Stock Market: The Thread

[Brandon]

Yeah, I wouldn't say that either. They are raising rates slowly, building the economy back up.

If anything, as the mortgage market is back in an upswing, I have noticed some of the pre-mortgage crisis products are making an appearance again...aka sub-prime lending.

One thing I think I've learned in my short life is that Wall Street and banks will always want to make a dollar. If one aspect dries up, they will create another.

[Brandon]

You have to remember, pre-recession was also post 9/11 where everyone dropped rates (I think Ford or Chevy were damn near giving away free financing) and housing prices magically sky rocketed.

Appraisal prices are in line and I don't see 2nd mortgage/heloc products back in the market. The only thing I worry about is, generally speaking, interest rates and housing prices go in the same direction. As rates rise so do home values, as home values go up so does equity, as that goes up and some introduces helocs Americans are too dumb to not resist "free" money.

Overall though, corrections and adjustments need to be made mixed with recovery. I'm actually really interested in others ideas and the thought process with pre-recession. It could be the sub-prime lending.

[mrwicked]

Yeah sub-prime lending is definitely back, but now it's primarily focused on personal loans, credit cards and car loans.

I think they learned their lesson last time. 

People were literally more likely to keep paying their cell phone bill and just stop paying on their underwater mortgage.

In the housing field like B said it's definitely coming back a little bit, but it's relatively tiny from what I have read (at least currently).

I read something like 0.3% of first time home loans are now sub-prime, a total of about $2b.

During the height of the boom they did something like $625b a year in sub-prime loans.

Edited August 12, 2015 by mrwicked

[Brandon]

I see a bit more sub-prime lending, but in the sake of FHA loans, which are government backed. Makes sense though.....3.5% down gets you and your poor credit in a home, but you have to pay mortgage insurance into a pool for when they foreclose. As long as the banks get around 80% of the value its profit in the long run.

 

The HARP program has been a money maker because it's literally like no-doc loans, but government backed as long as a loan is before 2009 and has zero late in 12 months.....this goes for any and anyone too, I see ballers and regular dudes refi'ing HARP and dropping half a point or more. All you need is to have a job and homeowners insurance to get the loan with the two parameters in the previous sentence.

 

I only worry about HELOCs and 2nd mortgages as values rise. I still am reminded of it daily when some chick calls up and wants to refi her 3 investment properties because they were all in interest only programs for 10 years and now adjusting to normal payments (not quite the great neg am pick-a-pays where everyone was selecting the lowest payment each month and upside down on their loans quickly). They actually think some bank or lender will do a loan mod on an invest meant property if they can't get a refinance! But I see it daily where people still think money is unaccounted for.

 

HARP is basically what the 125 market was in the 90's. Next is going to be HELOCS and 2nds. No more neg-am loans, janitors saying they make 90k or going to the various websites where they could print out paystubs, or mortgage brokers telling people they have a 30 fixed at 2% not telling them it's an interest only or ARM product.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I really need to learn more about this stuff. I have a deferred comp account at work, but its set to conservative so i havent really gained much. I have a good nest egg ive saved up, but have been too lazy to invest it.

Ive been saving to buy a new house, so i cant get too crazy with my savings yet, but i also have a good amount of equity in my current place. So the hope is to flip the current, and once im settled invest my savings

[Lhalo]

S&P 500 negative for the year.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

BUY CANNED GOODS AND AMMO!!!!

[HaloFan85]

There's another housing bubble, a trillion dollar student loan bubble, and a derivatives bubble that's something like 1.5 quadrillion dollars.  From what the experts say, all it will take is any significant rise in interest rates for them to burst, and the only way to keep that from happening (just for the time being because it's inevitable at this point) is to continue on with quantitative easing aka keep borrowing money to keep rates down which really just inflates stock prices to make the 'elite' even richer, and we all know that can't go on forever.  That's how our debt has risen to over $18 trillion dollars.  As it is now, we have to keep selling our debt at 'discounted' prices every month just to stay under the debt ceiling at its current level.  Imagine adding another trillion or two on top of that via QE.  Couple that with all future trading between Russia, China, and the rest of their trading partners in 'non-dollar' transactions (which will help kill the dollar) and we're dead man walking.

 

We're soo desperate to save our ship from sinking, it's why we're trying to destroy Russia and China, and what many are saying, also destroy the Euro via their own quantitative easing program coupled with sanctions against Russia which are causing Europe to lose BILLIONS of dollars.  The EU's debt currently stands at something like 14 trillion dollars.  Funny thing about that is while we're forcing Europe to stop trading with Russia, we (the US) have increased trading with Russia.  Go figure.

 

Our stock market has been rigged for far too long.  How is it the price of gold has been at some of its lowest levels in like 5 years when the demand for physical gold has been increasing in recent years?  It defies the basic laws of supply and demand.  I know the price of gold is determined in the futures market and that's where it's all rigged.  The end game is near any way you look at it....... UNLESS, we snatch up all the world's resources??  Is everything happening in the world right now (cold wars, hot wars, sanctions, free trade deals, etc.) beginning to make a little more sense yet?

