Fangraphs Starting Rotation Rankings - Angels #12

[Hollyw00d]

I'll take the pitcher who gives you the best chance to win

Intangibles don't win games. Mental toughness and "badassery" doesn't win games. Talent and ability does

Edited April 1, 2015 by Hollyw00d

[Hollyw00d]

While I agree with the ranking of 12th best in baseball, the Weaver is overpaid nonsense needs to stop.  Dude is a gamer and had a 3.59 era last year and is only 32.  His career era is 3.28 and like it's already been mentioned, turned down around 40 million to stay with the Angels.  I hope he is resigned and retires an Angel.

3.59 era isn't very good pitching in Anaheim. League average last season was 4.1

He also gave up almost 30 home runs.

[QuinlansMinion]

Id be willing to bet with anyone here Weaver has a better season this year than he did last year.  Any takers?

[DW711]

A staff with:

 

Gray

Kazmir

Pomeranz

Hahn

Graveman

--------------

Chavez

Parker

Griffin

 

can't make the top 15?

[tdawg87]

I'll take the pitcher who will win the game.  Which is what matters.  You can rate him how you wish.

 

At home? Yeah sure. On the road? Give me literally anyone else.

[Jay]

I think #12 is generous

[Second Base]

A staff with:

 

Gray

Kazmir

Pomeranz

Hahn

Graveman

--------------

Chavez

Parker

Griffin

 

can't make the top 15?

 

I'm with you on this one.  I think the entire AL West is being overlooked in this article.  It's awfully hard to rank the Mariners that low when they have the second best pitcher in baseball, followed up by prospects like Paxton and Walker, and rounded out by Iwakuma, who's hoping his suckiness from last year doesn't signal the end. 

 

The Angels, just not sure why anyone would be down on a team that have Richards and Shoemaker headlining it.  Weaver isn't an ace anymore but he's still above average.  Santiago has had an ERA under 4 every year in the majors and Wilson is just as likely to be a #3 starter as he is a #5. 

 

The A's, Gray, Pomeranz and Hahn are all fantastic mid rotation options.  Kazmir is more than a little shaky but they have the depth with Chavez and maybe later Griffin/Parker to field an elite staff.  

 

Even the Astros have a couple of starters who were a combination of lucky and not horrible last year. Outside of the NL West, the AL West has the best pitching in baseball. 

[DW711]

The Mariners at eight followed by the Yanks is a joke.

 

Felix and Iwakuma (maybe Paxton/Walker) are better than Sabathia. If Eovaldi ended up being their best pitcher..i wouldn't be THAT surprised.

[halomatt]

FanGraphs hates the Angels. I've got them down at 7th, but I also have the Padres 3rd and M's 4th.

It all comes down to not correctly valuing Richards, Shoemaker or even Santiago for that matter. Richards is one of ten best pitchers in baseball, Shoemaker isn't a fluke he's a legit #3, Santiago posted an ERA at 3.30 after his promotion from AAA that spanned across most of the season.

If all you're going to talk about is how much Wilson and Weav make and fail to acknowledge their prior success or specify the Angels wealth of depth, the clearly you have an agenda.

Is their rotation elite? No. But Richards matches up with just about anybody, Shoe can outpitch most teams #2 starter, Weav and Wilson may be backend in quality but they'll still deliver upwards of 200 innings each. Not to mention guys like Heaney, Tropeano and Rucinski waiting for their shot and Newcomb coming on strong.

In the second paragraph, you write, "It all comes down to not correctly valuing Richards, Shoemaker or even Santiago for that matter. Richards is one of ten best pitchers in baseball, Shoemaker isn't a fluke he's a legit #3, Santiago posted an ERA at 3.30 after his promotion from AAA..."

 

Then, in the third paragraph, you state that the source of the article is not acknowledging Weaver's and Wilson's prior success.  I'm not sure I follow your logic here.  In one comparison, you seem to believe prior success should be factored, but in the case of Richards, Shoemaker and Santiago, you appear to discount that logic and affirm that they are incredibly undervalued and prior success be damned. 

 

I'm not sure that one can have it both ways.  The logic train seems to take a departure.  Either we use prior success in all cases or discount it completely.  I honestly don't know what Richards, et. al. will do this year.  I'd like to believe that they wil find the same success, but until I see a "track record", I think the jury is still out.  Thus the #12 rating.

Edited April 1, 2015 by halomatt

[Oz27]

These threads are always such fun. I always come in to read unfathomable nonsense, such as "FanGraphs hates the Angels". Props to other fine contributions such as "bunch of junk article" and "screw all the doubters".

 

As for whether Weaver is overpaid, we're going to end up paying nearly $20 mil for someone this year who in a best case scenario is a 3.5 WAR pitcher but is probably actually quite a bit worse than that. I'm not in any way criticizing the contract, it was the right thing to do. But at the back end of it, like many players, he is without the slightest shadow of a doubt overpaid.

 

It's worth noting that projection systems are always going to be quite pessimistic about guys like Shoemaker, whose success last year was not seen as likely based on his previous numbers. The same goes with Richards to some degree. There's a reason for that - many guys have one good season then fall back into mediocrity. So the Angels rotation could be quite a bit better than raw statistical projections expect it to be. However, there's also every chance that it isn't.

