Should the Angels add a top tier bat in addition to arms?

[totdprods]

@Jeff Fletcher, a good question I guess that would help with this, or at least for me...

Do you think 2020 really is potentially a final straw season for Eppler? Does there seem to be any reason to think the Angels would part with him if he doesn't make big moves and get the team to the playoffs, or a feeling that Eppler might want to pursue other opportunities? We've seen two articles now alluding to this pressure. 

Because a big factor in my many rambles is a belief that 2020 is not a make-or-break. The next two-year period is more for that.

Certainly, there needs to be improvement at the big-league level and some encouraging signs in Eppler's MLB acquisitions, be it free agency big or small or trades, but it still seems a little pre-mature for folks to be holding him over a fire when, to me, he's been clearly building the org to a place where the farm blossoms and sustains the MLB team's success, and that wave wouldn't really impact the MLB team until 2019-2020, and likely not really contribute in a real positive way until those players have adjusted, say, 2020-2021-2022. Injuries are the reason the youth has been moved up a half-season or full-season in their expected development timeline.

Edited September 12, 2019 by totdprods

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I still think Wheeler is going to get less than Eovaldi.  like 3/42.  Maybe 3/48.  Then you could pay him 14, 16, 18

I'd also rather see them move on from JC Ramirez, Garcia and Bour if they want to save some additional money.  That's about 7m in savings from those three guys.  Restructure Simmons and you've got an additional 10m.  

It's going to be a really interesting FA market because there's a really wide variety of upper-tier arms that will likely have a pretty wide range of offers. Hamels is at a point where he's probably year-to-year. Bumgarner is amazingly only one year older than Cole, yet seems like he's already having his career sunset, and draws some extra value simply due to his playoff performance. Wheeler has the right age, the right stuff, not the results. Odorizzi isn't far behind. Ryu has been a beast with interesting peripherals and has age working against him. Strasburg looms. Keuchel was supposed to get big bucks but didn't because of the QO. Now he won't have that and he's doing typical Keuchel production.

And there are many arms on the trade market too, with a lot of guys in their final year in 2020. Archer, Bauer, Minor, Ray, Stroman, plus Syndergaard and Boyd will be shopped.

[Jeff Fletcher]

24 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'd also rather see them move on from JC Ramirez, Garcia and Bour if they want to save some additional money.  That's about 7m in savings from those three guys.  Restructure Simmons and you've got an additional 10m.  

I had already assumed those three would be gone to get to the $37M.

Trout, Pujols, Upton, Simmons, Cozart, Calhoun buyout: About $115M

Arbitration for Heaney, La Stella, Goodwin, Robles, Bedrosian, Smith, Noe Ramirez (no Tropeano, Garcia, Bour): $16-19M? (Even if you want to get rid of Smith or Noe, that only saves a couple mil)

0-3s: $7-9M

That makes about $140Mish. Their payroll is usually around $175M. I gave them credit for $37M thinking they'd either expand the payroll a little or trim somewhere else.

[Angel Oracle]

What are the odds that Arte would expand the payroll and/or exceed the tax threshold for say two years max?   By how much?

 

[DCAngelsFan]

43 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

To me Donaldson seems like one of those guys you grab if he's still available in Feb after you've pretty much got your team set and he's overestimated his market.  Or as like the 4th or 5th option if a bunch of other stuff doesn't work out.  

I could see this happening - but if we've still got money to spend on him in February, something else has probably gone terribly wrong.  

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

I could see this happening - but if we've still got money to spend on him in February, something else has probably gone terribly wrong.  

maybe.  Or Eppler makes a late off season trade that includes one or a couple of Thaiss, Rengifo, La Stella or Fletcher for a guy that's in arb or pre-arb and then we went after Rondon but missed out.  

I think he's on the depth chart of targets but some less likely things have to happen for him to become an Angel.  

My guess is that Atlanta brings him back and early in the off season.  

[Docwaukee]

21 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

What are the odds that Arte would expand the payroll and/or exceed the tax threshold for say two years max?   By how much?

 

the CBT threshold for 2020 is 208m.  The CBT number is pretty close to actual payroll minus the 10-15 in benefits that they add.  Which means he's have to take payroll to near 195m unless their is significant back loading.  

I could see him going up to 180-185 but my guess is that would be about the max.  And if they did, it would be to add that additional player on a 1-2 year deal who they think could have an impact for 1-2 seasons.  But no way is he gonna make multiple long term commitment beyond maybe 2 guys.   So grabbing two pitchers on deals of 3+ years means there's no chance at Rondon or Grandal.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

What are the odds that Arte would expand the payroll and/or exceed the tax threshold for say two years max?   By how much?

 

That's a good question for Arte. I will certainly ask him when he makes himself available.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I had already assumed those three would be gone to get to the $37M.

Trout, Pujols, Upton, Simmons, Cozart, Calhoun buyout: About $115M

Arbitration for Heaney, La Stella, Goodwin, Robles, Bedrosian, Smith, Noe Ramirez (no Tropeano, Garcia, Bour): $16-19M? (Even if you want to get rid of Smith or Noe, that only saves a couple mil)

0-3s: $7-9M

That makes about $140Mish. Their payroll is usually around $175M. I gave them credit for $37M thinking they'd either expand the payroll a little or trim somewhere else.

gotcha.  

