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Should the Angels add a top tier bat in addition to arms?


Chuck

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Just now, Inside Pitch said:

Not certain what the definition of fine is but, his last 30 games his OPS is sitting at .815, and that comes with a Babip about 60 points below his usual mark...   So, he's doing the usual streaky BS and would likely end up with his usual season if he had not missed half the year.

Yea, I am not nearly as worried about Upton as some of our regulars here are.  Sure his performance early this year was frustrating as was his performance with RISP last year.  

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On 9/6/2019 at 11:38 AM, Chuckster70 said:

Do you think the Angels offense as it stands is good enough to compete even with a loaded rotation next season?

I think we're still one guy away on offense to becoming a legit threat in 2020 and beyond. 

I think Fletcher and La Stella should platoon at 2B and we go after a Donaldson or Rendon for 3B.

While I think Justin Upton will be better than he's shown this season, who besides Mike Trout can we really count on in the lineup?

If you look at the top tier teams in baseball they all have 4-6 guys in their lineup who mash, along with a good starting pitching staff. So really, adding Cole and another arm may not be good enough. 

Astros: Springer, Brantley, Bregman, Alvarez, Altuve, Gurriel. 

Dodgers: Muncy, Bellinger, Turner, Seager, Pederson

Yankees: Judge, Torres, LeMahieu, Sanchez, Urshela, Voit, Gregorius

Braves: Freeman, Acuna, Donaldson, Albies

Twins: Cruz, Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Rosario, Garver

Cubs: Castellanos, Baez, Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Schwarber

The Angels have Trout, but Ohtani will be getting less at bats due to pitching, is La Stella a one year wonder or is it because of the juiced baseballs? Is Upton truly regressing? and will Pujols be the guy in 2019 or 2017 & 2018 in his year 40 season? There are big question marks next season as far as the type of production noted above compared to their peers on championship caliber clubs next season. 

I think a 3B like Donaldson or Rendon and a C like Grandal would need to be added to seriously compete against the top tier teams in 2020 and beyond. 

Thoughts?

I agree, have always suggested the same, and nothing has changed.
The issue i see is where?  There are really only 2 spots, C and maybe 3B.   Basically your looking at either Grandal or Rendon if you want true impact.  3B would allow us to potentially trade some guys to help on the bullpen side perhaps but isnt exactly a need right now.
Can we afford that after adding presumably 2 top pitchers is the real question.
Donaldson kinda scares me, he found lightning in a bottle this year, can he do it again?  i dont know but someone is going to pay to find out, im not sure i want to get that one wrong.

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25 minutes ago, floplag said:

Donaldson kinda scares me, he found lightning in a bottle this year, can he do it again? 

He’s been a reliable .900+ OPS guy each of his last five years, except for last year when he was injured most of the year. And he still posted a .920 OPS once he came back from injury. So, I don’t see how this year could be lightning in a bottle.

I think he could be Beltre 2.0 and gives you something similar to Rendon with likely a lesser AAV and definitely fewer years. 

Edited by totdprods
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15 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Would signing Donaldson to a 2 year deal for say $30-35 million total still allow them to sign Cole plus a solid innings eater for the rotation?

Would Arte finally be ready to exceed budget/tax threshold for a couple of years tops?  

I fumbled around with some math once and think Cole around $30m AAV backloaded, Donaldson around $20m AAV backloaded on a 2-3 year deal, and no other significant FAs (<$5m, maybe Lyles or Bailey?) plus a few non-tenders (Garcia, Trop, Smith, both Ramirezes) and perhaps one or two trades of arb guys like Goodwin, La Stella, Robles, or Bedrosian to restock some cheap depth could maybe work. Arte may still need to go a couple mil over but not much.

I like the idea a lot. Cole’s a big arm, Donaldson is a big bat. You leave a lot of room in the rotation for young guns to grow, and Donaldson’s presence makes it easier to deal any of our current IFs for cheap pitching help, Simmons included, due to his bat and defense and ability to move to 1B after Bert retires if he’s here for three.

