Fangraphs Starting Rotation Rankings - Angels #12

[bloodbrother]

Weav IS declining, I think we can all at least admit that. The numbers have been trending downward for the past 3-4 years now, the velocity continues to diminish and last year the worrisome thing was that his command was off a bit more than usual(he really can't fall behind in the count with the stuff he has these days)

 

With that said, Weav's earned his contract and has produced. Of course, once his deal runs out after 2016, the Angels should likely move on from him.

[Blarg]

Who are you responding to? I haven't mentioned anything about money in this thread or any other in regards to Weaver.

 

So he wasn't talking to you then, was he?. Dammit Tdawg it's not all about you, you, you.

 

 

 

Unless the discussion is about your extensive collection of Trout 8x10 glossies.

 

And the three that are... unblemished.

[tdawg87]

Weave's done everything and more than could have been asked for this team.  The fact that so many of its fans speak poorly of him I just don't get.

 

and tdawg by your definition of overpaid any long term contract would make that player overpaid.  So unless it is your contention that a majority of free agents are overpaid then I really don't get the argument.  

[tdawg87]

Sans man juice.

[NrM]

i think what hes getting at is that if weaver had left via FA, he would likely have gotten more money

I think that's pretty irrelevant.

Weaver benefited from pitching in anaheim just as much as the Angels benefited from his discount.

He wouldn't have gotten as much if he had pitched for any other team simply because he's not the same pitcher away from anaheim.

I like weaver and think he's a solid 3 or 4, but you guys get so damn defensive and butt hurt whenever anyone is critical of him.

Edited April 3, 2015 by Poozy

[Oz27]

"Props to other fine contributions such as "bunch of junk article" and "screw all the doubters".

And yes Oz27 your response was quite erudite.

Weaver is 131-69 life time. The five pitchers I mentioned are a combined 143-155. None of them have sniffed the air that Weaver has pitched in.

To rank each of the five with a higher WAR just shows the falicy of WAR.

Jason Hammel is Weavers age, is 59-70 lifetime and his WAR is 1.8 and Weavers 1.5???

Yeah, bunch of junk was too kind actually.

You're saying anything else is a bunch of junk when your argument is based on pitcher wins? Dear me.

[Oz27]

Weave's done everything and more than could have been asked for this team. The fact that so many of its fans speak poorly of him I just don't get.

and tdawg by your definition of overpaid any long term contract would make that player overpaid. So unless it is your contention that a majority of free agents are overpaid then I really don't get the argument.

That's a serious strawman argument. Nobody is speaking poorly of him. You can say he's been an excellent pitcher while still saying he's in a concerning decline, has struggled when pitching outside of Anaheim and is probably overpaid at this point of his career.

[mtangelsfan]

That's a serious strawman argument. Nobody is speaking poorly of him. You can say he's been an excellent pitcher while still saying he's in a concerning decline, has struggled when pitching outside of Anaheim and is probably overpaid at this point of his career.

 

tdawg-"he sucks on the road"

hollywood-"I'd rather have the pitcher who has a better chance of winning" and basically insinuated that Weaver doesn't have talent or ability anymore.

 

several other posts have called him average.

 

So no, not a strawman.  I've seen hundreds of he's declining posts and haven't responded to those because it isn't worth it.

[NrM]

tdawg-"he sucks on the road"

hollywood-"I'd rather have the pitcher who has a better chance of winning" and basically insinuated that Weaver doesn't have talent or ability anymore.

several other posts have called him average.

So no, not a strawman. I've seen hundreds of he's declining posts and haven't responded to those because it isn't worth it.

all of those posts would be correct. That doesn't mean I don't see the value he brings.

[mtangelsfan]

Do you think he is overpaid?

 

If he is then so is pretty much every FA at the back end of their contracts.

[Oz27]

tdawg-"he sucks on the road"

hollywood-"I'd rather have the pitcher who has a better chance of winning" and basically insinuated that Weaver doesn't have talent or ability anymore.

several other posts have called him average.

So no, not a strawman. I've seen hundreds of he's declining posts and haven't responded to those because it isn't worth it.

Sucks is a little strong but he certainly isn't good on the road anymore either.

Also, are you seriously arguing Weav isn't declining? Three years ago he was one of the best pitchers in baseball and you can't say that anymore.

[Blarg]

Just because he isn't one of the best pitchers in baseball doesn't mean he isn't a valuable asset. It is a stupid argument to say top ten or bust.

[NrM]

Do you think he is overpaid?

If he is then so is pretty much every FA at the back end of their contracts.

depends how you're looking at it. His overall contract isn't an overpay and has been a rare success.

if we're only looking at things going forward, then yes I do think he's overpaid.

Mainly because they backloaded it.

Edited April 3, 2015 by Poozy

[QuinlansMinion]

Man I thought our lineup was bad.  The Dodgers have the ghost corpse of Jimmy Rollins leading off.  

[NrM]

Just because he isn't one of the best pitchers in baseball doesn't mean he isn't a valuable asset. It is a stupid argument to say top ten or bust.

no one is sayong that.

[Oz27]

Just because he isn't one of the best pitchers in baseball doesn't mean he isn't a valuable asset. It is a stupid argument to say top ten or bust.

Isn't disputing arguments no one has made fun?

[tdawg87]

In regards to the declining thing-

 

Weaver 2011 through 2014:

 

ERA+ - 156, 135, 115, 101

ERA - 2.41, 2.81, 3.27, 3.59

WHIP - 1.01, 1.01, 1.14, 1.20

FIP - 3.20, 3.75, 3.82, 4.19

K/BB - 3.54, 3.16, 3.16, 2.60

H/9 - 7.0, 7.0, 8.1, 8.1

HR/9 - 0.8, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1

BB/9 - 2.1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.7

 

You'll be hard pressed to find anyone who has shown such a steady decline over pretty much every stat imaginable.

