Jose Suarez: Starter or Reliever?

[totdprods]

As a SP: 28 IP, 28 hits allowed, 4 HR allowed, 11 BB, 23 K, 5.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7.4 K/9
As a RP: 27.1 IP, 21 hits allowed, 3 HR allowed, 9 BB, 26 K, 1.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.6 K/9

This is a small sample size that really doesn't indicate much - he's been mostly effective in his starts, and it's easier to post good numbers in mop-up relief if you're coming in when the opponent already has a lead. 
And there certainly is no reason to take him out of the rotation this season. 

But I think it's fair to wonder where Suarez would be more of more value in 2022; as one of many young rotation options or as a multi-inning lefty relief weapon?

The Angels will have a glaring need for adding at least one, maybe two SPs, to the rotation this winter, and after that, the rotation gets crowded with all these young arms. 
I think Detmers has the stuff and is ready despite the results, and it's best to let him take his lumps in the majors until it becomes glaringly obvious he needs a AAA reboot, so I see him in '22 rotation.
Barria is a similar case to Suarez from the other side of the mound, but he has never really looked comfortable in relief unlike Suarez. He's out of options so he's either in the rotation or traded this winter.
I still think Rodriguez' injury history and mechanics make relief his likely future, but he has made me look completely wrong in his two starts this year - efficient, effective, crisp - there's no reason to stop that experiment with his upside. 

That makes Ohtani, Sandoval, Rodriguez/Barria (assuming either Barria winds up traded or Rodriguez in AAA), Detmers, and two winter acquisitions - that's six right there. 

Given how thin the upper-level bullpen depth is, does it make more sense to pencil Suarez into the '22 bullpen, barring a huge August/September from him as a starter?
That also doesn't mean it would be permanent. They stretched him out mid-season and worked him back into the rotation as Bundy cratered, so it's not like they couldn't do the same as 2022 continued if there was a need.

[Jason]

Fact is the Halos need some arms in the pen and if he provides a reliable and effective arm for them in there then I’m ok with it. Some pitchers are just better out of the pen 

[Stradling]

To me it’s too early to say he isn’t a starter.  That being said if he was going to be as good in the pen as he was this year going forward, then that’s where I’d want him to be. 

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Hells Rainbow said:

To me it’s too early to say he isn’t a starter.  That being said if he was going to be as good in the pen as he was this year going forward, then that’s where I’d want him to be. 

I definitely agree - I actually think he's meant to be a starter, but could take a little more time to get everything to translate. Seeing that there's a clear need in the bullpen and no shortage of options for the rotation, it makes me wonder if they'd be better off utilizing him in the bullpen again next year initially.

[Angelsjunky]

I want to disagree with you, but at this point I don't. As with Strad, I think it is too soon to say, and that Suarez should be kept in the rotation for the rest of the year as part of the ongoing "Audition 2022" going on. But it may be that he is most useful to the team as a reliever next year.

Also, don't forget about Canning - we shouldn't give up on him. With him being shut down for the year, it may be that the Angels want to start him in AAA next year, but presumably he'll be back up at some point.

Furthermore, guys like Davis Daniel and Sam Bachman might be factors at some point next year, probably in the second half. We may even see them get cups this year.

The rest of the minor leaguers--Criswell, Diaz, Naughton, Tyler, Junk, etc--I see as depth, in either the rotation or bullpen, rather than viable options for a spot on the team on opening day.

One point of disagreement is regarding Barria. Unless the Angels plan on going after two good starters, I'd rather see them give him a shot in the rotation than yet another lottery pick or over-priced veteran. He has more value as a cheap #4-5 starter for the Angels than he does as a trade chip, and there are worse guys to have as your #6 starter.

So I see the Opening Rotation like so:

New Starter, Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers, Rodriguez, Barria

In AAA/AA as likely call-ups: Canning, Daniel, Bachman

In AAA/AA as depth: Diaz, Naughton, Criswell, Junk, Tyler, Pina, Ortega, etc

The bullpen is less clear and could include Suarez, as well as guys like Ortega, Daniel, Bachman, and others who have started in the minors. Plus, two or three new acquisitions.

 

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I want to disagree with you, but at this point I don't. As with Strad, I think it is too soon to say, and that Suarez should be kept in the rotation for the rest of the year as part of the ongoing "Audition 2022" going on. But it may be that he is most useful to the team as a reliever next year.