Should Adell come up and click the Angels offense is stupid good, even if Stassi stalls behind the plate. Probably good enough to really compete, even if we rely on the kids heavily for the rotation and they stay healthy and improve a bit. 
Lineup: La Stella 2B, Trout CF, Donaldson 3B, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Pujols 1B, Simmons SS, Goodwin/Adell RF, Stassi C
Bench: Bemboom C, Thaiss CIF, Fletcher UT IF, Cozart UT IF, last spot rotating with Rengifo, Ward, Walsh, Rojas, Hermosillo, until Adell is ready. 
Rotation: Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Lyles/Bailey/Moore/Smyly, Sandoval/Barria/Pena/Suarez/Peters

Edited by totdprods
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17 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He’s been a reliable .900+ OPS guy each of his last five years, except for last year when he was injured most of the year. And he still posted a .920 OPS once he came back from injury. So, I don’t see how this year could be lightning in a bottle.

I think he could be Beltre 2.0 and gives you something similar to Rendon with likely a lesser AAV and definitely fewer years. 

You could be right, but if your not where does that leave us?  Is it worth the difference in money will be the question.

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16 minutes ago, floplag said:

You could be right, but if your not where does that leave us?  Is it worth the difference in money will be the question.

Every FA is a gamble...

  • a) a bad scenario - he regresses to an average player, it's mitigated a bit by Cozart coming off books at end of year. Donaldson becomes the 'new' Cozart, though hopefully not nearly as bad. Even a .750 OPS corner if bench bat would be an okay result, though overpaid. 
  • b) He really flops,  is stuck around .650-.700, then you probably have to let Simmons walk as well, which might happen anyways, just to free up enough money to throw it back into rotation helpB)
  • c) Absolute worst-case scenario, he totally crumbles, is washed up, a Cozartian disaster, and it's a three year deal...you're at least getting Cozart and Simmons off books after '20 (like $28m) and Bert off books after '21 ($30m) so you're in rough shape, but at least some relief elsewhere.


Beltre was a 123 OPS+ guy age 29-33, 6 WAR annually. 
Donaldson is 144 OPS+ between age 29-33, 6 WAR annually, even with his lost year. 

Beltre went on to post a 130 OPS+ his next four seasons, all mostly healthy, averaging 6 WAR. And he still had two more injury-shortened, productive seasons following that. 
Obviously, there's no reason to think Donaldson is going to match Beltre here on out - Beltre did have some HGH help due to his accident - but we aren't signing Donaldson for a 5-6 yr deal. I'd cap out at 2-3. 

I love what Donaldson does for the rest of the roster construction. He handcuffs our FA SP pitching - we're limited to maybe one top arm or two middling arms - but the offense would be extremely scary, and we should have some faith in our young arms. I get that it's been a harrowing four years and currently, the ERA of Barria, Suarez, Sandoval, and Canning is scary, but these guys are the youngest SPs in baseball and have been some of our best prospects. A couple of them should become legit MLB SPs, and it could happen as soon as 2020. It might already be happening for Canning and Sandoval. Ohtani is coming back too. Peters looks like he might be ascending into at least a decent #5 MLB SP. He had prospect hype once and is still young. And if it doesn't happen - we count on the youngsters and they don't progress like we hope - well, then we turn to the 2020 FA SP class, which includes Ray, Stroman, Bauer, Minor, Paxton, DeSclafani, Walker, possibly Strasburg, and we'll have Cozart/Simmons coming off the books to open up money. We also have to add Chris Rodriguez, Hector Yan, Joso Soriano, and Jeremy Beasley to the 40-man that offseason to protect them, so we also will be adding more arms internally to that pool as well.

Edited by totdprods
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15 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Every FA is a gamble...

