A Tale of Two Lineups

[Angelsjunky]

Consider:

Trout, Walsh, Ohtani, Stassi, Rendon: 2.9 WAR in 176 PA.

Everyone else: -1.1 WAR in 213 PA.

Now of course everyone in the first group--aside from Rendon--is off to a hot start and will cool down somewhat. And at least some of the players in the second group will improve (right)?

But of the first group, Rendon has the lowest wRC+ at 119; everyone else is at least a Ruthian 192 or higher. In the second group, the best wRC+ is Upton with 70; everyone else is 55 or lower.

Meaning, there are no players with a wRC+ in the 71-118 range, which we can call "below average to above average." Everyone has either raked or sucked.

We're only 10 games in so this is largely small sample size noise, but worth noting.

[Lou]

The biggest letdown thus far has been Fletcher. He has an OPS+ of 44.

[rageous]

20 minutes ago, Lou said:

The biggest letdown thus far has been Fletcher. He has an OPS+ of 44.

Hard to outdo what Rojas is doing with -78 OPS.

He has cost the team -0.3 wins while barely playing 2+ games.

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, rageous said:

Hard to outdo what Rojas is doing with -78 OPS.

He has cost the team -0.3 wins while barely playing 2+ games.

Nothing was expected of Rojas. The same can't be said about Fletcher.

[ScottT]

Its early 

[Jason]

31 minutes ago, Lou said:

Nothing was expected of Rojas. The same can't be said about Fletcher.

Like Rendon, I think we should hold off panic as it's only 10 games but yeah, Fletcher has sucked so far 

[totdprods]

57 minutes ago, Lou said:

The biggest letdown thus far has been Fletcher. He has an OPS+ of 44.

yup, he's reverted to the Fletcher that will sink or swim based on his BAbip. 

His offense will hinge on that far more than other players until he walks more consistently or discovers some power, which he did last year. Can he keep that up year in year out though? 

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

Like Rendon, I think we should hold off panic as it's only 10 games but yeah, Fletcher has sucked so far 

Who's panicking?

[Taylor]

11 minutes ago, ScottT said:

Its early 

@SmallSampleSize

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Consider:

Trout, Walsh, Ohtani, Stassi, Rendon: 2.9 WAR in 176 PA.

Everyone else: -1.1 WAR in 213 PA.

Now of course everyone in the first group--aside from Rendon--is off to a hot start and will cool down somewhat. And at least some of the players in the second group will improve (right)?

But of the first group, Rendon has the lowest wRC+ at 119; everyone else is at least a Ruthian 192 or higher. In the second group, the best wRC+ is Upton with 70; everyone else is 55 or lower.

Meaning, there are no players with a wRC+ in the 71-118 range, which we can call "below average to above average." Everyone has either raked or sucked.

We're only 10 games in so this is largely small sample size noise, but worth noting.

Certainly the most encouraging aspects, offensively, have been the production of Ohtani and Walsh.

Ohtani looks like he is back to his 2018 form, only actually better.  Walsh is continuing to hit like he did last year, which is huge.  He may not necessarily keep it up, but the fact that he is building upon what he did last season shows it is likely not a fluke.

Right now, we have multiple positions locked down for years (hopefully):  1B, 2B, 3B, CF, DH.  We likely have both RF and LF taken care of internally between all of the OF prospects we have.  This means that SS and C are the areas we need to be concerned with in terms of addressing in the near future.  SS, we do have some prospects, although they are likely several years away, so we likely need to sign a 2-year stop-gap.  C, organizationally, is probably our only black hole in that we don't really seem to have any prospects of note, so we'll have to draft/develop and figure out whether we want to extend Stassi, etc. 

[Slegnaac]

Didn't Fletch score from first against the Jays?  He has been agressive on the bases, correct?  

[WicketMaiden]

34 minutes ago, totdprods said:

yup, he's reverted to the Fletcher that will sink or swim based on his BAbip. 

 

Fletch's BaBip is .256 this year, against a .318 career average and .348 in 2020 (MLB average is .296), so we could argue he has been unlucky. His batting average is generally 30 points below his BABip in any given year. 

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

Fletch's BaBip is .256 this year, against a .318 career average and .348 in 2020 (MLB average is .296), so we could argue he has been unlucky. His batting average is generally 30 points below his BABip in any given year. 

That’s kinda my point. 

When your offensive profile is almost entirely consisting of hitting singles, you are only going to go as far as BAbip allows, more or less.  You’ll be tied to how good you are at “hitting it where they ain’t” and if you can’t walk at a 9-10% clip or better or pop a dozen home runs, your line is gonna look real ugly real fast if you’re not getting singles. Fletcher doesn’t have elite speed to help him out either.

That’s not a knock on him...basically we’re seeing minor league/MLB debut Fletcher right now, but he showed us the last two years there’s potential for more.

[Lou]

16 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

Didn't Fletch score from first against the Jays?  He has been agressive on the bases, correct?  

