A Case to Stand Pat

[fan_since79]

What were you like in the 80's and 90's? FS79, it isn't as bad as you think it is.

 

Okay, I'll grant you that.

 

But it's still bad until proven otherwise, and that would require making the playoffs. One more year on the outside looking in is not acceptable.

[mtangelsfan]

That is one thing this board doesn't understand.   Pujols Hamilton Wilson mean jack S$*T if the team still doesn't make the playoffs.   Arte isn't stupid, he isn't going to keep throwing more bad money after bad money.  This offseason was a clear indicator of the direction this team is taking.  They are cutting their losses.  And if you really think Trout will get 300 million here?  LMFAO.  He better get on his hands and knees now and start begging Pujols for some of his coin. 

 

Trout is gone.

 

Gah, I can't stand the whole "voice of reason" style posts.  Dude, you are not special or singular.  You are not the voice of reason on here.  The board does not think one collective way.  There are many different opinions here.

[Tavon Brown]

Gah, I can't stand the whole "voice of reason" style posts.  Dude, you are not special or singular.  You are not the voice of reason on here.  The board does not think one collective way.  There are many different opinions here.

Another personal attack post on me.  That is 2 today.  LMAO.

[mtangelsfan]

Another personal attack post on me.  That is 2 today.  LMAO.

 

Your reading comprehension is a little weak.  That is now two.

[Halos of Anaheim]

Ok, so here we are, exactly where I thought we would be. Tanaka signs somewhere else so now if we sign someone like Garza, he is sloppy seconds. Despite the fact that he is a legitimate #3 pitcher. We live in a world, the Marsaka world, where players are either great, or they suck. If you think the Angels won't offer Trout a big contract then you are delusional. Lastly Pujols and Hamilton destroyed the Angels chances last year, along with the pitching. That doesn't mean Pujols and Hamilton won't come back and have very good years this year.

That's a pretty subjective statement. He's more like a legitimate #4, and a decent to average #3. Injuries, his history in the AL recently and his age should give you no reason to think that he'll be a ''legitimate'' #3 pitcher for us. 

[Stradling]

So Tanaka is now No Marbles, great. I am guessing the No Marbles is a shot at the Angels for not signing Tanaka. Wow, you are a special kind of person.

[ettin]

Honestly lets call a spade a spade here.   Pujols and Hamilton destroyed this team.  Trout.  Forget about it.  Angels are not a big market team.

 

Generally people define a "big market team" as an organization that is in a high population marketing area that is willing to spend money on big-name free agent players or in acquiring quality, high-priced trade targets.

 

If you go by that definition then the Angels are certainly a big market team. Pujols, Hamilton, Wilson, et. al. were all big signings when compared to what other teams did over the past couple of years.

 

I don't disagree necessarily with your thoughts on Pujols and Hamilton but I think your last statement is incorrect.

 

[floplag]

i love it... 84 win team, then what was the point of even going after Tanaka?  lets assume hes hits a 3-4 WAR... would 89 have been good enough? 

[Tavon Brown]

Generally people define a "big market team" as an organization that is in a high population marketing area that is willing to spend money on big-name free agent players or in acquiring quality, high-priced trade targets.

 

If you go by that definition then the Angels are certainly a big market team. Pujols, Hamilton, Wilson, et. al. were all big signings when compared to what other teams did over the past couple of years.

 

I don't disagree necessarily with your thoughts on Pujols and Hamilton but I think your last statement is incorrect.

 

Every few years teams make stupid big signing moves.  Doesn't make them big market.  Just a knee jerk by desperate ownership.   Cano Mariners.  Mo Vaughn Angels.

[Stradling]

That's a pretty subjective statement. He's more like a legitimate #4, and a decent to average #3. Injuries, his history in the AL recently and his age should give you no reason to think that he'll be a ''legitimate'' #3 pitcher for us.

You are absolutely right it is subjective. I guess I look at the term legitimate differently. Or I look at third starter differently. I say sign him if you can get him for what Fletcher suggested. If he wants more you look elsewhere. I like the chances of Richards coming into his own. Also, I would love to see Santiago put up the ERA he put up last year, that could translate to more of a #3.

[Inside Pitch]

Since Dipoto's job is on the line, expect them to put all their chips in(again) to try and compete

 

At least this year it looks like they'll finally have a 1st rd pick to help give their farm a blue chip prospect to add to it

 

If they tank but Dipoto is able to bring in talent at the deadline -- they would be stupid to fire the guy.

[Stradling]

i love it... 84 win team, then what was the point of even going after Tanaka? lets assume hes hits a 3-4 WAR... would 89 have been good enough?

For the playoffs, pretty close, I would say.

[Tavon Brown]

For the playoffs, pretty close, I would say.

So what side of the fence are you on?  Do you want the Angels to compete or just exist? 

[Stradling]

Every few years teams make stupid big signing moves. Doesn't make them big market. Just a knee jerk by desperate ownership. Cano Mariners. Mo Vaughn Angels.

Yes, the Mo Vaughn Angels were a mid market team. This isn't a mid market team anymore. They have one of the biggest TV contracts in baseball to go along with a pretty good attendance. If you want to continue to talk out of your ass (personal attack) then feel free. But, understand you will have others come at you, just like they did when you said you guarantee Tanaka would be an Angel.

[floplag]

For the playoffs, pretty close, I would say.

89 hadnt been enough to get a WC since 2010, so close yes i suppose but the last couple years its taken 92, 93ish

[Stradling]

So what side of the fence are you on? Do you want the Angels to compete or just exist?

The Angels will compete this year, plain and simple. Obviously it does depend on health, but with even average health this team will win over 85 games. I see a nice bounce back year defensively and a much healthier season overall. I also believe the bullpen, while not complete by any stretch, will be MUCH better than last year.

