OC Register: What type of package could the Angels get if they trade Shohei Ohtani?

[AngelsWin.com]

ANAHEIM — Between now and the Aug. 1 trade deadline, the Angels will face one of the most gut-wrenching decisions a baseball team could face.

Should they trade Shohei Ohtani?

The industry expectation is that the Angels will not trade Ohtani, and the team’s current three-game winning streak has only reinforced that. Still, each loss in the next 10 games will raise the volume on the discussion throughout the sport.

The question within the question, then, is what can the Angels get for him?

According to former MLB general manager Jim Duquette and an anonymous current MLB executive, the prospect haul could be limited because Ohtani is a rental, albeit the greatest rental in history.

“There are many teams that will say, ‘I don’t care how good a rental he is, I can’t give you hundreds of millions of dollars of future value,’” the executive said. “That’s going to wipe out a handful of clubs. … I just don’t know where the obvious fit is, where someone is desperate to give that complete overpay.”

Duquette, now an analyst for MLB Network Radio, said the fair market value for Ohtani may not match the perceived value, in the eyes of Angels owner Arte Moreno or fans.

“That’s why it’s so difficult to trade him,” said Duquette. “Anything less and you feel like you’re getting cheated. And you have to sell Arte Moreno, who is one of the most difficult owners in the sport.”

The best comp for an Ohtani trade in recent years is probably a trade in which there were two premium players moved; Ace Max Scherzer and shortstop Trea Turner were traded from the Washington Nationals to the Dodgers at the deadline in 2021.

Scherzer was a rental pitcher, like Ohtani. Turner is obviously not as valuable offensively as Ohtani, but he plays shortstop and — more important — had a whole year of control remaining.

Duquette said it’s “fair” to say Ohtani is worth about the same as Scherzer-Turner, from a pure baseball value perspective. The executive also said that’s “probably pretty good,” in terms of a comparison.

The top prospects in that trade were catcher Keibert Ruiz, who was ranked No. 57 by MLB Pipeline, and right-hander Josiah Gray, who was ranked No. 58. The Nationals also got right-hander Gerardo Carrillo and outfielder Donavan Casey. Neither were considered top prospects.

Gray, an All-Star this season, has a 3.59 ERA after struggling in 2022. Ruiz has been the Nationals’ primary catcher for the last two seasons, providing average offensive production for the position. Carrillo is currently No. 27 in the Nationals system and Casey is unranked.

If the Angels got a similar package for Ohtani, would that be enough to satisfy Moreno or Angels fans?

Duquette doesn’t think so.

“People would be outraged if you look at it that way,” he said. “But that’s the reality. Within the Anaheim fanbase, you’d say that isn’t enough.”

Looking at other deals for premium rental players in the past decade, the highest rated prospect to be moved was infielder Gleyber Torres, who was 28th when the Chicago Cubs moved him to the New York Yankees for closer Aroldis Chapman in 2016.

When the Dodgers acquired right-hander Yu Darvish in 2017, the highest rated player among the three they shipped to the Texas Rangers was outfielder Willie Calhoun (82nd).

The best of the five players the Dodgers shipped the Baltimore Orioles for Manny Machado in 2018 was outfielder Yusniel Diaz (84th).

The Houston Astros traded four players to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2019 for Zack Greinke. The highest rated was outfielder Seth Beer (100th).

Even if you combine the returns from two of those deals to acknowledge that Ohtani is two players, it would still be players from the back end of the top 100 and some quantity of “lottery tickets.”

While the objective “fair” value for Ohtani in a trade might be the Scherzer-Turner return, or less, it doesn’t mean that some emotionally-driven owner or GM from another team won’t still go beyond that.

“Perry doesn’t need a bunch of teams,” the executive said. “He just needs one.”

To determine which teams those might be, start with the contenders who have the most top 100 prospects: the Dodgers (8), Orioles (8), Rangers (5), Milwaukee Brewers (5), San Francisco Giants (4) and Tampa Bay Rays (4).

