Trading Ohtani even if they are in it?

[TroutField]

What is the expected return aside from some sure fire TORP that is a can’t miss? 
 

3rd base is covered, SS is covered, 2nd seems to be covered with Rengifo, Urshela, and Drury, OF seems pretty crowded. DH at bats ideally need to stay open for Trout and Rendon. Catcher we are stacked. When O’hoppe is back we may need to factor Thaiss into a 1st base role. We seem to have a plethora of hard throwing young guys that can immediately contribute in the bullpen. 
 

so we would basically be needing a CANT miss #1 pitcher, maybe an every day 1st baseman, or maybe a sure fire can’t miss prospect in the outfield, like Corbin Carrol. But even then we seem to have a decent amount of depth, and our own top prospect, we also can sign someone in free agency if the need arises. 
 

[Chuck]

2 hours ago, T.G. said:

I think the Angels should not trade him and sign him before the season ends.

[UndertheHalo]

@Jeff Fletcher I think the Ohtani question has to boil down to what the *Angels* think is going to happen with Ohtani going forward.  We haven’t really had much other than the standard boiler plate bullshit regarding this but the Angels have to have some idea about what’s going on with him right? Even if it’s just Ohtani telling them “OK maybe I want to stay” Great.  He’s worth keeping around then.  Especially if they’re in the wildcard or division race.   

they have to have some sense. How could they not?  That I think determines what you do.  I saw the bow tie saying “no chance” they keep him.  But also, I think Ken Rosenthal is a full of shit media huckster.  
 

I think it’s really tough to know he won’t stick around and get nothing for him.  No matter what’s going on this season.  They owe it to the other guys, most of whom will be here going forward to do what’s best for the club going forward.  Fringe wild card positioning isn’t enough to throw away whatever they can get for Ohtani.  The Angels aren’t going to run away with anything this year.  There’s no reason to pretend they are extremely serious World Series contenders.  It’s just not the case.  It’s absolutely true that anything can happen in the dance.  But you can’t operate with that chance driving a decision like Ohtani.  

Edited June 13, 2023 by UndertheHalo

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

But regarding Ohtani Is anything we do going to be enough for him to stay?  I dont think so, almost nobody does think there is even a remote chance he extends.  Then we get into a bidding War with the Dodgers or Mets that we simply cannot win. 

I think this right here is the flaw in your logic. 
 

I think everyone has been brainwashed by the national media that just assumes Ohtani has no interest in staying.

All of this “Ohtani just wants to win” stuff is really based on one or two sentences he uttered over the last two years. No one really ever gets into his head. (Trust me on this one. I’ve tried.) He said he “wants to win.” Who doesn’t?  

Beyond all that, don’t discount the fact that Ohtani is comfortable here and the organization revolves around him. He gets to do what he wants. Would another team twist its roster around to accommodate him in the same way? Maybe. Maybe not. It would be an unknown to him. 
 

So the bottom line is you simply can’t assume, right now on June 13, that Ohtani is gone or that they can’t win this year.

(Edit: to be clear, I am not trying to get anyone’s hopes up that Ohtani is definitely coming back. I still think it’s more likely that he’s not. I say there’s a 30 percent chance he stays. That’s just my guess.)

Edited June 13, 2023 by Jeff Fletcher

[DCAngelsFan]

1 hour ago, gurn67 said:

I'm on the same boat. I trade him no matter what. This team is not going to win the World Series. They've had a good week, and Ohtani has been on fire. Go back and check the posts from 9 days ago. Everyone would have said to trade him. He's probably the most valuable deadline trade chip in the history of baseball of guys who were about to enter free agency. 

The regular season is who has the best, most-balanced team.

Playoffs are about who's hottest.

I don't think Arte can trade Ohtani - even if he told the club "No way I'm re-signing here", Arte probably wouldn't want to be known as the guy who traded away Babe Ruth nee' Ohtani for a bunch of guys whose name no one remembers.

I think he may elect to go all in, make some eye-watering trade for someone like Stroman and just hope for the best.   

If he doesn't, and we miss the playoffs by 1 game, and Ohtani walks, he'll be the biggest goat (not GOAT) baseball has seen in years.

 

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think this right here is the flaw in your logic. 
 

