August 1st, 2023 Trade Deadline: Does Ohtani get traded despite Arte's denials??

[floplag]

15 hours ago, Stradling said:

Ok realistically what do you think they get in a trade for Ohtani?  

Im not going to speculate on  names but you could/should be able to get a couple ML ready guys.. recent call up types with a cup of coffee experience or near ready players that would contribute immediately or very soon. 
A couple of top 100 types which would almost immediately step into our top 5 or fill holes on the ML roster.
Thats what i would target anyway, and its certainly better than a sandwich pick that we wont see for years

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

18 hours ago, floplag said:

Oh well, a sandwich pick after the first round in the draft makes i all soooo much better.   and those players will really help... in a few years. 

But the players you would get in an Ohtani trade are sure things to be All-Stars right away?

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

A couple of top 100 types

No chance you’re getting two top 100 prospects for Ohtani right now. 

[DMVol]

1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

But the players you would get in an Ohtani trade are sure things to be All-Stars right away?

There are very few sure things in baseball.

[Jeff Fletcher]

18 hours ago, floplag said:

Well, you know more than i but from my spot that seems very optimistic.  I guess ill leave it at that 

The one thing I feel the most confident in regarding the whole situation is this:

Ohtani is going to play where he wants to play, even if another team is offering him more money. 
 

The guy doesn’t care about money and has literally no life outside of the ballpark.

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

But the players you would get in an Ohtani trade are sure things to be All-Stars right away?

I didnt say they were, but they will likely be far advanced over a sandwich pick in the draft to contribute.

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

No chance you’re getting two top 100 prospects for Ohtani right now. 

Im curious what you base that one.. similar trades in the past of lesser players have gotten that easily, why are you convinced the best player on the planet only returns fringe prospects? 

[Hubs]

2 hours ago, floplag said:

Im not going to speculate on  names but you could/should be able to get a couple ML ready guys.. recent call up types with a cup of coffee experience or near ready players that would contribute immediately or very soon. 
A couple of top 100 types which would almost immediately step into our top 5 or fill holes on the ML roster.
Thats what i would target anyway, and its certainly better than a sandwich pick that we wont see for years

 

FYI, last year's 1st and 3rd round picks have already been in the majors. 

With the way Perry drafts...and promotes. But we want him to stay anyway, right?

 

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

Im curious what you base that one.. similar trades in the past of lesser players have gotten that easily, why are you convinced the best player on the planet only returns fringe prospects? 

For two months of control, that's not what is returned. Had they traded him last offseason, ok, but they didn't.

And those top 100 guys are usually in A ball or below, its not going to be a Jason Dominguez or Ely De La Cruz.

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The one thing I feel the most confident in regarding the whole situation is this:

Ohtani is going to play where he wants to play, even if another team is offering him more money. 
 

The guy doesn’t care about money and has literally no life outside of the ballpark.

Fair enough, im equally convinced that if he wanted to play here we wouldn't even be having this conversation, he would have already extended, and yet here we are.
I fail to see how one playoff run suddenly changes all that unless you go VERY deep.  But thats the gamble, youre going all in with terrible pot ods. 

[floplag]

OK im going to take my leave of this conversation, its pure speculation, no one knows, but everyone's convinced.
Hes not going to be traded, that seems obvious, and fighting the whole board again isnt what i hoped this conversation would be. 

[Angelsfan1984]

50 minutes ago, floplag said:

OK im going to take my leave of this conversation, its pure speculation, no one knows, but everyone's convinced.
Hes not going to be traded, that seems obvious, and fighting the whole board again isnt what i hoped this conversation would be. 

This is one of those take a look in the mirror moments. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Im curious what you base that one.. similar trades in the past of lesser players have gotten that easily, why are you convinced the best player on the planet only returns fringe prospects? 

First, there's a big gap between "two top 100 prospects" and "only fringe prospects."

I think Ohtani definitely gets you one top 100 prospect, and another decent one (maybe someone in the 100-200 range), and then maybe a third fringe one. That's more than any other single two-month rental player would yield. But it's not so much that it's going to immediately fill holes with sure things. Ultimately you're still just crossing your fingers and hoping.

