Fangraphs article might offer hope for Upton in 2020

[Taylor]

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/effect-on-hitter-production-of-an-early-season-injury/

I saw this on r/angels. In 2019, players who started the season on the IL and had fewer than 300 plate appearances all performed poorly compared to their career numbers. Upton fit that bill.

It's safe to assume that Upton isn't done, but might have a bit of a resurgence next season if he can stay healthy.

[Fish Oil]

I think this is a reasonably safe assumption. Anyone can go through what he did this year and it has little to do with his age. I feel confident that he will come back strong next year.

 

[tdawg87]

Upton's final line in 2020: .254/.340/.469, 31 HR, 98 RBI, 4.0 WAR, people still bitch and call him Melvin.

[Angelsjunky]

Andrelton Simmons, too. He missed time in May-June, and then again August, but was never the same after his initial injury. Consider:

Through 5/20: .298/.323/.415, 97 wRC+

6/27 - end of season: .233/.297/.319, 67 wRC+

 

[Pancake Bear]

12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Andrelton Simmons, too. He missed time in May-June, and then again August, but was never the same after his initial injury. Consider:

Through 5/20: .298/.323/.415, 97 wRC+

6/27 - end of season: .233/.297/.319, 67 wRC+

 

This is why I’m semi-bullish on both and reluctant to let either go. That’s around 8-9 WAR, realistically. Hard to replace. Those two were a big part of why 2019 sucked. 

[Angelsjunky]

13 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

This is why I’m semi-bullish on both and reluctant to let either go. That’s around 8-9 WAR, realistically. Hard to replace. Those two were a big part of why 2019 sucked. 

Yep. As I said awhile back, their shared bad year is the second biggest reason the Angels sucked in 2019. 8.5 (in 2018) to 1.5 fWAR is a big drop....-7 wins just from those two guys.

Even if they both have just modest bounce-backs, say 3-4 WAR for Simmons and 2-3 WAR for Upton, that's +5-7 wins.

[tdawg87]

3 WAR for Upton

3 WAR for Simmons

6 WAR for Cole 

+1 WAR for Trout

+2 WAR for Ohtani

That's 15 wins. Throw in Wheeler (4 wins) and a decent catcher (2 wins) and that's a 93 win team. 

I'll be in my bunk.

 

[ukyah]

it's nice to see some positivity in this thread. it's crazy how quickly fans resort to calling a player "done" or a "pussy" when they've been a strong performer over their career, but have a season where they are clearly hurt and get zero respect.

[tdawg87]

Just now, RBM said:

Unfortunately, the two wild card teams had 96 and 97 wins this year...

Season over.

[Second Base]

That is why I think the team already has the pieces in place to be a winning ball club, at least on offense.

If Upton and Simmons are healthy they'll be in decent shape. 

The big thing will be if the young guys can take a step forward like I think they will. Thaiss, Walsh and Ward all have that ability. Rengifo is going to get his shot. And if Adell and Marsh play up to their ability, this team would be scary.

And here's an unexpected x-factor, Kevan Smith. Before he got hurt, he made it abundantly clear he's the bat fans are longing for from the catching position. But he needs to develop defensively. If he's healthy and improved behind the plate, then you won't need Yasmani Grandal.

[tdawg87]

But my point stands. Once you become a legit 90+ win team, you're immediately in the playoff conversation. The Astros won 107 games in 2019, but that doesn't mean they should be expected to win 100+ games in 2020. No team should. 

Hell between roster changes, scheduling, and other factors (injuries, down years, etc...) 93 games could win the AL West in 2020.

Edited November 3, 2019 by tdawg87

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

That is why I think the team already has the pieces in place to be a winning ball club, at least on offense.

If Upton and Simmons are healthy they'll be in decent shape. 

The big thing will be if the young guys can take a step forward like I think they will. Thaiss, Walsh and Ward all have that ability. Rengifo is going to get his shot. And if Adell and Marsh play up to their ability, this team would be scary.