[Angel Oracle]

I might go with the next best thing to standing pat....add Capuano and another solid reliever (not Balfour).

 

The main knock on Capuano is that he tended to be a feast or famine starter in 2013.

From May 2013 to August 2013 as a fulltime starter, he had EIGHT starts allowing 0 or 1 earned run and SIX starts allowing 5 earned runs.

He does have good control, a foreign thought to most on this pitching staff. 

 

Also, Capuano could also assume that utility role that some are wanting Santiago to have. 

If Skaggs wows the team in ST and is truly ready after the tweak in his delivery back to what it was here before, I could see Capuano as the utility guy and Weaver, Wilson, Richards, Santiago, and Skaggs the starters.

Capuano has relief pitching experience, pitching out of the Raviners pen in April and September and also in one ALDS game vs the Braves.

 

Santiago, judging by articles, has a good head for pitching and good stuff, and had a rock solid 2013. 

Edited January 22, 2014 by Angel Oracle

[Halos of Anaheim]

You are absolutely right it is subjective. I guess I look at the term legitimate differently. Or I look at third starter differently. I say sign him if you can get him for what Fletcher suggested. If he wants more you look elsewhere. I like the chances of Richards coming into his own. Also, I would love to see Santiago put up the ERA he put up last year, that could translate to more of a #3.

I agree with you, I just think he'll end up providing us #4 starter production during his stay here. Not saying there's anything wrong with that, since we have guys like Skaggs/Santiago/Richards with potential to be #3 guys or above, but paying him like a #3 when we could get somebody for around the same next year (with more years though) who would provide #3 stuff would be a questionable, and possibly regrettable decision. 

[Stradling]

NoMarbles, you have a PM.

[Stradling]

89 hadnt been enough to get a WC since 2010, so close yes i suppose but the last couple years its taken 92, 93ish

Yea, I know, but if things break the right way, or if say the A's have a down year, then 90 wins or so could get us in.

[Chuck]

Honestly lets call a spade a spade here.   Pujols and Hamilton destroyed this team.  Trout.  Forget about it.  Angels are not a big market team.

 

I would not say this yet. 3 years from now, maybe.

[Tavon Brown]

I would not say this yet. 3 years from now, maybe.

I agree chuck 1000%.  I am just heated.  I need to take some time away today.  I wanted Tanaka so bad.  Everyone here knew it.   I just want the Angels to be better.  And I am worried we aren't any better.

I was 100% for Santiago and Skaggs.  I agreed with you about Ibanez.  I just was hoping we would get a lock down starter.   At this point I will be happy with Garza. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

FYI, here's a spreadsheet to show the Angels payroll against the luxury tax threshold....

 

It includes a lot of estimates, the big one of course is Trout's future salary. I'm putting him down for a $23M AAV with his extension, starting next year. If he doesn't take the money and gets a one-year deal next year, it'll be closer to $9-11M.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqaE8E5tHZtndEZhbS0zbzMwWnVjRXo3T0VkMHNGd0E&single=true&gid=0&output=html

[stormngt]

Ok, so here we are, exactly where I thought we would be. Tanaka signs somewhere else so now if we sign someone like Garza, he is sloppy seconds. Despite the fact that he is a legitimate #3 pitcher. We live in a world, the Marsaka world, where players are either great, or they suck. If you think the Angels won't offer Trout a big contract then you are delusional. Lastly Pujols and Hamilton destroyed the Angels chances last year, along with the pitching. That doesn't mean Pujols and Hamilton won't come back and have very good years this year.

If the Angels offer Trout 30 million AAV than Dipoto should be fired.

 

AND if Trout leaves, everyone should be fired.  I have said this before but people just want to ignore logic.  Now pay attention.

 

Could Trout get 30 million a year IF he was a free agent this year????  Possibly.  However, he isn't a free agent for another four years.

 

2014 he is guaranteed 500K  

2015 we can only guess but a safe guess would be 10 million.  I am assuming that is a record for year one arbitration

2016 I would guess around 16 million.  And assuming that is a record year two arbitration.

2017 I am guessing 20 million.  Again a record cor year three arbitration

 

That is 46.5 million for four years.  Now lets say we give trout his 30 million for the next six years.  that is a 180 million and 226.5 over a ten year period.  You see that people, Even if Trout maxes his value he isn't getting more than 226.5 over the next ten years.  That is a 22.65 AAV not 30 million.  So please stop using that number.  

 

Oh for those who think Trout wouldn't take it wake up.  UNLESS TROUT IS MISERABLE, there is no way he is turning down 226 million guaranteed when nothing is guaranteed for the next four years.  You guys must think injuries do not happen. 

[HaloFan85]

A big assumptions I'm going to make here.  Arte does not want to go over the CBT cap.  He didn't this year, so I think it's fair to assume he won't want to in the future.  

 

So where does it lead us.  Right now, I have the Angels for CBT purposes at a conservative $166 million.  If it puts you at the current players tab, change it to the CBT salary tab.  

I have the AAV currently at $165,560,500.  As for how I came to my total:

 

I have Trout's current salary equal to last year's at $510K.

 

I also used the exact total amount for the 15 players making the minor league minimum which comes to $1.2225M.

 

As for the 1/30th share, the other day MLBN was using $11.5M when trying to come up with the AAV for the Yanks or Dogs (can't remember which team).  They didn't note it as an estimate, and since I couldn't find confirmation, I figured I'd just use it for now.

 

Other than that, and probably the biggest difference is since the Angels owe $28.1M in total to the Yanks for Wells's last two years, I just used $14.05M for CBT purposes.