It would be difficult to imagine Moreno agreeing to trade Ohtani up the freeway to the Dodgers unless they dramatically overpay. The Dodgers are unlikely to do that because they could consider themselves already the favorites to sign him over the winter.

That raises the question of how much 2024 comes into play when teams are deciding what talent they would give up to get Ohtani in 2023.

If a team like the Rays gets Ohtani, they would do so knowing they had almost no chance to re-sign him. However, a team like the Yankees or Boston Red Sox could view an Ohtani deal in terms of giving them a leg up on a deal for 2024.

“I think that’s a huge advantage,” Duquette said.

The executive said a team could not calculate the trade value based on re-signing Ohtani, though.

“I just don’t think it’s realistic that you’re really going to have any feel for whether you can sign this guy long term,” he said.

Unfortunately for the Angels, several of the teams considered prime landing spots for Ohtani as a free agent — the New York Mets, Seattle Mariners and Padres — have played poorly this year. It’s unlikely any of those teams would give up the required prospect capital simply to get two months to woo Ohtani while they miss the playoffs.

“If the Padres were in it, they would be one of (the teams willing to overpay),” the executive said.

The price the Angels would need to get back for Ohtani also likely hinges on how they play. The more the Angels win between now and the deadline, the better they can feel about keeping Ohtani and making a run for the playoffs.

Moreno insisted in spring training that the Angels would not trade Ohtani if they were in contention. FanGraphs calculated their playoff odds at 13.9% on Thursday morning.

Moreno and Minasian have both said they want to keep Ohtani in the long-term, and the Angels believe trading him away in 2023 significantly hurts their chances of re-signing him after the season.

Duquette agreed: “You have a percentage chance (to re-sign him), but if you trade him, no chance.”

All of that is why most around the industry still don’t believe a trade will happen.

“I would be shocked if Arte allowed Perry to trade Ohtani for anything less than a massive trade package,” the executive said. “Even if it’s the right thing to do academically, emotionally that’s going to be such a hard pill to swallow. The Angels are either going to have to sink or Perry is going to have to deliver an incredible value that the Angels can’t say no to.”

UP NEXT

Angels (RHP Shohei Ohtani, 7-5, 3.50) vs. Pirates (RHP Johan Oviedo, 3-10, 4.53), Friday, 6:38 p.m., Angel Stadium, Bally Sports West, 830 AM.

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[VladdyforHOF]

You don't trade him unless it is a total overpay.

[Angel Oracle]

6 minutes ago, VladdyforHOF said:

You don't trade him unless it is a total overpay.

And not a serious WC contender by August 1

[Duren, Duren]

Those percentage odds about making the playoffs change all the time. A winning streak till the deadline should improve those odds. And pretty much assure that he isn't traded. But if they don't get much higher I think it's going to be 50/50 for a trade. 

A last minute panic offer might be tempting. A dark horse may be the Rays. They always have terrible attendence, and even a couple of months of Ohtani will be a goldmine for them. Especially playoff time. And a serious chance to win it all. Again.

They also know how to replenish their system, so even losing a few prospects won't make a major impact long term for them.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

I could see the Grienke deal mentioned above being a good comp. 

We trade Shohei for a Beer. But because Ohtani is a rental, a lesser rated prospect. Or a cheaper Beer.

And Arte once again gets Angel fans cheaper beer.

 

It's my day off and I'm cracking my first of the day. If Shohei is leaving anyway, give me the cheap beer, Arte.

[Second Base]

Ok so Duquette and mystery GM "x" believe he's with two back half Top 100 prospects. 

D-Backs - Roughly speaking, Brandon Pfaadt and Ivan Melendez, though that's very imperfect. Pfaadt will likely be bottom half soon and Melendez won't crack the top 100 but figures to profile as a power bat in the big leagues in some fashion. Not a grade trade unless they want to deal Druw Jones. 

