They also know when to drop some coin. Will never be a complete rebuild.

Tigers --- As long as the Miggy & Verlander contracts are there they can deal parts and players to bring a portion of their salary down. But, then they drop some coin on a Starting pitcher and raise it back up...

Rebuild ----- To a small extent the Giants due to some aging players and FA's. Same with M's as their contracts age Cano/Felix etc.

Constant deep fluctuation every few seasons ---- Astros, Indians, Royals.

Fire Sale ---- A's, Reds (lower 3rd mid market/small market though they do have contracts those players are aging), Marlins (due to Loria), Brewers (constant flucuation), Rays (shedding of large contracts).

[NJHalo]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

He can pay attention all he wants, we don't have Miller and Chapman to trade.  Bedrosian hasn't established himself like that.  We have one guy that could bring a haul like that and he's not getting traded.  

True, but he was not handed Miller or Chapman. Had to go out and get them. Signed one away from a division rival, and traded for the other when his stock was low.

Cashed in his chips when the time was right, and traded from strength knowing he still had Betances.

[eligrba]

10 hours ago, Blarg said:

Oakland is never really built under Beane . They are perpetually in some transition and there never seems to be an end game. 

I think Beane may have been visited by the same spirit as Winchester's wife.

[Ohtaniland]

22 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I would guess it's gonna be Detroit.  

A couple of other possibilities include the Nats, Jays, M's, Royals (probably not gonna have a choice).  The Giants have a ton of future salaries committed.  My sleeper pick is the Rangers.  They're going to lose Darvish after this season and Hamels is entering his age 33yo year.  Around the time where SPs fall off a cliff.  Beltre is almost 38.  Odor had a 3% walk rate.  That's got to get exploited at some point.  Lucroy is a really nice player that will be a FA after the season.  None of the rest of their pitchers or position players exactly strike fear and they massively overachieved last year.  I could see them being sellers at the break.  

I didn't include the halos on my list, because rebuilding isn't in our DNA 

We've actually been rebuilding since the end of 2011. Richards and Trout are the only players left from that roster. We were 86-76 and in 2nd place in 2011 with the 5th best record in the American League. 

Its ironic that the league added another wild card spot (one year late) after 2011 at the same time we were signing Pujols & Wilson and we still couldn't qualify for the playoffs. Then on this very day of Angels infamy 12-14-12 we entered into an agreement with Josh Hamilton and still couldn't qualify for the playoffs. 

So my point is that rebuilding is in our DNA because we have rebuilt the team but not with great success. Our two best players are still Trout and Richards. 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

We've actually been rebuilding since the end of 2011. Richards and Trout are the only players left from that roster. We were 86-76 and in 2nd place in 2011 with the 5th best record in the American League. 

Its ironic that the league added another wild card spot (one year late) after 2011 at the same time we were signing Pujols & Wilson and we still couldn't qualify for the playoffs. Then on this very day of Angels infamy 12-14-12 we entered into an agreement with Josh Hamilton and still couldn't qualify for the playoffs. 

So my point is that rebuilding is in our DNA because we have rebuilt the team but not with great success. Our two best players are still Trout and Richards. 

can you name a team that has more than 5 players from it's 2011 roster?  The avg per season is having 10 different players on the 25 man from the previous opening day.  That's called normal attrition relative to the rules of player control.  

Mike Trout is always going to be your best player regardless if you've done significant roster turnover or not.  BTW, we have Calhoun and Simmons.  

We also 'qualified' for the playoffs in 2014.  

I think you are using 'ironic' incorrectly.  

There are probably other fallacies in your post, but I'm bored now.  

[Erstad Grit]

On 12/13/2016 at 1:18 PM, Oz27 said:

The Tigers need to sell hard. It's time for them to cash in on Verlander's resurgence, move Martinez for whatever they can get and listen to offers for anyone else too.

If I were the Royals I would sell too. But their recent history of mediocre teams getting freakishly lucky will probably convince them otherwise.

With what the big 3 FA closers just got I'd imagine Krod could get something in return. 

[m0nkey]

Angels don't rebuild, they retool 

[Ohtaniland]

13 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

Angels don't rebuild, they retool 

or get tooled.

[ten ocho recon scout]

12 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Miggy is owed such an obscene amount of money, that it's challenging to consider the cost to acquire him.

Miggy is probably worth about $30-$35M per season on average.

He is also entering his age 34 season and is owed $220 million over the next 7 years basically.

Let's assume he takes a .5 WAR decline per season from 4.0 WAR

2017 - 4.0 WAR
2018 - 3.5 WAR
2019 - 3
2020 - 2.5
2021 - 2
2022 - 1.5
2023 - 1

Or....play until 2023 and produce 17.5 more career WAR

17.5 WAR on the open market probably costs around 8 million. Let's ignore inflation for ease here.

That's 140 million in value, and he's owed 220 million.

As a hitter, he is elite. But those last years are going to be awful.

Tigers would have to give up some major cash to get a decent return in my opinion.

I’m basing these numbers on a few players I think that Miggy is comparable to. I'm keeping this solely to right handed hitters. I think lefties are just made differently and get to face more righties.

There are 16 right handed hitters in baseball history with 5000 PA and a 150 OPS+ through their age 33 seasons.
Hornsby, Thomas, Foxx, Pujols, Mays, Allen, Aaron, Robinson, Bagwell, DiMaggio, Manny, McGwire, Miggy, Piazza, Killebrew, Schmidt

The five I like for this comparison are Schmidt, Allen, Thomas, Pujols, and Manny.
McGwire was a PED monster, Bagwell didn't play long enough, Mays was an athletic CFer (so was DiMaggio), Hornsby played a century ago, etc.

1. Frank Thomas
Through their age 34 seasons, Thomas has better numbers (10 points in OPS+, .35 points in OBP, etc). Thomas had an injury derailed 33 season. But still produced when on the field for a number of years and played until he was 40.

I would say they are similar in body size.

Thomas from age 34-40
.263/.378/.509 - 3197 PA - 14.9 rWAR

2. Manny Ramirez
Manny isn't as big as Miggy and Manny had the PED issues.

But through their age 33 season, their have almost identical slash lines and values.

from 34-39, Manny hit .308/.415/.547 - 2549 PA - 14.2 rWAR

3. Schmidt
Schmidt was a comparable hitter, but more athletic and smaller than Miggy. He was, for example, a great defensive third basemen. Miggy struggles with all lateral movements.
But Miggy would also get the edge offensively through their age 33 season.

Schmidt from 34-39
.274/.373/.512 - 3170 PA - 25.7 rWAR (with well above league average defense btw)

4. Dick Allen
I think people forget what a monster Dick Allen was as a hitter in the late 60's/early 70's. You can say the league exploded a bit then too with the expansion era. But still, he had 331 HR, and a 159 OPS+ through his age 33 season.

But he only played two more years.
Age 34-35 and had 539 PA and 0.9 rWAR.

This is why he isn't in the hall of fame. He was also smaller than Miggy.

5. Pujols
Pujols was undoubtedly better through his age 33 season than Miggy. In fact, he was the best in this group.
But in the three seasons since then, he has totaled .261/.318/.468 - 2006 PA, 8.4 rWAR


My summary:

He isn't athletic like Schmidt, and I don't think he's about to be done like Pujols or Allen.

I think Frank Thomas brings out the best comp. And projecting 12-18 more rWAR from Miggy is completely acceptable. 

Very few of those guys on that list of 16 topped 20 rWAR after their age 34 season.

 

Ive been waiting years to see the term monster dick on here. its been since escobar i think.