A Case to Stand Pat

[Jeff Fletcher]

I have the AAV currently at $165,560,500.  As for how I came to my total:

 

I have Trout's current salary equal to last year's at $510K.

 

I also used the exact total amount for the 15 players making the minor league minimum which comes to $1.2225M.

 

As for the 1/30th share, the other day MLBN was using $11.5M when trying to come up with the AAV for the Yanks or Dogs (can't remember which team).  They didn't note it as an estimate, and since I couldn't find confirmation, I figured I'd just use it for now.

 

Other than that, and probably the biggest difference is since the Angels owe $28.1M in total to the Yanks for Wells's last two years, I just used $14.05M for CBT purposes.

 

When teams assume a contract and get cash from another team, the amount for the CBT is not averaged, but specific to the year. The Yankees actually took more of Wells salary last year and less this year.

 

I asked Dipoto why it works this way and he gave me a really long answer that, honestly, I didn't understand.

 

But that's how it works.

 

Also, you have to count the major league salaries of everyone for the whole year. Some guys have guaranteed contracts, which means that they will make major league salary even if they are in the minors.

Edited January 23, 2014 by Jeff Fletcher

[T.G.]

Garza makes me nervous.  I'm find with Capuano for depth.

[floplag]

Yea, I know, but if things break the right way, or if say the A's have a down year, then 90 wins or so could get us in.

 

I'll be honest, i still cant figure out how they had the years they had the last couple... their offense has been pure luck in my opinion.  statistically we had better numbers everywhere but HR, but i digress.

i still dont think they will do it again... and yes i think we have a shot, but like anything we need the big money guys to perform like big money guys or the rest is moot.

[HaloFan85]

When teams assume a contract and get cash from another team, the amount for the CBT is not averaged, but specific to the year. The Yankees actually took more of Wells salary last year and less this year.

 

I asked Dipoto why it works this way and he gave me a really long answer that, honestly, I didn't understand.

 

But that's how it works.

 

Also, you have to count the major league salaries of everyone for the whole year. Some guys have guaranteed contracts, which means that they will make major league salary even if they are in the minors.

Could've sworn I read somewhere that trade compensation was treated the same way, but since you got it straight from the horses mouth, I'll take your word for it.

 

That would then push my AAV estimate to $170.1105M.

[Mark68]

It could be that Arte is in a holding pattern. He might be OK with exceeding the CBT for the right player, for one, maybe two years. If we don't go over this year, it might be because he doesn't want to go over for this year + next year + 2016 + 2017, etc.

 

If he can stay under as long as possible, he may be fine with biting the bullet short-term.

[tdawg87]

If the Angels offer Trout 30 million AAV than Dipoto should be fired.

 

AND if Trout leaves, everyone should be fired.  I have said this before but people just want to ignore logic.  Now pay attention.

 

Could Trout get 30 million a year IF he was a free agent this year????  Possibly.  However, he isn't a free agent for another four years.

 

2014 he is guaranteed 500K  

2015 we can only guess but a safe guess would be 10 million.  I am assuming that is a record for year one arbitration

2016 I would guess around 16 million.  And assuming that is a record year two arbitration.

2017 I am guessing 20 million.  Again a record cor year three arbitration

 

That is 46.5 million for four years.  Now lets say we give trout his 30 million for the next six years.  that is a 180 million and 226.5 over a ten year period.  You see that people, Even if Trout maxes his value he isn't getting more than 226.5 over the next ten years.  That is a 22.65 AAV not 30 million.  So please stop using that number.  

 

Oh for those who think Trout wouldn't take it wake up.  UNLESS TROUT IS MISERABLE, there is no way he is turning down 226 million guaranteed when nothing is guaranteed for the next four years.  You guys must think injuries do not happen. 

 

Is it possible for you to make a post here without acting like a complete douche?

Edited January 23, 2014 by tdawg87

[stormngt]

Is it possible for you to make a post here without acting like a complete do

I don't know if you know this or not, but I maybe a complete douche but that doesn't mean I am right.  You want to criticize someone's logic you shouldn't get personal. That is called a Ad hominem attack that is considered to be a fallacy of logic.

 

I am sorry you don't like what I say but I am sick and tired of reading people's comments like Trout is currently a free agent.  First of all, there has never been a 30 million dollar player.  So even if Trout is a free agent it is very possible he wouldn't even be offered that much money.  However he is not a free agent, so his salary potential is very limited.  

 

BTW I can be very nasty on your comments as well.  As you often come off as a douche as well.

[tdawg87]

I wasn't questioning your logic, as I think you have a point.

 

I was questioning your constant talking down to people as if everyone else is stupid and wrong. You can just as easily get your point across without saying things like "people just want to ignore logic. Now pay attention" "wake up" and "You see that people".

 

It makes you look like, well, a douche.

[Troll Daddy]

Standing PAT isn't a option right now ... unless you want Blanton in the rotation. There's a good chance he beats out one of Richards, Santiago, or Skaggs for a spot.

[Chimi]

Kershaw's contract is actually just under $31MM AAV so to say Trout couldn't get that I don't feel is true. He could very easily get the same being an every day player.

