Innings Pitched

[Angel Oracle]

12 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

With Pujols, Upton, Trout, Simmons and Cozart adding up to $115M in 2020 it’s going to be extremely difficult to sign Cole for $20M -$24M per and still field a team. 

Cozart's and Calhoun's contracts are done after 2020, Pujols' contract is done after 2021, and Upton's contract is done after 2022.

I have asked this question before.   If Arte goes over his budget and the tax threshold for just 2 years TOPS in re-signing Simba, signing Cole, and trading for an established mid-rotation arm (with the knowledge that the franchise should be strong enough going forward to not need to hit the big FA market again until likely the latter 2020s), what is the worst thing that happens? 

After 4 years of rebuilding the farm (thanks a lot Dipoto), and with contracts coming off the books over the next two plus seasons, the Halos are in their best position in quite a while to sign an ace FA pitcher.

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

With Pujols, Upton, Trout, Simmons and Cozart adding up to $115M in 2020 it’s going to be extremely difficult to sign Cole for $20M -$24M per and still field a team. 

I don’t know about that. Where else do you think they’d need to spend more than $4-5M? And they are going to have a lot of spots occupied by guys making less than $1M.

The reason that they’ve waited to go big on free agents is that you can’t do it until you have a lot of homegrown (cheap) players to fill around them. Last year they needed 2 starters so they spent $20M on Cahill/Harvey. If they have more young guys who are ready, and they only need one FA, that’s $20M for Cole. 

Tragically, losing Skaggs alters the equation, but they are gaining Ohtani for $700K or so. Heaney will make $4-5M. Every other guy on the SP depth chart will make less than $2M, and most less than $1M.

Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Barría, Suarez, Peña is a good start. 

You don’t need 5 studs to be a good team. If you have 3 who are better than average and stay healthy, and then can rotate around and get 5 innings and 2-3 runs from the other spots, you’ll be good. 

[Stradling]

Here is another way to say what Claude said, but opposite.  With Ohtani, Fletcher, Rengifo, Thiass, Smith, Cam, Buttrey, Noe, Robles, Heaney, Canning, Suarez, Barria and Adell all making little to no money, it should be pretty easy to sign a guy like Cole.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

Also, if they’re gonna sign Cole to a 5-year deal, they can backload it to where he gets a lot more money after Pujols, Cozart are off the books. 

And Simmons may be off too. Maybe Rengifo is the SS by then. 

[floplag]

29 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

So to be clear you are saying the Angels should not make a bad trade and only try to make a good trade.

Interesting angle.

Actually thats about as unclear as you could have possibly been.  
There is no angle, you always try to make a good trade, or at least a balanced fair trade.  What i'm saying is that if we trade away some of our better chips, its cant be for a question mark.  If its a question mark it should not be for the better guys. 
Hopefully that helps. 

[Stradling]

@Jeff Fletcher it used to be if a guy was traded in the first year of a multi year free agent contract he could opt out of his contract at the end of that season.  Is that still the case?  

[Angel Oracle]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Also, if they’re gonna sign Cole to a 5-year deal, they can backload it to where he gets a lot more money after Pujols, Cozart are off the books. 

And Simmons may be off too. Maybe Rengifo is the SS by then. 

If they wanted to keep Simba, they could even do a little backloading of his new deal, using part of the money from Upton's contract coming off the books after 2022.

Then the only big money guy for a while that they will need to work to keep from leaving will be Ohtani after 2023. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

@Jeff Fletcher it used to be if a guy was traded in the first year of a multi year free agent contract he could opt out of his contract at the end of that season.  Is that still the case?  

No. The player has a right to demand a trade. But that never happens because I think he also gives something up (not sure what) if he does that. 

[Dtwncbad]

19 minutes ago, floplag said:

Actually thats about as unclear as you could have possibly been.  
There is no angle, you always try to make a good trade, or at least a balanced fair trade.  What i'm saying is that if we trade away some of our better chips, its cant be for a question mark.  If its a question mark it should not be for the better guys. 
Hopefully that helps. 

