The Official Los Angeles Angels Minor League Stats, Reports & Scouting Thread

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

wanna bet there's claw back on part of that?  

Probably, but given the history with the Angels and their minor leaguers I'd be ok with it if he got over.

[Docwaukee]

43 minutes ago, Revad said:

Do you think Joyce. Is ready?

no.  he needs a slider he can throw for a strike.    

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Probably, but given the history with the Angels and their minor leaguers I'd be ok with it if he got over.

agreed.  a bit odd he hung them up so quick too.  

[Revad]

2 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

no.  he needs a slider he can throw for a strike.    

Doc- where’s the effing pitching?

[mmc]

On 2/3/2023 at 5:55 PM, Trendon said:

It’d be pretty insane if he was actually attempting a comeback for 5+ seasons and he just dealt with injury, after injury.

Would be interesting to hear his story.

 

[BTH]

2 hours ago, mmc said:

 

You have to admire his perseverance.

It seemed so improbable to me that he was dealing with injuries for 5+ years that I figured he was retired but there was some glitch on the MiLB website.

There was never any info about him being injured. That the Angels stuck with him that long likely indicates he had good stuff when he was healthy.

[Chuck]

Good news! 

https://t.co/zWKEFIddi6

[Blarg]

On 2/4/2023 at 10:44 PM, Docwaukee said:

no.  he needs a slider he can throw for that looks like a strike.    

Fify

[halodground]

57 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Good news! 

https://t.co/zWKEFIddi6

Market/Blackout oddity. In Arizona (roughly 450 miles to the Big A) , I could watch the Angels on MLB.TV. In Hawai’i (roughly 2550 miles to the Big A), Angels are blacked out on MLB.TV. But I do get Bally’s here. Evidently all of the California teams claim Hawaii as part of their market.

[greginpsca]

3 hours ago, halodground said:

Market/Blackout oddity. In Arizona (roughly 450 miles to the Big A) , I could watch the Angels on MLB.TV. In Hawai’i (roughly 2550 miles to the Big A), Angels are blacked out on MLB.TV. But I do get Bally’s here. Evidently all of the California teams claim Hawaii as part of their market.

Probably don't get Seattle either.

[Revad]

Interesting point by Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs:

“The new, looser transfer portal rules and incentives created by NIL opportunities have caused a seismic shift in the way talent flows to and throughout collegiate athletics, and baseball is no exception. Five of my top 25 prospects here have passed through the portal. Even if it isn’t consumed with the same fervor as football or basketball are in our culture, college baseball players have newfound earning potential and agency. It’s hard to predict the long-term effects of these changes on scouting, but it’s safe to say there will be some. For now, the biggest impact is that LSU has built a super team of sorts, and are now in their second year of coaxing early-round prospects to Baton Rouge for their amateur swan song.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/updating-the-2023-draft-prospect-rankings/

 

[Revad]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

Eric Logenhagen and Tess Taruskin authors

O’Hoppe: #51

Neto: #61

Quero: #80

They’re all three FV 50.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Revad

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Revad said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

Eric Logenhagen and Tess Taruskin authors

O’Hoppe: #51

Neto: #61

Quero: #80

They’re all three FV 50.

One mistake in there, says Neto ETA is 2027.    It’s more like 2024.

[Revad]

21 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

One mistake in there, says Neto ETA is 2027.    It’s more like 2024.

They mention that in the write up…

Drafted: 1st Round, 2022 from Campbell (LAA)

Age	22.1	Height	6′ 0″	Weight	190	Bat / Thr	R / R	FV	50

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit	Raw Power	Game Power	Run	Fielding	Throw
45/60	40/45	40/50	55/55	40/50	40

Neto finds a way to make lots of contact despite his cacophonous swing, which is enough to project him as an everyday second baseman.

Neto had an incredible statistical 2021, a performance he reinforced by hitting on Cape Cod and then again by hitting (checks notes) .407/.514/.769 (!) as a junior at Campbell in 2022. He was the fifth ranked prospect on our 2022 Draft Board but was picked 13th, enough to merit some reconsideration as to whether Neto belongs in the 50 FV already. We’ve concluded he does. He’s a compact-framed, contact-oriented middle infielder from a smaller conference, but Neto gets the most out of his body by taking very athletic, high-octane swings. He has a cartoonish leg kick and his hands load similarly to Javier Báez’s, and while Neto doesn’t have quite the same all-world whip as Báez, he is a plus rotational athlete who hits some epic pull-side homers. The huge swing doesn’t detract from Neto’s feel for contact, which he made plenty of during an aggressive post-draft assignment to Double-A. Neto dials down his footwork with two strikes and becomes even tougher to put away. A plus athlete, Neto does some acrobatic things at shortstop and when he puts his whole body into a throw, he appears to have plenty of arm for the left side. He goes out of his way to try to throw while he’s on the run, and he rarely makes anything look easy the way big league shortstops tend to, so we have him projected at second base. There’s enough hit/power combination for Neto to be a first-division regular there. We’ve manually adjusted Neto’s ETA to reflect the Angels’ tendency to move their prospects more quickly than their stock 40-man timeline.