And here's an unexpected x-factor, Kevan Smith. Before he got hurt, he made it abundantly clear he's the bat fans are longing for from the catching position. But he needs to develop defensively. If he's healthy and improved behind the plate, then you won't need Yasmani Grandal.

But imagine Grandal and Smith as a catching duo.

[Second Base]

4 minutes ago, RBM said:

Unfortunately, the two wild card teams had 96 and 97 wins this year...

Yes, but I think if the Angels win 93 games next year, it will be enough to get Eppler the extension he wants, and it would out the Angels in a position going forward where they'd be  able to spend on free agents, extend current players and enjoy the benefits of that farm system Billy has worked so hard to build.

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

But imagine Grandal and Smith as a catching duo.

Excites me almost as much as the thought of Smith improving defensively and Stassi improving offensively and not needing to spend the money or the draft pick and international bonus slot it would take for Grandal.

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Stassi improving offensively

[tdawg87]

Also isn't Stassi going to miss the first 3 months of the season, at least?

[CanadianHalo]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Also isn't Stassi going to miss the first 3 months of the season, at least?

We can only hope

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Yeah, I know...

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Also isn't Stassi going to miss the first 3 months of the season, at least?

Not that I know of. Maybe I missed something.

[Claude]

Andy Dufresne: "Hope is a good thing, may be the best of the things. And good thing never dies." 

[Docwaukee]

58 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

3 WAR for Upton

3 WAR for Simmons

6 WAR for Cole 

+1 WAR for Trout

+2 WAR for Ohtani

That's 15 wins. Throw in Wheeler (4 wins) and a decent catcher (2 wins) and that's a 93 win team. 

I'll be in my bunk.

 

and no improvement from anyone else.  Like Rengifo, Canning, Heaney, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, Buttrey, Middleton, Anderson, Thaiss or a full season from La Stella.  Or Adell coming up and contributing.  With our only loss being Calhoun.  

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

and no improvement from anyone else.  Like Rengifo, Canning, Heaney, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, Buttrey, Middleton, Anderson, Thaiss or a full season from La Stella.  Or Adell coming up and contributing.  With our only loss being Calhoun.  

Calhoun had 108 wRC+. Not bad, but not extraordinary either. His defense might be difficult to replace, but overall value? No. Both FG and BR had him around 2.5 WAR in 2019. Goodwin wouldn't be worth that much less if he played a full season. If Adell is ready in 2020 (which is the only way they bring him up), he should easily be worth that, imo.

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Calhoun had 108 wRC+. Not bad, but not extraordinary either. His defense might be difficult to replace, but overall value? No. Both FG and BR had him around 2.5 WAR in 2019. Goodwin wouldn't be worth that much less if he played a full season. If Adell is ready in 2020 (which is the only way they bring him up), he should easily be worth that, imo.

I agree and that's kinda my point.  

If I were to speculate on where we might get a little less production it would be out of Goodwin, Robles and Bedrosian.  I would also say La Stella but I think playing a full season would easily offset a slight drop in per PA production.  I think Robles will be similar.  Cam could drop a bit but it wouldn't likely have a huge impact.  Goodwin started out on fire and settled in at about a .750 ops.  People complain about his defense but he's actually avg or better in RF and can back up CF solidly.  He was just terrible in LF where he's not gonna play much if at all.  I think he's about a 2 WAR player right now.  

[tdawg87]

Just now, RBM said:

I totally agree.

And I also don't think of WAR as a literal interpretation of wins like a jigsaw puzzle. We could make those moves and end up with 90 wins or 98 wins.

Oh I agree completely. WAR is an individual stat. But I think it's a good basic guideline. 

For example, I'd say Cole and Wheeler are worth an extra 10-12 wins. Maybe more, considering who they're replacing.

[UndertheHalo]

Too much positivity in this thread.  I don’t like it.