A Case to Stand Pat

[gotbeer]

A big assumptions I'm going to make here.  Arte does not want to go over the CBT cap.  He didn't this year, so I think it's fair to assume he won't want to in the future.  

 

So where does it lead us.  Right now, I have the Angels for CBT purposes at a conservative $166 million.  If it puts you at the current players tab, change it to the CBT salary tab.  

 

Say you add Garza for $14 million.  Looks good right, $180 million, under the cap.  

 

But then look at 2015.  2015 I already have us projected at $146 million.  Add Garza's $14 million.  That puts us at $160 million.  Still wiggle room.  Trout can get $10 million in arbitration, or if you sign him to a long term deal.....that would put the Angels CBT at $170 million to $178 million assuming Trouts long term deal is $18 million average per.  Leaves you with less than $11 million in wiggle room, when starting pitchers should be better on the FA market.

 

2016.  $133 million + $14 million for Garza + $14-$18 for Trout = $161 - $165 million

 

2017?  We lose Weaver and CJ.  And Callhoun should be in year one of arb.  Other than that, we are at $83 million + 14 for garza and $18 for Trout = $115 million

 

This team is not built well for the long haul.  But it's just something to consider when talking about signing Garza.  

[Chimi]

I think this is Kendrick's last year as Angel. He either gets traded at the deadline or in the offseason.

[Angels Never Die]

I go back and forth in whether we have to put all our chips into competing right now, or err on the side of re-building/less commitments and hope our current rosters has what it takes to compete right now. It's a tough call, I'm glad I don't have to make it.

[Halos of Anaheim]

I think you just proved why we need to go all in these next 3 years.

[Hubs]

I have a spreadsheet going forward because I got irritated with everyone saying the Angels had too much money committed and getting the figures wrong.

 

I've got them at just under $170M for this year. 

 

For 2015, With Trout getting $12M in arbitration, plus all other arbitration raises, they're at $162. 

 

For 2016, With Trout getting $18M in arbitration, plus all other arbitration raises, they're at $151.75.

 

For 2017, With Trout getting as much as $30M in a contract extension, I've got them at $124.

 

For 2018, I'm guessing less than $90. Yet they will sign and extend other players between now and then, and the arbitration awards are all estimated.

 

Think about it this way, after 2018, the only Angels that are likely on the 2014 team that will also likely be on the 2019 team are Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun, and Tyler Skaggs. Everyone else will have had their contract expire, or gone through all of their arbitration years, etc. It's possible Green could be around, but I find that unlikely, though he'd be on the same schedule as Skaggs and Calhoun as far as eligibility is concerned.

 

There are players who could sign extensions and such, but most likely in five seasons, most guys will be gone.

 

From 2009, the only Angels who are left on the team are Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and Jered Weaver. In 2010, Conger, Romine, Jepsen, and Kohn made their debuts. In 2011, Trout and Richards debuted. 

 

Most of the 2014 team then, 16 players or more, will have less than two full seasons with the Angels. 

[floplag]

i dont think the issue is going over or not, its going over for the right reason/person.

i dont doubt Arte wants to win, i think hes proven that regardless of how the deals ahve worked out hes shown hes willing to spend.

is it worth going over for a Garza type guy.. i wouldnt.

[fan_since79]

No decent starters after Weaver and C.J. (Blanton lurking as our #5 once again)

Hamilton supposedly bigger, but probably not smarter. Odds are he'll he swinging at everything.

Pujols one year older from whatever age he really was last year.

Freese coming back from injuries.

Aybar, Kendrick better? Can't count on that.

Bullpen still a question mark. Burnett injured again.

Micromanaging Mike still in the dugout.

 

Stand pat and win 84 games. Yep, that's the ticket.

 

 

 

[Halos of Anaheim]

 

No decent starters after Weaver and C.J. (Blanton lurking as our #5 once again)

Hamilton supposedly bigger, but probably not smarter. Odds are he'll he swinging at everything.

Pujols one year older from whatever age he really was last year.

Freese coming back from injuries.

Aybar, Kendrick better? Can't count on that.

Bullpen still a question mark. Burnett injured again.

Micromanaging Mike still in the dugout.

 

Stand pat and win 84 games. Yep, that's the ticket.

 

 

 

 

This is pretty much my mindset minus the bolded until proven otherwise. Can't really blame anybody for thinking this way.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Halos of Anaheim

[Tavon Brown]

Honestly lets call a spade a spade here.   Pujols and Hamilton destroyed this team.  Trout.  Forget about it.  Angels are not a big market team.

[Stradling]

No decent starters after Weaver and C.J. (Blanton lurking as our #5 once again)

Hamilton supposedly bigger, but probably not smarter. Odds are he'll he swinging at everything.

Pujols one year older from whatever age he really was last year.

Freese coming back from injuries.

Aybar, Kendrick better? Can't count on that.

Bullpen still a question mark. Burnett injured again.

Micromanaging Mike still in the dugout.

Stand pat and win 84 games. Yep, that's the ticket.

I love your optimism.

[fan_since79]

Oh, and J.B. Shuck probably our starting left fielder.

[Stradling]

Honestly lets call a spade a spade here. Pujols and Hamilton destroyed this team. Trout. Forget about it. Angels are not a big market team.

I don't understand this post at all, after the Pujols and Hamilton part. So if Pujols and Hamilton play well this year and both have impactful (in a positive way) seasons, did they still destroy this team? I think the fact that the Angels signed both of those guys show they are a big market team. Your post is a riddle.

[fan_since79]

I love your optimism.

 

35 years of Angels fandom does things to one's optimism.

[Stradling]

Oh, and J.B. Shuck probably our starting left fielder.