  • a) a bad scenario - he regresses to an average player, it's mitigated a bit by Cozart coming off books at end of year. Donaldson becomes the 'new' Cozart, though hopefully not nearly as bad. Even a .750 OPS corner if bench bat would be an okay result, though overpaid. 
  • b) He really flops,  is stuck around .650-.700, then you probably have to let Simmons walk as well, which might happen anyways, just to free up enough money to throw it back into rotation helpB)
  • c) Absolute worst-case scenario, he totally crumbles, is washed up, a Cozartian disaster, and it's a three year deal...you're at least getting Cozart and Simmons off books after '20 (like $28m) and Bert off books after '21 ($30m) so you're in rough shape, but at least some relief elsewhere.


Beltre was a 123 OPS+ guy age 29-33, 6 WAR annually. 
Donaldson is 144 OPS+ between age 29-33, 6 WAR annually, even with his lost year. 

Beltre went on to post a 130 OPS+ his next four seasons, all mostly healthy, averaging 6 WAR. And he still had two more injury-shortened, productive seasons following that. 
Obviously, there's no reason to think Donaldson is going to match Beltre here on out - Beltre did have some HGH help due to his accident - but we aren't signing Donaldson for a 5-6 yr deal. I'd cap out at 2-3. 

I love what Donaldson does for the rest of the roster construction. He handcuffs our FA SP pitching - we're limited to maybe one top arm or two middling arms - but the offense would be extremely scary, and we should have some faith in our young arms. I get that it's been a harrowing four years and currently, the ERA of Barria, Suarez, Sandoval, and Canning is scary, but these guys are the youngest SPs in baseball and have been some of our best prospects. A couple of them should become legit MLB SPs, and it could happen as soon as 2020. It might already be happening for Canning and Sandoval. Ohtani is coming back too. Peters looks like he might be ascending into at least a decent #5 MLB SP. He had prospect hype once and is still young. And if it doesn't happen - we count on the youngsters and they don't progress like we hope - well, then we turn to the 2020 FA SP class, which includes Ray, Stroman, Bauer, Minor, Paxton, DeSclafani, Walker, possibly Strasburg, and we'll have Cozart/Simmons coming off the books to open up money. We also have to add Chris Rodriguez, Hector Yan, Joso Soriano, and Jeremy Beasley to the 40-man that offseason to protect them, so we also will be adding more arms internally to that pool as well.

I have faith in the kids, my concern is that they do not look ML ready yet.  From what i see they need at least another year.  Most cant go 5 innings and havent extended themselves out to being able to put in the innings we need them to do. 
Im certain they will be good, im just not certain its next season. 

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22 minutes ago, floplag said:

I have faith in the kids, my concern is that they do not look ML ready yet.  From what i see they need at least another year.  Most cant go 5 innings and havent extended themselves out to being able to put in the innings we need them to do. 
Im certain they will be good, im just not certain its next season. 

Well remember, they're not supposed to be MLB-ready yet. The rotation was supposed to be Skaggs, Heaney, Harvey, Cahill, Pena, Stratton. Literally none of them were supposed to be in the rotation had everyone stayed healthy and at least MLB average. Even Barria, the most tested young gun SP, was bumped to AAA to start the year. Yet here we are! Injuries moved their timeline up. Canning and Sandoval have responded well. Peters too. Barria has been better. Suarez has shown some improvement last 2-3 games. Eppler probably expected these guys to maybe, at most, debut in '20 with a spot start or three.

That's why I continue to look at the big picture - I'm not going to let the injury PTSD or 2019 disaster knee-jerk me into thinking we need to fix everything this winter, or have Billy's head on a platter if we don't make the playoffs next year. I see this offseason, next season, and next offseason as his last chance - with changes being made in '21 if we stumble out of the gate.

