OC Register: Angels’ Shohei Ohtani faces questions about future in wake of elbow injury

[AngelsWin.com]

The baseball world was rocked when the Angels announced on Wednesday night that two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani suffered a serious elbow injury that has put his entire pitching career in jeopardy.

Ohtani has a torn ulnar collateral ligament, the same injury that led him to have Tommy John surgery in 2018. Although the Angels and Ohtani were still deciding if he would opt to have surgery again, the situation raises a handful of questions.

Were the Angels negligent by having Ohtani pitch?

After General Manager Perry Minasian announced the diagnosis on Wednesday, he was asked several different times in several different ways if the Angels suspected, or should have suspected, that something was wrong with Ohtani before they sent him to the mound on Wednesday.

Minasian was unequivocal that Ohtani did not give them any indication he was having any type of pain that might suggest an injury. He said repeatedly that Ohtani had only mentioned cramping, fatigue, a blister and a cracked nail in the previous months.

The Angels allowed Ohtani to skip his previous turn when he merely mentioned fatigue, so it’s not logical to think they would have dismissed his mention of pain.

“Today is the first day of any complaint of any type of pain,” Minasian said.

Minasian was not asked specifically if the Angels had Ohtani undergo an MRI in the previous two weeks, based solely on his description of fatigue.

It also wouldn’t make sense for Ohtani himself to keep it a secret, because he had so much to lose personally, with free agency looming.

Ohtani did not speak to the media following the diagnosis on Wednesday.

What is the prognosis for a second Tommy John surgery?

About 25-30% of major league pitchers end up having Tommy John surgery, and a small fraction of those end up having a second procedure.

Texas Rangers ace Jacob deGrom is the most notable pitcher currently rehabbing from his second Tommy John. Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler is currently working his way back from his second procedure.

Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon and Chicago White Sox right-hander Mike Clevinger are among the most prominent current pitchers who have recovered from a second Tommy John surgery to become productive major league starters again.

The time frame for recovery from a first Tommy John surgery is typically 12 to 18 months, but it can be longer for a second.

Dr. Rick Lehman of the U.S. Center for Sports Medicine, addressed the risks in an interview to discuss DeGrom’s surgery in June.

“A second Tommy John surgery is not like the first,” Lehman said. “I may be able to come back. I may not be able to come back and I’m certainly not going to perform as well as I did before I had my second TJ.”

If Ohtani has the surgery sometime in the next month, he will probably not be able to pitch again until 2025. He will turn 31 in the middle of the 2025 season.

There is also a new “internal brace” procedure in which the ligament is repaired using collagen-coated suture tape instead of tissue transplanted from elsewhere in the patient’s body. The recovery for that surgery can be 6-9 months, but there is limited history on that procedure working in lieu of Tommy John surgery for pitchers.

What if he opts against having the surgery?

There are non-surgical treatments, like platelet-rich plasma injections and stem-cell therapy. Ohtani tried both of those in 2018, and they merely delayed his surgery by a few months.

At that time, Angels GM Billy Eppler said Ohtani could have just skipped all the treatment if he wanted to just be a DH.

Ohtani continued to hit – with a torn UCL – for the rest of the 2018 season. He even hit two home runs on the September day when he learned he needed surgery. He hit a homer on Wednesday just minutes before throwing his fateful final pitch.

It is possible Ohtani could just scrap being a pitcher and go along as a DH with no issues.

However, Ohtani endured his two worst offensive seasons in 2019 and 2020, when he was limited to DH duty. Many around him suggested that he was not happy when he had nothing to do except hit. Former Angels hitting coach Jeremy Reed said Ohtani took so many swings in the cage it was detrimental to his performance.

If Ohtani were to give up on pitching, he likely would learn a defensive position. He worked out in the outfield and at first base when he couldn’t pitch in 2020.

If Ohtani were to do that, then he would likely still need the surgery, but the rehab wouldn’t be as long.