Also, don't forget about Canning - we shouldn't give up on him. With him being shut down for the year, it may be that the Angels want to start him in AAA next year, but presumably he'll be back up at some point.

Furthermore, guys like Davis Daniel and Sam Bachman might be factors at some point next year, probably in the second half. We may even see them get cups this year.

The rest of the minor leaguers--Criswell, Diaz, Naughton, Tyler, Junk, etc--I see as depth, in either the rotation or bullpen, rather than viable options for a spot on the team on opening day.

One point of disagreement is regarding Barria. Unless the Angels plan on going after two good starters, I'd rather see them give him a shot in the rotation than yet another lottery pick or over-priced veteran. He has more value as a cheap #4-5 starter for the Angels than he does as a trade chip, and there are worse guys to have as your #6 starter.

So I see the Opening Rotation like so:

New Starter, Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers, Rodriguez, Barria

In AAA/AA as likely call-ups: Canning, Daniel, Bachman

In AAA/AA as depth: Diaz, Naughton, Criswell, Junk, Tyler, Pina, Ortega, etc

The bullpen is less clear and could include Suarez, as well as guys like Ortega, Daniel, Bachman, and others who have started in the minors. Plus, two or three new acquisitions.

 

Don't get me wrong, I love Barria. I wish the Angels would have kept him in the rotation all this time. He's a gamer and while I'm not sure he'll ever dominate, I think he's a good bet to give you 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 HR type starts 90% of the time. 

Just not sure he'll have a spot with all the arms in the mix and him being out of options. I hope I'm wrong. 

And I totally agree too, Suarez should absolutely start the remainder of the year - no reason to move him back to the bullpen. 
But if he continues to 'struggle' this year in the rotation, say 4-5 IP outings and allowing 2-3 runs with soft K numbers - it might be best to move him back to where he was succeeding for the start of '22 and work him back in to the rotation as needed.

Canning is a total wild card. He's making good on my prediction that he's our next Garrett Richards, a guy who we should have traded for a more established, durable pitcher while he had significant trade value. If Detmers rights the ship and guys like Bachman and Rodriguez prove they have the durability to start over the rest of 2021, he might get buried in the depth chart rather quickly.

[failos]

He belongs in the rotation. Period.

[Second Base]

You're always going to need more pitching but now that it appears the Angels have enough in terms of quantity major league starters, now you need quality. 

Sure, the Angels probably have like 40-45 million they can spend this winter before reaching previous payroll levels, but there also needs to be some thought in terms of reserving some of those dollars for an Ohtani extension. 

Ohtani and Sandoval are locked for the rotation. Barria has made his case as well. There's a reason Rod and Detmers aren't in AA/AAA right now, so I think they're in as well. That's five starters.

And here's where it gets interesting.

Jose Suarez vs. Griffin Canning vs. Free Agent

You can make a strong case for any of these options. Suarez had pitched much better this year and has a strong minor league track record, but he's been more ok than anything as a starter and his newfound pace lulls his fielders to sleep. Canning is a former college star and second round pick with untapped potential. But he hasn't broken out the way you would've hoped by now and he generally misses time each year with some sort of injury. 

The free agent in this circumstance likely wouldn't be a back end starter. From a value standpoint, let's just call him Alex Cobb, and there just isn't a ton of difference between Cobb, Suarez and Canning in 2022, not likely. 

So if they do chase a free agent, I feel like it's going to be a front end arm. And in this class, there's a lot of those available.

Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Max Scherzer, Carlos Rodon, Charlie Morton, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jon Gray, Kevin Gausman, and Anthony DeSclafani are all free agents, and there will probably be a couple trade targets on the market as well. 

The downside to most of these guys is that most will cost at least 25 million a year, and if the Angels want to re-up Iglesias or get a new SS, it doesn't leave a lot of room to spend on the bullpen, which is the real need. 

Just my hunch, nothing else, but I think they'll get a free agent starter and use both Canning and Suarez in the bullpen. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Second Base

[Inside Pitch]

44 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I want to disagree with you, but at this point I don't. As with Strad, I think it is too soon to say, and that Suarez should be kept in the rotation for the rest of the year as part of the ongoing "Audition 2022" going on. But it may be that he is most useful to the team as a reliever next year.

