Stock Market: The Thread

[Brandon]

Dow sinks, so do mortgage rates.

I hadn't checked the Dow but saw the rate sheets and was like wtf?

[gotbeer]

Is it the end of Western Civilization yet?

[Tank]

Is it the end of Western Civilization yet?

 

i'm having lunch with western civilization on friday. i'll let you know what i find out.

[Amazing Larry]

Trading in China suspended for the day again after a 7% drop in the market. I think the shit is finally meeting the fan over there.

[Amazing Larry]

This morning it's spreading to Europe and the US. Probably going to be an interesting day on Wall St.

[fan_since79]

Persuasive article that shows stocks are more overvalued now than at the 2000 and 2007 peaks:

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-are-more-overvalued-now-than-at-2000-and-2007-peaks-2015-12-11

[Mark68]

Persuasive article that shows stocks are more overvalued now than at the 2000 and 2007 peaks:

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-are-more-overvalued-now-than-at-2000-and-2007-peaks-2015-12-11

Probably not so much now.

 

When China sneezes, Wall Street catches pneumonia.

[nate]

The world is also reacting to the NK nuke test.  China is one of the few countries that deals with NK.

[Mark68]

The world is also reacting to the NK nuke test.  China is one of the few countries that deals with NK.

Yeah, but all I keep hearing about the Chinese economy is that it's slowing down.

 

I'm not surprised as I think it's been a bit overheated.

[Slegnaac]

I am wondering if opening a Scottrade account 2 weeks ago was bad timing or good timing.

[fan_since79]

Market plunges in the final hour after being up much of the day. The Dow has lost almost 1,100 points this week.

 

Oil is barely above $33.

[mrwicked]

at some point all hell is gonna break loose for a bit.

i know the startup world is starting to come down to reality.

will be great time to pick up some real estate on the cheap.

[Amazing Larry]

at some point all hell is gonna break loose for a bit.

i know the startup world is starting to come down to reality.

will be great time to pick up some real estate on the cheap.

Is SF real estate leveling off at all? That place has been "hella" expensive for quite some time now.

[fan_since79]

Wealthy Chinese are snapping up homes all over the place in southern California, and paying cash for them. Beverly Hills, the Westside, Irvine, you name it.

 

Their college-age children are at UCLA, Berkeley, etc.

[Brandon]

It's not as prominent as it used to be. Values have been going up for many years now, they snapped them up at the very bottom post-2008...probably 2010-2011ish.

[fan_since79]

Massive selloff in progress. Run for the exits!

[Jay]

pretty ugly out there today

[fan_since79]

Oil rallied this morning, then fell right back down to $30. 

Edited January 13, 2016 by fan_since79

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

If you're in it for the long haul today, this week, this month and even this year are just blips on the radar.  Unfortunately that fact won't keep a lot of average Joe investors from panicking and selling stocks or actively managed equity mutual funds.      

[Jay]

I'd like to see the S&P hold 1900 or thereabouts; could be a buy signal.

[mrwicked]

Is SF real estate leveling off at all? That place has been "hella" expensive for quite some time now.

 

yeah its still pretty wild.

but its not really speculative. the area is just so small, and incomes are so high, that folks just drive prices up naturally.

there are some foreign buyers but it's not as much as folks want to think.

it'll definitely take a hit but it will never tank (except for an earthquake, and even then it'll be back to normal in a few years).

same with rents. so much VC money just gets transferred to landlords via their employees, that will dry up a bit when the tech bubble deflates.

[fan_since79]

Selling is accelerating into the close.

 

The case could be made that this market is overdue for a significant correction. A difficult earnings season will drive stocks even lower. This could be a tough year ahead. Earnings will be a key driver.

Edited January 13, 2016 by fan_since79

[Angel Oracle]

If you're in it for the long haul today, this week, this month and even this year are just blips on the radar. Unfortunately that fact won't keep a lot of average Joe investors from panicking and selling stocks or actively managed equity mutual funds.

Tell that to investors who invested in early 2000 instead of waiting it out a couple of years. The difference is huge.

If indeed the values are over like they were in 2000, another significant drop may be in the cards.

One of the oldest adages is that the country has had alternating 15-20 year periods of mediocre returns followed by big returns, since 1900.

This mediocre period since March 2000 is some 16 years old, and has seen a drop of about 10% in the NASDAQ and a jump of about 30% in the DOW and S&P.

There might be one more downturn to come. Then, based on the election results, maybe a new era of bigger returns begins in late 2016?

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Tell that to investors who invested in early 2000 instead of waiting it out a couple of years. The difference is huge.

If indeed the values are over like they were in 2000, another significant drop may be in the cards.

One of the oldest adages is that the country has had alternating 15-20 year periods of mediocre returns followed by big returns, since 1900.

This mediocre period since March 2000 is some 16 years old, and has seen a drop of about 10% in the NASDAQ and a jump of about 30% in the DOW and S&P.

There might be one more downturn to come. Then, based on the election results, maybe a new era of bigger returns begins in late 2016?

 

Anyone who invested shortly before the 87 crash and stayed in it for the long haul did fine and you can say the same thing about any 30 year period in the history of the S&P500 which has returned 10% annually since it's creation in 1928.  From 1966-1981 the markets were flat once adjusted for inflation yet anyone invested from 66-96 saw 12% annual returns and 7% after adjusting for inflation.  That 10% annualized return doesn't mean you're getting 10% each year it means some years you're getting 20, some years you're getting 0 and others you're getting negative returns.  Past results aren't indicative of future results but I'll take history over chicken little's.  

Edited January 13, 2016 by Catwhoshatinthehat

[fan_since79]

Royal Bank of Scotland economists are very bearish on stocks in 2016: “Sell everything except high-quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.”