Angels bullpen is the ultimate Eppler gamble

[Inside Pitch]

11 hours ago, VariousCrap said:

I understand that is the narrative being pushed by some.  Not all GM's agree with that though.

Thats not a narrative -- it's something that has been pretty much a staple of sabermetrics since before analytics was a big deal.   Used to be that any deal for a reliever in excess of two years was considered a massive risk if not outright stupid.   RP volatility has always been a thing.   For all the Angels warts over the years they have long had a history of putting together quality bullpens on the cheap, be it with discarded pitchers or failed starters -- hell Percival was a former catcher.   RP being an eyesore didn't become an issue until the smartest guy in the room traded away everything that could throw a baseball and there was nothing left to convert into RP so the team has essentially been almost exclusively using the waiver wire to build that "depth".

[Jeff Fletcher]

10 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

Pitchers who hold leads and save games on a regular basis is a good start.

You’re going to have to be more specific than that. What is a “regular basis”? What does “hold leads” mean? If they have a 3-run lead and give up 2 is that ok? If they have a 7-run lead and give up 6 is that OK? And for how many years?

[VariousCrap]

29 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Thats not a narrative -- it's something that has been pretty much a staple of sabermetrics since before analytics was a big deal.   Used to be that any deal for a reliever in excess of two years was considered a massive risk if not outright stupid. 

 

I have no issue with having certain restrictions on which arms you choose for the BP such as not offering more than two or three years for example.  I am definitely not saying that a team should go on a spending spree for the BP.  I'm saying it is a good idea to have two or three proven arms in the bullpen and then fill it with the cheap guys with upside.

 

[VariousCrap]

30 minutes ago, Stradling said:

They had 26 blown saves.  Same as the Dodgers and one more than Milwaukee, who I believe we would all agree has an amazing bullpen.  

 

I would then say a goal of Eppler's should be to try to put together a bullpen that would blow less games this year.  A couple proven arms might be all that is needed.

Edited to add: Of course, if Middleton would have been healthy last year, I think he helps knock that 26 blown saves down.

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

I would then say a goal of Eppler's should be to try to put together a bullpen that would blow less games this year.  A couple proven arms might be all that is needed.

Edited to add: Of course, if Middleton would have been healthy last year, I think he helps knock that 26 blown saves down.

I think calling a lead lost as early as the 6th a blown save is pretty dumb.   If you break the game into thirds it would still be considered the middle of the game.  Hell if you’re the home team you have four more at bats.  Unless of course I misunderstand blown saves.  

[stormngt]

13 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

And yet none of the 2002 bullpen was "proven" prior to that season save for Percy.    Donkey was picked off off the scrap heap as was Weber.  Al Levine had been a waiver wire pick up from the Rangers the year before and Scot Shields was a nobody going into that season.  

 

 

And as you said Percy.  

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

They had 26 blown saves.  Same as the Dodgers and one more than Milwaukee, who I believe we would all agree has an amazing bullpen.  

How many save opportunities did we have in regards to the Dodgers and brewers?  Obviously those with more save opportunities will blow more saves than those with less save opportunity.

[Hubs]

15 minutes ago, stormngt said:

How many save opportunities did we have in regards to the Dodgers and brewers?  Obviously those with more save opportunities will blow more saves than those with less save opportunity.

Angels had 26 blown saves and 61 save opportunities. The Save % at 57.8% was 27th in baseball. Texas, surprisingly was #1, with a 75% conversion rate. Seattle and Washington were tied for #2 at 74.07%. Seattle had 21 blown saves in 81 opportunities.

[Jay]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Our pen will be an area of strength this year and for years to come.  

[Glen]

Looks like we won't be gambling on Ottavino.

[HaloNArizona]

I think the problem with the pen is being over stated....Why?

Our starting pitchers in 162 games last year, threw 802.1 innings, less than 5 innings per start.

Our bullpen in 162 games, threw 632 innings, or about 4 innings per game.

For comparison:

Astros SP - 955.1 IP

Seattle SP - 891.1

Texas SP - 846

Oakland - 824

Boston - 871.1

Cleveland - 993.2

Atlanta - 899.2

Brewers - 847

Chicago Cubs - 888

 

To move the needle with regards to the bullpen, it must begin with the starters...We need Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Harvey and Cahill to go more than 5 innings.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, HaloNArizona said:

I think the problem with the pen is being over stated....Why?

