Predict Cole contract

[Pancake Bear]

12 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I don't agree. He's 2 years older than Cole and has 4 years left on his current deal. If he gets a big upgrade in AAV I could definitely see him taking a 5 year deal. 6 at most. He's not getting 7 years.

He’s getting six if he opts out. Probably he stays with WAS with a Kershaw type deal. 

Anyone who thinks they’re getting any ace for that few of years is a dope. They may have let Greinke walk for that reason, but at the time Arte thought pitching was set and we needed a bat.  It’s obvious that at present we need pitching. He won’t screw it up. 

[Pancake Bear]

20 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Ehhh, Verlander is the Cy Young IMO.

 

17 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

A case could be made for either one...but what Cole has done since May cannot be overlooked.

As it is, Verlander & Cole will probably be 1 & 2.

You could make a strong case for Cole, but Verlander will almost certainly win. 

[tdawg87]

11 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

He’s getting six if he opts out. Probably he stays with WAS with a Kershaw type deal. 

Anyone who thinks they’re getting any ace for that few of years is a dope. They may have let Greinke walk for that reason, but at the time Arte thought pitching was set and we needed a bat.  It’s obvious that at present we need pitching. He won’t screw it up. 

Well, I said 5-6 so him getting 6 years is not something I would consider out if the question. No need to call me a dope. I have feelings, you know. 

[T.G.]

I thought "dope" was a good thing.

I can't keep up any more.

[Pancake Bear]

14 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Well, I said 5-6 so him getting 6 years is not something I would consider out if the question. No need to call me a dope. I have feelings, you know. 

Was not what I meant. I assumed you thought Arte would get outbid because he wouldn’t go the distance on years. My response was I doubt that happens because Arte isn’t a dope and will know he can’t get Cole for less than 7.

[T.G.]

Oh I get it... "Is a dope" is not as good as "is dope."

You kids... sheesh.

 

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I still go back to 2018 when the Angels had Ohtani and Richards at the top of the rotation for the first 50-60 games or so.  Heaney and Skaggs were also pitching well and we were like 10 games over .500.  The current offense and bullpen are actually better than that team.  Cole, 2018 Ohtani with more innings, 2018 Heaney and a solid replacement for Skaggs.  Plus now you have Canning and I really think we'l see better from Barria, Sandoval and Suarez.  It's gonna be such a dramatic difference.  

The rotation from 2019 had an era of 6.  F**CKING 6!!!!! It's hard to fathom how bad that it, but it's also hard to fathom how much of a difference 3 players can make to that.  

 

3 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

Less stress on the pen. Less pressure on the offense and defense. Makes a gigantic difference across the board, just bringing in 2-3 good-great arms (including Ohtani).

Yep, agreed on both accounts. Sean-Regan brings up a good point, which I have mentioned as well, that improving the rotation will have an impact on other facets of the team. Stats tend to analyze parts of a team but often miss, overlook, or simply cannot assess the relationship between those parts--the "glue," if you will, which has more to do with chemistry, psychology, mentality, etc. This is also where a manager who knows how to handle personalities and conflicts is very important.

I like to cite a Bill James quote about Pedro Martinez, from his 2000 edition of the Historical Abstract (I wish he'd update that book - the best bathroom reading ever). He said something to the effect that for every pitch in Pedro's arsenal, there was someone who threw it better - but Pedro was really, really good at every pitch, and moreso it was not only the sum of his parts, but how they combined, that made him better than everyone else.

[Pancake Bear]

31 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

Yep, agreed on both accounts. Sean-Regan brings up a good point, which I have mentioned as well, that improving the rotation will have an impact on other facets of the team. Stats tend to analyze parts of a team but often miss, overlook, or simply cannot assess the relationship between those parts--the "glue," if you will, which has more to do with chemistry, psychology, mentality, etc. This is also where a manager who knows how to handle personalities and conflicts is very important.

I like to cite a Bill James quote about Pedro Martinez, from his 2000 edition of the Historical Abstract (I wish he'd update that book - the best bathroom reading ever). He said something to the effect that for every pitch in Pedro's arsenal, there was someone who threw it better - but Pedro was really, really good at every pitch, and moreso it was not only the sum of his parts, but how they combined, that made him better than everyone else.

I think a lot of people miss this. That’s why people don’t get how you can go from 90 losses to potentially 90 wins with only a few moves. Not saying they will, only that it’s a reasonable possibility. The talent is there. 

[Lou]

51 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I like to cite a Bill James quote about Pedro Martinez, from his 2000 edition of the Historical Abstract

[Angel Oracle]

Seven more shutout innings by Cole today, he's about to win his 19th straight decision (barring bullpen collapse) and lower further his 1.66 ERA in that period.

[VariousCrap]

8 hours ago, Stradling said:

That seems about right, and maybe it gets up to $234 million.  Much more than I thought he would get a few months ago.  

 

It just seems like he is one of the few pitchers you pay elite money for and he is proving that in the playoffs.

[Dtwncbad]

Has there ever, ever been a free agent that is a better example of both a perfect fit for exactly what the Angels need and this much at the top of their game?

[VariousCrap]

50 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Seven more shutout innings by Cole today, he's about to win his 19th straight decision (barring bullpen collapse) and lower further his 1.66 ERA in that period.

And he did that against the best offense in baseball without even having his best stuff tonight!!!

[Pancake Bear]

11 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Has there ever, ever been a free agent that is a better example of both a perfect fit for exactly what the Angels need and this much at the top of their game?

