Getting the Angels back to contention next year

[Angelsjunky]

Just for gits and shiggles, let's play make-believe. How could the Angels actually return to contention next year? By "contention" I mean a team that, as a baseline, should win 85+ games, with a solid chance of 90 or more. I'm not talking 95+ win dominance.

First off, it is worth noting that the Pythagorean record is actually solidly better than their actual record, 58-67 vs. 52-73. In other words, with a bit better luck they're just bad this year and not godawful. So we start there.

Well, looking at who the Angels have, who is injured, and who is leaving and unlikely to return, the main holes on the team are: 2B, LF, SP, and to a slightly lesser extent, RP. Every other position in the lineup is "good enough" to be part of a contending team, if 2B and LF are improved. To do that, the Angels would have to sign an outfielder who is at least good, so one of Cespedes, Desmond, Reddick, Saunders, maybe Fowler, Rasmus, Bautista, Trumbo, or Beltran. The only good starting 2B available is Neil Walker.

As for the rotation, among current starts the only one we can assume will be good next year is Shoemaker. Richards, Meyer, and Skaggs are questionable, and Nolasco is a #5. Even if we cross our fingers on this one and hope that one or two of the three question marks turns out reasonably well, to contend the Angels need at least one good starter--and there really isn't much available. Probably the best free agent is Jeremy Hellickson, who isn't more than a #3. After that you have players like Cashner, Fister, Hill, Anderson, Latos, Nova, etc. A really weak class.

With the bullpen, there are three top tier closers available: Jensen, Chapman, and Melancon, and then a deep field of solid to good relievers. The Angels have some workable players but probably need a couple plus relievers to contend. They could make up for an average-at-best rotation with a kick-ass bullpen, so let's say they need one of the big three. Jensen will be the most expensive and also require a draft pick, so let's assume one of the other two.

Then you have:

3B Escobar

2B Walker

CF Trout

LF Cespedes

DH Pujols

RF Calhoun

1B Cron

C Bandy

SS Simmons

All of a sudden you have a pretty good, even very good, lineup. But it costs $40-50 million a year ($25-30m for Cespedes, $15-20m for Walker). Maybe save $5m a year and replace Cespedes with Desmond or Reddick, or a bit more with Fowler, etc, but the offensive weight goes down.

Rotation: Richards, Shoemaker, Hellickson, Meyer/Skaggs, Nolasco

Hmm...Still not very sexy, and costing $15+m a year more. But we've got to cut corners somewhere.

Bullpen: Melancon/Chapman, Street, Bedrosian, D Guerra, Alvarez, Morin, etc

Should be very good, although not sure Huston would accept it. But I'm guessing he'd be happier with a ring than without.

So the above team gets you into contention, but you're spending maybe around $80 million a year this offseason--about double what is coming off payroll. You could even maybe replace Cespedes with one of the lesser players and sign a good middle reliever instead of a top tier closer and save a bit, but you're still going to need to spend $60-70m a year.

What about a bargain approach? The Angels could not sign Walker and go with what they have at 2B, and go after a Reddick or Desmond and still improve the offense. $20m a year. They still need a starter, but maybe Fister or Anderson will do. Maybe. Still $15m a year, probably. And then nickel-and-dime the bullpen...you could probably improve the team by spending not much more than the $40 surplus, but then you're talking more of an 80-win base with 85 wins being hopeful.

Even then the Angels need some luck as far as the rotation is concerned. At least one of Richards, Skaggs, and Meyer has to qualify as a "pleasant surprise," and probably two of them need to be at least decent.

Anyhow, the point of this wasn't to make recommendations, but to give a sense of what it would take to get the Angels back into being taken seriously. By my quick-and-dirty calculations, they would need to spend around $80 million per yer to be probable contenders, $50-60 million to be possible contenders, and $40-45 million or so to have a vague squinting-just-right (aka Chuck-esque rosy-glasses) chance.

Oh yeah, and some luck.

