How many wins for the third wildcard

[LaPalma]

Toronto is on pace for 91 wins.  We need to win 33 to get there, out of 46 left. 72%

A lot of people here were saying 87 or 88 would get us in.  Not looking likely.

We have a little momentum, absolute elimination happens in my mind if we hit 75% must win ratio.

Not that we’re likely to win 70% but we’re not completely DOA.

What’s your threshold for throwing in the towel?

[CaliAngel]

12 minutes ago, LaPalma said:

What’s your threshold for throwing in the towel?

I'd say losing 7 games in a row after "going all in" did it for me.

We will be lucky if this team wins 60% of it's remaining games, which gets us at 85/86 wins. 

Not enough to make the playoffs. 

[stormngt]

17 minutes ago, LaPalma said:

Toronto is on pace for 91 wins.  We need to win 33 to get there, out of 46 left. 72%

A lot of people here were saying 87 or 88 would get us in.  Not looking likely.

We have a little momentum, absolute elimination happens in my mind if we hit 75% must win ratio.

Not that we’re likely to win 70% but we’re not completely DOA.

What’s your threshold for throwing in the towel?

F* these threads.  Play one game at a time and win.  Then see what we need.

[Jay]

Angels will need help.

 

[T.G.]

They need to win enoughish

[TroutField]

I’ll say they need at least 92 wins… 

 

With having to jump the Jays, Sox, Yankees, AND Mariners… I think we are done….. 7 game losing streak was the nail in the coffin. 

[greginpsca]

I believe Toronto plays a lot of games in their division the rest of way. So far they have played poorly against their division rivals. That said, the Angels will more than likely have to win 33-35 wins. 

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, CaliAngel said:

I'd say losing 7 games in a row after "going all in" did it for me.

We will be lucky if this team wins 60% of it's remaining games, which gets us at 85/86 wins. 

Not enough to make the playoffs. 

They didn’t go “all in.”  They had a hand they wanted to play and they bet probably 15-20% of their chips.

They made a couple of trades to shore up some spots that needed help, without going all in.

You would have Verlander or Scherzer here if they had gone “all in.”

 

[Angelsjunky]

Here you go:

[Angelsjunky]

Fangraphs has their chances of a playoff berth at 2.5%. I wonder how many teams with a <3% chance on August 10th actually made the playoffs. I suppose the idea is 2-3 out of 100, so presumably once every decade or so. Just a guess.

Anyhow, as a fan of course I haven't fully given up. And really, they could win 5 straight and all of sudden their odds are a non-insignificant number, maybe 10%. So just five more wins (reversing the seven-game loss) and they're 63-58, and "only" need to go 28-13 to get to 91 wins. Very unlikely, but not impossible - especially with Trout et al coming back.

But...we're at 2.5% now, which I think is about right.

[TroutField]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Fangraphs has their chances of a playoff berth at 2.5%. I wonder how many teams with a <3% chance on August 10th actually made the playoffs. I suppose the idea is 2-3 out of 100, so presumably once every decade or so. Just a guess.

Anyhow, as a fan of course I haven't fully given up. And really, they could win 5 straight and all of sudden their odds are a non-insignificant number, maybe 10%. So just five more wins (reversing the seven-game loss) and they're 63-58, and "only" need to go 28-13 to get to 91 wins. Very unlikely, but not impossible - especially with Trout et al coming back.

But...we're at 2.5% now, which I think is about right.

I will say… 6.5 games back after an atrocious 7 game stretch where everything and I mean everything went wrong is not as bad as it seemed. Like you said, we COULD flip the switch and make a run. 
 

a couple days ago it felt like we were 25 games back. 

[Slegnaac]

If they could win all of the remaining series.....

2 out of 3 and 3 out of 4

Going 31 - 15 over the last 46 games, that puts the season total at 89 - 73.

That could make it very close.

[thebloob]

MLB definitely has mission accomplished.  On these boards people talk of meaningful games for a .500 team.  Only the third wild card makes that possible.  How long until MLB expands that even more until everyone but the 3-4 worst teams thinks they are in it until the end. 

[gurn67]

They will have to have a crazy run like the 2002 team did. That team was 67-48 and then went on a 28-10 run including an 18-2 run 

However, at 67-48, that team was already on a 94 win pace. This team has had 3 nice little stretches. One in late April-early May when they went 11-6. One in June when they went 11-3. One more in July when they went 10-3. After all of those stretches, they played like complete dogsh*t and lost all of the ground they had gained, and then some. This is not a good team. It has good players, but they're not a good team. It's been this way since 2016. I don't see it changing in 2023. There's not even a point of even mentioning the words post-season until they are at least 10 games under .500. Otherwise, the discussion should be will this be 9 losing seasons in a row.