I keep going back to the Scherzer-Turner deal, because I think that's the closest you can come to approximating Ohtani, and even that's a bad approximation because Turner wasn't a rental and he was a shortstop, and Scherzer was a proven "every 5th day" not "every 6th day" starter.

And for all that, the Nationals got two top 100 prospects. So I find it hard to believe you'd get close to the same return for two months of a pitcher and two months of a DH.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Fair enough, im equally convinced that if he wanted to play here we wouldn't even be having this conversation, he would have already extended, and yet here we are.
I fail to see how one playoff run suddenly changes all that unless you go VERY deep.  But thats the gamble, youre going all in with terrible pot ods. 

There are really two separate questions here, and you're sort of bouncing back and forth in your responses.

1. Does Ohtani want to be an Angel?

You don't think he does. I think he's open to it, at least. Neither of us knows.

2. Will Ohtani sign where he can get the highest offer?

That's the one I'm sure about. It's a definite "not necessarily." I'm not just saying that as it applies to the Angels. I think it applies to all teams. He could sign with the Dodgers for $500M even if the Mets offer $600M because he feels he'd be happier and win more with the Dodgers.

It's going to be the same as the first time he picked a team, just with a few more zeroes. He's going to have 5 or 6 teams that are able to get in the financial ballpark (including the Angels) and after that he's just going to pick where he wants to be, as opposed to picking which of those 5 or 6 writes the biggest check.

So the Angels don't have to be able to outbid the Dodgers/Mets. They just have to convince Ohtani that this is the place he'd be the happiest.

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, floplag said:

Youre smarter than this.  You know very well what "other moves" means. 

Ok but as you said we have no more help coming from the farm.  So what other moves can be made for impact players, when you are trading your most impactful player?  So trading Ohtani and still competing can’t really happen. 

[Duren, Duren]

Depends too on how desperate the other team is. Reverse the scenario. What if the Angels were in a dogfight competing for the playoffs. Not having been in for eight years. And Ohtani was on the other team. Pretty tempting to go all in because it may be their best chance to change the equation. This is the Angel position for not trading him.,

But if they do decide to trade, the various lower contending teams all have their own organizational dynamics and timelines, so those debates would be intense. 

Or if it was a firm playoff team looking for insurance and better World Series odds? And had a good enough farm system and major league depth. Some owners and management figures may be willing to make a realistic offer.

Another thing is that a two month window might acclimatize Ohtani to the new team/city. And make it easier to sign him long term. So it's a chance to preview what the future may be like for both parties. Especially if the team goes deep in the playoffs.

I think the first scenario with the Angels keeping him is most likely. That is, if they are still within a realistic distance of a playoff spot. If the bottom drops out between now and the trade deadline, the collective Angel psyche will be in a depressed state to begin with. And maybe willing to salvage the best deal they can.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

4 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The guy doesn’t care about money and has literally no life outside of the ballpark.

That last part is interesting (and goes along with how he is perceived, and I mean that in a good way)

Trout is similar, at least in terms of comparing him to other young, rich and famous types.

That's the thing about Ohtani that has always stood out, in terms of keeping him. Which sucks for us. But you have to respect it about him. He's super focused on legacy and legend... if he leaves for better opportunities you can't be mad at him.

[Tank]

On 6/20/2023 at 2:31 PM, warped said:

so yes or no?

i wouldn't trade ohtani.

[disarcina]

On 6/20/2023 at 7:50 PM, Hubs said:

Tim when did you become a dodgers fan? Seriously. I’m asking. 

well, I grew asa kid being a Dodgers/ Vin Scully fan (but also Angels/ Dick Enberg - well, mainly Gene Autry)  but got off the bus when O'Malley. sold the club and was pretty much Angels at that point. A lot of it had to do  with Anaheim Stadium being a more family friendly venue for my then Little League aged kids.  I have not been to Dodger Stadium in some 25 years or more - went to a lot of games there 'back in the day' --but I digress.   My take on Ohtani and  ending up in Dodger Blue is not something I am rooting for -- but given the factual scenario my analysis says it's almost inevitable.  I. think most  folks trying to. forecast  Ohtani's landing spot are pointing to Los Angeles/ Chavez Ravine.  Not too many other teams can put up the offer it will take to sign him.     Ohtani - already. an international sensation - will only soar in Hollywood.  So much. so, his considerable contract take may pale in comparison to all the outside merchandising / advertising revenue he pulls in. The guy is on top of the baseball world and has not reached his potential complete upside yet.  He's going to go down as the best ever to play the  game.  Angels / Arte can't afford to sign him long term -- the Dodgers have the financial resources. -  it's that simple.

