August 1st, 2023 Trade Deadline: Does Ohtani get traded despite Arte's denials??

[disarcina]

On 6/22/2023 at 10:41 AM, T.G. said:

"Factual scenario?" What is that?

Your premise that Angels/Arte can't afford to sign him long term is false.

Also - if you've been paying attention - @Jeff Fletcher has said repeatedly, that he won't necessarily sign with the highest bidder...

Maybe he does sign with the Dodgers, but I don't see it as a foregone conclusion by any means.

Jeff. Fletcher is closer to the day to day situation and.aspect of all this than any of  us - he claims "Ohtani is different type. of F/A" in that it's more about where he wants to play (and the conditions -i.e. will he be allowed to be in the rotation every fifth/ sixth day AND DH even  in the games where he's the starting pitcher?'  Teams trying to limit the dual role (why would they  given Ohtani's performance/ numbers - but some front office(s) may  take a different. position) would probably be off Ohtani's list fairly quickly.  Having said all this -- over the years and years of F/A in MLB and in all sports -- it's often heard. : "Money isn't the main consideration......"  until it is and usually the highest bidder gets the. prize.  Surprise , Surprise.

I see Ohtani in Dodger Blue -- sole proprietor Arte - even with a few financial partners, simply cannot compete with the Dodgers conglomerate ownership --   ALSO - the Dodgers have made moves the past year plus to seemingly clear some salary space for a significant F/A signing for 2024.   Letting Trea Turner (a great player) get away was one indication.

I'm not NOT rooting for the Dodgers to ink Ohtani long term -- I am just being realistic. Although , if folks here keep suggesting I want Ohtani to sign with the. Dogs, I may start rooting for that to happen. LOL !

[disarcina]

I am now absolutely starting to believe that the Angels won't trade Ohtani at the deadline despite the conventional wisdom they should do so if there's no way they can sign him long term (I think the chances of Ohtani staying in Anaheim are slim and none that he's already made that decision).  Normally a rental player's value goes down with each passing day to the trade deadline.  But Ohtani isn't just any. player.  A team who signs  him for two months is pretty much guaranteed sold out crowds the rest of the way, an increase in concessions and merchandise revenue on a level perhaps not seen with a player before  --  and that also holds true for the  Angels - the team that has. him now.

few players can achieve that -- one I can think of for the. Dodgers was Eric Gagne , their former all star closer (yeah, yeah. start the steroid comments now) who miraculously was able to keep Dodger fans in the stands past the sixth, seventh inning -- a nearly impossible feat.  I remember reading in the LA  Times. during that time, that Gagne's closing games increased concession sales considerably because fans were not hitting the exits in the. 7th.

[bloodbrother]

It's the same scenario since the season began IMO. The Angels clearly won't trade him, and are fully gambling on hoping they can entice him to stay by making the playoffs this year, which is far from guaranteed. I'm not a fan of it because the risk is too high and the odds are they end up watching a talent like him walk for nothing in FA

Really wish they could have come to some kind of resolution one way or another during the offseason, be it an extension or Ohtani's side communicating that they planned on testing the market regardless

[NrM]

0% chance he stays if we miss the playoffs

10% chance he stays if we make a deep run in the playoffs

 

 

 

[Old Angel Fan]

Trading Ohtani would be as catastrophic as Boston trading the Babe.  

[Stradling]

34 minutes ago, NrM said:

0% chance he stays if we miss the playoffs

10% chance he stays if we make a deep run in the playoffs

 

 

 

10%?  Haha. Ok. 

[Angelsjunky]

Using my Quantum Hyperdimentional Macrocomputer, I've calculated the chances of Ohtani staying with the Angels as:

If the Angels collapse and are out by the deadline - chance of trade: 37.4218%

If the Angels fall further behind, but don't trade Ohtani - chances he re-signs: 19.0471%

If the Angels miss the playoffs, but contend deep into September - chance Ohtani re-signs: 33.582%

If the Angels make the playoffs: 43.971%

If the Angels win the World Series: 52.9842%

[Slegnaac]

Make the playoffs and then offer 3 year contract for 270M + 30M signing bonus.

Throw in a NTC.

[Angels 1961]

15 hours ago, NrM said:

0% chance he stays if we miss the playoffs

10% chance he stays if we make a deep run in the playoffs

 

 

 

No, it's 50  50 if he stays playoffs or not.

[Angels 1961]

40 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Using my Quantum Hyperdimentional Macrocomputer, I've calculated the chances of Ohtani staying with the Angels as:

If the Angels collapse and are out by the deadline - chance of trade: 37.4218%

If the Angels fall further behind, but don't trade Ohtani - chances he re-signs: 19.0471%

If the Angels miss the playoffs, but contend deep into September - chance Ohtani re-signs: 33.582%

If the Angels make the playoffs: 43.971%

If the Angels win the World Series: 52.9842%

It's 50 50 either he will stay, or he won't. 

[Angels 1961]

15 hours ago, Old Angel Fan said:

Trading Ohtani would be as catastrophic as Boston trading the Babe.  

I wonder if Ohtani will get a candy bar named after him?