I think everyone has been brainwashed by the national media that just assumes Ohtani has no interest in staying.

All of this “Ohtani just wants to win” stuff is really based on one or two sentences he uttered over the last two years. No one really ever gets into his head. (Trust me on this one. I’ve tried.) He said he “wants to win.” Who doesn’t?  

Beyond all that, don’t discount the fact that Ohtani is comfortable here and the organization revolves around him. He gets to do what he wants. Would another team twist its roster around to accommodate him in the same way? Maybe. Maybe not. It would be an unknown to him. 
 

So the bottom line is you simply can’t assume, right now on June 13, that Ohtani is gone or that they can’t win this year.

(Edit: to be clear, I am not trying to get anyone’s hopes up that Ohtani is definitely coming back. I still think it’s more likely that he’s not. I say there’s a 30 percent chance he stays. That’s just my guess.)

In my defense i would say no im not, seeing their comments supports my position but didnt influence or create it.  To me the fact that he hasnt extended, for whatever reason, is proof enough.
His own words have made clear what he wants, and i dont think well get lucky twice a la Trout. 
Im not assuming anything, i could be wrong, maybe he stays when all is said and done, and maybe this team does do batter than it looks right now, i certainly cant see the future, but thats a hell of a gamble when you have a chip of that value. 
If it all works out, you look like a genius, if it doesnt work out, you look like an absolute imbecile.

I agree though on youre estimate of percentage, 25 maybe 30%... so thats bascially 3 or 4 to one against.. do you go all in on a bad situation with those odds?  Logic would suggest thats a bad play to make. 

[floplag]

47 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

The regular season is who has the best, most-balanced team.

Playoffs are about who's hottest.

I don't think Arte can trade Ohtani - even if he told the club "No way I'm re-signing here", Arte probably wouldn't want to be known as the guy who traded away Babe Ruth nee' Ohtani for a bunch of guys whose name no one remembers.

I think he may elect to go all in, make some eye-watering trade for someone like Stroman and just hope for the best.   

If he doesn't, and we miss the playoffs by 1 game, and Ohtani walks, he'll be the biggest goat (not GOAT) baseball has seen in years.

 

No hed be known as the guy that gave him away for nothing... i wonder which is worse? 

[HanfordGuy]

NOTRADE!!! Just re-sign Shohei already!!!

[WicketMaiden]

Trading Ohtani whilst in a winning position is the notion of a fool.

[Jeff Fletcher]

9 minutes ago, floplag said:

do you go all in on a bad situation with those odds?  Logic would suggest thats a bad play to make. 

Except there is nothing that is “all in” about what you’re suggesting.

If you keep him, you get:

-2 months worth of his production, and all that does to help you get to the playoffs.

-some non-zero chance of re-signing him or a first round draft pick

If you trade him, you get:

-Two good prospects, but no one’s Elly De La Cruz. Maybe some org’s 3 and 10 prospects, plus a third filler  

-Almost no chance of re-signing him.

-Less chance to make the playoffs this year. 
 

That is hardly “all in”

[Blarg]

Trading Ohtani after his MVP season would have garnered the highest value. A season and a half later, combined with his latest pitching regression, the return is diminished to the point a draft pick might be a greater upside. But it is simply foolish to talk trade when the Angels are sitting one game out of the Wildcard and the team is winning even while Trout is in his worst career slump. 

[Torridd]

18 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I don’t usually start threads but I keep seeing this idea and want to ask about it. 
 

I certainly understand the thinking of trading Ohtani if the Angels are out of it, but it seems like there are some fans who want to trade him even if the Angels are in it? (And I don’t mean “fringy in it” like 5 games out, but legit like right now.)

If you’re not going to go for it when you have a chance, then what’s the point?

(I also can’t imagine what it would do to the clubhouse to trade Ohtani when they are in the race. Imagine what happened to the Brewers when they traded Hader and multiply it by 10.)

Yeah, Jeff, trading Ohtani when they aren't in it makes no sense unless they know for a fact he's leaving.

[Swordsman78]

The flawed logic supporting most of the arguments here is that most everyone is looking at this through the GM prism and not from the Owner point of view.

From a GM standpoint - it would make sense to get what you can if you are certain Ohtani walks.