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Bryce Harper had Tommy John surgery on Nov. 23, 2022. He returned to the lineup as a DH in about five months. It took another couple of months for him to be able to play first base. He still has not played outfield.

What does this mean for his free agency?

It seemed a lock that Ohtani was going to surpass Mike Trout’s record $426.5 million deal, simply because he was going to get the salary of two premium players, a starting pitcher and a hitter.

Now, his future as a pitcher is in doubt. If he’s merely a DH, even the best one in the majors, he could be looking at $25 million a year. J.D. Martinez, the last pure DH to hit the market in his prime, signed a five-year, $110 million deal five years ago.

Ohtani could increase that value by learning a position. It’s likely he’d become competent as an outfielder or a first baseman, but this winter teams won’t know how to put a price tag on that, because he’s never done it.

If Ohtani commits to continuing his pitching career, a team will certainly pay for that potential, but they won’t pay him as much because of the risk.

Does this help the Angels re-sign him?

In a weird way, this might be a good thing for the Angels’ chances of re-signing Ohtani.

Obviously, he’s not going to cost as much now. Also, if he’s going through a rehab period, Ohtani might decide that he’s more comfortable doing that in a place where he’s done it before.

Can he still win the MVP award this season?

Absolutely, and he probably still will.

Ohtani has a WAR of 8.5, according to FanGraphs. The next closest in the American League is Rangers shortstop Corey Seager, at 5.0.

Ohtani has already surpassed the FanGraphs WAR of 8.0 that he had in 2021, when he was the unanimous MVP.

Also, it’s possible that Ohtani still adds to his offensive numbers over the final month, even though he can’t pitch. He has hit an MLB-leading 44 homers – Luis Robert is second with 33 – and he’s got an OPS of 1.069.

UP NEXT

Angels (LHP Patrick Sandoval, 6-10, 4.08) at Mets (RHP Kodai Senga, 10-6, 3.19), Friday, 4:10 p.m., Bally Sports West, 830 AM

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[T.G.]

18 minutes ago, AngelsWin.com said:

The time frame for recovery from a first Tommy John surgery is typically 12 to 18 months, but it can be longer for a second.

Ugh.

19 minutes ago, AngelsWin.com said:

“A second Tommy John surgery is not like the first,” Lehman said. “I may be able to come back. I may not be able to come back and I’m certainly not going to perform as well as I did before I had my second TJ.”

Yeesh.

[DMVol]

I don't think teams are going to make him an offer based on being a two way player....just too much uncertainty about pitching....short term deal? Maybe, but he is 30 next year and you won't know how he will respond until 2025 at the earliest...If I were Ohtani, I might sign a deal with an opt out after 2024, to give him time to rehab and maybe show what he could (or couldn't) do as a pitcher....

[Tyler]

Pretty much locks Ohtani up as an Angel. Imagine him having been traded at the deadline….at least this fan base is used to being let down. Superstar player but he does need a lot of care and handling and free rein to do whatever he wants and this organization will definitely do it more than most while giving him the dollar he wants. 
 

 

 

[T.G.]

At the end of the day this is a sad development for Ohtani the person.  I can't imagine what is going through his mind right now.

We had a front row seat to the greatest baseball show ever and we watched something truly unique and special.  The word "awesome" is often over used, but that's exactly what Ohtani has been.

His quest to become the best baseball player on the planet was fun to watch. 

I have no idea what is next for him, but I wish him the best. He's truly a humble human being who handled the spotlight with the utmost class.  He never acted like he was bigger than the game. 

I hope he comes back from this in a huge way and continues to exceed expectations.  I know I wouldn't bet against him.

[AngelFanInTheATL]

Taking his word for it on "fatigue" and not having some kind of test (MRI) on him and then letting him pitch is a pretty bad look for the coaching and medical staff.

 

[Angels in 2030]

Such bad timing for Ohtani.  It's too bad...for him.  His FA this offseason now becomes even more interesting.