  • 2020: Add a top arm, add a top bat, count on the kids again - they are the future, if they can't produce in 2020, then it's time for some serious re-assessment re: Eppler and the plan.
    • Sign one of Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, or Cole Hamels in that order.
    • Sign Donaldson, say, 3/$60m.
      • Donaldson's presence makes it much easier to flip Ward, Thaiss, Walsh, or Rojas for an equivalent AAAA SP or prospect, in Thaiss' case. Guys like Erik Swanson, Foster Griffin, Nick Neidert, Ryan Hartman, Brandon Bailey. Sort of like the Dillon Peters trade. He gives you Calhoun's glove and bat, although at 3B, so if Adell is slow to stick, we aren't still losing a ton of production.
    • Sign the cheapest, most inning-eateriest, durable #5 you can find. Jordan Lyles, Homer Bailey, Ivan Nova, or a flyer on Smyly or Moore, someone for like 1/$3.5m.
    • If necessary, trade a Robles/Bedrosian/La Stella to save some arb. mil, and to bring back cheap (even if it means unproven) RP/C/SP talent.
      • To save further money, non-tender JC Ramirez, Tropeano, Garcia, maybe Smith, maybe Noe, maybe Pena.
    • Welcome Jo Adell, Jahmai Jones, maybe Jose Rojas, one or two of Adrian De Horta, Jeremy Rhoades, and Oliver Ortega to the 40-man.
    • GOAL: Win 85+ games, maybe get that WC spot, let Ohtani/Cole pitch us into the ALDS, and hope the offense is awake.
       
  • 2021: The big questions really will be, did the pitching work? 
    • If not, use the freed up Cozart money - and maybe Simba money if things were REAL bad - and sign one of Ray, Stroman, Paxton, Minor, Tanaka, etc.
    • If it did, great! Now the Angels can still sign another SP as mentioned above, or make the kind of FA signings teams usually do as 'final touches' before a contending season, such as...
      • they can drop that coin on one of the three good catchers hitting FA - Mike Zunino, JT Realmuto, or James McCann
      • Some good RP hitting the market - Ken Giles, Alex Colome, Trevor May, Shane Greene, Liam Hendriks, Keone Kela, Blake Treinen, and Kirby Yates
    • Also, welcome Brandon Marsh, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Hector Yan, Isaac Mattson, Jeremy Beasley, maybe Livan Soto or Kevin Maitan to the 40-man.
    • GOAL: Win 95+ games, knock Houston out of first, should have a complete roster now - good rotation, good offense, good bench, good bullpen, good catcher, great AAA/minor-league depth.
    • If we didn't meet our goal in 2020, and the Angels stumble again in 2021, it's a great year to cut ties with Eppler/Ausmus. Payroll clears up again with Bert, there's more young talent on the 40-man to audition, and a good core and farm to work with.
       
  • 2022Bye-Bye Bertie
    • Pujols comes off the books - as well as Heaney, Bedrosian, and Robles - and Upton has one year left. A lot of salary clears up, which is good because...
    • Freeman, Rizzo, Baez, Sano, possibly Arenado, Salvador Perez, Correa, Seager, Story, Conforto, Syndergaard, Kershaw, Kluber, Scherzer, Greinke, Verlander, Foltynewicz, Greinke, Chapman, Hand, Jansen, Bradley, and Lindor all hit FA. 
      • If the Angels are falling short anywhere, there's a ton of star FAs set to hit FA. 
    • GOAL: Houston should be starting to sweat with a lot of talent hitting free agency. Angels should be expected to win 95-100+ even before any possible major FA additions
    • Welcome Kyle Bradish, Aaron Hernandez, Robinson Pina, Stiward Aquino, D'Shawn Knowles, Trent Deveaux to the 40-man roster. 
      • Again, the minor league depth should be stacked, so trades can also be in play. 


Fans need to get past this single-season mindset. We weren't built to compete year-to-year yet. We're just now stepping through the threshold of what Billy has been creating and building to. Add a big bat, add a big arm, play the kids in 2020. Lots of flexibility to re-assess and shake things up - either in the FO, the rotation, or the line-up - in subsequent years, based on where things need to change. And we'll continue to have a strong farm through it all.

Edited by totdprods
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If the Angels are going to sign a big bat that is not at C, then they need to sign Anthony Rendon, not Donaldson.

Edited to add:  That said, I'd rather the Angels get Grandal for C and let Fletcher and LaStella hand 2B/3B.  The rest of the money needs to go to pitching.