[Angelsjunky]

I love the probability charts for each player:

I think the "bust %" on Neto is a bit high, but otherwise those offer a reasonable range of outcomes.

[Docwaukee]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I love the probability charts for each player:

I think the "bust %" on Neto is a bit high, but otherwise those offer a reasonable range of outcomes.

what metrics are these based on?  Because it looks like Neto and Quero are exactly the same

[BTH]

15 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

what metrics are these based on?  Because it looks like Neto and Quero are exactly the same

“Before his departure for ESPN, Kiley McDaniel used the great work of our former colleague Craig Edwards to find the base rates for each FV tier of prospect (separately for hitters and pitchers), and the likelihood of each FV outcome. For example, based on Craig’s research, the average 60 FV hitter on a list becomes a perennial 5-plus WAR player over his six controlled years 26% of the time, and has a 27% chance of accumulating, at most, a couple of WAR during his six controlled years. We started with those base rates for every player on this year’s list and then manually tweaked them depending on our more specific opinions about the player.“

tldr: some data, but the data is formulated after a subjective opinion on a player, and can then be manipulated by another subjective opinion

Edited February 24, 2023 by Trendon

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

what metrics are these based on?  Because it looks like Neto and Quero are exactly the same

 

54 minutes ago, Trendon said:

“Before his departure for ESPN, Kiley McDaniel used the great work of our former colleague Craig Edwards to find the base rates for each FV tier of prospect (separately for hitters and pitchers), and the likelihood of each FV outcome. For example, based on Craig’s research, the average 60 FV hitter on a list becomes a perennial 5-plus WAR player over his six controlled years 26% of the time, and has a 27% chance of accumulating, at most, a couple of WAR during his six controlled years. We started with those base rates for every player on this year’s list and then manually tweaked them depending on our more specific opinions about the player.“

tldr: some data, but the data is formulated after a subjective opinion on a player, and can then be manipulated by another subjective opinion

Translation: nerd stuff.

[Inside Pitch]

ZIPS top 100 prospects list..

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2023-top-100-prospects/

Four Halo farmhands.

50	Logan O’Hoppe	C	Los Angeles Angels	51
63	Ky Bush	P	Los Angeles Angels	Unranked
68	Kyren Paris	SS	Los Angeles Angels	Unranked
77	Edgar Quero	C	Los Angeles Angels	80

1 in the top 50
4 in the top 100
9 in the top 200 (7th most).

[BTH]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

ZIPS top 100 prospects list..

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2023-top-100-prospects/

Four Halo farmhands.

50	Logan O’Hoppe	C	Los Angeles Angels	51
63	Ky Bush	P	Los Angeles Angels	Unranked
68	Kyren Paris	SS	Los Angeles Angels	Unranked
77	Edgar Quero	C	Los Angeles Angels	80

 

I wonder who the nine in the top 200 are.

Jackson appears to be one.

I’d assume Neto and Silseth are too more.

Maybe Blakely and Guzman are the other too.

[Inside Pitch]

36 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I wonder who the nine in the top 200 are.

Jackson appears to be one.

I’d assume Neto and Silseth are too more.

Maybe Blakely and Guzman are the other too.

ZIPS being a data driven projection system, guys drafted the year before aren't typically ranked due to small sample IP/ABs.   So Neto might not be ranked (also why you don't see Dru Jones ranked).

But, it's a good sign to see that based on an algorithm (essentially a MLE), to see that many Angels prospects "performed" well enough to be ranked.

[Vlad27Trout27]

I think it's go to see that both Bush and Paris are in the top 100. They both might be underrated, espcially Bush who I believe as a safe bet to reach the Majors.

[Inside Pitch]

14 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I think it's go to see that both Bush and Paris are in the top 100. They both might be underrated, espcially Bush who I believe as a safe bet to reach the Majors.

Like all ranking this is kind of meaningless but what I do like about projection type rankings is that they comp and project players based on performances and not subjective analysis like tools and the sort. These sorts of rankings will more quickly expose a Brandon Wood and find a David Fletcher simply because it removes any subjective bias and relies strictly on actual production. Given that these systems attempt to combine historical comps with predictive data and includes age/league information they make for more interesting rankings IMHO than the usual copy pasted opinions based on industry hype.

Tony Blengino and John Benson used to work together on a yearly prospect annual called Future Stars, the ranks were entirely driven by this sort of analysis and their rankings and future grades always used to blow away Baseball America and all the other prospect sites. They were the only ones to point to Albert Pujols as a top 5 prospect after his lone minor league season going so far as to say he could possibly make his debut the following season.  Benson couldn't compete with the likes of Baseball Prospectus and to a lesser degree Ron Shandler so the annuals stopped some time in the mid 2000s, but they were always a great read. 

[Stradling]

@Inside Pitch so ZIPS takes age and minor league level into consideration?  

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

@Inside Pitch so ZIPS takes age and minor league level into consideration?  

He hasn't released the full formula for obvious reasons but all MLE type projections start by taking every player that every played and putting them into a pool.  From there it looks for the best comps, historical players of the same age at the same level ect ect and tries to find similar comps.  It's far from accurate but still a far more educated guess than looking at a guy and saying man, he looks like a player, I bet he will be good.