Trout vs Cole - something to think about

[Angel Oracle]

Cole got a contract with a total worth 3/4 of what Trout's new contract is, and is getting AAV of $1 million more than Trout.

Trout has been a superstar for all 8 seasons.    Cole has had superstar caliber seasons for THREE out of SEVEN seasons (2015 and 2018-2019).

We can discount the Houston cheating, because he had a lower ERA away from Houston in 2019.

Cole may well be in a peak period for say 3-4 years.    But if he falls off after that, 9 years/$324 million is quite the albatross of a contract.   Halos have already gone through that once.

[Jason]

I agree and think the likely outcome is the Yanks will hate it in about 5 or 6 years. 

[Tank]

Just now, Jason said:

I agree and think the likely outcome is the Yanks will hate it in about 5 or 6 years. 

if they win another WS or two in that time, they'll probably be okay with it.

[eaterfan]

I think Mike Trout is massively underpaid, but also, you can't compare players who hit the open market to those who don't. The situations were different but I think it shows another reason why developing a farm system is so important. It really gives a club leverage to sign the players they develop early to cheap deals before they have to bid against other clubs.

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

8 minutes ago, Tank said:

if they win another WS or two in that time, they'll probably be okay with it.

Agreed. If we would have won a WS in Pujols' tenure and he aided in that, I don't think you'd find a lot of fans who hated that contract as much as you do now. 

[eligrba4ever]

 Trout vs. Cole: Automatic IBB. Next hitter.

[Angel Oracle]

It is better to extend your own superstars, vs bringing them in from elsewhere as FAs.    Can't underestimate knowing all of a player's idiosyncracies.

A strong farm system is essential to long term success here.

With some ten college pitchers expected to go in the first round in June, it is pretty good odds that a college pitcher will be the best guy available at overall pick #10.

[eligrba4ever]

19 minutes ago, Jason said:

I agree and think the likely outcome is the Yanks will hate it in about 5 or 6 years. 

There's a player opt-out after 5.

[ukyah]

the yanks are going to be very happy with cole. they don't care about the money. he's going to dominate and they'll win a world series with him. might as well accept that, then move on with your own business.

[TroutCron]

2 minutes ago, eligrba4ever said:

There's a player opt-out after 5.

A player opt-out but can you imagine Cole leaving 4/144 on the table?  

[ukyah]

sometimes you don't get to fuck the prom queen. that doesn't mean there aren't other knockouts who may be willing to do the dirty stuff that she isn't. sometimes what seems like second place turns out to be the grand prize. 

 

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, ukyah said:

sometimes you don't get to fuck the prom queen. that doesn't mean there aren't other knockouts who may be willing to do the dirty stuff that she isn't. sometimes what seems like second place turns out to be the grand prize. 

 

[Angelsjunky]

On a serious note, the thing I keep coming back to is that Cole will be paid more than Trout for the next nine years. Hard to justify that. Trout is a true 9 WAR player, whereas Cole is probably a 6 WAR player (with one or two 10+/7+ seasons sprinkled in). Both will decline as they age, but whereas a 'declining' Trout might be a 6 WAR player, a declining Cole might 4 WAR. 

So while it sucks that we didn't get Cole, I can't blame Eppler and Arte for not wanting to shell out even more than the Yankees did. 8/$292M (or whatever the Angels offered) was a more than reasonable place to stop.

[eaterfan]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

On a serious note, the thing I keep coming back to is that Cole will be paid more than Trout for the next nine years. Hard to justify that. Trout is a true 9 WAR player, whereas Cole is probably a 6 WAR player (with one or two 10+/7+ seasons sprinkled in). Both will decline as they age, but whereas a 'declining' Trout might be a 6 WAR player, a declining Cole might 4 WAR. 

So while it sucks that we didn't get Cole, I can't blame Eppler and Arte for not wanting to shell out even more than the Yankees did. 8/$292M (or whatever the Angels offered) was a more than reasonable place to stop.

Once again, these were different situations: comparing how much it costs to sign a FA to how much it costs to extend a player is not fair. It's like saying how can you pay Trout that much when Acuna makes so little? If you don't have the player to extend then you have to pay the premium to sign someone. That's how you justify it. If Trout had hit the open market I'd bet the Yankees would have offered $500 million. The Angels got a steep discount because of player control just like the Braves are getting a steeper discount on Acuna because of even more control.

[Angel Oracle]

1 minute ago, eaterfan said:

Once again, these were different situations: comparing how much it costs to sign a FA to how much it costs to extend a player is not fair. It's like saying how can you pay Trout that much when Acuna makes so little? If you don't have the player to extend then you have to pay the premium to sign someone. That's how you justify it. If Trout had hit the open market I'd bet the Yankees would have offered $500 million. 

Exactly why the strongest possible farm system is the way to go.   Eppler is on the right track with that.

[Revad]

20 minutes ago, ukyah said:

the yanks are going to be very happy with cole. they don't care about the money. he's going to dominate and they'll win a world series with him. might as well accept that, then move on with your own business.

Cole puts them over the top, if he stays healthy the balance of power in the AL has shifted.  As much as Cole would have been worth to the Angels he is worth more to the Yankees.