2016 Trade Candidate: Hector Santiago

[ettin]

7 minutes ago, Lou said:

Understood.  However, if SF is targeting guys like Braun and Chapman, they're not going fret over the comparative pittance due to a player like Santiago 

Agreed but they are creeping up on the Luxury Tax Threshold if I'm not mistaken if they bring in either one of them and that pittance might actually make a difference in staying under but point taken yes a team like San Francisco won't be impacted as much by it. I keep thinking about the Royals and the Pirates when I think of these examples and that is probably why I included payroll absorption a little too much.

[AngelsLakersFan]

17 hours ago, ettin said:

Although generally I agree that the hypothetical trade scenarios for players like Benintendi and Profar  are probably a bigger stretch and much less likely I'd also point out that some smaller market teams might like a trade partner like the Angels that will absorb cash in a deal because that will allow that team to make further upgrades in other areas without having too many financial restrictions. Additionally as a GM if you could plug two or more holes by only sacrificing one better prospect that might have appeal for maintaining the integrity of the rest of your farm system.

Again though I do agree that in a vacuum those trades are more remote than some of the others I list but there are financial implications with smaller teams (or those larger ones that are up against their max payroll) and the Angels are in a position where they might have to sell a trade on the idea of quantity over quality.

I agree with the strategy, but I don't think money is all that big of a deal in MLB these days. Every team is flush with cash and there is nothing to spend it on. Every team is "in it" with the second wild card so organizations want talent and are willing to pay for it. We aren't going to see many teams give up talent to save a few million bucks because there are few ways to reinvest it at this point.

[Chuck]

4 hours ago, ksangel said:

Angels trade LHP Hector Santiago, 3B Yunel Escobar, and C Geovany Soto to the Giants in exchange for AA 2B Christian Arroyo, AA LHP Andrew Suarez, and AA RHR Ray Black

- Angels absorb Santiago’s, Escobar’s, and Soto’s remaining $2.5MM, $2.7MM, and $1.4MM 2016 salaries

- Arroyo, the Giants #1 prospect, could best be described as the ‘Kole Calhoun’ of middle infielders meaning he does everything above average but nothing spectacularly well

- Suarez is a solid left-handed starter with good control and mid rotation upside

- Black is a flame throwing right-handed reliever with elite closer written all over him

 

 

 

 

The Giants will NEVER trade Christian Arroyo...he's not average but an elite bat with developing defensive skills at 2B and 3B (no longer at SS).  I live in Richmond, Va. (home of Giants AA team) and have watched his development this year.  Dream on if you'd think they'd trade him for both Santiago and Escobar. 

 

And I don't get why anyone wants Jarred Parker....he's failed time and again to get a foot hold at the major league level...if you think Cron looks lost at the plate and K's a lot...just trade for Parker.

 

Santiago has to be kept or the Angels have ZERO pitching to replace him. 

Christian Arroyo is a good prospect, but there's nothing exciting about his game offensively. I'd take him for Escobar, if Parker is included. .270/.309/.375 with 2 HR is not very inspiring. He reminds me a lot of Jose Rondon, with a little more pop, (but not much), but less speed.

Also, Parker does not look lost at the plate. He's been just fine in his brief at bats in the big leagues. 

.288/.381/.548 with 11 HR in just 146 at bats. 

Last season between AAA and w/ the Giants he hit 29 HR, with 67 walks. 

I do not mind the strikeouts when he's supplying a ton of power and takes the occasional walk. 

[Lou]

1 hour ago, ettin said:

Agreed but they are creeping up on the Luxury Tax Threshold if I'm not mistaken if they bring in either one of them and that pittance might actually make a difference in staying under but point taken yes a team like San Francisco won't be impacted as much by it. I keep thinking about the Royals and the Pirates when I think of these examples and that is probably why I included payroll absorption a little too much.

Got it 

For the record, SF has stated previously they would be willing to go over the  threshold if it helped them win another  title. They proved this by going after Greinke and one of either Cespedes or Upton.

[Angel Oracle]

Four of his past 5 starts have been really solid.   That will help the trade value to increase.

[Homebrewer]

4 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Four of his past 5 starts have been really solid.   That will help the trade value to increase.

Only impulse shoppers like Arte's LAAngels would do something stupid, like letting themselves be influenced by 4 or 5 recent starts.