Edited by VariousCrap
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39 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I just want to point out that Josh Donaldson is going to be 34 in December. 

Edit: Looked it up. There are 11 guys in the majors who this year who had 450 PAs in their age 34 or older season. 

His age works for and against him. Sure, he’s old and a risk to start declining. But he’s also old and that limits him to asking an arm and a leg for money and years. 

Nelson Cruz has been just fine after age 34. So has Encarnacion. Cano? Mostly bad, but has had some moments. Carlos Santana is having his best year at 33, by a huge margin. Braun has been a tick above-average, Turner is still hitting. Even Pujols was acceptable 34-36.

It’s a total risk at that age, but at least it isn’t 5, 6, or 7 years for Rendon, who might be safer, but a lot more commitment. 

If Donaldson didn’t have AL experience, had wild fluctuation in productivity the las few years, had poor defense, or was expected to be the top guy, I’d balk, but, none of that applies. He’d have Trout, sometimes Ohtani, possibly Upton, occasionally Pujols, and possibly La Stella or Adell right up there with him in terms of carrying the offense. He still can field. 

Put another way...if we have $20m (somehow, I mentioned it’s unlikely) to spend after signing a top arm, I think I’d feel just as comfortable committing it to Donaldson and reinforcing the offense as I would committing it to second-tier pitching like Odorizzi, Wood, Gibson, Pineda, Porcello, Anderson, etc., even with our rotation concerns. I’m more comfortable than most with one big FA SP, Ohtani, the kids, and maybe a shrewd depth move to solve those woes though. I like keeping some rotation options open for next offseason with a better mid-tier class. After committing $20m to Cahill/Harvey this year, guys who should’ve been decent, I’m a little gunshy about those mid-range FA arms.

I also am leery about going all one way or another - I’ve been an Angel fan too long. I feel like if we do a ton to improve the pitching, it’ll be great next year...and the offense will somehow crumble. So, I’d rather balance the addition on both sides of the ball and continue to heighten expectations of both our young pitchers and young hitters to continue developing, and really, just good health for all.

Edited by totdprods
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25 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I just want to point out that Josh Donaldson is going to be 34 in December. 

Edit: Looked it up. There are 11 guys in the majors who this year who had 450 PAs in their age 34 or older season. 

 

Age is the main reason I'd prefer Rendon to Donaldson.  Still, I think the majority of money the Angels choose to spend this off-season needs to be on pitching.

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4 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

Age is the main reason I'd prefer Rendon to Donaldson.  Still, I think the majority of money the Angels choose to spend this off-season needs to be on pitching.

If we had a lot more money to work with I’d prefer Rendon to Donaldson no doubt, but I don’t think happens unless we strike out on the best top FA arms and maybe deal Simmons. Neither of those would be good outcomes. 

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Just now, Angel Oracle said:

One thing to remember though is that Donaldson only has a total of 4,555 MLB PAs so far.   He's only been up here for good since the second half of 2012.   He might have 2-3 good years remaining? 

Other late bloomers like Nelson Cruz, Jose Bautista, and Justin Turner have played well as they aged too. 

3/$60m would be my max, anything more in years or dollars and I’m definitely out, but I like the gamble. We have enough coming off the books in subsequent years to adjust - but we gotta count on the kids more too. But, to me, that’s what we’ve been building for - these kids. So, let’s keep testing them, hopefully behind Cole and Donaldson, and we can re-configure next offseason when Cozart and Simmons come off and Pujols has a year left.

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Ausmus has done such a terrible job with this pitching staff, I don't know if it can be fixed in one off-season.

The worst pitching season in Angels history came in 1996, when they gave up 943 runs under Marcel Lachemann / McNamara / and Joe Maddon. They averaged 5.857 runs allowed. In 1994, they allowed 660 runs in just 115 games, for an almost as bad 5.739 runs per game, also under Lachemann and Buck Rodgers.

The third worst season was Scioscia's first, at 5.364 runs per game in 2000, when they surprisingly went 82-80. They allowed 869 runs. The fourth worst season was Terry Collins' last at 826 runs allowed, 5.099 in 1999.