That helps a lot.  Before this exchange I didn’t really worry about making bad trades.

[Dtwncbad]

34 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Archer the past 3 1/2 years has NOT been a middle of the rotation guy, though.   ERA around 4.30 and WHIP around 1.30 since 2016, and since 2018 has only averaged about 5.4 innings/start.   That's more like #4/#5, especially when factoring in 2018/2019 stats. 

I can’t argue with what you are saying.  If I listed that same five with Archer at the end instead of the middle I am still not complaining.

The reality is today’s Angel rotation makes me interested in having Archer.  He is better than most of the bodies the Angels run out there today.

If Archer was the #5 next year, it would probably mean the Angels no longer have rotation problems.

I like the sound of that.

[totdprods]

The way I see it, this is the 2020 Angels Pitching Staff:

• MLB Rotation: 
  • #1 Free Agent, #2 Heaney, #3 Trade, #4 Ohtani - these guys are locked in as everyday, traditional starters, with the exception of Ohtani, who stays on a once-a-week schedule
    • #5 rotating from Groups A/B, #6 from Groups A/B
       
• MLB High-Lev Bullpen:
  • #1 Robles, #2 Bedrosian - these guys are out of options, and will be locked into the pen
    • #3 Buttrey, #4 Anderson, #5 Middleton - these guys all have options, and I expect all three to be in the pen all year, but one might occasionally be optioned if they're being overused or there's a need for fresh arms
       
• GROUP A: AAA Rotation
  • SP prospects who might have inning limits, health concerns, limited upside (future #4th-5th SP at best), or little-to-no MLB experience 
  • Griffin Canning, Jaime Barria, Jose Suarez, Patrick Sandoval, Dillon Peters, Nick Tropeano, Luis Madero - all of these guys have options and can be shuttled back and forth from SLC/Anaheim/bullpen as needed
  • Eventually, one or two of these guys (Canning) will establish themselves as a legit MLB starter and ascend into that first tier with Heaney, Ohtani, and the two acquisitions, cutting us down to only rotating through the #6 slot*
    • *Health permitting.
       
• GROUP B:  MLB Bulk Bullpen 
  • all of these guys are stretched out to throw multiple innings/start games. Only one has options, so they're all stuck in the pen or off the team.
  • Adalberto Mejia, Felix Pena, J.C. Ramirez, Noe Ramirez, and Taylor Cole (the only arm with options)
  • These guys are sort of on the bubble - they're the first ones to be pushed off roster should better options emerge due to their out-of-options status*
    • NOTE: Cole has options, keeping him safe, and Pena arguably is as close as Canning in ascending to a permanent rotation slot.
    • They will eventually be replaced by failed SPs from Group A or new players from Group C.
       
• GROUP C : AA Rotation or AAA Bulk Bullpen 
  • Jeremy Beasley, Andrew Wantz, Jesus Castillo, Kyle Bradish, Adrian De Horta**, Oliver Ortega** - these guys will in 2020-2021 graduate up to Group A, fill displaced/DFAed pitchers from Group B, or 'flop'' and become Group D
    • **Ortega and De Horta are both R5 eligible and will need to be added to the 40-man, and would then have options
  • They might not be MLB-ready or have long-term stuff to play as SPs, but they should be able to give the Angels 2-4 innings every 2-4 days, sort of a Yusmeiro Petit/Noe Ramirez role, and can do so as soon as 2020 while they're still developing
     
• GROUP D : AAA Traditional Relievers 
  • These guys have options and can be the 'in-between' arm' that is called up when one SP is sent back after a start (#5), is a fresh arm for a day or two, and is sent back for a new SP (#6)
  • Luke Bard, Jake Jewell, Adam McCreery, Jeremy Rhoades**, Luis Pena**

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by totdprods

[eaterfan]

Great post Tot.

I think the Angels are out of it. I'd sell Bedrosian to a contender and see what we can get from him. I don't think he ever becomes an elite relief arm and without options I'd rather make room for more versatile arms who can go more innings.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Great post Tot.