[Angel Oracle]

41 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Only impulse shoppers like Arte's LAAngels would do something stupid, like letting themselves be influenced by 4 or 5 recent starts.

Good point, but there is always hope (even faint at that).

[Chris]

With Richards, Heaney, Weaver, and Wilson all probably gone in 2017 we have to cobble together some semblance of a rotation.

How about:  Santiago - Shoemaker - Tropeano - Skaggs - Smith or veteran (FA/Trade)

It's a weak FA market.  So our rotation is already looking weak going into next season.

Subtracting Santiago or Shoemaker makes it that much weaker.  A couple years ago the Red Sox traded some starters and they are still trying to piece a rotation back together again..

 

 

 

[stormngt]

It will be difficult to compete in 2018 without Richards.  So what difference does 1 more year of Santiago make?  I can see the argument for Shoe because he is under longer club control but not Santiago.  The problem is that I done see Shoe continuing with his transformation.  Sell both if you can get players that can help you compete in 2018.

[totdprods]

Think only way they move Santiago is if they either are blown away with a huge offer, or if they receive a good young MLB-ready SP for Escobar, which isn't likely. I'd rather they target a bat there anyway,

They aren't going to throw in the flag for '17, and there simply isn't enough SP options here to maintain a rotation next season without him. 

We may receive less in return for Hector and Yunel if we hold onto them until next year, but I think it's still an option.

[WeatherWonk]

Well written article, thanks for that.

No doubt about it, Santiago and Escobar must go, since we have no 2017 future to speak of, anyway.

Escobar, particularly, has brought his stock way up in the last couple weeks. Dude is hitting .350 over his last 30 games.

We finally find a decent leadoff hitter........and we are tanking. What a frustrating organization this is, to be a fan of.

[eligrba]

1 hour ago, WeatherWonk said:

Well written article, thanks for that.

No doubt about it, Santiago and Escobar must go, since we have no 2017 future to speak of, anyway.

Escobar, particularly, has brought his stock way up in the last couple weeks. Dude is hitting .350 over his last 30 games.

We finally find a decent leadoff hitter........and we are tanking. What a frustrating organization this is, to be a fan of.

Should have seen the seventies.

[ksangel]

20 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Christian Arroyo is a good prospect, but there's nothing exciting about his game offensively. I'd take him for Escobar, if Parker is included. .270/.309/.375 with 2 HR is not very inspiring. He reminds me a lot of Jose Rondon, with a little more pop, (but not much), but less speed.

Also, Parker does not look lost at the plate. He's been just fine in his brief at bats in the big leagues. 

.288/.381/.548 with 11 HR in just 146 at bats. 

Last season between AAA and w/ the Giants he hit 29 HR, with 67 walks. 

I do not mind the strikeouts when he's supplying a ton of power and takes the occasional walk. 

Arroyo is an elite bat...he's 3.5 years younger than the AA average age and 2.5 years younger than any Angel at AA (Caleb Adams)  so yes his average should be a little lower at this stage of his development.  He hit .304/.344/..459/.803 at A+ last year and .333 at A the year before.  He's gained 30 pounds of muscle and is now 6'-2" 215lbs.  But reading stats doesn't tell the whole picture.  He makes solid contact with each at bat - a line drive machine and has very advanced plate awareness.  He has good speed...not great - but good and he hustles his butt off on every play whether fielding or running.  Won't be surprised if he's their 3B or LF sometime next year or in 2018 considering Panik and Crawford are at SS and 2B. 

Again, the Giants won't trade him...that's why they have a home grown infield.  They draft smart and develop/keep their top prospects. 

We can debate Parker all day.  Yes, he does have power but do the Angels need another HR hitter?  Trout, Pujols and Cron supply the power and they're not going anywhere - especially Trout and Pujols and with Cron hitting better he won't be either.  Parker strikes out around 28-30% of the time.  Angel fans rail about Cron and he only K's about 16% this year and in the minors was around 13-15%.  A LF who grind out AB's and gets on base would be preferable.  Parkers AAA stats - in the same league as the Bees - this year align with Nick Buss and Cal Towey's with Parker having a bit higher OPS and SLG because of HR's.    

[Angel Oracle]

Halos, watch the Giants org, and LEARN!

[Troll Daddy]

I'm not counting on Richards or Heaney for 2018. Angels needs to move forward without them for now. 

