Jose Suarez: Starter or Reliever?

[totdprods]

33 minutes ago, eligrba said:

He is 23. Give him a chance at starting and have more patience.  He is already better than he was last year.  And, he is only 23.

I don't think this was intended to doubt he can start, it was more about what role he could play in 2022 based on his current results and our offseason needs. 

I have no doubt he can start - short-term and long-term - but with the amount of options we have, the starter(s) we likely acquire this winter, he might be better utilized in the pen to start '22.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Suarez might be their trade piece should they try to acquire someone via that route. 

Barria is (right or wrong), viewed as a finesse rightly and those types aren't really much in demand.  Suarez's change is a legit plus pitch and his FB plays from the left side.  He's got a chance to create value regardless of how he pitches because he's a lefty, can hit 94/95 and can manufacture outs with his change.  

It's hard to gauge his SP/RP splits in part because he's had the Angels bullpen following him into games.  Its true of every Angels starter.

One thing I've noticed about all of the young pitchers is that they tend to have a bad inning or two and then settle down, or vice versa: pitch well, then things get rocky. Meaning, growing pains.

I really like Suarez and hope he stays and makes the rotation. 

As for Barria, what you say is partially why I see him as more valuable to the Angels than as a trade chip. And again, he's probably every bit as good as starters that cost $5-8M/year on the free agent market. 

[WicketMaiden]

36 minutes ago, Jason said:

I agree with this. I think it’s safe for us to assume that he is still developing and will continue to improve

I was looking up some of the top pitchers that started young recently and noticed that the elite guys I was looking at all made a major improvement in FIP; ERA; WHIP, at around the 100 starts / 500 - 600 innings mark, aged around 26. Scherzer; Verlander; Grienke; Wheeler, plus two or three others I can't quite recall right now. (De Grom didn't start in the majors until he was in his age 26 season).

This isn't to say I think Suarez is headed into the elite bracket, but more to demonstrate that it takes 100 starts or so and a few seasons on the mound for a pitcher to fully understand his arsenal and how best to use it at the top level. Plenty more to come from Suarez, looking forward to it.

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, WicketMaiden said:

I was looking up some of the top pitchers that started young recently and noticed that the elite guys I was looking at all made a major improvement in FIP; ERA; WHIP, at around the 100 starts / 500 - 600 innings mark, aged around 26. Scherzer; Verlander; Grienke; Wheeler, plus two or three others I can't quite recall right now. (De Grom didn't start in the majors until he was in his age 26 season).

This isn't to say I think Suarez is headed into the elite bracket, but more to demonstrate that it takes 100 starts or so and a few seasons on the mound for a pitcher to fully understand his arsenal and how best to use it at the top level. Plenty more to come from Suarez, looking forward to it.

Nice research there. While I agree and would say that the same is true of hitters, I will add that everyone is different. Compare, for instance, Buster Posey vs. Jose Bautista. Posey was elite pretty much from his first at-bat, while it took Bautista something like 1500 PA to get going.

I do think that, as a general rule, pitchers take a bit longer than hitters, but I think the individuality of the player often overrides such trends.

[TBM-850]

The bullpen is 6 for 6 in allowing Suarez' inherited runners to score (as a starter).

[totdprods]

22 minutes ago, TBM-850 said:

The bullpen is 6 for 6 in allowing Suarez' inherited runners to score (as a starter).

Strangely, that makes an argument for him either way. 

[stormngt]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

Don't get me wrong, I love Barria. I wish the Angels would have kept him in the rotation all this time. He's a gamer and while I'm not sure he'll ever dominate, I think he's a good bet to give you 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 HR type starts 90% of the time. 

Just not sure he'll have a spot with all the arms in the mix and him being out of options. I hope I'm wrong. 

And I totally agree too, Suarez should absolutely start the remainder of the year - no reason to move him back to the bullpen. 
But if he continues to 'struggle' this year in the rotation, say 4-5 IP outings and allowing 2-3 runs with soft K numbers - it might be best to move him back to where he was succeeding for the start of '22 and work him back in to the rotation as needed.