 

In regards to saying he sucks on the road:

 

2014: 4.70 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .270 AVG

 

In today's era of pitching, I'd say that was a fair statement for 2014.

 

In 2013: 4.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .242 AVG

 

Much better, but still not good. He pitched well on the road in 2011 and 2012, however he was still much better at home. And you'll also see his road numbers have declined pretty rapidly since 2011, just as all his other numbers have. So it stands to reason that he will be even worse in 2015, which is pretty damn bad.

 

As for him being overpaid, I don't know where that argument even came into play. It looks like the link in the OP stated that. Weaver's contract overall is a good one and one I would do over and over again if given the choice. But just because he isn't overpaid, and because he gave the team a discount, doesn't make him immune to criticism.

 

Weaver is still a very good middle of the rotation starter, and he has the added bonus of seeming to actually give a crap when he takes the mound (unlike some other pitchers we have seen). If anyone thinks he isn't an asset to this team then they are terribly wrong. He just isn't nearly the pitcher he was 4 years ago and the stats prove that.

[Oz27]

In regards to the declining thing-

Weaver 2011 through 2014:

ERA+ - 156, 135, 115, 101

ERA - 2.41, 2.81, 3.27, 3.59

WHIP - 1.01, 1.01, 1.14, 1.20

FIP - 3.20, 3.75, 3.82, 4.19

K/BB - 3.54, 3.16, 3.16, 2.60

H/9 - 7.0, 7.0, 8.1, 8.1

HR/9 - 0.8, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1

BB/9 - 2.1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.7

You'll be hard pressed to find anyone who has shown such a steady decline over pretty much every stat imaginable.

In regards to saying he sucks on the road:

2014: 4.70 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .270 AVG

In today's era of pitching, I'd say that was a fair statement for 2014.

In 2013: 4.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .242 AVG

Much better, but still not good. He pitched well on the road in 2011 and 2012, however he was still much better at home. And you'll also see his road numbers have declined pretty rapidly since 2011, just as all his other numbers have. So it stands to reason that he will be even worse in 2015, which is pretty damn bad.

As for him being overpaid, I don't know where that argument even came into play. It looks like the link in the OP stated that. Weaver's contract overall is a good one and one I would do over and over again if given the choice. But just because he isn't overpaid, and because he gave the team a discount, doesn't make him immune to criticism.

Weaver is still a very good middle of the rotation starter, and he has the added bonus of seeming to actually give a crap when he takes the mound (unlike some other pitchers we have seen). If anyone thinks he isn't an asset to this team then they are terribly wrong. He just isn't nearly the pitcher he was 4 years ago and the stats prove that.

I agree on all of that. With the contract I certainly still believe it was the right thing to do and overall we'll get good value out of it. But is Weaver now worth an AAV of $19.5 mil, as he'll get over the final two years? Not really. If he were an FA now I think he'd get something like 3/42. So by that definition yes, he will be overpaid over the final two years. He's still an important piece for us who can still be a pretty good pitcher. But he's in an indisputable decline which is hard not to be concerned by, with his road performances a particular worry.

[bloodbrother]

depends how you're looking at it. His overall contract isn't an overpay and has been a rare success.

if we're only looking at things going forward, then yes I do think he's overpaid.

Mainly because they backloaded it.

 

 

I think that's how most deals are set up anyway. Teams backload it knowing the player likely won't be worth what he makes at the end but hope he outproduces what he makes on the front-end of his contract to make it all worth it. I'd say Weav's accomplished that

[Docwaukee]

Conventional WAR is not a clean stat to assess the value of Jered Weaver.  He's always been a WAR outlier and always will be.  

 

Because he's has shown that he has the repeatable skill of limiting hard contact, a better stat to give a more accurate idea of his value is RA9-WAR

 

His total RA9-WAR for the last three years is 5.3+3.3+3.3 = 12 

 

$/win was at around 7mil last year and when he signed the deal was around 6.5.  It will probably be around 7.5 mil per avg by the time the deal is done after next year.  

 

so 12 WAR x 7.5mil has him providing a value of 90 mil already.  Even using conventional WAR, he's provided a value of about 60mil.  So he would need to accumulate less than 2 WAR per season over the next two years for the contract to be even when using a stat that doesn't even give his true value in my opinion.  

 

So is he declining?  Of course.  As expected.  

Is he overpaid?  Going forward, maybe a bit if you just count his salary vs. production for the next two years and ignore what he's done the previous three.  Even if you use a stat that doesn't favor his game it's pretty darn close.  So frankly, the answer is no.  He's not overpaid.  

[Blarg]

CC Sabathia has made $23 per season for the last 3 years and he makes Weaver look like Cy Young. His decline was not a graceful ease out from being a dominat #1, it fell off a cliff. And provided he doesn't have some season ending injury the Yankees are on the hook for $73 million over the next three seasons.

 

In context that is just $12 million less than Weavers entire contract.

[tdawg87]

Sabathia completely losing his pitching ability and then losing like 50 pounds makes me wonder if he wasn't taking some HGH injections in his pre-game cheeseburgers.

[Blarg]

The effects of genetically engineered hamburgers.

[Inside Pitch]

Sabathia completely losing his pitching ability and then losing like 50 pounds makes me wonder if he wasn't taking some HGH injections in his pre-game cheeseburgers.

 

Dude looks like he found those pounds this Spring.  So at least he has that going for him.