 

If Richards doesn't need TJ ... then that changes things for 2017. 

Chasing prospects for good talent can be risky business. 

Puzzled why some of you are giving up on 2017 . Is our division that good that we can't compete with the right influx of players? 

[ksangel]

56 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Halos, watch the Giants org, and LEARN!

Watching the Richmond Squirrels (SF's AA team) I agree. 

Compare that the Angels drafted Taylor Ward with 24th pick in first round of 2015 and passed on 1B Chris Shaw (31st pick by Giants and now a top 75 prospect and at AA a year out of college for the Giants).  Shaw signed for $1.4 and Ward for $1.65 so it wasn't a money issue.

Shaw may duplicate Cron (1B only with power - except he's bats left and is far more athletic) but will Ward pan out???  Or is he another Hank Conger / Jeff Mathis?

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, ksangel said:

Watching the Richmond Squirrels (SF's AA team) I agree. 

Compare that the Angels drafted Taylor Ward with 24th pick in first round of 2015 and passed on 1B Chris Shaw (31st pick by Giants and now a top 75 prospect and at AA a year out of college for the Giants).  Shaw signed for $1.4 and Ward for $1.65 so it wasn't a money issue.

Shaw may duplicate Cron (1B only with power - except he's bats left and is far more athletic) but will Ward pan out???  Or is he another Hank Conger / Jeff Mathis?

Hank got us Tropeano and Perez.  Don't disrespect him too much 

[AngelsFanSince86]

22 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

Only impulse shoppers like Arte's LAAngels would do something stupid, like letting themselves be influenced by 4 or 5 recent starts.

Only impulse shoppers will be influenced by the 5 or 6 starts that has made his season look bad. You take away that 5 game stretch he had and the guy has an ERA hovering in the mid 3's similar to his career.  Hector ranks 72 among 143 qualified starters in ERA since 2013.  Not many teams have the Mets rotation (which is currently falling apart from injuries) or the Indians rotation.  Santiago would by the 3rd best starter on many rotations and 3rd or 4th best starter on almost all rotations.  This is why quality pitching has become so ridiculously expensive. Teams aren't going to use that 5 game sample to judge him just like they won't use only the most recent 5 game sample.  However, the most recent sample at least gives the other teams some satisfaction that he still is capable of being a reliable starter this season, is therefore not a total reclamtion project, and will thus this stretch will likely increase his trade value.

[AngelsLakersFan]

51 minutes ago, AngelsFanSince86 said:

Only impulse shoppers will be influenced by the 5 or 6 starts that has made his season look bad. You take away that 5 game stretch he had and the guy has an ERA hovering in the mid 3's similar to his career.  Hector ranks 72 among 143 qualified starters in ERA since 2013.  Not many teams have the Mets rotation (which is currently falling apart from injuries) or the Indians rotation.  Santiago would by the 3rd best starter on many rotations and 3rd or 4th best starter on almost all rotations.  This is why quality pitching has become so ridiculously expensive. Teams aren't going to use that 5 game sample to judge him just like they won't use only the most recent 5 game sample.  However, the most recent sample at least gives the other teams some satisfaction that he still is capable of being a reliable starter this season, is therefore not a total reclamtion project, and will thus this stretch will likely increase his trade value.

Hector has a 4.58 era / 5.14 fip / 5.09 xfip

Last year he had a 3.59 era / 4.77 fip / 5.00 xfip

His career numbers are a little better but they include his time out of the bullpen, where everyone pitches better. This view of Santiago as a quality starting pitcher is not based in reality.

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, AngelsFanSince86 said:

Only impulse shoppers will be influenced by the 5 or 6 starts that has made his season look bad. You take away that 5 game stretch he had and the guy has an ERA hovering in the mid 3's similar to his career.  Hector ranks 72 among 143 qualified starters in ERA since 2013.  Not many teams have the Mets rotation (which is currently falling apart from injuries) or the Indians rotation.  Santiago would by the 3rd best starter on many rotations and 3rd or 4th best starter on almost all rotations.  This is why quality pitching has become so ridiculously expensive. Teams aren't going to use that 5 game sample to judge him just like they won't use only the most recent 5 game sample.  However, the most recent sample at least gives the other teams some satisfaction that he still is capable of being a reliable starter this season, is therefore not a total reclamtion project, and will thus this stretch will likely increase his trade value.