Braves - Don't have the pieces. The closest they could get is something like Soroka and Smith-Shawver and that's not going to work. 

Phillies - Justin Crawford and Mick Abel. Not going to knock your socks off, but it's better than a comp pick. Crawford will be a speedy leadoff type, and Abel will settle in as a #3/4 starter. 

Giants - Luis Matos and Carson Wisenhunt. Again, not overwhelming, but better than the alternative. Matos is an average corner outfielder and Wisenhunt is a solid mid or back end starter. 

Rays - Curtis Mead and Kyle Manzardo. Mead is a Chris Taylor type and Manzardo figures to be a league average 1B. Not a ton of value. 

Orioles - Connor Norby and Coby Mayo. Two slightly above average big league regulars, one in the outfield, one in the infield. 

[Angels 1961]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

And not a serious WC contender by August 1

What is serious 5 or 6 games back? How close do they have to be is big question. With 3 wins against Yankees hope rises again for halo fans.

[TroutField]

I’m not trading him unless it’s for 3-4 of the Orioles’ top 10 including Kjerstad or Cowser, Mayo, and Hall. 

[Stradling]

14 minutes ago, TroutField said:

I’m not trading him unless it’s for 3-4 of the Orioles’ top 10 including Kjerstad or Cowser, Mayo, and Hall. 

Then you aren’t trading him. 

[TroutField]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Then you aren’t trading him. 

That’s fine, we are 4 games out of a playoff spot. My point was it had to be something you can’t say no to. 

[Revad]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

What is serious 5 or 6 games back? How close do they have to be is big question. With 3 wins against Yankees hope rises again for halo fans.

Maybe 6 or 7?  I think Minasain would need to be convinced we were out of it and Artie agree for a trade to happen.  Seems highly unlikely to me.

[fan_since79]

A sweep of the reeling Pirates and the wild card looks a lot better than a week ago. Trout might also return sooner than originally thought. Is O'Hoppe close? I don't want to see Wallach go 0-for-50.

There are other trades to explore apart from Ohtani. 

[Angels 1961]

2 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

A sweep of the reeling Pirates and the wild card looks a lot better than a week ago. Trout might also return sooner than originally thought. Is O'Hoppe close? I don't want to see Wallach go 0-for-50

There are other trades to explore apart from Ohtani. 

Do you trade Renfroe, Moore, Moose or Escobar? Would that hurt halo chances for W/C.

[Angels 1961]

17 minutes ago, Revad said:

Maybe 6 or 7?  I think Minasain would need to be convinced we were out of it and Artie agree for a trade to happen.  Seems highly unlikely to me.

I think Angels must get to 90 to 92 wins to get in.

[warped]

Please don't trade the goat

[Revad]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

I think Angels must get to 90 to 92 wins to get in.

We’d need to go 41-24 to get to 90.  Really need to win the next 5 or six games in a row.

[Angels 1961]

6 minutes ago, Revad said:

We’d need to go 41-24 to get to 90.  Really need to win the next 5 or six games in a row.

Losing Sunday hurt

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, TroutField said:

That’s fine, we are 4 games out of a playoff spot. My point was it had to be something you can’t say no to. 

It's not about just being 4 games out. It's also about the number and quality of teams they'll need to pass in the standings. It's competitive, and the AL Wild Card scene and subsequent trade deadline acquisitions make it such that in order to go to the playoffs, the Angels will need to win at minimum 90 games, probably more. Even at full health they weren't on that place and with half season down, they would need to be the best team in baseball for all of August and September to ensure they cross that threshold. 

[TroutField]

52 minutes ago, Second Base said:

It's not about just being 4 games out. It's also about the number and quality of teams they'll need to pass in the standings. It's competitive, and the AL Wild Card scene and subsequent trade deadline acquisitions make it such that in order to go to the playoffs, the Angels will need to win at minimum 90 games, probably more. Even at full health they weren't on that place and with half season down, they would need to be the best team in baseball for all of August and September to ensure they cross that threshold. 