Albert Pujols?

[Pancake Bear]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings

"Another SoCal club, the Angels, is also in desperate need of an ace, but it's questionable whether the team will want to pay up for another free agent in his 30s after the signings of Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson didn't pan out."

WTF? No wonder there's no name on this drivel. I'd be embarrassed to have written it, too.

[Lou]

2 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings

"Another SoCal club, the Angels, is also in desperate need of an ace, but it's questionable whether the team will want to pay up for another free agent in his 30s after the signings of Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson didn't pan out."

WTF? No wonder there's no name on this drivel. I'd be embarrassed to have written it, too.

He's 29

[Docwaukee]

8 minutes ago, Lou said:

He's 29

well.  for now.  but someday he'll be 40

[Lou]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

well.  for now.  but someday he'll be 40

And it would be idiotic to give $328M to a 50-yr old pitcher 

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

And it would be idiotic to give $328M to a 50-yr old pitcher 

What if he pitches like Gerrit Cole does at 29?

[Dtwncbad]

I am going to admit I am changing my own mind on contract length.  Earlier I said 7 years is a long time for a pitcher but I am viewing it differently now.

The overall dollars committed will be what lands Cole.  Once they hone in on that number, The contract length may be used to basically “finance” that dollar amount over a longer period of time.

To some degree I think that’s kind of what happened with Pujols.  They decided spent a couple hundred million on Pujols was what they wanted to do (rightly or wrongly) and then just spread it out over 10 years, trading the inefficiency of the back end of the contract for the affordability of the overall deal spread out.

The Angel commitment to Cole is really about overall dollars committed.The length may end up being just be a way to control the payroll on an annual basis.

Edited October 16, 2019 by Dtwncbad

[Second Base]

I'm beginning to believe that Gerrit Cole won't be the best way to go. He's clearly the best pitcher, but he may cost 35 million a year and not sign until late in the off-season.

If Cole costs 35 million a year, Strasburg would be 30, and Ryu may only cost 25 million a year and not cost a draft pick.

The Angels need an ace, but they also need depth. If I had to decide between Cole for 7 years, and Ryu for 4 and Hamels for 2 without the cost of a draft pick, is be tempted to pick the latter, as long as it is combined with someone along the lines of Zack Wheeler.

An Angels rotation of Ryu, Ohtani, Wheeler, Hamels, Heaney and Canning isn't half bad. Lots of upside, and a good veteran presence in Hamels.

[Docwaukee]

teams don't approach the FA market with emotion hardly at all anymore.  That's why Boras has been so pissed.  He can't go to the owner anymore and make his heartfelt pitches about franchise players and butts in the seats.  Regardless of guys getting propped up in the media or FA momentum, or what players tweet, guys are getting offers at a level more commensurate with what teams think they're going to do and not what they've done.  People were throwing around crazy stupid numbers for Harper, Machado, Trout etc. yet the deals all settled in around where you'd expect or lower.  All three of those guys were also considerably younger and if you throw out Trout because he wasn't really a FA, Machado and Harper were entering their age 26 season where Cole is entering his age 29 season.  

There is also sort of an artificial market cap for pitchers because of greater injury risk.  

I just find it very unlikely that some sort of crazy bidding war for Cole would develop when that really hasn't been the case in the market for anyone over the last couple years.  

Once the playoff buzz dies down and the awards are handed out we will see a typical analytical approach to Cole just like with everyone else.  For those reasons, I just don't see his AAV getting much above 30m and his total number of years above 7.  I would be very surprised if someone goes 8 years on him taking the contract through age 36.  

I still think he winds up at 7/217 or so. 

[Pancake Bear]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

teams don't approach the FA market with emotion hardly at all anymore.  That's why Boras has been so pissed.  He can't go to the owner anymore and make his heartfelt pitches about franchise players and butts in the seats.  Regardless of guys getting propped up in the media or FA momentum, or what players tweet, guys are getting offers at a level more commensurate with what teams think they're going to do and not what they've done.  People were throwing around crazy stupid numbers for Harper, Machado, Trout etc. yet the deals all settled in around where you'd expect or lower.  All three of those guys were also considerably younger and if you throw out Trout because he wasn't really a FA, Machado and Harper were entering their age 26 season where Cole is entering his age 29 season.  

There is also sort of an artificial market cap for pitchers because of greater injury risk.  

I just find it very unlikely that some sort of crazy bidding war for Cole would develop when that really hasn't been the case in the market for anyone over the last couple years.  

Once the playoff buzz dies down and the awards are handed out we will see a typical analytical approach to Cole just like with everyone else.  For those reasons, I just don't see his AAV getting much above 30m and his total number of years above 7.  I would be very surprised if someone goes 8 years on him taking the contract through age 36.  

I still think he winds up at 7/217 or so. 

7/224. Has to beat Price and get the all time high. 

[Troll Daddy]

On 10/5/2019 at 12:14 AM, Troll Daddy said:

Yankees will try to sign him. Tanaka their highest paid pitcher comes off the books after 2020 season. They have about $50M coming off their books now. 

My guess is 7yrs/$225M

 

Jon Heyman predicts 7/$245M

[ettin]

On 10/15/2019 at 10:35 PM, Lou said:

He's 29

 

On 10/15/2019 at 10:46 PM, Dochalo said:

well.  for now.  but someday he'll be 40

That's what you think nerd! https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/world/russia-scientists-reverse-time-scli-scn-intl/index.html