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I don't think they should try to push anything for '17 and instead focus on '18. So this means trying to find the right deals for the team going forward, and seeing how things shake out.

There is nothing we can do to fix the rotation, so we should focus on putting out our best infield defense. Right now I think that means keeping Cowart at third, and Pennington at second. Let's see if Escobar can work out in left field, or if we can get something worthwhile trade him. If Cowart doesn't pan out we can move Escobar back to 3rd. 

Sign some rotation filler, with ground ball profiles, that aren't too expensive.

Overhaul the bullpen. Sign at least 2 reliable arms, but don't do anything stupid.

If things go well I think this can be a competitive team. I won't have high expectations but I think we can stay in the wild card discussion.

 

[Angelsjunky]

Fair enough, and I don't disagree with you and would prefer that the Angels don't spend big. But the point of my post was NOT to recommend a certain path forward, but to give a sense of what would be required to have a good chance at being competitive next year.

[19HALO71]

I've been a Cespedes fan since he threw out Kendrick at home, on the fly by 3 steps, from the left field foul pole. Oh, and he also rakes. I would really like to see him in left field for years to come.

Go Halos!!!

[totdprods]

It also sounds like Cespedes isn't planning on opting out this year. 

[tdawg87]

Cespedes for LF.

Anderson and Fister for the rotation.

Melancon and Chapman for the pen.

Add about 50 million in payroll after Weaver and Wilson are off the books.

Finish 86-76 and 2 games out of the 2nd wildcard.

[ksangel]

It's tempting to want the Angels to sign FA's to fill the 2B and LF voids but....

 

From what's being posted Cespedes will honor his three year contract and not opt out after this year.

I get hard burn thinking of signing Ian Desmond (who rejected a $107M/7 year contract offer from the Nats a couple of years ago) knowing he'll be 31 in September and really slumped in 2015 with the Nats - both offensively(.238/19/62) and defensively - in his walk year.  He was quite productive from 2012 to 2014 (.299/25/73, .280/20/80 and .255/24/91 - notice the trending down of average...to .238 in 2015) plus he's on track for a .290/26/96 year in 2016. He'll want big bucks knowing he passed up $107M before and not sure he's worth the risk - Gary Matthew Jr. II???  Will be interesting to see if the Rangers try to sign him before the end of the season - that would say a lot about what they think of him.

Saunders is hitting .189 or so the second half of 2016 with little power (nice homer last night though) so not sold on him either.

Fowler is the most interesting and should demand a smaller contract than Desmond.  Plus he might make Escobar expendable by filling the lead off position allowing Cowart to take over at 3B and give the Angels a better overall defensive infield with Pennington/Petit rotation at 2B.  Signing Fowler basically would fill Escobar's offensive #'s with Fowler and replace LF hole with potential of Cowart...plus a ++ on improving LF and 3B defense.

Don't know enough about Reddick but would pass on Trumbo, Beltran, Bautista or Rasmus. 

Don't really want Angels to sign to be 31 year old Neil Walker either for $50M/4 years plus.

 

It will be an interesting off season for sure and so much regarding the pitching staff hinges on how Richards progresses.

 

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

51 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Fair enough, and I don't disagree with you and would prefer that the Angels don't spend big. But the point of my post was NOT to recommend a certain path forward, but to give a sense of what would be required to have a good chance at being competitive next year.

Part of what Im saying is that, it won't take "A LOT" but we are limited in what we can actually achieve.

[Erstad Grit]

I don't think Shoe is a question mark. 

Cespedes would be crazy to not opt out. 

[jsnpritchett]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I

There is nothing we can do to fix the rotation, so we should focus on putting out our best infield defense. Right now I think that means keeping Cowart at third, and Pennington at second.

 

Blech.  He hasn't been a full-time starter since 2012, and there's a reason for that.

[AngelsLakersFan]

14 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Blech.  He hasn't been a full-time starter since 2012, and there's a reason for that.