From an Owner standpoint - Those guys have huge ego's and everything is a "dick measuring" contest.   Arte cares less about getting nothing if Ohtani walks, but he probably cares alot about his reputation in the "club of billionaires" if he gets conned into trading what could arguably be the most prolific ballplayer from now through the next decade.

Worst case for Arte is that he over bids on Ohtani, but loses, and goes ahead and sells the team for $3 Billion.

[Torridd]

40 minutes ago, floplag said:

In my defense i would say no im not, seeing their comments supports my position but didnt influence or create it.  To me the fact that he hasnt extended, for whatever reason, is proof enough.
His own words have made clear what he wants, and i dont think well get lucky twice a la Trout. 
Im not assuming anything, i could be wrong, maybe he stays when all is said and done, and maybe this team does do batter than it looks right now, i certainly cant see the future, but thats a hell of a gamble when you have a chip of that value. 
If it all works out, you look like a genius, if it doesnt work out, you look like an absolute imbecile.

I agree though on youre estimate of percentage, 25 maybe 30%... so thats bascially 3 or 4 to one against.. do you go all in on a bad situation with those odds?  Logic would suggest thats a bad play to make. 

Logic suggests? We're talking about armaggeddon you green-blooded... (I couldn't resist!)

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, Torridd said:

Logic suggests? We're talking about armaggeddon you green-blooded... (I couldn't resist!)

Well played sir, well played... 

[DCAngelsFan]

34 minutes ago, floplag said:

No hed be known as the guy that gave him away for nothing... i wonder which is worse? 

It's not "giving him away" - if he chooses to leave, then he leaves.  

Who "gave" Vlad away to us?   Who gave away Max Scherzer?  

No idea.  

Who sold Babe Ruth?  Who traded Pedro Martinez for Delino Deshields?

Don't even need to look them up.

The only scenario in which I trade him is if we're well out of it, *and* he tells management he won't sign an extension with this team, we absolutely know we can't afford him (and he plans to go to the highest bidder) or some team offers some astronomical haul of players.  

Speaking of which, what do you think you'll get for a  guy getting paid $30m a year, and is a FA soon? 

A team can't give up any "All-star" starters to get him - what would be the point if they want to make a playoff run, losing an equal current talent?

So, what, you get a handful of prospects that might be ready to play in 3 or 4 years, and maybe you'll get one able to take Trout's place in the OF as he winds down his career with losing season after losing season.

If we were going to trade him, it should've been this time last year. 

I dunno, I don't want him to leave for nothing, either - but trading him would be a gut punch to every Angel fan - of whom there would be a lot fewer next season.  

If he wants to leave, let *him* make that choice.  

[floplag]

29 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Except there is nothing that is “all in” about what you’re suggesting.

If you keep him, you get:

-2 months worth of his production, and all that does to help you get to the playoffs.

-some non-zero chance of re-signing him or a first round draft pick

If you trade him, you get:

-Two good prospects, but no one’s Elly De La Cruz. Maybe some org’s 3 and 10 prospects, plus a third filler  

-Almost no chance of re-signing him.

-Less chance to make the playoffs this year. 
 

That is hardly “all in”

Then why do it at all if its not?
The only reason to take the risk it to make the effort to make a deep playoff run, add at the deadline and try to actually win.
Do you see Arte doing that?  i dont.
Id love to see us go get Stroman since the Cubs dont seem to want to extend him but Arte isnt adding payroll and we dont really have the parts to spare to make a trade like that so... thats not realistic.
Dont get me wrong i dont want to trade him, i just think its in the best interest of the club to do so in the current paradigm. 

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

It's not "giving him away" - if he chooses to leave, then he leaves.  

Who "gave" Vlad away to us?   Who gave away Max Scherzer?  

No idea.  

Who sold Babe Ruth?  Who traded Pedro Martinez for Delino Deshields?

Don't even need to look them up.

The only scenario in which I trade him is if we're well out of it, *and* he tells management he won't sign an extension with this team, we absolutely know we can't afford him (and he plans to go to the highest bidder) or some team offers some astronomical haul of players.  

Speaking of which, what do you think you'll get for a  guy getting paid $30m a year, and is a FA soon? 