Those are the only 4 seasons in club history they've allowed over 5 runs per game. Except of course, this one. The current team might edge out 2000 as they currently have allowed 770 runs in just 145 games for a 5.310 runs allowed per game. They could easily be third worst pitching season in Angels history.

Last year, in a season where they lost 7 starters to injury, They allowed just 722 runs in 162 games, for a 4.457 runs per game average. That means Ausmus and White, with some of the same guys, and some new ones, have been nearly a run worse than Scioscia's injury decimated 2018 team. This is not just the juiced ball.

They need to cut the runs allowed by nearly 200 in 2020.

All the investment should go to pitching.

I might bring back Calhoun. They need a catcher. Other than that, it's all pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

 

 

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Among arms unlikely to be back, Trevor Cahill leads the way with 69 runs allowed in almost 95 innings (6.56 runs per 9 innings). Matt Harvey allowed 48 runs in just under 60 innings, (7.24 runs per 9 innings). Subtracting those two and replacing with Gerritt Cole is certainly going to help, as he would've allowed less than half the runs those two did if he were here this year, and replicating his Houston numbers.

Luis Garcia, started the season horribly, but has had a hot stretch lately and lowered his ERA to 4.31 and (31 runs in 56.1 IP). Still, he's not likely back.

I don't see Tropeano (15 runs in 13.2 IP) staying healthy and returning. Chris Stratton (28 runs in 29.1 IP) was horrible too. Cody Allen was bad (16 runs in 23 IP)

That's a total of 207 runs in 276.2 IP. A runs per game of 6.73. Add Taylor Cole, Jaime Barria, and Jake Jewell ....who all have a possibility of returning, at Cole's 34 runs in 45.1 IP,  Barria's 50 runs in 70.1 IP, Jewell's 15 runs in 19.2 IP...the number increased to 306 runs in 412 IP. That's 6.68 Runs Per 9 IP.

The rest of the team, including Suarez at 6.45 ERA (52 runs in 68.1 IP), Anderson's 27 runs in 41.1 IP... ends up being significantly lower. Those two are likely to be back, but should improve their performances, I'd expect.

878.2 IP and 464 runs allowed, which is a 4.75 runs per game.

 

Addition by subtraction will help, but adding in Cole, Ohtani, and maybe someone like Syndergaard, would go a long way to dropping that 4.75 Runs per 9 IP to low 4's...which would put them in the playoffs.

 

 

 

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I'd be happy with another bat, but what we really need from the offense is some consistency, some ability to hit with runners on base and in scoring position, some hit-and-run, steals, etc. 

A's scored 7 runs in the first inning last night with singles before adding on with home runs later. How many times have we seen the Angels load the bases this year and come up with nothing? Terribly frustrating, this offense. The A's have hitters all through their lineup who contribute and keep rallies going. 

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Matt Thaiss did struggle so far in his MLB PA's, albeit clubbing 6 HRs in 128 PAs as part of a .659 OPS.

However, he wouldn't be the first to struggle in his first taste of MLB pitching or suddenly hit a lot of HRs after a so-so MILB career.

Jim Edmonds never hit over 14 HRs in a MILB season (spending 5.5 seasons in the minors), and struggled in his first taste of MLB pitching.

Not comparing Thaiss to Edmonds, just saying that it's not etched in stone that Thaiss can't hit MLB pitching, yet.

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Adding this little tidbit on to my idea of bringing in Donaldson...

He hasn't slowed down as the season has continued either - slashing .277/.420/.623/1.043 in the second half. 

  • First half: 21 doubles, 18 HR, 49 BB, 92 K in 363 PA - .296 BAbip
  • 2nd half: 9 doubles, 19 HR, 45 BB, 54 K in 238 PA - .288 BAbip

Pretty dramatic increase in HR and decrease in strikeouts in the second half. 

Closing in on 40 HR and 100 BB to go with 30 doubles and 88 RBI.

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