Revising Active Players and the Hall of Fame

[Angelsjunky]

A topic that resurfaces every so often; I felt like revisiting it. As I see it:

ELIGIBLE (10+ Years)

Definites (already in, if they packed it in right now): Pujols, Trout, Cabrera, Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, Cano.

Maybe-to-Probably (needs to pad stats, or wait a bit for induction): Votto, Molina, Posey, Longoria, Donaldson, Goldschmidt, Stanton, Freeman, Cruz, Altuve, McCutchen, Strasburg.

Hall of Very Good (no cigar, but good career): Upton, Pedroia, Braun, Gardner, Hamels, Lester, Bumgarner, Wainwright.

Of the above, the middle category could go either way, depending upon the player. Some of those guys will be voted in years after their five-year eligibility, others never.

NOT ELIGIBLE (<10 Years)

Definite (once get to 10 years, barring catastrophe) : Betts.

Maybe-to-Probably (has a decent or better chance, but too soon/need to see how career goes): Machado, Harper, deGrom, Rendon, Arenado, Lindor, Ramirez, Sale, Bieber, Yelich, and lots of younger guys.

Mookie is a great player and will make it once he earns eligibility in 2023, when he'll be entering his age 30 season with over 50 WAR. If Trout is Mantle, Betts is DiMaggio - he's that good.

Probably missing some guys that deserve mention.

Edited September 19, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[failos]

Nelson Cruz will never be in the hall of fame.

[Angelsjunky]

7 minutes ago, failos said:

Nelson Cruz will never be in the hall of fame.

Probably not, but 417 HR and he's as good as he's ever been, despite being 40. He could be over 450 HR after next year and just two years from surpassing 500. He's getting into David Ortiz territory.

[Claude]

Torii Hunter doesn’t get enough love.

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, RendZone said:

Torii Hunter doesn’t get enough love.

1) He's not an active player.

2) With 43 career WAR he's a classic Hall of the Very Good (roughly 40-60 WAR).

Jim Edmonds and Bobby Grich are far more worthy of butthurt outrage.

Edited September 19, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[failos]

59 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Probably not, but 417 HR and he's as good as he's ever been, despite being 40. He could be over 450 HR after next year and just two years from surpassing 500. He's getting into David Ortiz territory.

My comment was based on the fact that he was caught using roids.

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, failos said:

My comment was based on the fact that he was caught using roids.

Fair enough. He might be Palmeiro-ed.

[Stradling]

21 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Fair enough. He might be Palmeiro-ed.

As will Cano.  

[JustATroutFan]

One day, we'll see guys like Bonds, Clemens, and Manny in the Hall of Fame. Why? Gaylord Perry cheated when he was pitching in the big leagues and is still in the MLB Hall of Fame. The Hall of Fame has lost a lot of credibility over the years, especially when you see guys like Jack Morris and Harold Baines make it. No shade at those two players but does anyone really think that they're really worthy of making it into the Hall of Fame, outside of the voters?

[JustATroutFan]

Also, McGriff should be in the MLB Hall of Fame. 493 career home runs? *****, didn't have a chance to get there because of the strike in 1994 that continued into 1995. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

On 9/19/2020 at 4:10 PM, Angelsjunky said:

ELIGIBLE (10+ Years)

Definites (already in, if they packed it in right now): Pujols, Trout, Cabrera, Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, Cano.

Maybe-to-Probably (needs to pad stats, or wait a bit for induction): Votto, Molina, Posey, Longoria, Donaldson, Goldschmidt, Stanton, Freeman, Cruz, Altuve, McCutchen, Strasburg.

Remove Greinke, Cano, Longoria, Donaldson, Goldschdmit, Stanton, Freeman, Cruz, Altuve, McCutchen and Strasburg. 

[tdawg87]

Lol

[Inside Pitch]

Black ink, Grey ink, HOF Monitor, and HOF Standards, data is a good place to look when comparing guys with similar lifetime totals. 

That's also where guys like Longoria, Goldschmidt, Donaldson, McCutchen really fall off, and where you can see how despite similar totals/positions, Verlander and Greinke (both HOFers IMO), Cruz and Ortiz, were different players.  Maybe its better to say, had different impacts... 

Basically they are just measures of how often a player led the league, placed among the league leaders, or reached certain statistical platueaus. The intention being to measure a player against his peers in hopes of pointing to true dominance, or to differentiate between good and truly great players.

This is where guys at traditionally weaker offensive positions get dinged too...  Cano actually did really well in those categories as a 2B, coupled with being a Yankee it was looking good for him then steroids, boom....

[Angelsjunky]

6 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Remove Greinke, Cano, Longoria, Donaldson, Goldschdmit, Stanton, Freeman, Cruz, Altuve, McCutchen and Strasburg. 

I originally had that group in two separate categories, "probably" and "maybe." In "probably" I had Greinke and Cano, the rest in "maybe." I'd like to hear your argument against Greinke and Cano, as I think they are probably - at least based on their records relative to the era (e.g. lower win totals) and positional context (how Cano compares to other 2B). 