Pennington / Petite is what I mean... we can bring in an alternative as well, I just don't really see much on the market that I think we should be looking at spending on.

[Angelsjunky]

30 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I don't think Shoe is a question mark. 

That's why I said that he's the only one who isn't a question mark.

[totdprods]

I'll give it a whirl. 

• Sign Jon Jay, 2-yr/$20m to play LF. (Adds $10m per year)
• Trade Kole Calhoun and Carlos Perez to Cleveland Indians for SP Trevor Bauer and RP Shawn Armstrong - either team throwing in a lower-level prospect to balance things out. (Salary about even, off top of head)
• Sign Josh Reddick, 5-yr/$90m to play RF. (Adds $18m per year)
• Sign an Alex Avila/Drew Butera/Josh Thole/...Mathis... to a 1-yr/$2m (Adds $2m)
• If you're able to trade Yunel Escobar for something truly worth it - a cheap reliever or a legit AA/AAA outfield prospect - pull the trigger on it. Don't do it just for the sake of moving him. I would actually prefer to keep him, but if someone offered the prospect I wanted, I'd make the deal.
• If Escobar is dealt, sign one of Prado, Utley, Valbuena if you can get them for $10m-ish per year or less, no more than 3 years. Preferably 2, and Utley no more than 1.
• If you can't sign one of the above, go cheap as hell, and sign Kelly Johnson or Stephen Drew for 1-yr, $4m as a low-risk option. Check 'em out. They haven't been that bad, and they'd come cheap. Easily cut if they suck, or you get lucky and have a decent UT IF on your hands.

At this point, you've added between $30m-$40m per year. This is where not being able to move Street really hurts. Subtracting Weaver/Wilson about equals out the cost, so financially, you're about even with this year. Without being 100% sure of salaries and arbitration projections, I'm going to hold off signing any more FA's at this point. If I was able to sign another, I'd probably lock up one of the big three closers, or overpay for someone like Prado/Walker/Valbuena and move Escobar for a lesser haul, or keep both for an offense-heavy 2B/3B tandem and lean on a highly defensive-oriented bench. 

3B Escobar (if dealt, Jay leads off, put acquired 2B/3B in where appropriate) 
LF Jay
CF Trout
DH Pujols
1B Cron
RF Reddick 
SS Simmons
C Bandy
2B Pennington
Bench: Avila, Petit, Marte are my locks - maybe Bourjos-type for 4th OF/PR

Rotation: Shoemaker, Skaggs, Richards, Bauer, Nolasco
Bullpen: Street, Bedrosian, Armstrong, Guerra, Ramirez, Oberholtzer are my locks 

In SLC, I've got Meyer, Banuelos, Smith, Choi, Cowart, Alcantara, Morin, Middleton, Valdez, Ege, Ortega as some of the depth and insurance for injuries/ineffectiveness, or, if the team starts to struggle, in-house replacements for dealing off guys like Street, Nolasco, Jay, and Escobar.

You've got a pretty good group of guys in AAA for insurance, including a bevy of pitchers. Can play around with Meyer, Banuelos, and Oberholtzer as potential elite relievers this way. Financially, you're not much worse off than you are now. You didn't deal any real prospects besides Carlos Perez, and while I love Carlos, I'm starting to love Bandy a lot more, and I'd give him 110-120 starts while he's young. At that point, you can get by with a replacement value back-up catcher, and cash in on someone seeing Perez as a full-time starter. Reddick is the only long-term money added. There's still tremendous risk - but I think this is a good team on paper without doing much damage to the future in terms of prospects or money.

One other big aspect to my plan, it's done with an eye on '18 just as much as 2017. That next year, Cowart can roll into 3B. Street can move along, and Bedrosian can ascend to closer. Heaney and Tropeano return to a rotation that's now loaded with options - all without banking on Banuelos, Meyer, Oberholtzer, or Smith to succeed. So they're in the equation or bullpen as well. Jon Jay can slide into a reserve role if a 4th OF role if an OF has started pushing him - or he can be dealt midseason 2018 or let go at the end of the year if Thaiss, Jones, Hermosillo, whomever is starting to enter the OF picture. 