Edited April 1, 2015 by Oz27

[halomatt]

These threads are always such fun. I always come in to read unfathomable nonsense, such as "FanGraphs hates the Angels". Props to other fine contributions such as "bunch of junk article" and "screw all the doubters".

 

As for whether Weaver is overpaid, we're going to end up paying nearly $20 mil for someone this year who in a best case scenario is a 3.5 WAR pitcher but is probably actually quite a bit worse than that. I'm not in any way criticizing the contract, it was the right thing to do. But at the back end of it, like many players, he is without the slightest shadow of a doubt overpaid.

 

It's worth noting that projection systems are always going to be quite pessimistic about guys like Shoemaker, whose success last year was not seen as likely based on his previous numbers. The same goes with Richards to some degree. There's a reason for that - many guys have one good season then fall back into mediocrity. So the Angels rotation could be quite a bit better than raw statistical projections expect it to be. However, there's also every chance that it isn't.

I absolutely agree with you. In the bigger picture, they are ALL overpaid.  In baseball, it's the cost of doing business.  Weaver is what he is, warts and all.  At the very least, he's managed to stay pretty healthy and keeps his team in the game most nights. The rest is white noise. 

 

Now, Pay for Lack of Performance of Any Kind?  That's a slightly different story. 

[Ohtaniland]

F'n Butcher!

[ksangel]

"Props to other fine contributions such as "bunch of junk article" and "screw all the doubters".

 

And yes Oz27 your response was quite erudite.

 

Weaver is 131-69 life time.  The five pitchers I mentioned are a combined 143-155.  None of them have sniffed the air that Weaver has pitched in. 

 

To rank each of the five with a higher WAR just shows the falicy of WAR. 

 

Jason Hammel is Weavers age, is 59-70 lifetime and his WAR is 1.8 and Weavers 1.5??? 

 

Yeah, bunch of junk was too kind actually. 

[tdawg87]

Yeah see, the problem is you are actually using pitcher wins to support your argument.

[Blarg]

Weaver wouldn't be the same pitcher if he didn't pitch in Anaheim. In Weaver's case, stats do tell the entire story.

 

If you think park factor is behind Weaver's performance then explain why his OPS is .800 and career ERA is 4.66 at Safeco Field , one of the best pitcher parks. It suppresses fly balls better than Angels stadium by a long shot and Weaver is a fly ball pitcher. His ERA in Oakland (3.47) (another extreme pitchers park) is also almost a full point higher than Anaheim (2.66).

Edited April 2, 2015 by notti

[Docwaukee]

If you think park factor is behind Weaver's performance then explain why his OPS is .800 and career ERA is 4.66 at Safeco Field , one of the best pitcher parks. It suppresses fly balls better than Angels stadium by a long shot and Weaver is a fly ball pitcher. His ERA in Oakland (3.47) (another extreme pitchers park) is also almost a full point higher than Anaheim (2.66).

rockpile 

[tdawg87]

He didn't mention anything about park factor. Weaver sucks on the road. The stats support that. It's probably more of a mental thing than anything else.

[eaterfan]

It's probably a lot of a combination of things:

1. Pitchers generally are more comfortable at home. Know how to work the mound, etc.

2. Small sample sizes at any given stadium. Even after 4 starts a year at Oakland or Seattle about 8 years is a full season of data. One year isn't always the best sample and that's especially true because no one is the same player they were 8 seasons ago.

3. Just because a stadium is hitter or pitcher friendly doesn't mean it doesn't play differently for different handed hitters and pitchers. NYY benefits lefty hitters and lefty pitchers for example.

[Hollyw00d]

"Props to other fine contributions such as "bunch of junk article" and "screw all the doubters".

 

And yes Oz27 your response was quite erudite.

 

Weaver is 131-69 life time.  The five pitchers I mentioned are a combined 143-155.  None of them have sniffed the air that Weaver has pitched in. 

 

To rank each of the five with a higher WAR just shows the falicy of WAR. 

 

Jason Hammel is Weavers age, is 59-70 lifetime and his WAR is 1.8 and Weavers 1.5??? 

 

Yeah, bunch of junk was too kind actually.

Win loss record is almost meaningless

[ten ocho recon scout]

Weaver wouldn't be the same pitcher if he didn't pitch in Anaheim. In Weaver's case, stats do tell the entire story.

i think what hes getting at is that if weaver had left via FA, he would likely have gotten more money

[Blarg]

He didn't mention anything about park factor. Weaver sucks on the road. The stats support that. It's probably more of a mental thing than anything else.

"Weaver wouldn't be the same pitcher if he didn't pitch in Anaheim."

 

If not park factor then why is Anaheim such a charmed place?

[tdawg87]

Because it's his home stadium?

[bloodbrother]

Weav's more aligned with the mound at Angel stadium compared to other stadiums

[mtangelsfan]

Weave's done everything and more than could have been asked for this team.  The fact that so many of its fans speak poorly of him I just don't get.

 

and tdawg by your definition of overpaid any long term contract would make that player overpaid.  So unless it is your contention that a majority of free agents are overpaid then I really don't get the argument.  

[tdawg87]

Weave's done everything and more than could have been asked for this team.  The fact that so many of its fans speak poorly of him I just don't get.

 

and tdawg by your definition of overpaid any long term contract would make that player overpaid.  So unless it is your contention that a majority of free agents are overpaid then I really don't get the argument.  

 

Who are you responding to? I haven't mentioned anything about money in this thread or any other in regards to Weaver.