Careful I was barbecued for suggesting you look at stats without the outliers.

[WeatherWonk]

10 hours ago, eligrba said:

Should have seen the seventies.

I remember them well. They werent as frustrating because our expectations were so low.

[WeatherWonk]

19 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

I'm not counting on Richards or Heaney for 2018. Angels needs to move forward without them for now. 

 

If Richards doesn't need TJ ... then that changes things for 2017. 

Chasing prospects for good talent can be risky business. 

Puzzled why some of you are giving up on 2017 . Is our division that good that we can't compete with the right influx of players? 

You're correct that our division isn't that tough. My pessimism stems from how many good, young players the Astros and Rangers have. They are maturing and may only get better.

If Richards somehow manages to make it back in 2017 w/o TJ surgery, I can't see him throwing with the velocity he once had. He will probably become a nibbler like Wilson. Just wonderful.

What's the latest on Skaggs? Tropeano's first outing was against the weak hitting Rays. Not indicative. I suppose if these two REALLY come around before the trading deadline (a real longshot for Skaggs), we could consider them replacements for Wilson and Weaver.

Then, we would need for Bedrosian and/or Rasmus and/or Guerra and or Mahle and/or Morin to pitch like Smith and Street in something close to their prime. I think Street IS signed for next year but he is becoming ineffective.

All those POTENTIAL positives could change my outlook on 2017. But I dont think they are all probable.

2017 still looks like a bust to me. 

Unexpectedly, I have become more interested in retaining Weaver, if the price is right. I really am impressed at what he is accomplishing with basically no fastball. His control and movement are really fun to watch. He will make a mistake or two that will get whacked, but that happens to most back-of-the-order starters.

[totdprods]

I think the FO is fully aware 2017 is a bust but will shy away from giving any indication that they don't intend on competing. Also believe they had a very similar stance on this year and it's playoff hopes.

They don't want to publicly acknowledge those concerns so they can try and hold onto the fans and put on a front for stadium negotiations and organizational pride. 

Because of that, I can definitely see them holding onto both Escobar and Santiago unless they really get an offer that bowls them over. Also because of that, we will see them do all they can to address the farm without really harming the big league club's make-up. 

[ettin]

Part of the reason I enjoy researching and writing up these organizational moves/changes is because I like to see what is possible rather than dwell on the teams poor standings.

The premise of this series is based on the likely and probable outcome that Richards and Heaney won't return to the rotation until 2018 (and that is true now of the latter). Based on that thought my premise is to retool the team for that year and beyond. It doesn't mean that the Angels can't win in 2017 but we shouldn't make hasty or ill-advised decisions trying to be successful next season simply to please the fan base. There is a very real possibility that if the Angels are able to execute a series of trades right now they could bring in pieces that could contribute to a more successful 2017 season even though we don't have Richards and Heaney in the rotation. Let me give you an example.

Let's say the Angels can and are able to trade Yunel Escobar, Hector Santiago, Huston Street, Joe Smith, Fernando Salas, and Geovany Soto right now at the trade deadline. Hypothetically lets say the following transactions take place:

• Angels trade Yunel Escobar, Geovany Soto, and Fernando Salas to the Giants for AA 2B Christian Arroyo, AA LHP Andrew Suarez, and AA RHR Chase Johnson
• Angels trade Hector Santiago to the Red Sox for AA LHP Jalen Beeks and AAA RHR Kyle Martin
• Angels trade Huston Street to the Rangers for AA OF Ryan Cordell and AA RHP Luis Ortiz
• Angels trade Joe Smith to the Mariners for AAA LHR Paul Fry

These trades are probably within the realm of reality for the Angels. Although not all of these pieces will be ready to plug into the lineup immediately all of them can potentially fit into a 2017 Angels team and most certainly into an Angels 2018 squad.

The 2017 Angels squad would then be the following:

SP Tyler Skaggs

SP Nick Tropeano

SP Matt Shoemaker

SP ????????

SP ????????