[fan_since79]

Along with the aforementioned bubbles and the federal debt, there are the unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare, estimated to be $100 trillion. Of course, these are 75-year projections and inflation and the growth in GDP will cut that figure down to size. The number is calculated in current dollars.

[mrwicked]

Every generation says the sky is falling.

Just stick to trusting math and the fundamentals and ignore noise and hype and you'll be fine.

[Lhalo]

Every generation says the sky is falling.

Just stick to trusting math and the fundamentals and ignore noise and hype and you'll be fine.

Just plug your head into a hole like an ostrich.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

It's not plugging your head in the sand it's just investing for your future.  If you'd rather complain about how it's rigged and the world isn't perfect while not thinking about your future more power to you.  I prefer to follow the 'prepare for the worst and hope for the best' line of thinking and continue to put money into investments even though I think they're overvalued, a correction is due and yes there are some bubbles.  If the sh*t really hits the fan like some people claim no one is going to care about their retirement accounts because worthless paper won't be your concern.    

[Jay]

There are people out there who have been warning of a crash for years.  One day they will be right.

 

It's a tough market right now though.

[Lhalo]

It's not plugging your head in the sand it's just investing for your future.  If you'd rather complain about how it's rigged and the world isn't perfect while not thinking about your future more power to you.  I prefer to follow the 'prepare for the worst and hope for the best' line of thinking and continue to put money into investments even though I think they're overvalued, a correction is due and yes there are some bubbles.  If the sh*t really hits the fan like some people claim no one is going to care about their retirement accounts because worthless paper won't be your concern.    

 

Don't get me wrong, I still invest too. 

 

But I sure as hell don't cast aside very real fundamental underlying problems that are infecting this market. 

[fan_since79]

Market is really tumbling now, on "global growth" fears and uncertainty about rate hikes. Investors are cashing out for the moment.

 

Dow is down 265 points, NASDAQ over 100.

[Lhalo]

WTI Crude down to about $41 a barrel yet gas prices are still hovering around $4 a gallon.

 

 

 

 

What a crock of shit.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Yup.  As far as what we pay at the pump we're paying what we paid when the price per barrel was ~3x as much.  I realize there's a new tax that kicked in here in CA, the summer blend and so on but it confirms how it's all a racket.  

 

As far as the market goes if I bought individual stocks I'd be tempted to buy Chevron (currently down 37% vs. it's 52 week high) and Exxon (currently down 25% vs. it's 52 week high).  Admittedly I don't do individual stocks, I'm sure there's better energy buys and I said something similar some years back and would probably be in the red right now had I actually done it then.  Of course there's always energy ETF's/indexes I could buy but I'll just stick with the long term allocation I currently have and own those companies through some of the index funds I own.    

Edited August 20, 2015 by Catwhoshatinthehat

[fan_since79]

The new tax in California is hidden. Part of the cap-and-trade scheme imposed on the citizens. High-end estimates of the tax are $1.50/gallon. It's impossible to actually find out what the tax is. 

 

I'm so sick of politicians. Millions of Americans are also sick and tired of them. That's why Trump is soaring in the polls. He's the polar opposite of politics-as-usual.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

The new tax in California is hidden. Part of the cap-and-trade scheme imposed on the citizens. High-end estimates of the tax are $1.50/gallon. It's impossible to actually find out what the tax is. 

 

I'm so sick of politicians. Millions of Americans are also sick and tired of them. That's why Trump is soaring in the polls. He's the polar opposite of politics-as-usual.

 

Keep believing that.  If Trump somehow got elected he'd be just like every other politician once they get into office.  Obama got elected in part because he came off as being more honest and open yet it's been just more of the same.  Once you get that high up they're all catering to the same groups and interests.   

[fan_since79]

Keep believing that.  If Trump somehow got elected he'd be just like every other politician once they get into office.  Obama got elected in part because he came off as being more honest and open yet it's been just more of the same.  Once you get that high up they're all catering to the same groups and interests.   

 

One thing is different. Trump doesn't need the money. He's worth over $10 billion and he's said that he could finance his campaign with his own funds.

 

And I don't think he's one to cater to anyone at this point. I'm not saying he'd make a good president, though. I think he's a bit deranged.

[fan_since79]

Market is in free fall. Dow down 306 points, NASDAQ is getting slaughtered. 

Edited August 20, 2015 by fan_since79

[mrwicked]

[Jay]

Pretty ugly day in the stock market.  Hope you have some cash ready to buy.

[mrwicked]

These days are the best!

 

TWTR is still in free-fall. 

Keep an eye out for someone like Icahn to come in and buy a bunch while it's cheap if he thinks he can get it propped back up.

If he does, jump in.

I've lazily followed his moves a few times and made a bundle (e.g., netflix).

Edited August 20, 2015 by mrwicked

[fan_since79]

August is turning into a disaster for stocks.

 

Down big again this morning on "global growth concerns".

 

In other words, the party's over in China.