[Jeff Fletcher]

6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Fangraphs has their chances of a playoff berth at 2.5%. I wonder how many teams with a <3% chance on August 10th actually made the playoffs.

The 2021 Cardinals were in almost the exact same spot as the Angels. Look it up. 
 

The 2021 Braves were in the same spot as the Angels at the break but they’d already gained a lot of ground by mid August. 

[SoCalDucksFan]

91-92 Wins

2 weeks ago, winning 2 out of every 3 would have been possible to reach that.  Now it will need to be more like 3 of every 4.

[TheLordofOuts]

We will win 92 games and go on an unbelievable post season run for our 2nd Ring.  Alright, guys.  I need to go back to the dispensary. 

[REDneck]

10 hours ago, stormngt said:

F* these threads.  Play one game at a time and win.  Then see what we need.

Some people just need the math.

[Angelsjunky]

8 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The 2021 Cardinals were in almost the exact same spot as the Angels. Look it up. 
 

The 2021 Braves were in the same spot as the Angels at the break but they’d already gained a lot of ground by mid August. 

You're right. The 2021 Cardinals were 53-55 on August 5th when Fangraphs had their playoff chances at 1.5%. They went 37-17 the rest of the way to finish 90-72, including a 17-game winning streak. Crazy. The next best wildcard contender was at 83-79.

2021 Braves: 52-55 on August 1st, went 36-18 the rest of the way. Fangraphs had them at 15.2% on Aug 1. Of course it was a rather weak division, with the 2nd place team at 82-80.

So yeah, it happens - but the Angels have a harder road than the Cardinals or Braves in 2021, due to more good teams ahead of them. The Cardinals only had to reach 84 wins, the Braves 83. The third wildcard is almost certainly going to require 90-92 wins. That's at least 32-14.

But stranger things have happened.

[jsnpritchett]

47 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

You're right. The 2021 Cardinals were 53-55 on August 5th when Fangraphs had their playoff chances at 1.5%. They went 37-17 the rest of the way to finish 90-72, including a 17-game winning streak. Crazy. The next best wildcard contender was at 83-79.

2021 Braves: 52-55 on August 1st, went 36-18 the rest of the way. Fangraphs had them at 15.2% on Aug 1. Of course it was a rather weak division, with the 2nd place team at 82-80.

So yeah, it happens - but the Angels have a harder road than the Cardinals or Braves in 2021, due to more good teams ahead of them. The Cardinals only had to reach 84 wins, the Braves 83. The third wildcard is almost certainly going to require 90-92 wins. That's at least 32-14.

But stranger things have happened.

I don't know about the Cardinals situation in '21, but I know the Braves had a big positive run differential pretty much all year.  They were a better team overall than their record indicated, so it wasn't entirely shocking they went on a run like they did. I think that's the same reason some people think the Padres might end up making the playoffs this year. 

The Angels run differential hasn't been that solid this season, especially if you discount that freaky game against the Rockies (they're +11 overall, but -13 without that game). With or without it, though, their run differential points to a team that should be right around .500, which is exactly where they are. 

[fan_since79]

May I remind everyone that when all seemed lost after we opened the 2002 season 6-14, we proceed to win 21 of our next 24 games.

It can be done.

The 1951 Giants were 14 games back in August and won the pennant. Many other examples in the history of the game.

[Kendo36]

The schedule is what screwed us. Our August schedule is a nightmare for any team. Let alone one that has excessive injuries. If we can just hover around 4-5 games back by september 1st and get fully healthy- Trout, O'hoppe, and hopefully Neto & Rendon we'll make a run. 

[Second Base]

Before the season started I predicted it would take 90 wins to claim a Wild Card spot and the Angels would finish with 86 or 87 wins. 

This is still my prediction. 

[Jay]

22 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

They didn’t go “all in.”  They had a hand they wanted to play and they bet probably 15-20% of their chips.

They made a couple of trades to shore up some spots that needed help, without going all in.

You would have Verlander or Scherzer here if they had gone “all in.”

 

It's quite possible that you are the only person on the planet who thinks the Angels didn't go all-in.

Google Search

 

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, Jay said:

It's quite possible that you are the only person on the planet who thinks the Angels didn't go all-in.

Google Search

 

Yep, pretty much.  They really couldn't have gone any more "all-in" than they did, because they didn't really have the trade pieces to do it.