[Troll Daddy]

All the FO has to do is make the team better than it is now. If the team gets a protected pick ... then use it smartly. This really isn't a difficult task. 

I'm against trading Escobar for prospects. I would consider trading for a pitcher who can be used in 2017. Although, I prefer it be done at the trade deadline. 

I would hold onto Escobar even if Fowler is signed. That would be a nice one two punch getting to Trout

I would consider trading Cron if he could snag us a pitcher(s). He is under club control through 2020. I'm not sure about  his trade value.

I'm happy with one reliable mid-rotation starter. 

Bullpen is always a work in progress.

Eppler's has stated the the plan is to continue to invest into the team and the farm. 

As they say, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

 

 

 

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

Just give Cowart 3B in 2017, and see what happens.

Trade Escobar for a solid reliever.

Reinvest in Latin America.

Sign a 2B that won't cost much and not have a 2nd round pick attached.   Playing Cowart at 2B would be a waste of a great throwing arm.

Sign a decent LF who wouldn't cost a 2nd round pick.

Let Street mentor Bedrosian, Middleton, Alcantara, D. Guerra, Morin, and Ramirez.

Tell Cron to work hard on 1B defense.

Tell Pujols he is permanent DH from now on.

Stay with Bandy and Perez for the next two seasons.   Then see if Ward supplants Perez.

Wait until after 2018 to truly go back into FA.   By then, Pujols' salary (3 years for $87 million) is the only major issue.

Starting pitching should sort itself out by either 2018 or 2019.

Maybe contend in 2018, but expect it in 2019.

 

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Just give Cowart 3B in 2017, and see what happens.

Trade Escobar for a solid reliever.

Reinvest in Latin America.

Sign a 2B that won't cost much.   Playing Cowart at 2B would be a waste of a great throwing arm.

Sign a decent LF who wouldn't cost a 2nd round pick.

Let Street mentor Bedrosian, Middleton, Alcantara, D. Guerra, Morin, and Ramirez.

Tell Cron to work hard on 1B defense.

Tell Pujols he is permanent DH from now on.

Stay with Bandy and Perez for the next two seasons.   Then see if Ward supplants Perez.

Wait until after 2018 to truly go back into FA.   By then, Pujols' salary (3 years for $87 million) is the only major issue.

Maybe contend in 2018, but expect it in 2019.

 

Nothing wrong with that plan, but I don't see how it does much to point us towards contention.

[Ohtaniland]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Just for gits and shiggles, let's play make-believe. How could the Angels actually return to contention next year? By "contention" I mean a team that, as a baseline, should win 85+ games, with a solid chance of 90 or more. I'm not talking 95+ win dominance.

First off, it is worth noting that the Pythagorean record is actually solidly better than their actual record, 58-67 vs. 52-73. In other words, with a bit better luck they're just bad this year and not godawful. So we start there.

Well, looking at who the Angels have, who is injured, and who is leaving and unlikely to return, the main holes on the team are: 2B, LF, SP, and to a slightly lesser extent, RP. Every other position in the lineup is "good enough" to be part of a contending team, if 2B and LF are improved. To do that, the Angels would have to sign an outfielder who is at least good, so one of Cespedes, Desmond, Reddick, Saunders, maybe Fowler, Rasmus, Bautista, Trumbo, or Beltran. The only good starting 2B available is Neil Walker.

As for the rotation, among current starts the only one we can assume will be good next year is Shoemaker. Richards, Meyer, and Skaggs are questionable, and Nolasco is a #5. Even if we cross our fingers on this one and hope that one or two of the three question marks turns out reasonably well, to contend the Angels need at least one good starter--and there really isn't much available. Probably the best free agent is Jeremy Hellickson, who isn't more than a #3. After that you have players like Cashner, Fister, Hill, Anderson, Latos, Nova, etc. A really weak class.