Also, don't forget about Canning - we shouldn't give up on him. With him being shut down for the year, it may be that the Angels want to start him in AAA next year, but presumably he'll be back up at some point.

Furthermore, guys like Davis Daniel and Sam Bachman might be factors at some point next year, probably in the second half. We may even see them get cups this year.

The rest of the minor leaguers--Criswell, Diaz, Naughton, Tyler, Junk, etc--I see as depth, in either the rotation or bullpen, rather than viable options for a spot on the team on opening day.

One point of disagreement is regarding Barria. Unless the Angels plan on going after two good starters, I'd rather see them give him a shot in the rotation than yet another lottery pick or over-priced veteran. He has more value as a cheap #4-5 starter for the Angels than he does as a trade chip, and there are worse guys to have as your #6 starter.

So I see the Opening Rotation like so:

New Starter, Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers, Rodriguez, Barria

In AAA/AA as likely call-ups: Canning, Daniel, Bachman

In AAA/AA as depth: Diaz, Naughton, Criswell, Junk, Tyler, Pina, Ortega, etc

The bullpen is less clear and could include Suarez, as well as guys like Ortega, Daniel, Bachman, and others who have started in the minors. Plus, two or three new acquisitions.

 

Suarez might be their trade piece should they try to acquire someone via that route. 

Barria is (right or wrong), viewed as a finesse rightly and those types aren't really much in demand.  Suarez's change is a legit plus pitch and his FB plays from the left side.  He's got a chance to create value regardless of how he pitches because he's a lefty, can hit 94/95 and can manufacture outs with his change.  

It's hard to gauge his SP/RP splits in part because he's had the Angels bullpen following him into games.  Its true of every Angels starter.

[Second Base]

And for the record, right now I think it's either Stroman or Gausman. They're both familiar with Perry Minasian, both have had recent success and are in the younger end of this free agent pitching class. 

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, Second Base said:

You're always going to need more pitching but now that it appears the Angels have enough in terms of quantity make league starters, now you seem quality. 

Sure, the Angels probably have like 40-45 million they can spend this winter before reaching previous payroll levels, but there also needs to be some thought in terms of reserving some of those dollars for an Ohtani extension. 

Ohtani and Sandoval are locked for the rotation. Barria has made his case as well. There's a reason Rod and Detmers aren't in AA/AAA right now, so I think they're in as well. That's five starters.

And here's where it gets interesting.

Jose Suarez vs. Griffin Canning vs. Free Agent

You can make a strong case for any of these options. Suarez had pitched much better this year and has a strong minor league track record, but he's been more ok than anything as a starter and his newfound pace lulls his fielders to sleep. Canning is a former college star and second round pick with untapped potential. But he hasn't broken out the way you would've hoped by now and he generally misses time each year with some sort of injury. 

The free agent in this circumstance likely wouldn't be a back end starter. From a value standpoint, let's just call him Alex Cobb, and there just isn't a ton of difference between Cobb, Suarez and Canning in 2022, not likely. 

So if they do chase a free agent, I feel like it's going to be a front end arm. And in this class, there's a lot of those available.

Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Max Scherzer, Carlos Rodon, Charlie Morton, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jon Gray, Kevin Gausman, and Anthony DeSclafani are all free agents, and there will probably be a couple trade targets on the market as well. 

The downside to most of these guys is that most will cost at least 25 million a year, and if the Angels want to re-up Iglesias or get a new SS, it doesn't leave a lot of room to spend on the bullpen, which is the real need. 

Just my hunch, nothing else, but I think they'll get a free agent starter and use both Canning and Suarez in the bullpen. 

In a perfect world they bring in a quality front half of the rotation arm and keep their depth in the pen and as a failsafe in case of injury, but they may not have the salary.   Arte can't always see the long game.

[totdprods]

I guess another way of saying it is that I really like Suarez as a starter, but I'm not sure I like him enough to go into 2022 with him locked in to a spot, unless there's some significant improvement in the next few weeks. 