Now you are just being stupid. I know you hate Scioscia, so that is why you say this, but it is not going to happen. Oh and if it does, then Calhoun has no one to blame but himself for having the shitty spring training that it would require for this to actually happen.

[Stradling]

35 years of Angels fandom does things to one's optimism.

Yea, I have been a fan for about that long, but you act like this is the god awful team of the 90's. This team has the best player in the game and two very solid starting pitchers. They also have a lot of potential with the other three starters that are all young. They have two guys that could easily come back and play at a collective 8-10 WAR that were pretty bad last year. I know you are correlating spending money to expectations, but this team is not nearly as bad as you imagine them to be.

[nando714]

No decent starters after Weaver and C.J. (Blanton lurking as our #5 once again)

Hamilton supposedly bigger, but probably not smarter. Odds are he'll he swinging at everything.

Pujols one year older from whatever age he really was last year.

Freese coming back from injuries.

Aybar, Kendrick better? Can't count on that.

Bullpen still a question mark. Burnett injured again.

Micromanaging Mike still in the dugout.

Stand pat and win 84 games. Yep, that's the ticket.

Just keepin it real....feel the same way.

[bloodbrother]

I go back and forth in whether we have to put all our chips into competing right now, or err on the side of re-building/less commitments and hope our current rosters has what it takes to compete right now. It's a tough call, I'm glad I don't have to make it.

 

Since Dipoto's job is on the line, expect them to put all their chips in(again) to try and compete

 

At least this year it looks like they'll finally have a 1st rd pick to help give their farm a blue chip prospect to add to it

[Tavon Brown]

I don't understand this post at all, after the Pujols and Hamilton part. So if Pujols and Hamilton play well this year and both have impactful (in a positive way) seasons, did they still destroy this team? I think the fact that the Angels signed both of those guys show they are a big market team. Your post is a riddle.

 

Maybe I need to clarify here.  By them not producing, Arte busted and failed on his gamble.  Hence they destroyed this team.   It was an honest to goodness good gamble.  One that did not pay off.   

 

Destroyed meaning, ticket sales will not pick up with another losing season.  Money won't be there for Tanaka, Trout or anyone else for that matter.   Heck they even dumped the same salary in Trumbo,

I don't even know if we can sign sloppy seconds in Garza at this point.

[fan_since79]

I don't hate Scioscia. He seems like a nice enough fellow. I just hate some of the things he does as a manager and some of the philosophy behind it.

 

And he does favor veterans and seems to like Shuck a lot. I hope he starts Calhoun, but as you said, Kole will have to have a good ST. That's the pressure which bears on the kids around here.

Case in point: Bourjos.

[fan_since79]

Yea, I have been a fan for about that long, but you act like this is the god awful team of the 90's. This team has the best player in the game and two very solid starting pitchers. They also have a lot of potential with the other three starters that are all young. They have two guys that could easily come back and play at a collective 8-10 WAR that were pretty bad last year. I know you are correlating spending money to expectations, but this team is not nearly as bad as you imagine them to be.

 

Four straight years of missing the playoffs, in more or less excruciating fashion, when much more was expected by all concerned, is bad. Period.

[Tavon Brown]

I am sorry if I don't think Santiago will come in with his superman cape on and save the day by making Pujols/Hamilton hit again.   Seriously if Santiago turns out to be avg and Skaggs can't get out of the minors.  Fans are going to be pissed that Trumbo was traded to save a couple of bucks.

[Tavon Brown]

Four straight years of missing the playoffs, in more or less excruciating fashion, when much more was expected by all concerned, is bad. Period.

That is one thing this board doesn't understand.   Pujols Hamilton Wilson mean jack S$*T if the team still doesn't make the playoffs.   Arte isn't stupid, he isn't going to keep throwing more bad money after bad money.  This offseason was a clear indicator of the direction this team is taking.  They are cutting their losses.  And if you really think Trout will get 300 million here?  LMFAO.  He better get on his hands and knees now and start begging Pujols for some of his coin. 

 

Trout is gone.

[Stradling]

Maybe I need to clarify here. By them not producing, Arte busted and failed on his gamble. Hence they destroyed this team. It was an honest to goodness good gamble. One that did not pay off.

Destroyed meaning, ticket sales will not pick up with another losing season. Money won't be there for Tanaka, Trout or anyone else for that matter. Heck they even dumped the same salary in Trumbo,

I don't even know if we can sign sloppy seconds in Garza at this point.

Ok, so here we are, exactly where I thought we would be. Tanaka signs somewhere else so now if we sign someone like Garza, he is sloppy seconds. Despite the fact that he is a legitimate #3 pitcher. We live in a world, the Marsaka world, where players are either great, or they suck. If you think the Angels won't offer Trout a big contract then you are delusional. Lastly Pujols and Hamilton destroyed the Angels chances last year, along with the pitching. That doesn't mean Pujols and Hamilton won't come back and have very good years this year.

[Stradling]

Four straight years of missing the playoffs, in more or less excruciating fashion, when much more was expected by all concerned, is bad. Period.

What were you like in the 80's and 90's? FS79, it isn't as bad as you think it is.

[Tavon Brown]

Ok, so here we are, exactly where I thought we would be. Tanaka signs somewhere else so now if we sign someone like Garza, he is sloppy seconds. Despite the fact that he is a legitimate #3 pitcher. We live in a world, the Marsaka world, where players are either great, or they suck. If you think the Angels won't offer Trout a big contract then you are delusional. Lastly Pujols and Hamilton destroyed the Angels chances last year, along with the pitching. That doesn't mean Pujols and Hamilton won't come back and have very good years this year.

You all said we aren't getting Tanaka.  Well here I am right now.  Angels aren't spending a dime on Garza.  BOOK IT.  They are in $$$$$$ saving mode now.