A team can't give up any "All-star" starters to get him - what would be the point if they want to make a playoff run, losing an equal current talent?

So, what, you get a handful of prospects that might be ready to play in 3 or 4 years, and maybe you'll get one able to take Trout's place in the OF as he winds down his career with losing season after losing season.

If we were going to trade him, it should've been this time last year. 

I dunno, I don't want him to leave for nothing, either - but trading him would be a gut punch to every Angel fan - of whom there would be a lot fewer next season.  

If he wants to leave, let *him* make that choice.  

And how many of those fans are only here for him, versus being actual angel fans?   Last i checked were still the angels, not the Ohtanis.

Youre right, it should have already been done, we already bungled that.. all we have now its whats left. 

I would bet right now the Dodgers or Mets would still pay premium, maybe even the Padres...  No, youre not getting all star, but you could easily get a couple of top kids controllable for years.  Fill gaps we otherwise cant.  Isnt that worth something?

IDK this is debated out, people are set in their takes and thats fine, so am i, i still think its the smartest move we have left.

Ill take my leave and let you get back to it.  

[Erstad Grit]

I'd trade him to the Dodgers for Miller and JD Martinez.

 

(if he didn't accept a last attempt at an extension)

 

We'd have somewhat reasonable replacement for the hopeful playoff run and Miller for years to come. 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by Erstad Grit

[WicketMaiden]

Something to consider for those in favour of trading Ohtani: the prospects who came back would be under enormous additional pressure to succeed because they were the return for the biggest thing in baseball. Can you imagine the additional pressure and ridiculous levels of over-expectation those kids will be developing under? Can you imagine the additional scrutiny? The media hype and then the savaging when they have their ups and downs? No prospects are a sure thing, but the Ohtani-return prospects will be less of a sure thing than most.

[BTH]

15 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I certainly understand the thinking of trading Ohtani if the Angels are out of it, but it seems like there are some fans who want to trade him even if the Angels are in it? (And I don’t mean “fringy in it” like 5 games out, but legit like right now.)

I don’t know what fans are thinking that, but I don’t think they represent the majority opinion. Maybe they’re just Ohtani fans who want to see him play elsewhere?

If they are legit in the race, 100% you keep Ohtani. Unless like half the team goes on the IL right before the deadline or something catastrophic like that.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Off topic but kind of related. But it's hard to not wonder what the dynamic would be if Adell and Marsh had panned out. 

Team seems fun right now. For the fans and the players. Imagine if the past 2 years were like this, not just the Ohtani and sometimes Trout show.

[Jeff Fletcher]

4 hours ago, floplag said:

The only reason to take the risk it to make the effort to make a deep playoff run, add at the deadline and try to actually win.

The last time they were sort of in it they got Justin Upton, so I do think if they are in it they will try to add pieces and go for it. 

Also, all their moves this winter suggested going for it now. 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Jeff Fletcher

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, floplag said:

Then why do it at all if its not?
The only reason to take the risk it to make the effort to make a deep playoff run, add at the deadline and try to actually win.
Do you see Arte doing that?  i dont.
Id love to see us go get Stroman since the Cubs dont seem to want to extend him but Arte isnt adding payroll and we dont really have the parts to spare to make a trade like that so... thats not realistic.
Dont get me wrong i dont want to trade him, i just think its in the best interest of the club to do so in the current paradigm. 

If the Angels are this close or in a playoff position I fully expect them to go all in and add payroll at the deadline. 

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, floplag said:

And how many of those fans are only here for him, versus being actual angel fans?   Last i checked were still the angels, not the Ohtanis.

Youre right, it should have already been done, we already bungled that.. all we have now its whats left. 

I would bet right now the Dodgers or Mets would still pay premium, maybe even the Padres...  No, youre not getting all star, but you could easily get a couple of top kids controllable for years.  Fill gaps we otherwise cant.  Isnt that worth something?

IDK this is debated out, people are set in their takes and thats fine, so am i, i still think its the smartest move we have left.

Ill take my leave and let you get back to it.  

You might get 2 top 100 prospects maybe. But you aren’t getting talented young major league talent back for Ohtani. The Dodgers aren’t giving you Bobby Miller, but maybe you get Pages and another prospect or two. Mets aren’t giving you Beaty or Alvarez.