This is yet another reason he should have been traded during the last 12 months.  SP themselves are super prone now to arm injuries.  Adding onto it a guy who is a legit everyday MOTO slugger....doing both is simply not sustainable on the human body.  Dude is a unicorn for doing it as much as he has during his career.  

I'm not so sure the medical staff is 100% to blame.  Ohtani is very competitive and wants to win badly.  I'm sure he was pushing to play/pitch as much as possible.  

[fan_since79]

They need to bring in a whole new medical and conditioning staff. Coaches too. A whole new slate.

And Nevin has to go. Just rebuild the whole organization.

Arte, take your billions in profit and retire. Please!

[No Roles]

this is beyond devastating...

[stormngt]

42 minutes ago, Skips said:

Such bad timing for Ohtani.  It's too bad...for him.  His FA this offseason now becomes even more interesting.

This is yet another reason he should have been traded during the last 12 months.  SP themselves are super prone now to arm injuries.  Adding onto it a guy who is a legit everyday MOTO slugger....doing both is simply not sustainable on the human body.  Dude is a unicorn for doing it as much as he has during his career.  

I'm not so sure the medical staff is 100% to blame.  Ohtani is very competitive and wants to win badly.  I'm sure he was pushing to play/pitch as much as possible.  

This is a good reason why his agent should have been open to an extension.  

[Angelsjunky]

Maybe the Angels should think about converting him to an outfielder. Probably couldn’t do it next year (if he can’t pitch, he probably can’t throw), but he’d probably pick it up quickly and maybe getting to a place where he has to throw the occasional rocket from RF to home plate wouldn’t require full on TJS.

[Blarg]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Maybe the Angels should think about converting him to an outfielder. Probably couldn’t do it next year (if he can’t pitch, he probably can’t throw), but he’d probably pick it up quickly and maybe getting to a place where he has to throw the occasional rocket from RF to home plate wouldn’t require full on TJS.

First off there are no half measures in Tommy John surgery. The tear never heals so his arm would be Johnny Damon until it is corrected. There is no use for Johnny Damon in right field. 

This was discussed before about Ohtani having outfield experience in Japan but that was when he was 18 years old and logged as many games as Jo Adell did at the same age. The outfield is not that easy to learn. Sure, he could study it, work with trainers, get the fly ball practice once his right arm can handle mobilization but none of that would come to fruition until 2025 when he can throw the baseball. And if he can throw a baseball he can pitch and he is worth far more as a starter on the mound than right fielder with no real in game experience. 

Then it becomes a question of what his market value is as an established Pitcher/DH/MVP or a rookie right fielder needing surgery. There are no 10 year $500 million dollar contracts for apprentice right fielders, even if they can break Judge's single season home run record, that can't play in the field. So far there are no 10 year $500 million dollar contracts for a pitcher needing a second UCL surgery.

So where is his value at this point? I don't think there is going to be a bidding war for his services beginning basically in 2025. I don't think any team is risking more than 6 years on a contract nor a salary north of $40 million considering you are eating the first year. 

I am probably wrong because owners and GMs are basically idiots with their money these days.  

[Angelsjunky]

9 minutes ago, Blarg said:

First off there are no half measures in Tommy John surgery. The tear never heals so his arm would be Johnny Damon until it is corrected. There is no use for Johnny Damon in right field. 

Yes, but there are other possible ways to healing the injury, as he tried to do back in 2018. It may be that one of those routes would allow him to throw again, just not 100 times a game.

I'm guessing he's going to try to comeback as a pitcher, but just considering options and possible trajectories.

9 minutes ago, Blarg said:

This was discussed before about Ohtani having outfield experience in Japan but that was when he was 18 years old and logged as many games as Jo Adell did at the same age. The outfield is not that easy to learn. Sure, he could study it, work with trainers, get the fly ball practice once his right arm can handle mobilization but none of that would come to fruition until 2025 when he can throw the baseball. And if he can throw a baseball he can pitch and he is worth far more as a starter on the mound than right fielder with no real in game experience. 