With the bullpen, there are three top tier closers available: Jensen, Chapman, and Melancon, and then a deep field of solid to good relievers. The Angels have some workable players but probably need a couple plus relievers to contend. They could make up for an average-at-best rotation with a kick-ass bullpen, so let's say they need one of the big three. Jensen will be the most expensive and also require a draft pick, so let's assume one of the other two.

Then you have:

3B Escobar

2B Walker

CF Trout

LF Cespedes

DH Pujols

RF Calhoun

1B Cron

C Bandy

SS Simmons

All of a sudden you have a pretty good, even very good, lineup. But it costs $40-50 million a year ($25-30m for Cespedes, $15-20m for Walker). Maybe save $5m a year and replace Cespedes with Desmond or Reddick, or a bit more with Fowler, etc, but the offensive weight goes down.

Rotation: Richards, Shoemaker, Hellickson, Meyer/Skaggs, Nolasco

Hmm...Still not very sexy, and costing $15+m a year more. But we've got to cut corners somewhere.

Bullpen: Melancon/Chapman, Street, Bedrosian, D Guerra, Alvarez, Morin, etc

Should be very good, although not sure Huston would accept it. But I'm guessing he'd be happier with a ring than without.

So the above team gets you into contention, but you're spending maybe around $80 million a year this offseason--about double what is coming off payroll. You could even maybe replace Cespedes with one of the lesser players and sign a good middle reliever instead of a top tier closer and save a bit, but you're still going to need to spend $60-70m a year.

What about a bargain approach? The Angels could not sign Walker and go with what they have at 2B, and go after a Reddick or Desmond and still improve the offense. $20m a year. They still need a starter, but maybe Fister or Anderson will do. Maybe. Still $15m a year, probably. And then nickel-and-dime the bullpen...you could probably improve the team by spending not much more than the $40 surplus, but then you're talking more of an 80-win base with 85 wins being hopeful.

Even then the Angels need some luck as far as the rotation is concerned. At least one of Richards, Skaggs, and Meyer has to qualify as a "pleasant surprise," and probably two of them need to be at least decent.

Anyhow, the point of this wasn't to make recommendations, but to give a sense of what it would take to get the Angels back into being taken seriously. By my quick-and-dirty calculations, they would need to spend around $80 million per yer to be probable contenders, $50-60 million to be possible contenders, and $40-45 million or so to have a vague squinting-just-right (aka Chuck-esque rosy-glasses) chance.

Oh yeah, and some luck.

 

How does this package shake out in regards to the luxury tax?

[ten ocho recon scout]

I agree with rhose who say we should focus on 18, not 17. With that said, do the people we can sign this winter (or aquire in trade) cover both? 

The LF options available this year in guys like reddick, fowler, etc arent perfect but are huge improvements. The importsnt thing is that they would be long term solutions (unless they do what the last few big money signings did). I think the real question is do we have anything in the system already that projects to take over LF and 2B in the next 2 years?

If not, its beltre all over again as far as i see it. Dont just look at the player, look at the alternatives...if we don have in house options anytime soon, fix the problem instead of dicking around with it for a few years.

[totdprods]

I think a vast majority of us agree that we should look towards 2018, not '17.

This is just a what you'd do if Arte said 'Here, buy/trade what you need to make us compete next year' exercise. No need to debate the 'should we do this?' aspect.

[kevinb]

That all sounds nice and good but we are not over paying for Chapman or Melancon the Yankees Cubs Botox Dodgers all have more cash than the Angels and no shot in hell the Angels are going to over pay 15 mil or more for relief pitchers over them. Richards is a guess if he will be back and from the looks of it so is Skaggs. Who the heck knows what Meyer will do. Again an if. Nolasco is the only one that you have in the rotation that we know for sure he is going to be bad. The rest are ehh maybe they will be good maybe they will be bad. Hell Shoemaker is an if as well. This team is wishing upon a shooting star with all of those guys, and if you don't have a rotation that can match up with other teams then theres really no point even if we have the greatest offense in the world, which we won't have. 

