Stock Market: The Thread

[halobob]

The entire market is overpriced IMO.  I think it is going to be a rough year for stocks in 2016.  SPXS ftw!  Tomorrow will be very interesting...will the market bounce back or will it plunge past the S&P lows.

Edited January 13, 2016 by halobob

[Angel Oracle]

Anyone who invested shortly before the 87 crash and stayed in it for the long haul did fine and you can say the same thing about any 30 year period in the history of the S&P500 which has returned 10% annually since it's creation in 1928. From 1966-1981 the markets were flat once adjusted for inflation yet anyone invested from 66-96 saw 12% annual returns and 7% after adjusting for inflation. That 10% annualized return doesn't mean you're getting 10% each year it means some years you're getting 20, some years you're getting 0 and others you're getting negative returns. Past results aren't indicative of future results but I'll take history over chicken little's.

The difference between 1987 crash and 2000 crash is that by 1987 there was already a 15-17 year down period starting in 1966. Stocks had no place to go but up after that mediocre period.

2000 crash came after a record run up in the 1990s that bordered on stupid for tech stocks.

[Tank]

i wish bank interest was worth a damn so that my retirement savings wasn't affected by the mood swings of the stock market.

[Jay]

I'm surprised to see there's no report from fs79 on today's oversold bounce

[mrwicked]

i wish bank interest was worth a damn so that my retirement savings wasn't affected by the mood swings of the stock market.

 

Are you near retirement? If so you shouldn't have anything in equities (for the exact reason you mention - you don't want it affected by the swings of the market).

If not, then you should be happy. This means you can buy while things are cheap.

Don't day trade your retirement, just keep funding it and ignore it.

Check in once a year and tweak your portfolio as needed.

[Tank]

Are you near retirement? If so you shouldn't have anything in equities (for the exact reason you mention - you don't want it affected by the swings of the market).

If not, then you should be happy. This means you can buy while things are cheap.

Don't day trade your retirement, just keep funding it and ignore it.

Check in once a year and tweak your portfolio as needed.

 

our 401k is run by our employing corporation, and includes all of the employees of the seventh-day adventist church (ministers and teachers). we can't trade stocks or do things like a private investor can. not sure of all the regulations, but we pretty much can choose whether to have stocks and bonds that are no risk, medium risk, or higher risk. i've played it pretty safe since i've been in it for the long haul, but i have the option to adjust periodically if i choose.

 

i'm looking at full retirement in about 10 years so i don't want to do anything too risky. i've endured the mood swings each time, and i'll endure this one.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Playing it safe is better than playing it loose but if you've been playing it safe for 20+ years you didn't do yourself any favors when you had time on your side and could afford to go higher risk.  That said everyone has a different risk appetite and what works for one person doesn't always work for another.  If you're 10 years from retirement you should have a good chunk in bonds.

[Amazing Larry]

I'd like to see the S&P hold 1900 or thereabouts; could be a buy signal.

1881 this morning and down about 2%. I just watched BofA's head of US high yield trading state that this the end of the credit cycle, default rates will rise and there will be massive outflows.

What I'm curious about is what the Fed thinks they're going to do. They already blew their wad when it comes to "stimulus." Will they go to negative rates?

[fan_since79]

I'm surprised to see there's no report from fs79 on today's oversold bounce

 

Was busy yesterday with work-related matters...would have commented on it. Yes, a big buying session yesterday, but reality intrudes today.

Oil is dropping through the floor, the global economy is slowing, earnings season is shaping up as a disappointment, and the Dow dropped 400 points this morning before recovering a bit. S&P is in full correction mode, down more than 10% from the recent highs.

 

This feels a little like the Fall of 2008 before things fell apart.

[Jay]

S&P retesting the August flash-crash low.  Let's hope it holds.

[Angel Oracle]

I still see one more significant drop.    Now 3% down across the board today

 

Maybe down to below 4,000 on the NASDAQ, below 1,600 on the S&P, and below 14,000 on the DOW?

Edited January 15, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[mrwicked]

how about gopro?

was a darling at its IPO, peaking ate $65 in august.

now down to $12.50, a fall of 80%.

ouch.

[Schildog]

gopro should have sold to someone. didn't seem like a good company to go public with.

[Tank]

how about gopro?

was a darling at its IPO, peaking ate $65 in august.

now down to $12.50, a fall of 80%.

ouch.

 

buy buy buy???

[mrwicked]

buy buy buy???

 

haha eesh. even I'm hard pressed to say that.

i dont know that space enough to have an opinion. 

could be cheap. or they could have ridden the hype to cash on and now they are down to reality.

who knows.

[Jay]

lots of beaten-down stocks right now

 

Well the S&P held above 1867 resistance, at least for today

[fan_since79]

The Dow is down only 18 points, but off more than 200 points from its early morning high.

 

Oil is dropping again.

 

Not good. LOL that China's "disappointing" growth rate is 6.9%. Our economy would be sizzling with a rate like that.

[aznhockeyguy]

Ughh, of course the year I finally invest my cash horde and start a Roth IRA the market decides to tank.

[fan_since79]

Ughh, of course the year I finally invest my cash horde and start a Roth IRA the market decides to tank.

 

Don't feel too bad. An energy fund I own is down 23% this year already. No choice at this point but to hold on to it. It will eventually recover.

[aznhockeyguy]

Don't feel too bad. An energy fund I own is down 23% this year already. No choice at this point but to hold on to it. It will eventually recover.

About 18 months ago I bought some stock on ESV a drilling company at around 48, it went down to 43 ish after about 2 months and I sold it. A few months after I sold it lost 50% because of declining oil prices, now it's at 9.25.  Energy and specifically oil is a dangerous game right now.

[Amazing Larry]

Markets in Asia taking a dump again. Japan in a bear market despite Abe's aggressive money printing and Hong Kong is down over 3 1/2%. WTI crude is below $28. It will probably be a rough day on Wall Street tomorrow.

[Schildog]

#prayforfansince79

[fan_since79]

#prayforfansince79

 

Mostly in cash, but my energy fund is getting destroyed. I don't have much in it though.

 

I'm in good shape, but thanks for your concern.

[fan_since79]

Dow off 536 points.

 

Oil $26.87 and still falling.

 

One thing is sure, the Fed won't be raising rates again anytime soon. Deflation is more of a threat right now.

[aznhockeyguy]

Damn it, should I start converting everything into cash?  I run bad this is ridiculous.  Literally, the first month I invest in my retirement and mutual funds, this crap happens.  You guys think the market will continue to tank?  Should I sell or wait it out?

Edited January 20, 2016 by aznhockeyguy