Red Sox and Yankees without Judge are average. Angels are capable of running down the blue jays and the Astros seem a little off this year. Angels have a bunch of guys coming off the DL and the team has overall under performed all season, in my opinion. 
 

While I’m not betting money on it or holding my breath, it’s at least possible. 

[Second Base]

The Angels are not a better team than the Blue Jays or the Astros, and while I agree with you regarding the evil empires, they still have to a better record. 

Given that each of these teams are already ahead in the standings, it is extremely unlikely the Angels outperform them at all, let alone to the degree necessary to pass them. What are their playoff odds at, 13%? 

If you're following logic and playing the numbers game, which given baseball's obsession with metrics, you probably should, then the smart move is to move Ohtani and anyone else of value and build an incredibly strong farm and return to contention in three years, instead of inflating payroll maintaining a below average farm and achieving perpetual mediocrity. 

[TroutField]

12 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The Angels are not a better team than the Blue Jays or the Astros, and while I agree with you regarding the evil empires, they still have to a better record. 

Given that each of these teams are already ahead in the standings, it is extremely unlikely the Angels outperform them at all, let alone to the degree necessary to pass them. What are their playoff odds at, 13%? 

If you're following logic and playing the numbers game, which given baseball's obsession with metrics, you probably should, then the smart move is to move Ohtani and anyone else of value and build an incredibly strong farm and return to contention in three years, instead of inflating payroll maintaining a below average farm and achieving perpetual mediocrity. 

You know the Angels didn’t end up getting sold and Arte Moreno is still the owner, right? Lol 

[BTH]

12 hours ago, AngelsWin.com said:

the Angels believe trading him away in 2023 significantly hurts their chances of re-signing him after the season.

Duquette agreed: “You have a percentage chance (to re-sign him), but if you trade him, no chance.”

I don’t really understand why trading him would significant hurt their chances of re-signing him after the season.

I understand it if the premise is them trading him means they’re not making the playoffs, and them not making the playoffs means he isn’t signing back with the Angels.

So is that the reason?

Because outside of that, I don’t see how it’d hurt their chances.

Because there’s no indication he’d sign an extension before free agency and the Angels future arguably looks better with an Ohtani trade haul in the org and him re-signing in the offseason.

[Duren, Duren]

Most people think of Babe Ruth when comparable trades were made.

But the greatest player of all time in another sport was also traded around a trade deadline. 

In 1996 Wayne Gretzky was traded from L.A.  to St Louis for 3 players, and  number 1 and number 5 draft picks. None of whom amounted to anything for L.A.. 

Big difference was that Gretzky was 35 and already had been traded once. He still was a very good player, but not the best anymore. St Louis thought that he and Brett Hull playing on the same line  would be the difference going far in the playoffs. But they didn't have a complementary third forward on that line. 

Gretzky played 18 regular season games, and 13 playoff games  decently but not as the difference maker the Blues hoped for. He then left them to go to New York. 

Ohtani, being in his prime won't have age as a factor like Gretzky. And will be expected to produce at around the same pace he now is. And be a difference maker in the playoffs. 

And the chances are sketchy about a deadline trade return having long term impact. 

 

[Ron Mexico]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10083432-shohei-ohtani-trade-rumors-dodgers-not-completely-eliminated-as-deadline-option

[Stradling]

5 hours ago, Trendon said:

I don’t really understand why trading him would significant hurt their chances of re-signing him after the season.

I understand it if the premise is them trading him means they’re not making the playoffs, and them not making the playoffs means he isn’t signing back with the Angels.

So is that the reason?

Because outside of that, I don’t see how it’d hurt their chances.

Because there’s no indication he’d sign an extension before free agency and the Angels future arguably looks better with an Ohtani trade haul in the org and him re-signing in the offseason.

Fletcher has said that the Angels believe trading him would significantly decrease their chances of resigning him. There is probably a reason they believe that.