Our starting pitchers in 162 games last year, threw 802.1 innings, less than 5 innings per start.

Our bullpen in 162 games, threw 632 innings, or about 4 innings per game.

For comparison:

Astros SP - 955.1 IP

Seattle SP - 891.1

Texas SP - 846

Oakland - 824

Boston - 871.1

Cleveland - 993.2

Atlanta - 899.2

Brewers - 847

Chicago Cubs - 888

 

To move the needle with regards to the bullpen, it must begin with the starters...We need Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Harvey and Cahill to go more than 5 innings.  

The lack of offense also hurts the bullpen. 

If the relievers are constantly being asked to hold a 1-run lead for 4 innings, they're going to blow a lot. Also, the leverage relievers are going to be used a lot, which is going to make them less effective. 

Sometimes the starter  needs to go 7, and sometimes the bullpen needs to inherit a 5-run lead. Neither of those things happened nearly often enough for the Angels last year.

[Make Angels Great Again]

How many innings did our pen pitch in comparison to the rest of the MLB?

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

How many innings did our pen pitch in comparison to the rest of the MLB?

2nd most.  

[Docwaukee]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=1&rost=0&age=0

check out SD vs. MD.  or shutdowns vs. meltdowns.  we led the league in meltdowns.  

I typically like WPA but it can get skewed depending on what leverage opportunities you are given.  

this type of statistic is normally non-predictive, but one thing to note is that over the last three years, the Angels have the worst relative performance in high leverage situations.  In other words we have been much worse in high leverage relative to normal leverage .  

[HaloNArizona]

32 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

How many innings did our pen pitch in comparison to the rest of the MLB?

Tampa Bay* (Due to RP starting): 824

As - 641

Padres - 635

Angels: 632

Brewers: 614

Twins - 610

Marlins - 606

Reds: 602

Baltimore: 597

[Capital_Dave]

On 1/16/2019 at 6:39 PM, Jeff Fletcher said:

That's what I meant. I stand by my statement.

In fact, let's look it up.

Let's just call 50 games and an ERA of 3.50 or better "exemplary." That's a pretty low bar for exemplary.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/3RN1N

There have been 13 pitchers who have done that each of the last three years. Only 40 pitchers have done it two of the last three years.

Point is, relievers are a huge crapshoot. Your chances of getting quality out of an $8M reliever are not much better than a $2M reliever.

 

One of those "two of three" pitchers... Cody Allen.

[bloodbrother]

So Cody Allen is now added to the pen. Only LHP is Jerez who....I'm not even sure makes the opening day roster

[Pancake Bear]

12 hours ago, VariousCrap said:

 

How many leads did the bullpen give up last year?

They were overworked massively. No team other than Tampa (who rolled out a 4-man rotation deliberately) had more reliever innings combined with fewer innings from the rotation. 

Seriously, think about it. This isn't that hard to figure out.

[Blarg]

On 1/16/2019 at 10:25 PM, VariousCrap said:

 

And there is actual data that guys who make a lot of money often do great the next season.

You really do like to post various crap. 

Look up Lance Lynn, Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb, Brian Shaw, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Tyler Chatwood and Mike Minor from last seasons free agency pool. And those are just pitchers.

[VariousCrap]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

You really do like to post various crap. 

Look up Lance Lynn, Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb, Brian Shaw, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Tyler Chatwood and Mike Minor from last seasons free agency pool. And those are just pitchers.

 

Doesn't change the fact many contracts end up working out as well.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, VariousCrap said:

 

Doesn't change the fact many contracts end up working out as well.

no they don't.  name all the starting pitching contracts of 3 years or more over the last 15 years that have worked out well

[Blarg]

Research is time consuming

[VariousCrap]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

no they don't.  name all the starting pitching contracts of 3 years or more over the last 15 years that have worked out well

I was talking in general regarding all FA's.  Not just pitching.

[ettin]

21 hours ago, bloodbrother said:

So Cody Allen is now added to the pen. Only LHP is Jerez who....I'm not even sure makes the opening day roster

He has an option so it isn't a big deal.