Then it becomes a question of what his market value is as an established Pitcher/DH/MVP or a rookie right fielder needing surgery. There are no 10 year $500 million dollar contracts for apprentice right fielders, even if they can break Judge's single season home run record, that can't play in the field. So far there are no 10 year $500 million dollar contracts for a pitcher needing a second UCL surgery.

So where is his value at this point? I don't think there is going to be a bidding war for his services beginning basically in 2025. I don't think any team is risking more than 6 years on a contract nor a salary north of $40 million considering you are eating the first year. 

I am probably wrong because owners and GMs are basically idiots with their money these days.  

I have no idea, but my guess is that there's still a bidding war for him, but on very short deals -- but also maybe more teams, as his asking price is now much less.

If I'm Shohei, I take a one (or maybe two) year deal from the Angels, see how he recovers. If he can come back in late 2024 and flash good stuff, he might be able to leverage it for a big contract next offseason. But given the uncertainty of the situation, I'm guessing he'd rather just stay at "home" for a year, and then re-assess a year from now.

Either way, he's out 100s of millions of dollars in future contract money.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[Duren, Duren]

It was a real delicate balancing act deferring to Ohtani's wishes on pretty much everything and being totally objective and in control. Understandable because of his baseball and cultural/language uniqueness within the team. And more recently doing what they could to entice him to re-sign. He stood (shouldn't use the past tense but for now, maybe) in his own stratosphere and deserved special treatment. To a degree. 

With his history of arm issues the team really was in a dilemma. They tried tweaking his rotational use but it seems he had the final say about how he was to be used. When the blisters and nail issues emerged it was a day to day ad hoc approach. Rest a little more, come back, see how things went, take him out of games earlier and so on.  No one seemed to think that more serious problems could be immanent.  No one wanted to believe it. With a playoff spot still realistic and a bunch of personal records possible Ohtani and the team just hoped for the best and kept their fingers crossed. 

I don't know the relationship between Ohtani,  team management and their medical representatives but you would think Ohtani's representatives would demand a thorough medical exam, given past surgery and continued stress. Eventually more information will come out about all this. 

It's still just a game, but it's sad that his once once in a lifetime historic path has been compromised. 

As Jim Morrison sang, "the future's uncertain and the end is always near." 

At least financially it will be a significant reduction unless a team has the guts to gamble on his two way eliteness returning in a couple of years. More realistically he still can be a major difference maker at the plate if he stays motivated and possibly plays a position in the near future. Trout is getting top dollar for that, so maybe Ohtani can still cash in close to that range. Likely on a much shorter term.  But his marketing will take a hit too. And once the unicorn factor is cut in half the mystique is tarnished a little.  He still will be an icon, but unfortunately the records he seeks will have to be more modest. 

 

[Angel Oracle]

Because the history on 2nd TJS’s is limited, and he seemed to not like only DHing, the best plan is to get the 2nd surgery and then move to RF where there is a ton less stress on the arm.

He certainly has the speed to play in the OF.   Harper took 5 months until DHing, and then 2 more until back in the OF.

In the meantime, Ohtani can learn to play the OF in practice sessions, once able to catch the ball, and have someone throw the balls back in for him until he can throw the ball himself.

[Blarg]

On 8/24/2023 at 10:49 AM, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, but there are other possible ways to healing the injury, as he tried to do back in 2018.

How did that work out? How many successful PRP for torn UCLs can you point to that didn't end up on a surgeon's table. 

He went down that road and cost himself more time from his career goals. I doubt he is going to take a chance in not playing again for nearly two years because the half measure didn't work. 

[gurn67]

If he can't pitch anymore, than he still becomes the highest paid player, just not for as much money. He can definitely play the outfield. He's probably the best athlete in the game. With his speed he could even play Center. I see him in RF though. That's where he mostly played in Japan.