Canning is a total wild card. He's making good on my prediction that he's our next Garrett Richards, a guy who we should have traded for a more established, durable pitcher while he had significant trade value. If Detmers rights the ship and guys like Bachman and Rodriguez prove they have the durability to start over the rest of 2021, he might get buried in the depth chart rather quickly.

I am willing to bet he is consistently better than 6 IP 3 ER.  Or 5 IP 2ER.  If not mistaken that would be a 5.4 ERA.

His career ERA is about 4.00 as a starter and that includes his disastrous 2019 year with Doub White.  I do not believe he is the sub 3.5 - 3.7 ERA.

I still stand by my prediction that Barria MLB numbers will be better than Heaneys which was about 4.5

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, WicketMaiden said:

I was looking up some of the top pitchers that started young recently and noticed that the elite guys I was looking at all made a major improvement in FIP; ERA; WHIP, at around the 100 starts / 500 - 600 innings mark, aged around 26. Scherzer; Verlander; Grienke; Wheeler, plus two or three others I can't quite recall right now. (De Grom didn't start in the majors until he was in his age 26 season).

This isn't to say I think Suarez is headed into the elite bracket, but more to demonstrate that it takes 100 starts or so and a few seasons on the mound for a pitcher to fully understand his arsenal and how best to use it at the top level. Plenty more to come from Suarez, looking forward to it.

If true the same could be said for Sandoval and Barria.

Edited August 11, 2021 by stormngt

[WicketMaiden]

19 minutes ago, stormngt said:

If true the same could be said for Sandival and Barria.

Canning too: he's only at 209 MLB innings and 41 starts, and is going through the same development bumps all the elite pitchers appear to have experienced judging by their first 100 games worth of stats or age 22 - 25 seasons. When he is healthy, Canning will be a fine pitcher once that final stack of pennies drop for him. 

[WicketMaiden]

28 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I am willing to bet he is consistently better than 6 IP 3 ER.  Or 5 IP 2ER.  If not mistaken that would be a 5.4 ERA.

His career ERA is about 4.00 as a starter and that includes his disastrous 2019 year with Doub White.  I do not believe he is the sub 3.5 - 3.7 ERA.

I still stand by my prediction that Barria MLB numbers will be better than Heaneys which was about 4.5

I think you might have jumbled up your numbers storm: 6IP 3ER is 4.5 ERA; 5IP 2ER is 3.6 ERA, either for Barria would do just fine.

I would be pleased as punch if we had 3 or 4 regular starters who regularly passed only 2 or 3 runs over to the bullpen after 5 or 6 innings. 

[totdprods]

24 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I am willing to bet he is consistently better than 6 IP 3 ER.  Or 5 IP 2ER.  If not mistaken that would be a 5.4 ERA.

His career ERA is about 4.00 as a starter and that includes his disastrous 2019 year with Doub White.  I do not believe he is the sub 3.5 - 3.7 ERA.

I still stand by my prediction that Barria MLB numbers will be better than Heaneys which was about 4.5

That's why I put a 90% of the time. 

He'll have a couple starts where he gets shelled, he'll have a couple starts where he puts up a 0. 

Like clockwork for most of his career he was almost good for something around a 5 IP, 2-3 ER, 5 H, 2-3 BB, 5 K, 2 HR type gig. It wasn't dominant and it wasn't giving much a break from the bullpen but he was consistently effective. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

5 hours ago, Second Base said:

Sure, the Angels probably have like 40-45 million they can spend this winter before reaching previous payroll levels, but there also needs to be some thought in terms of reserving some of those dollars for an Ohtani extension. 

Not to derail this with a tangent, but…

Ohtani is already signed for $5m for next year. If they do an extension, it would start in 2023. Even if they rip up the 2022 deal in the new deal, it wouldn’t add that much (maybe $2-3M?) because he’s still just in an arb year. 

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, WicketMaiden said:

I think you might have jumbled up your numbers storm: 6IP 3ER is 4.5 ERA; 5IP 2ER is 3.6 ERA, either for Barria would do just fine.

I would be pleased as punch if we had 3 or 4 regular starters who regularly passed only 2 or 3 runs over to the bullpen after 5 or 6 innings. 

I was referring to totprods numbers in a previous post