The rest I see as maybe, depending upon how they wrap up their careers and how voters view them in hindsight, years after they become eligible. None will be immediate. But let's say Goldschmidt or Freeman age well? Let's say Altuve has a resurgence? I don't see any of them as likely, but all are possible.

Donaldson is an interesting case, because he's rather similar to Chase Utley: one of the very best players in the game for about half a decade, but started late. I think it is probably unlikely for Donaldson, but if he had a few more good years and brought his WAR to around 60, he might sneak in eventually.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Black ink, Grey ink, HOF Monitor, and HOF Standards, data is a good place to look when comparing guys with similar lifetime totals. 

That's also where guys like Longoria, Goldschmidt, Donaldson, McCutchen really fall off, and where you can see how despite similar totals/positions, Verlander and Greinke (both HOFers IMO), Cruz and Ortiz, were different players.  Maybe its better to say, had different impacts... 

Basically they are just measures of how often a player led the league, placed among the league leaders, or reached certain statistical platueaus. The intention being to measure a player against his peers in hopes of pointing to true dominance, or to differentiate between good and truly great players.

This is where guys at traditionally weaker offensive positions get dinged too...  Cano actually did really well in those categories as a 2B, coupled with being a Yankee it was looking good for him then steroids, boom....

Grich, Whitaker and Utley are worth mentioning. All with WARs similar to many Hall of Famers--and better than a bunch--but all played 2B, which is somewhat under-represented in the Hall.

[Inside Pitch]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Grich, Whitaker and Utley are worth mentioning. All with WARs similar to many Hall of Famers--and better than a bunch--but all played 2B, which is somewhat under-represented in the Hall.

Yep, those guys are HOFers IMO -- I was sticking to the names that were being thrown out there but, all three of those guys were amazing offensive players at a position that wasn't nearly as potent as they are these days.  Grich IMO got stiffed because he wasn't a batting average guy in a time when .300 was viewed as the end all be all of hitter greatness.   That career .371 OBP was not appreciated enough in that era.

[Capital_Dave]

8 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Remove Greinke, Cano, Longoria, Donaldson, Goldschdmit, Stanton, Freeman, Cruz, Altuve, McCutchen and Strasburg. 

Surely you would remove Posey from that list too, right @Jeff Fletcher?

[T.G.]

Posey is a pocket pick

[Jeff Fletcher]

7 hours ago, Game 6 said:

So, why would Verlander definitely be in the HOF and Greinke would not?

They have very similar numbers, ages and careers. Verlander is out in 2020 and Greinke is still going strong.

 

 

To be honest I didn’t even look at any stats, and I would never vote based on my pure “perception,” but this is a message board and I have a long time before I even need to consider these questions, so what the hell. 
 

And my perception is that Verlander probably pitched a lot more innings, had a lot more CGs and more All-Star Games and Cy Youngs. (After I write this I’m gonna go look it up.) So even if their ERA’s are similar, that’s why I would put Verlander in a different class. 

1 hour ago, Capital_Dave said:

Surely you would remove Posey from that list too, right @Jeff Fletcher?

Perception again, but Buster is borderline. I suspect I wouldn’t vote for him, but I didn’t think he deserved to be in the same auto-no category as the guys I eliminated. 
 

(EDIT: I looked and Verlander did edge Greinke in all those things but not by a lot. Having now looked at the numbers for 3 minutes instead of 0 minutes, I say Verlander is a lock and Greinke is borderline. There is definitely a difference. Not a huge difference, but there aren’t huge differences in a lot of guys on the ballot. You’re basically separating the top 1 percent from the top 2 percent.)

Edited September 21, 2020 by Jeff Fletcher

[Stradling]

Hey @Jeff Fletcher what do you think Joe Mayer’s chances are of being voted in?

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Hey @Jeff Fletcher what do you think Joe Mayer’s chances are of being voted in?

Joe Mauer?

Without looking, I’d say pretty slim. If you compare him to other IB since he didn’t catch his whole career, I don’t think he makes it. 

[Stradling]

Yes Mauer, my phone autocorrected it.   I wasn’t sure how the hall would view him as he caught half of his career games.  55 total WAR, most accumulated while at catcher.   Higher career WAR than other guys talked about like Molina and Posey and similar WAR to Piazza.  

[happybat4]

2 hours ago, Game 6 said:

Actually, Greinke has more CG's 16 to 9 and it was one of your categories.

I really don't see how a case is made to have one in but not the other. I think they are both locks.

If you include hitting and baserunning Greinke has a higher WAR than Verlander.

[Duren, Duren]

I think Votto is an interesting case. Almost a 62 WAR, a .305 lifetime batting average and probably will end up with around 350 homers. 420 OBP, 149 OPS + for his career. League leader in OBP and walks for various seasons. Also a one time league MVP and multiple all star.

Not necessarily classic first baseman power, but most seasons he consistently hit for 20 plus homers. After 14 years he's declining but still useful. Problem is that he plays for a small market team that mostly was very bad during his career. Now he's a mentor to an emerging team with more talent.

HOF first basemen numbers are hard to match, but I see him getting in either on his  5th - 10th or so season of eligibility or via the veteran's committee. 

[T.G.]

Yadier Molina and his 9 gold gloves would get my vote.