Can Cody Bellinger hold off Mike Trout?

[beatlesrule]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/7-burning-questions-for-the-mlb-stretch-run/amp/

A healthy Mike Trout is usually a strong pick to lead the majors in WAR. From the Los Angeles Angels outfielder’s first full MLB season in 2012 through 2018, Trout finished first among hitters in WAR four times in seven chances. The only exceptions were 2015 (when Bryce Harper rattled off what looks like one of the all-time fluke seasons), 2017 (when Trout was injured for a big part of the season) and 2018 (when both happened — Trout was hurt and Mookie Betts also had an all-time great campaign). The 27-year-old Trout has already passed numerous Hall of Famers in career WAR, so it makes sense that it would take either an injury or a historic rival season to dethrone him from his customary spot atop the league leaderboard.

This year, Trout is healthy, which is a big part of the equation. He’s also having one of his best-ever seasons at the plate. But this time, the rival performance is an all-time great one being served up by Dodgers right fielder Cody Bellinger, who is on pace for 10.8 WAR by season’s end (which would rank among the top 30 or so seasons by a batter in MLB history). Bellinger streaked ahead of Trout relatively early in the season and hasn’t looked back — though maybe he should start checking the rearview mirror. With a .476 weighted on-base average to Bellinger’s .303 over the past 14 days, Trout has now pulled within 0.07 WAR of his Dodger counterpart on the season. And on top of his stellar numbers, Trout is also one of the most consistent players in baseball history, so he’s likely to get to his usual (astronomical) WAR level by the end of the year. The real question is whether Bellinger can continue to keep pace with this crazy career year of his own

That's just one of the seven questions in the article which is worth a read.

[Blarg]

According to fWAR Bellinger 5.7  is well behind Trout at 6.4. 

[Blarg]

Just to note, in the NL Bellinger has Yellich on his heels at 5.1. Trout has Bregman at 3.9. 

Trout will win his 3rd MVP this year. 

[bloodbrother]

bWAR still has Bellinger slightly ahead of Trout right now - 6.6 to 6.2 - but Trout is closing the gap and quick.

[fan_since79]

The consistent greatness and his ability to adjust is what distinguishes Trout. Day in and day out he produces, works hard, and is a leader among men.

And just now entering his prime years. Bellinger has a long way to go before we can compare him to Trout. We'll see if this season is a fluke or an indicator of his true potential.

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, RBM said:

Baseball Reference has Bellinger at 6.6, Trout at 6.2 and Yelich at 4.9.

They give Bellinger the advantage based on defense. His dWAR is 1.5, Trout's 0.5 and Yelich's is -0.1. 

Is Bellinger really that much better on defense?

No. bWAR is basically useless now. 

[Fish Oil]

Trout being Trout.

GOAT

[tdawg87]

I remember when Bellinger was batting .400 and Dodger fans were comparing him to Ted Williams.

Trout is now tied with him in OPS.

[tdawg87]

Just now, RBM said:

What is bWAR?

Baseball-reference WAR. It greatly overvalues defense. It also has Mike Minor at 5.7 WAR.

[GrittyVeterans]

Trout’s the better hitter AND plays the more valuable position defensively. 

The dudes BABIP is like 45 points below his career average and he’s still out producing everyone. With a little more luck, he’d be hitting .320/.470/.680 right now

[Lou]

"The only exceptions were 2015 (when Bryce Harper rattled off what looks like one of the all-time fluke seasons)"

 

Nice. 

[tdawg87]

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, bloodbrother said:

bWAR still has Bellinger slightly ahead of Trout right now - 6.6 to 6.2 - but Trout is closing the gap and quick.

[Taylor]

59 minutes ago, RBM said:

What is bWAR?

bellingerWAR

[tdawg87]

buttWAR

[Taylor]

tWAR has Trout at 20.0 and everyone else at 0.0.

[Troll Daddy]

Personal awards are just consolation prizes imo. Nice to see Trouty catching fire . Having Ohtani and Upton batting behind him is paying off BIG. 

Sure would be great to watch Trout lead the team to another WS Title. I see a change in Trout’s overall demeanor after signing his extension. He is truly breaking out of his shell and becoming the team leader and being more vocal #akaJeter. 

[Sam Sanchez]

What does gWAR say though?

 

[happybat4]

This article made it seem like Trout was hurt last year and that's why Betts won. Betts also missed time last year, he actually played 4 fewer games than Trout. Betts just had a better year last year.

[Lou]

27 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

This article made it seem like Trout was hurt last year and that's why Betts won. Betts also missed time last year, he actually played 4 fewer games than Trout. Betts just had a better year last year.

The point was that if Trout hadn't been injured he would have compiled a higher OPS than Betts ended up with (Betts' stat remaining what it was) 

 

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, happybat4 said:

This article made it seem like Trout was hurt last year and that's why Betts won. Betts also missed time last year, he actually played 4 fewer games than Trout. Betts just had a better year last year.

Their playing time was about even, actually. Trout had more games but less PA's. Offensively, Trout was slightly better. Apparently, Betts was better defensively. Either way, for a lot of writers, unless Trout was clearly ahead tie goes to the guy on a playoff team.

[Glen]

Almost every year there's a new challenger, and every year that player is challenging Trout. 

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Glen said:

Almost every year there's a new challenger, and every year that player is challenging Trout. 

And every year, the challenger's team's fans insist that the challenger is for real and Trout is done. Like freaking clockwork. And the next season? They go hide in the corner in embarrassment at their stupidity.

[happybat4]

12 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Their playing time was about even, actually. Trout had more games but less PA's. Offensively, Trout was slightly better. Apparently, Betts was better defensively. Either way, for a lot of writers, unless Trout was clearly ahead tie goes to the guy on a playoff team.

It wasn't a tie though. Betts was leading.

[eligrba]

Who cares?