I think the Angels are out of it. I'd sell Bedrosian to a contender and see what we can get from him. I don't think he ever becomes an elite relief arm and without options I'd rather make room for more versatile arms who can go more innings.

What about Robles? I think he'd bring more in a trade.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, eaterfan said:

Great post Tot.

I think the Angels are out of it. I'd sell Bedrosian to a contender and see what we can get from him. I don't think he ever becomes an elite relief arm and without options I'd rather make room for more versatile arms who can go more innings.

I do think Bedrosian and Robles could be in play - they have control, but they are also into arbitration and are out of options, so they’re the costliest of the pen arms and least flexible. They’re also quality arms though, so there isn’t a need - but if someone offers a good deal, Eppler should pounce. Those prospects we receive might make it easier to trade for that second SP we likely need, and between Buttrey, Anderson, Middleton, and Cole, we have a decent quartet of in-house, cheap, optionable high-lev relief arms to hold down that role. 

And I imagine guys like Madero, Ortega, and even Sandoval or Yan could be in play for those roles in the near-future too. And they could explore with Noe, J.C, Pena, or other waiver claims in those roles, since Eppler’s been able to replicate that often.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

I do think Bedrosian and Robles could be in play - they have control, but they are also into arbitration and are out of options, so they’re the costliest of the pen arms and least flexible. They’re also quality arms though, so there isn’t a need - but if someone offers a good deal, Eppler should pounce. Those prospects we receive might make it easier to trade for that second SP we likely need, and between Buttrey, Anderson, Middleton, and Cole, we have a decent quartet of in-house, cheap, optionable high-lev relief arms to hold down that role. 

And I imagine guys like Madero, Ortega, and even Sandoval or Yan could be in play for those roles in the near-future too. And they could explore with Noe, J.C, Pena, or other waiver claims in those roles, since Eppler’s been able to replicate that often.

I’m not sure what they’d get for Bedrosian. José Álvarez had been more consistent than Bedrosian and they got Luís García for him. 

[tdawg87]

Honestly I'd sell high on Robles. He's been great this year and is having a career year. 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, RBM said:

Great recap. Thanks.

I think it's possible Canning will establishes himself and is in the rotation full time to start the season so the sixth starter will come from your group A.  

If Eppler can pull this off we will have a really nice rotation next year.

I put Canning in Group A rather than the MLB SP group because I assume he will have some sort of innings limit still in 2020, or will at least run some risk of sophomore slump or dare say injury (that is how he dropped to the 2nd round) so it made sense to place him there - but he is right on the fringe, and how he performs in Aug/Sept this year probably define his placement for ‘20. 

Also, if we have enough healthy and productive depth, innings-limits night not be a big deal next year if we have a deep pen and shuffle 8-9 guys through 6 rotation spots. There will be a natural inning limit resulting from that.

[eaterfan]

3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

What about Robles? I think he'd bring more in a trade.

I think he has a better chance to help the Angels next year. I just see Bedrosian being waived at some point when there's an injury and we have 4 other high leverage guys in the pen who have options. I'm not opposed to trading either at the right price, but I think the right price is much lower for Bedrosian.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I’m not sure what they’d get for Bedrosian. José Álvarez had been more consistent than Bedrosian and they got Luís García for him. 

If it was winter, I’d agree, but teams do some crazy shit for relief help in July. Ultimately I think they should keep both. We finally have a decent pen. But if someone overpays for really anyone in our pen, even the cheap high-lev guys, I’d be all ears. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by totdprods

[Jay]

58 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

You don’t need 5 studs to be a good team. If you have 3 who are better than average and stay healthy, and then can rotate around and get 5 innings and 2-3 runs from the other spots, you’ll be good. 

Somehow this formula never seems to work for the Angels.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Calzone 2 said:

With Pujols, Upton, Trout, Simmons and Cozart adding up to $115M in 2020 it’s going to be extremely difficult to sign Cole for $20M -$24M per and still field a team. 

Why?

[AngelsFanSince86]

 

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Also in that same thread posted a couple up, with the Archer discussion. 