[gotbeer]

Kershaw's contract is actually just under $31MM AAV so to say Trout couldn't get that I don't feel is true. He could very easily get the same being an every day player.

 

I think what people are trying to say is that you have to factor in his arbitration years.  He will not get $31 million AAV for those three years.  And when you average those numbers in, it brings his AAV down considerably.  Doesn't mean he isn't going to get paid handsomely in his FA years.  It's just the way arbitration works, his AAV if you include the arbitration years would be much lower.

[gotbeer]

For instance Kershaw is currently at a AAV of $30.7 million.  If you include what he made in his two arbitration years.  His AAV drops to $26 million.  

[Brent Maguire]

Standing pat is starting to look like a realistic option. After we add another starter of course.

The payroll is definitely an issue. Once Trout gets his deal, you're looking at minimal cash to try to improve in free agency. That's why signing Garza may be a risk as well.

[moccasin]

Two words. Bullpen depth.

If you don't have a bullpen, you got nothing.

 

After seeing the RedSox's Uehara, the Cardinals' Rosenthal, people still don't seem to get it.

The Yankees have been adding everything but bullpen depth this year, but they'll probably lose out because of their inability to replace Mariano.

[Jeff Fletcher]

The "douche" is absolutely right.

 

http://www.ocregister.com/angels/trout-597480-free-agency.html

[nikkachez]

You're not looking at the payroll in the luxury tax sense. The luxury tax takes the average annual value of a contract, not what the player is actually earning that year. Pujols is a $240 million dollar contract over ten years, so his AAV is $24 until his contract expires, Hamilton is $25 through the next 4 years, etc. As of now, the Angels stand at $170.075 million, so we have a hair under $15 million to spend. Here's Jeff Fletcher's graph showing everything

 

https://twitter.com/JeffFletcherOCR/status/426128498533486592

 

I agree, however, that the Angels should stand pat now. Rather than overpaying for Garza or, even worse Arroyo, the Halos should sign a cheap veteran like Scott Baker, Jason Hammel, Chris Capuano, Paul Maholm, etc. Not sexy options by any means but if we're going to overpay, overpay in a better free agency class. We have a tick under $15 million to spend this offseason, get that back next offseason when Wells, Blanton, Ibanez, and possibly Burnett come off the books. With all of their AAV's combined plus the cash we have now, that's a savings of around $50 million dollars if we stand pat. That's enough money to sign Trout and sign a starting pitcher (Scherzer, Masterson, Lester, and Shields are all free agents.) In theory we could lock up Trout, sign a top tier starting pitcher (I think we should go all in on Scherzer), and add a bat to replace Ibanez. I'm not sold on any of our prospects -Cron will be the focus here- so it would make sense to add a bat to DH who can be a little more versatile than Raul. We lock up Trout, sign Scherzer, and sign Victor Martinez or Josh Willingham, go over the tax threshold but only as first time offenders. Looking after 2015, we have Howie, Iannetta, and Freese off the books which could help us get underneath the tax threshold. 2016 is the year the luxury tax threshold actually increases so the Angels will get even more room. After that, Weaver, Wilson, Aybar, and Smith are all free agents. 

 

But imagine this team in 2015

 

1. Trout CF (should hit lead-off)

2. Calhoun RF (will probably switch with Trout)

3. Pujols 1B

4. Hamilton LF

5. Willingham/Martinez DH (Willingham plays some OF, but Martinez can play first and catch in a pinch)

6. Freese 3B

7. Kendrick 2B (I want Howie hitting no higher than 6th)

8. Iannetta/Conger C

9. Aybar SS

 

Scherzer, Weaver, Wilson, Richards, Skaggs (hopefully Sappington as depth)

 

Frieri, Smith, De La Rosa, Alvarez (fingers crossed), Morin, Moran, and Santiago fill out the pen. 

 

Just my speculations and dreaming, but the consensus of this rant is that the Angels should save their money and splurge on a) Mike Trout and  top tier starting pitchers in the next couple years. 

Edited January 23, 2014 by nikkachez

[nikkachez]

and keep in mind Fletcher's payroll graph takes into consideration Trout making $23 million each year

[OregonLAA]

I don't think I've seen tdawg get into it with anyone on here. But I'm enjoying this. Please, go on

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

Anybody else getting vibes that this poster is that one dude who wanted to fight a poster in the Angel Stadium parking lot and how he is a REAL fan because he walked by the stadium every day for school

 

What was his name? Daddy(plus many others, of course)?

 

 

"Deniz". Then, after he was banned, his next id was "Vegas Mike".

[Stradling]

So, do I clean up two pages or just throw the entire thread away?

[HaloCory22]

Damn. I missed out on a classic showdown. No Marbles, down for a round in another thread? I'll lead off.

[tdawg87]

So, do I clean up two pages or just throw the entire thread away?

 

No this was a good thread. I wouldn't throw the whole thing out.

[Docwaukee]

So, do I clean up two pages or just throw the entire thread away?

 

Nah.  Just let that dude continue to sink himself. 

[tdawg87]

Nah.  Just let that dude continue to sink himself. 

 

I can't possibly get any lower doc.

[Docwaukee]

I can't possibly get any lower doc.

I loves me some tdawg.