And since he'll be out of options in '22, starting the year in relief and basically replicating his role this year. He's the guy you bring in when your SP is knocked out early that can keep you in the game. And if a need emerges in the rotation, you have the option of stretching him back out over a couple of starts to take that spot, unless someone in the minors gets a crack first. Which is also likely given our newfound depth.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

And for the record, right now I think it's either Stroman or Gausman. They're both familiar with Perry Minasian, both have had recent success and are in the younger end of this free agent pitching class. 

I'm pretty down with either of those guys. 

I would entertain re-signing Cobb too, but not as the primary addition. If he likes it here enough to sign a relatively affordable deal, 1-2 years at $10m AAV or less, it's worth considering, especially if for some reason the Angels trade one of these young arms to fill another need, be it relief, a bat, or a SP instead of signing one of the ones you mentioned above.

[Jason]

18 minutes ago, failos said:

He belongs in the rotation. Period.

With pitchers I don’t ever think it’s that simple. They should be used wherever they are strongest. Obviously a good, dominate starter is preferable but if Suarez is dominant out of the pen then I think that should be considered 

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Jason said:

With pitchers I don’t ever think it’s that simple. They should be used wherever they are strongest. Obviously a good, dominate starter is preferable but if Suarez is dominant out of the pen then I think that should be considered 

Dominance for 45 innings .vs competence for 160+ tends to favor the 160 innings.    

[Jason]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Dominance for 45 innings .vs competence for 160+ tends to favor the 160 innings.    

Sure but I guess it will come down to what other rotation arms they will going into 2022. For this season, Suarez should remain in the rotation. 

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

Sure but I guess it will come down to what other rotation arms they will going into 2022. For this season, Suarez should remain in the rotation. 

It may ultimately come down to what they have better success acquiring. 

[Jason]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

It may ultimately come down to what they have better success acquiring. 

I’m in the camp that believes they should draft and develop their starting rotation arms if they want to be successful. I really hope Suarez, Sandoval and Detmers all work out and are in the rotation for the next few years. My only point was that if any are dominant out of the pen then that shouldn’t be overlooked 

[Angel Oracle]

24 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

In a perfect world they bring in a quality front half of the rotation arm and keep their depth in the pen and as a failsafe in case of injury, but they may not have the salary.   Arte can't always see the long game.

This times eleventy.

How would it hurt Arte to go over the tax threshold by just a little for ONE season?   No penalty incurred aside from the tax.

It’s almost like he’s totally anti-tax.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

I’m in the camp that believes they should draft and develop their starting rotation arms if they want to be successful. I really hope Suarez, Sandoval and Detmers all work out and are in the rotation for the next few years. My only point was that if any are dominant out of the pen then that shouldn’t be overlooked 

I'm a Suarez believer.  All I'm saying is if there is a pressing need in then pen and they aren't able to acquire it they may view Suarez as an option there.  He's had success there already and he profiles better in that role than either Barria or Canning.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

This times eleventy.

How would it hurt Arte to go over the tax threshold by just a little for ONE season?   It’s almost like he’s so anti-tax.

You'd think with the Dodgers at nearly 300 mil in payroll he might think.... Yeah maybe for a year or two.... But here we are.

[Mark PT]

1 hour ago, Hells Rainbow said:

To me it’s too early to say he isn’t a starter.  That being said if he was going to be as good in the pen as he was this year going forward, then that’s where I’d want him to be. 

I agree. I think he is doing well. Just needs some fine tuning and he'll be a good starter. All this is contingent on if he improves but it looks good so far. I think he sometimes gets too predictable when down in the count and that's when he gets hurt.

[AngelsFaninGA]

Looking at his last 4 starts:

TOR: Did fine through the first 5 innings, unraveled in the 6th. Got zero run support

TEX: Fine through the first 5 innings, 2 ER in the 6th

COL: Defense had a total meltdown and fell behind early

OAK: Again, fine through 5 innings, ran into trouble in the 6th

So the theme seems to be to limit him to 5 innings for optimized success. I'll gladly take a guy who can limit the other team to 1-2 ER even if it's only over a max of 5 innings, especially considering what we've been dealing with the last few years. 

[eligrba]

He is 23. Give him a chance at starting and have more patience.  He is already better than he was last year.  And, he is only 23.

[Jason]

19 minutes ago, eligrba said:

He is 23. Give him a chance at starting and have more patience.  He is already better than he was last year.  And, he is only 23.

I agree with this. I think it’s safe for us to assume that he is still developing and will continue to improve