(Not trying to be a dick or anything, I'm just losing track of what discussions are happening where)

I should have elaborated.  The point of my post was that we don't necessarily need studs.  We need solid guys who can average a fair amount of innings (5-6 per start) and give solid production.  I just agree that Archer is a good example of someone who fits that bill.  The fact that there are people on here still criticizing him speaks to the OP's point. You can't get a sure thing without giving up a lot.  Middle rotation guys aren't sure things and that is why they are middle rotation guys and not aces.

 

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Archer the past 3 1/2 years has NOT been a middle of the rotation guy, though.   ERA around 4.30 and WHIP around 1.30 since 2016, and since 2018 has only averaged about 5.4 innings/start.   That's more like #4/#5, especially when factoring in 2018/2019 stats. 

4.10 ERA  and 5.9 innings/start...Archer's stats from 2016-2018 if you remove the portion with the Pirates. Not to mention his FIP and SO/9 are even better.  He has been a middle of the rotation guy outside of his time with the Pirates.  In 2018 a 4.10 ERA places him 41st in the league and 5.9 innings/start places him in the 30-40 range.  That means those stats make him one of the top #2 guys in the league if all pitchers were dispersed evenly and at worst makes him a middle of rotation guy.  I know we can't fully discount his Pirates stats, but something seems to be off with them given Cole's success after leaving as well as Glasnow's success early this season prior to getting hurt.

 

totdprods has had some good posts on this thread and they all point to the necessity of trading for a middle rotation type of guy.  And the OP was stating that there is always risk involved in these types of acquisitions.  There isn't one middle of the rotation pitcher that is perfect and can't be critiqued.  From what I can tell, a middle rotation guy is someone who has great stuff and has the ability to go 7 or 8 innings, but more consistently around 6.  However, is less consistent than an ace and so has more 1-3 inning games where he just isn't on and gets lit up.  These are guys like Lynn and Archer.  Guys who have 5-10 starts a year where they give up 4+ runs, including a couple 7+ runs games (as opposed to someone like Scherzer who average 3-5 of these types of games, including maybe 1 blowout).  We aren't going to trade for an ace and its expensive to sign middle rotation guys on the FA market.  You have to give them solid AAV, but also commit to them for years.  So the best is to try and trade for someone who's value may be down, but overall has proven to be a solid pitcher.  Lynn and Archer both have good stuff and both have been good throughout their entire careers outside of one year.  I like Archer because of his (lack of) injury history and because his trade value should be at an all time low.  But again, there are probably other guys that fit a similar bill and I hope the Angels can swing a deal for one of them because it will be necessary moving forward.

[eligrba]

No to Archer. The Angels just flushed an Archer type pitcher. 

[Claude]

7 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I don’t know about that. Where else do you think they’d need to spend more than $4-5M? And they are going to have a lot of spots occupied by guys making less than $1M.

The reason that they’ve waited to go big on free agents is that you can’t do it until you have a lot of homegrown (cheap) players to fill around them. Last year they needed 2 starters so they spent $20M on Cahill/Harvey. If they have more young guys who are ready, and they only need one FA, that’s $20M for Cole. 

Tragically, losing Skaggs alters the equation, but they are gaining Ohtani for $700K or so. Heaney will make $4-5M. Every other guy on the SP depth chart will make less than $2M, and most less than $1M.

Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Barría, Suarez, Peña is a good start. 

You don’t need 5 studs to be a good team. If you have 3 who are better than average and stay healthy, and then can rotate around and get 5 innings and 2-3 runs from the other spots, you’ll be good. 

So if Arte didn’t want to outbid the Nats at 6/140M for Corbin (bargain) with the same budget what makes you think that Arte is going to shell out $200M for Cole.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

So if Arte didn’t want to outbid the Nats at 6/140M for Corbin (bargain) with the same budget what makes you think that Arte is going to shell out $200M for Cole.

Are you still upset that Corbin spurned your Yankees?  

Everyone knew going into this offseason that Corbin was going back east.  So it wasn’t just kind of outbidding the Nats you had to really outbid them to get him to stay out west.