Mike Trout Defensive Decline

[happybat4]

Baseball Reference says his defense has been horrible this year. He also does not seem to be walking much or stealing bases. Is he going to only be 5-7 WAR player now? Still great, but might be time to plus Goodwin in center and move Trout to left. 

[Sully151]

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!

I think that pretty much sums up this thread.

[Stradling]

Haha haha.  His defense isn’t horrible.  This isn’t why his defense doesn’t look to be as good as it had been.  He isn’t walking as much because they are pitching to him because of Rendon hitting behind him.  

 

 

[fan_since79]

I believe they were talking about Babe Ruth's decline in 1925 when he hit only 25 home runs. Same nonsense.

 

[tdawg87]

[JustATroutFan]

The way I see it, I won't consider Trout being in decline as player, as a hitter and defender, until he plays 162 games, or something close it it, like in the 130-150 games range. This season, from my standpoint of Trout, it's just whatever. Go ahead and start judging a player's on-the-field performance in a season that has a small amount of games. Trout could steal 30-40 bases if he wanted to. Don't let some stupid numbers let you doubt his abilities. 

[Claude]

Trout has been carrying the team since he got here. Nothing to read here.

[Lou]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

He isn’t walking as much because they are pitching to him because of Rendon hitting behind him.

Bingo 

[Stradling]

51 minutes ago, RendZone said:

Trout has been carrying the team since he got here. Nothing to read here.

Which means absolutely nothing.  This isn’t basketball, it isn’t football.  It is pitcher versus hitter once every 9 batters.  That’s it.  Carrying the team is just another ridiculous narrative.  

[Justin]

I have several concerns about the 2020 Angels. 

Mike Trout is not one of them. 

[Jay]

1 hour ago, RendZone said:

Trout has been carrying the team since he got here. Nothing to read here.

Carrying them nowhere.

[Jeff Fletcher]

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/04/05/mike-trout-on-a-mission-to-improve-his-defense-and-maybe-win-a-gold-glove/
 

I wrote this a couple seasons ago about why defensive metrics hate Trout so much. After I wrote this he did improve. But I think he’s never going to grade well based on a few factors, which you can read in the story. 
 

I assume he’ll end up in left in a few years and someone like Marsh will be in center. 

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Which means absolutely nothing.  This isn’t basketball, it isn’t football.  It is pitcher versus hitter once every 9 batters.  That’s it.  Carrying the team is just another ridiculous narrative.  

a basketball star can impact every play.  a football star pretty much every other play.  A baseball star maybe about 10% of the game.  

which means a slight defensive decline has very little overall impact to the team's success.  

probably one of the most impactful seasons by a position player in baseball was Ruth in 1923 with over 14 WAR.  The yankees won the world series that year but also had the best pitching in the league.  

Ruth had 71.6 WAR from 1920-1926 when he came to the yanks and was an absolute dominant force well beyond what Trout has provided from a value standpoint over a similar period.  Yet during that time, there was only the one championship.  There were many season where Ruth, by himself, out homered every other team in the league.  In 1923 he had 50% more batting WAR than the next closest player.  The next season, Ruth almost doubled the next closest player and they didn't win the WS.  

Another way to look at it is that for basketball, your top 2 players can lead you to a championship.  For football, it's probably your top 5.  For baseball it might take 10 or more.  Mike Trout drops that needed 10 to maybe 7 or 8.  

[eligrba]

2 hours ago, happybat4 said:

Baseball Reference says his defense has been horrible this year. He also does not seem to be walking much or stealing bases. Is he going to only be 5-7 WAR player now? Still great, but might be time to plus Goodwin in center and move Trout to left. 

Might be time for you to return in making your bat happy.

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, happybat4 said:

Baseball Reference says his defense has been horrible this year. He also does not seem to be walking much or stealing bases. Is he going to only be 5-7 WAR player now? Still great, but might be time to plus Goodwin in center and move Trout to left. 

This is why counting stats are bad and predictive data is king.  (saying this because of the 5-7 WAR comment)

Mike Trout is walking less while posting a career low OSwing% meaning he's never swung at fewer balls.   His swing% as a whole is also as a career low, meanwhile his zone% is at a career high -- what this means is he is seeing more strikes than ever and when you couple that with the fact that his barrel% is at a career high the end result is he is swinging less often and making better contact when he does swing.  This is basically the best version of Mike Trout we have seen.  Lastly  His hard hit ball % is at a career high as his his HR/FB rate as is his average exit velocity.

The big difference is he's not being pitched around because Rendon, Ohtani and whatever guy on a hot streak is following behind them is making it harder to pitch around him.   

As far as his defensive numbers go -- a bad start defensively will continue to look bad until the innings pile up.  Defensive metrics as a whole are hard to gauge mostly due to there being a need for 3 or so seasons worth of data to get a real idea of whether or not a guy is a good or bad defender.

[eaterfan]

I think he plays to deep and lets a lot of balls that look like tough plays off the bat drop in for hits. He does make cool plays robbing HRs, though 

Still the best player in baseball, just a different player than he was 8 years ago.

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/04/05/mike-trout-on-a-mission-to-improve-his-defense-and-maybe-win-a-gold-glove/
 

I wrote this a couple seasons ago about why defensive metrics hate Trout so much. After I wrote this he did improve. But I think he’s never going to grade well based on a few factors, which you can read in the story. 
 

I assume he’ll end up in left in a few years and someone like Marsh will be in center. 

Great point about not risking Trout crashing into the fence in making a long run at a drive, because that’s what ended Pete Reiser’s career and has affected Harper’s..

[fan_since79]

4 hours ago, Jay said:

Carrying them nowhere.

They'd be a lot worse than nowhere without Trout.

I mean, historically bad. 

[happybat4]

I'm being serious, just noticed the drop, always knew he would need to move at some point. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

7 hours ago, happybat4 said:

Baseball Reference says his defense has been horrible this year. He also does not seem to be walking much or stealing bases. Is he going to only be 5-7 WAR player now? Still great, but might be time to plus Goodwin in center and move Trout to left. 

5-7 WAR in a 60 game season would other worldly...

[happybat4]

1 minute ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

5-7 WAR in a 60 game season would other worldly...

He's only on pace for 1.5-2 WAR for this season. I'm referring to 5-7 for a full regular season. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

The Angels have 4 players in the top 10 in the AL in fWAR. Bundy 1.1, Rendon 1.0, Fletcher 0.9, Trout 0.9...

[happybat4]

3 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

The Angels have 4 players in the top 10 in the AL in fWAR. Bundy 1.1, Rendon 1.0, Fletcher 0.9, Trout 0.9...

Bwar rates Trout at. 5.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

He's only on pace for 1.5-2 WAR for this season. I'm referring to 5-7 for a full regular season. 

I knew that; just having fun at OP expense. But with 1/3 of the season with 0.9 fWAR including missing 4 games for the birth of his son. He should get at least a 3 fWAR which would 9 fWAR in regular season.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Defensive data at this point in the season is useless. Also B-war is trash. This topic is useless.