RP Cam Bedrosian (closer)

RP Paul Fry (setup)

RP Deolis Guerra (setup)

RP Mike Morin

RP Jose Alvarez

RP Kyle Martin

RP Cory Rasmus (long relief)

C Free Agent or Carlos Perez/Jett Bandy

1B/DH C.J. Cron/Albert Pujols

2B Johnny Giavotella, Free Agent, or by mid-year 2017 Christian Arroyo

SS Andrelton Simmons

3B Free Agent or Kaleb Cowart

LF Daniel Nava, Free Agent, or by mid-year 2017 Ryan Cordell

CF Mike Trout

RF Kole Calhoun

Bench Carlos Perez/Jett Bandy, Cliff Pennington, Craig Gentry

2017 Pitching and Position Depth includes AA 2B Christian Arroyo, AA OF Ryan Cordell, AA LHP Andrew Suarez, AAA LHP Nate Smith, AA RHR Chase Johnson, AA LHP Jalen Beeks, AA LHP Luis Ortiz, AA LHR Greg Mahle, AAA 1B Ji-Man Choi, AAA OF Todd Cunningham, AAA OF Rafael Ortega, AAA INF Rey Navarro, AAA 3B Jefry Marte, AA RHP Victor Alcantara, and AAA RHP A.J. Achter

So there are some pluses and minuses here with this example.

The first most glaring one is that we have to fill two rotation spots. Certainly the Angels could use some of the pitching prospect depth like Suarez, Smith, Beeks, and Ortiz but that would also damage our depth. What the Angels could simply do here is pick up a couple of free agents on one year deals or bring in something more long term but they don't have to spend a lot if they don't want too. Our rotation, as you can see, is the crux of our 2017 problem.

Relief wise the names I inserted present a young but promising relief corps. However if the Angels wanted to be like the 2016 Yankees they could sign Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen OR BOTH to specific 4-5 year contracts that have an opt out after 2017. By signing such a deal both Chapman and Jansen get long term security but if they pitch well in 2017 they can opt out and pick up more money in free agency. The advantage for the Angels in such a structured contract is that if they are performing well the Angels can trade them at the deadline if they are out of the race in 2017 likely picking up a really high quality prospect or two to further their retooling efforts in 2018. There is also the thought that if the Angels are in the playoff race a closer like Chapman or Jansen would be very valuable to their chances of winning in 2017. In the worst case scenario we have one or both of these pitchers long term over Trout's remaining controllable years (Doc suggested this idea based off of his reliever research he did and he suggested Jansen as the primary target and I agree).

In terms of position players the Angels could start playing their new additions (Arroyo at 2B and Cordell in LF) and plug Cowart in at 3B or could sign short-term deals with free agents. Martin Prado for 2B or 3B would make a lot of sense for instance. Michael Saunders in LF would be a good offensive addition although he will likely sign a longer term deal after his 2016 season.

An infield of Cron, Prado, Simmons and Cowart would be an overall good defensive unit although offense might suffer. An outfield of Saunders, Trout and Calhoun would be a good offensive unit and a pretty good defensive unit too.

The point is that 2017 isn't a lost season but the rotation issues will be the primary driver of whether or not the Angels succeed. If the Angels could pick up one or two pitchers on short deals like Hellickson or Nova that would be a big plus but is unlikely. The Angels will probably end up signing rental starters which may include, believe it or not, Jered Weaver, Jhoulys Chacin and Tim Lincecum.

[disarcina]

ETTIN -- not sure about those trades -- sounds as good as any -- but the point about aiming for 2018 sure makes a lot of sense.

I don't see this team 'turning around' by 2017.

as for Weaver -- I think he might be tough to deal -- he's been fairly inconsistent this year and last -- has had some very good starts, though.

But he did give the Halos a 'Hometown" discount when he signed the extension - can still fill a spot in the rotation -- albeit now number four or five.

I think he's worth more to the Halos here than anything the Angels could get in return.

The kind of trades we need to make are the of the nature ETTIN points out above although that SF Giants trade proposal looks fairly aggressive from the Halos end. The Giants could use a 3B with Duffy out -- don't think they need a back up catcher but a rental third catcher for September stretch not a bad idea if they want to rest Posey a bit. SF really needs a starter at the back end of their rotation........Santiago could be in the mix for that. Be hard to pry several top prospects from SF.........but now is the time -- deadline time stretch run deals usually provide sellers with the best return.......much may depend on what the Dodgers do - if they make some deadline moves, SF Giants may feel they have to counter with a deal or two of their own.......SP and 3B.  Giants pen is pretty good.