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I think a vast majority of us agree that we should look towards 2018, not '17.

This is just a what you'd do if Arte said 'Here, buy/trade what you need to make us compete next year' exercise. No need to debate the 'should we do this?' aspect.

You're right, we should be looking at 2018 and beyond but you start the process in 2017. Actually, Eppler has started the process as we speak. 

This team is filled with a lot of good pieces to build around and one great one. There's no point in sitting idle. 

[Stradling]

46 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

That all sounds nice and good but we are not over paying for Chapman or Melancon the Yankees Cubs Botox Dodgers all have more cash than the Angels and no shot in hell the Angels are going to over pay 15 mil or more for relief pitchers over them. Richards is a guess if he will be back and from the looks of it so is Skaggs. Who the heck knows what Meyer will do. Again an if. Nolasco is the only one that you have in the rotation that we know for sure he is going to be bad. The rest are ehh maybe they will be good maybe they will be bad. Hell Shoemaker is an if as well. This team is wishing upon a shooting star with all of those guys, and if you don't have a rotation that can match up with other teams then theres really no point even if we have the greatest offense in the world, which we won't have. 

You suck at this thread. 

[Stradling]

Ok, so if Arte opened the checkbook, how would I spend the money to make them competitive and an eye on the future?  I would sign Desmond to play left field and leadoff.  I would sign Neil Walker to play 2nd base.  I would then sign Chapman to close down the 9th and win games we are supposed to win.  I would then sign a Fister type and hope Richards is healthy.  I would trade Escobar and get the best arm I can get for him.  I would then look to sign a guy like Rajai Davis to be our 4th outfielder, pinch runner.  I would sign a veteran middle infielder for bench depth that can run a little.  I would start Bandy 110 games at catcher.  I would pitch Cam in the 8th, Street in the 7th.  It would be nice to have a lefty that could get lefties out in the pen.  

Now if that is too many moves (and it is) then sign Desmond and put him at 2nd, move Escobar to left, have Cowart play third.  Still sign, Chapman, Fister type, Davis.  

[greginpsca]

If we are going to contend, we need to shore up pitching and defense. The teams trade bait of position players would be 1. Escobar, 2. Cron 3. Perez. I think only Escobar and Cron could bring back some decent arms.   Improving the defense would have us playing Cowart @3rd, Pennington/ Petit @ 2nd [upgrade over Gia]. If Perez gets dealt, we need a backup catcher[ preferably a lh hitter], and a lf'er  [ i am liking Buss]. Those spots could be filled inexpensively.Then use all the money saved from Weaver and Wilson to fill up the pitching. And the team could easily stay under the tax. I just hate having poor defenders costing us runs[ cough, Escobar, Marte ].

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok, so if Arte opened the checkbook, how would I spend the money to make them competitive and an eye on the future?  I would sign Desmond to play left field and leadoff.  I would sign Neil Walker to play 2nd base.  I would then sign Chapman to close down the 9th and win games we are supposed to win.  I would then sign a Fister type and hope Richards is healthy.  I would trade Escobar and get the best arm I can get for him.  I would then look to sign a guy like Rajai Davis to be our 4th outfielder, pinch runner.  I would sign a veteran middle infielder for bench depth that can run a little.  I would start Bandy 110 games at catcher.  I would pitch Cam in the 8th, Street in the 7th.  It would be nice to have a lefty that could get lefties out in the pen.  

Now if that is too many moves (and it is) then sign Desmond and put him at 2nd, move Escobar to left, have Cowart play third.  Still sign, Chapman, Fister type, Davis.  

So add about $75m annually and lose 2nd, 3rd, and maybe 4th round picks for Desmond, maybe Walker, and maybe Fister?

Not sure if qualifying offers works like that or not, so sort of asking. I know we'd at least lose the 2nd round pick.