[ettin]

On 9/7/2019 at 10:14 AM, Dochalo said:

There is a way to increase your money available to spend this next off season and it's sort of the elephant in the room 

buy out the remainder of Pujols contract and spread out the cash over several years.  

He's got about 60m left over the next two years.  If you only pay him 5m each of the next two seasons and then the rest over the next 8 or 10 then you've got an additional 25m to spend in actual payroll in each of the next two seasons.  

Then you could do the following

Cole 6/168 (that's what I think he ends up getting) for an aav of 28m.  Pay him 25m in 2020
Wheeler 3/36.  10m in 2020
Rendon  5/125.  20m in 2020

That's 55m in additional payroll for 2020.  

I will admit my numbers have been rosy in the past too but I think Cole crests $200M and Rendon could get close to that number as well.

[Angel Oracle]

Concur re: Rendon

Arenado got 8 years/$260 million.   Rendon isn't much below him.  If Machado gets $300 million as well, you can imagine what Rendon could command.

 

[Tank]

On 9/10/2019 at 6:19 PM, Dochalo said:

after a lot of thought and detailed analysis, I think we need better players for next year than we had this year.  

where you going with this, doc?

[Dollar Bill]

Plans can change, of course, but this is Eppler's plan as of now ...

 

Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols would share the designated hitter role, Andrelton Simmons would play shortstop, and the Angels would figure out the rest of the infield among Pujols, Cozart, Tommy La Stella, David Fletcher, and youngsters Luis Rengifo, Matt Thaiss and Jared Walsh.

“We feel like the answers can come from within there,” Eppler said.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/story/2019-09-07/angels-general-manager-billy-eppler-job-jeopardy-mike-trout

 

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Dollar Bill said:

Plans can change, of course, but this is Eppler's plan as of now ...

 

Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols would share the designated hitter role, Andrelton Simmons would play shortstop, and the Angels would figure out the rest of the infield among Pujols, Cozart, Tommy La Stella, David Fletcher, and youngsters Luis Rengifo, Matt Thaiss and Jared Walsh.

“We feel like the answers can come from within there,” Eppler said.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/story/2019-09-07/angels-general-manager-billy-eppler-job-jeopardy-mike-trout

 

I can pretty much guarantee that Zack Cozart has no future with the Angels.

Best case scenario at this point is he shows something in ST and we ship him off while paying most of his salary.

[totdprods]

4 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

I can pretty much guarantee that Zack Cozart has no future with the Angels.

Best case scenario at this point is he shows something in ST and we ship him off while paying most of his salary.

If he shows anything they should hold onto him and try to recoup any value they can off of him. If he’s awful again, they’ll just cut him mid-season as they did with Allen, Lincecum, Harvey, Valbuena, Espinosa...and they’ll be able to pull the plug much quicker given they’ll have actual AAA talent ready to replace.

Honestly, I hope Cozart shows up and hits well in ST. Maybe the shoulder issues have really affected him. I never ever thought he would replicate his crazy 2017, but I thought he’d be good for a .750, maybe .800 OPS season or two. Perhaps if he’s feeling better he can work at some more positions - 1B? Corner outfield? - and become a sort of Ben Zobrist-type, which would offer the Angels some value by giving them the ability to have a much more flexible bench, especially with Fletcher also being so versatile. Allows them to carry more pitching here and there. 

And if Cozart does somehow make the Opening Day squad, and Rengifo or Thaiss start the year in AAA, that’s not the worst outcome. Might mean we don’t see 2020’s Wilfredo Tovar equivalent and instead bring up Rengifo when need arises. That’s a plus right there.

Edited September 13, 2019 by totdprods

[Docwaukee]

I'm at the point where I'd rather see them just cut their losses with Cozart.  Even if he looks great this spring and we read 10 articles about how he's in the BSOHL or how he's got this new fancy swing.  I don't trust that it will translate to actual games.  His career OPS+ is 88 even factoring in that career season.  He's just not very good.  He got most of his value from being a good defensive SS.  not his bat.  Don't waste the at bats on him again.  

[Docwaukee]

13 hours ago, Dollar Bill said:

Plans can change, of course, but this is Eppler's plan as of now ...

 

Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols would share the designated hitter role, Andrelton Simmons would play shortstop, and the Angels would figure out the rest of the infield among Pujols, Cozart, Tommy La Stella, David Fletcher, and youngsters Luis Rengifo, Matt Thaiss and Jared Walsh.

“We feel like the answers can come from within there,” Eppler said.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/story/2019-09-07/angels-general-manager-billy-eppler-job-jeopardy-mike-trout

 

that's GM speak for 'not a chance in hell we're adding a bat so stop asking me'.  

[Vlad27Trout27]

I can also see us trying to modified the free agent contracts as well.

4yr 64 mil to Wheeler could be spend as followed:  12,16,18,18 or 12,14, 19,19

Same with Colle

20,25, 25, 30..... 

[tdawg87]

I have an idea, let's get Cole and give him $1 million for the first year. Then we can get Wheeler AND Rendon.

I'm a genius