One thing he knows about the Angels organization, they have always let him do what he wanted. If he wants to pitch again, they will let him do that. Other teams might not.

[Angelsjunky]

39 minutes ago, Blarg said:

How did that work out? How many successful RPR for torn UCLs can you point to that didn't end up on a surgeon's table. 

He went down that road and cost himself more time from his career goals. I doubt he is going to take a chance in not playing again for nearly two years because the half measure didn't work. 

Yeah, I know. But you also presumably read the article and know that the odds aren't great for successfully coming back after a 2nd TJS. I'm just saying that all options should be weighed. If other therapies can get his arm healed enough to throw a ball 3-4 times a game as a RF, it is worth considering.

[Angels 1961]

6 hours ago, T.G. said:

At the end of the day this is a sad development for Ohtani the person.  I can't imagine what is going through his mind right now.

We had a front row seat to the greatest baseball show ever and we watched something truly unique and special.  The word "awesome" is often over used, but that's exactly what Ohtani has been.

His quest to become the best baseball player on the planet was fun to watch. 

I have no idea what is next for him, but I wish him the best. He's truly a humble human being who handled the spotlight with the utmost class.  He never acted like he was bigger than the game. 

I hope he comes back from this in a huge way and continues to exceed expectations.  I know I wouldn't bet against him.

I agree almost 100%. Ohtani will still be playing the game he loves. Maybe he becomes an OF or 1B. Just being a DH his contract will be 300 mill or more. Whatever he decides what to do I also wish him nothing but the best.

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, I know. But you also presumably read the article and know that the odds aren't great for successfully coming back after a 2nd TJS. I'm just saying that all options should be weighed. If other therapies can get his arm healed enough to throw a ball 3-4 times a game as a RF, it is worth considering.

I wouldn’t say the “odds aren’t great.” I would say they are worse than for the first TJ, but still pretty decent. 
 

I expect Ohtani to give it a shot, and if it doesn’t work, then he can move to the OF or 1B. 

[Second Base]

On 8/24/2023 at 4:59 PM, Jeff Fletcher said:

I wouldn’t say the “odds aren’t great.” I would say they are worse than for the first TJ, but still pretty decent. 
 

I expect Ohtani to give it a shot, and if it doesn’t work, then he can move to the OF or 1B. 

I may be misremembering, but I thought that consistent outfield work was ruled out when he came stateside because of the strain of nagging ankle injuries that required surgery. 

[thebloob]

He comes across as humble, but is he?  Look right now.  Why not start the treatment now?  What is there to gain by playing out this season even if no more damage to the arm if not selfish reasons for stat building.  Getting the elbow fixed now starts the rehab process now.  If he heals quickly he could be back in a year for a teams playoff run.  
 

another unicorn question though.  Yes a repaired UCL can bat earlier than throw but if trying to get back to pitching would batting slow down the healing process?

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

I may be misremembering, but I thought that consistent outfield work was ruled out when he came stateside because of the strain of nagging ankle injuries that required surgery. 

I don’t know anything about that. 
 

When he was working out in the OF in 2020, Maddon said how good he looked. At one point we asked him why he stopped playing OF in Japan and he said “maybe I wasn’t very good at it.” We never pursued it obviously because it never came up again. 

[halonatic13]

On 8/24/2023 at 8:58 AM, Tyler said:

Pretty much locks Ohtani up as an Angel. Imagine him having been traded at the deadline….at least this fan base is used to being let down. Superstar player but he does need a lot of care and handling and free rein to do whatever he wants and this organization will definitely do it more than most while giving him the dollar he wants. 
 

 

 

His physical on the new team wouldn't have passed.  There's no way they'd approve the trade at that point.

[Jeff Fletcher]

13 minutes ago, halonatic13 said:

His physical on the new team wouldn't have passed.  There's no way they'd approve the trade at that point.

Teams don’t get to do their own physicals on players before trades. The acquiring team would just get the original teams medical info.