Rendon scored from first against the White Sox.

Granted, it was on Walsh's HR . . . 

[Angelsjunky]

I'm not worried about Fletcher. He'll hit anywhere from .280 to .320 year-in, year out. He'll get things going soon enough.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

27 minutes ago, Lou said:

Rendon scored from first against the White Sox.

Granted, it was on Walsh's HR . . . 

Unlike Justin Turner.

[Warfarin]

38 minutes ago, totdprods said:

That’s kinda my point. 

When your offensive profile is almost entirely consisting of hitting singles, you are only going to go as far as BAbip allows, more or less.  You’ll be tied to how good you are at “hitting it where they ain’t” and if you can’t walk at a 9-10% clip or better or pop a dozen home runs, your line is gonna look real ugly real fast if you’re not getting singles. Fletcher doesn’t have elite speed to help him out either.

That’s not a knock on him...basically we’re seeing minor league/MLB debut Fletcher right now, but he showed us the last two years there’s potential for more.

This is also why Fletcher likely signed the deal he did.  People felt he got cheated, but if for some reason he regresses in his hitting abilities, then his earning ceiling becomes much lower.  Regression can come at anytime for anyone, and he (smartly) cashed in after a fantastic season.  It may end up as a bargain for us, but this also helps protect him in case 2020 ends up being his best offensive season.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

Certainly the most encouraging aspects, offensively, have been the production of Ohtani and Walsh.

Ohtani looks like he is back to his 2018 form, only actually better.  Walsh is continuing to hit like he did last year, which is huge.  He may not necessarily keep it up, but the fact that he is building upon what he did last season shows it is likely not a fluke.

Right now, we have multiple positions locked down for years (hopefully):  1B, 2B, 3B, CF, DH.  We likely have both RF and LF taken care of internally between all of the OF prospects we have.  This means that SS and C are the areas we need to be concerned with in terms of addressing in the near future.  SS, we do have some prospects, although they are likely several years away, so we likely need to sign a 2-year stop-gap.  C, organizationally, is probably our only black hole in that we don't really seem to have any prospects of note, so we'll have to draft/develop and figure out whether we want to extend Stassi, etc. 

Yes, agreed.

There was always the sense that Ohtani had another octave, and I think Walsh is legit. I can see a .270/.350/.550, 35 HR year from him.

Long-term both the OF and MI should be fine. The next year or two at SS could be dicey if Iglesias doesn't get his shit together. But I'm hoping Rengifo is the guy to hold down the position until Paris/Vera/Jackson are ready.

Catcher is a massive black hole, but I think fantasy baseball logic has some relevance: it is a position you can just plug in late rounds with a warm body, or in the case of real baseball, a solid defender. Buster Poseys don't grow on trees.

Stassi is promising but can't stay healthy. 

[rageous]

48 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

Fletch's BaBip is .256 this year, against a .318 career average and .348 in 2020 (MLB average is .296), so we could argue he has been unlucky. His batting average is generally 30 points below his BABip in any given year. 

It's not the Babip that is the concern which you can sometimes attribute it to bad luck 

He is hitting the ball with even less authority.  He was already a slap hitter and his exit velocity has fallen off more than 4mph from his career average.

Also his walk rate is half of what it was last year.  

[Angelsjunky]

17 minutes ago, rageous said:

It's not the Babip that is the concern which you can sometimes attribute it to bad luck 

He is hitting the ball with even less authority.  He was already a slap hitter and his exit velocity has fallen off more than 4mph from his career average.

Also his walk rate is half of what it was last year.  

The two are often connected: low BABIP can indicate not making good contact (without authority).

He seems uncomfortable and lacking confidence. I have faith he'll figure it out, though.

Edited April 13, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[T.G.]

9 minutes ago, rageous said:

It's not the Babip that is the concern which you can sometimes attribute it to bad luck 

He is hitting the ball with even less authority.  He was already a slap hitter and his exit velocity has fallen off more than 4mph from his career average.

Also his walk rate is half of what it was last year.  

10 games....

[sammyscioscia]

The league adjusted to Fletcher, now Fletcher has to adjust to the league

[Angelsjunky]

7 minutes ago, True Grich said:

10 games....

You mean Trout won't have a .474 BABIP all year?! 

FUCK.

[T.G.]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

You mean Trout won't have a .474 BABIP all year?!

When it comes to Mike Trout, anything is possible - even the impossible.

[Angelsjunky]

Fun fact(s):

High full-season BABIP: Hugh Duffy .433 in 1894 (he hit .440 that year, highest in history). I'm not sure how his BA was higher, but I guess it has something to do with sacrifice hits - they don't count as ABs but do count as PA, so I guess BABIP is based on PA.

In more recent decades, Rod Carew had a .408 BABIP in 1977 when he hit .388.

Yoan Moncada actually had a .406 BABIP in 2019, which is the highest since Carew. Only Jose Hernandez and Manny Ramirez have had over .400 BABIP in a single season since Carew.