[Hubs]

12 hours ago, disarcina said:

well, I grew asa kid being a Dodgers/ Vin Scully fan (but also Angels/ Dick Enberg - well, mainly Gene Autry)  but got off the bus when O'Malley. sold the club and was pretty much Angels at that point. A lot of it had to do  with Anaheim Stadium being a more family friendly venue for my then Little League aged kids.  I have not been to Dodger Stadium in some 25 years or more - went to a lot of games there 'back in the day' --but I digress.   My take on Ohtani and  ending up in Dodger Blue is not something I am rooting for -- but given the factual scenario my analysis says it's almost inevitable.  I. think most  folks trying to. forecast  Ohtani's landing spot are pointing to Los Angeles/ Chavez Ravine.  Not too many other teams can put up the offer it will take to sign him.     Ohtani - already. an international sensation - will only soar in Hollywood.  So much. so, his considerable contract take may pale in comparison to all the outside merchandising / advertising revenue he pulls in. The guy is on top of the baseball world and has not reached his potential complete upside yet.  He's going to go down as the best ever to play the  game.  Angels / Arte can't afford to sign him long term -- the Dodgers have the financial resources. -  it's that simple.

1) As did I, I always liked both teams until the Dodgers sold off Piazza and Pedro. By that point I'd already been rooting for the Angels more, but that was the final straw.

2) I was in Dodgers Stadium in 2019, and it has been cleaned up, no more trough toilets, but the concession lines and narrow walkways still are terrible.

3) It seems like you are rooting for that. For Ohtani to end up in Dodger Blue.

4) You assume he will prioritize money over all else. I fully expect the Angels to put up an offer that matches or exceeds the Dodgers offer. The Dodgers want him, no doubt about it, but so does almost every other club and their fans.

5) You act like Hollywood is some far off place with major resources. The Angels play in the same market. Are the Dodgers the #1 team, sure, but the Angels are not in some small market and watching their stars go to the coasts.

6) When was the last time a player left the Angels for the Dodgers or a bigger market? Grienke? Devon White? Nolan Ryan?

Arte is not Gene Autry and has been running a top 8 payroll for nearly two decades. Angels though are under the luxury tax and the Dodgers are over. So a $50M contract for Ohtani costs the Dodgers much, much more. 

[T.G.]

12 hours ago, disarcina said:

My take on Ohtani and  ending up in Dodger Blue is not something I am rooting for -- but given the factual scenario my analysis says it's almost inevitable.  I. think most  folks trying to. forecast  Ohtani's landing spot are pointing to Los Angeles/ Chavez Ravine.  Not too many other teams can put up the offer it will take to sign him.    

Angels / Arte can't afford to sign him long term -- the Dodgers have the financial resources. -  it's that simple.

"Factual scenario?" What is that?

Your premise that Angels/Arte can't afford to sign him long term is false.

Also - if you've been paying attention - @Jeff Fletcher has said repeatedly, that he won't necessarily sign with the highest bidder...

Maybe he does sign with the Dodgers, but I don't see it as a foregone conclusion by any means.

[Revad]

In this poll of 100 MLB players, 57% of the players chose the Dodgers as Ohtani’s next team.

https://theathletic.com/4598257/2023/06/20/mlb-player-poll-rules-expansion-ohtani/

[Hubs]

Just now, Revad said:

In this poll of 100 MLB players, 57% of the players chose the Dodgers as Ohtani’s next team.

https://theathletic.com/4598257/2023/06/20/mlb-player-poll-rules-expansion-ohtani/

Any star player would be the same. They spend a ton.

[Revad]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Any star player would be the same. They spend a ton.

In the poll above, players chose Ohtani going to the Angels 11.4% of the time, so that’s something.

 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Revad

[T.G.]

That poll is meaningless