Angels Interested in Josh Harrison? // Remaining IF Market

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

I'm not buying this rumor 

To be honest, pretty much anytime the Angels are connected to someone, it means the opposite, at least during Eppler's tenure.

There was zero connection with Harvey, Cahill, and Bour. 
The Angels were in on Corbin, though it was never really mentioned as an option. 
Happ, Eovaldi, and Ramos are the only ones where the Angels were mentioned and an offer/interest was actually there, but those were pretty easy to assume.

So, yeah, whenever I see Morosi or Rosenthal or anyone #Angels on a tweet with a player, I usually assume it ain't happening. 

[HaloNArizona]

Pass on Harrison....we have too many players that fit this mold.

[Angel Oracle]

Would rather they sign Lowrie.

[ukyah]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Jon Morosi‏Verified account @jonmorosi 42m42 minutes ago

Josh Harrison's market includes #Rangers, #Angels and #Nationals, among other teams, sources say. @MLB @MLBNetwork

This seems like the Eppleriest of Eppler FA IF possibilities. Typically, I'd feel good with this, but Eppler's lack of success with Kinsler, Espinosa, and to a degree Cozart, leave me a little iffy. 
Seems to indicate the Angels may still be browsing the infield FA market, which I think is wise - there are plenty of options available still, and there's been little to no movement so far. Some of these guys could be had cheaply, and even if it means Fletcher starts the season in AAA, it's worth considering.

Harrison is very good defensively and his addition would give the Angels crazy depth in the infield - he'd possibly be able to spot some time in corner outfield here and there as well. Hits lefties well.

how was kinsler a lack of success? we didn't miss the playoffs because of kinsler. he signed him, then flipped him for some key bullpen pieces.

[ukyah]

56 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Would rather they sign Lowrie.

exactly my thought.

sign lowrie and put him at lead off. seems like a good addition the the lineup.

[Docwaukee]

don't believe this either.  Eppler cares about defense and obp.  Harrison has a career bb rate of 4% and obp of .317 with a big step back on defense in 2018.   

pass.  

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, ukyah said:

how was kinsler a lack of success? we didn't miss the playoffs because of kinsler. he signed him, then flipped him for some key bullpen pieces.

I clarified - lack of success was a little harsh - failed to rebound was a better way of putting it, and that can be applied to all of those names. Kinsler just had a higher floor to work with.

[Chuck]

We have Cozart, Fletcher, La Stella and Rengifo for 2B. Doesn't make sense IMO.

We also have Ward who if he has a great ST you almost have to give him the nod at 3B and move Cozart to 2B.

Ward had his major league cup of coffee like Trout, Glaus and others who struggled intially only to have a great first full season. I doubt his amazing '18 minor league season was a fluke across AA and AAA. But I could be wrong.

[UndertheHalo]

Harrison would have been a good get for the Angels 2 years ago.  Now they’ve got Cozart, Fletcher, LaStella and Rengifo.  It would be dumb to waste money there when they’ve got 4 players competeting for the spot now. 

Edited December 28, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Second Base]

Harrison really doesn't make sense. Again, Tommy La Stella was brought in for a reason, and Eppler already said he's happy with their current depth and that they plan on rolling out the young guys. They won't keep around four utility infielders (Cozart, Fletcher, La Stella and Harrison) particularly with two 1B on the active roster (Pujols and Bour), as well as a full time DH (Ohtani). 

It just doesn't work that way. We already know what the infield will be to start the season. Pujols at DH, Bour at 1B, La Stella, Fletcher or Cozart at 2B, Simmons at SS and Cozart, La Stella or Ward at 3B. 

Entering Spring Training, there will be a three-way battle for the last roster spot between Fletcher, Ward and Rengifo. Fletcher has an early lead because of timely hitting and insanely good defense last year. Ward carries the OBP, power and speed advantage over others, though won't have an early lead because he struggled in his first taste of Major league pitching and is still refining at 3B. Rengifo comes in with a disadvantage because he doesn't have any experience, Eppler may want to delay his service clock and his performance in AAA was more "good-not-great." But Rengifo is also the happy medium between Ward and Fletcher. He's not the defender Fletcher is, but he's better than Ward. He shares Ward's OBP advantage over Fletcher, but lacks Ward's power. All three have good speed, but in different ways. Rengifo has a quicker first step an the other two but can be too aggressive on the base paths, leading to mistakes. Ward believe it or not is the fastest of the three once underway. Won't be a great base thief, but pick some his spots well and can motor. Fletcher's first step isn't as fast as Rengifo, nor is he as fast as Ward under way, but he's very smart. Rengifo carries more ability to be an everyday player than Fletcher, but doesn't have the upside Ward has. Rengifo can also be a utility infielder, the defensively he can't match Fletcher, but is more versatile than Ward. 

You figure Fletcher will win the spot to start the year, but by the end of 2019, it'll be interesting to see who seperates the,selves from the others. Fletcher's contact ability and defensive acumen could make him a 4 win player and he can run away with a starting job. Ward may get his timing down and his defense will improve with more reps and he could turn into a legitimate 20 HR, 15 SB .350 OBP starting 3B. And Rengifo could post a .370 OBP, steal 30 bases and play solid defense too. And on the peripherals of that competition come the outside factors as well. Zack Cozart can suddenly turn into a 4 win player again, or if he fails to stay healthy or hit, he could be traded or released at the end of the year. And Jahmai Jones carries more upside than any name I've mentioned so far and he'll be playing 2B in AA. He carries the potential to absolutely erupt and become a 20/20 hitter that posts a .370 OBP. 

2019 is going to tell us a lot about the future of the team, more so than any other year in recent memory. But I'm pretty sure, Josh Harrison isn't part of that future. 

[hangin n wangin]

Not interested.

[ettin]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

Am I wrong in the thought that Harrison and La Stella would be too repetitive?

I believe as I mentioned in the 3B article that Eppler will try to find a stopgap at 3B. Harrison could play there and let Ward act as depth on the farm or at the corners and La Stella would compliment the infield in terms of his left-handed bat (because the infield is basically all righties). Would also compliment a platoon with Calhoun so I can see it happening in a super utility role.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

We have Cozart, Fletcher, La Stella and Rengifo for 2B. Doesn't make sense IMO.

We also have Ward who if he has a great ST you almost have to give him the nod at 3B and move Cozart to 2B.

Ward had his major league cup of coffee like Trout, Glaus and others who struggled intially only to have a great first full season. I doubt his amazing '18 minor league season was a fluke across AA and AAA. But I could be wrong.

I get it Chuck. I'm just not a fan. I saw very little other than some avg defense and the ability to occasionally being able to run into a fastball. I hope I'm wrong I see looks like Mathis with BWoods #........

.247/.331/.354/.684 slash line in his future. 

[ukyah]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

I clarified - lack of success was a little harsh - failed to rebound was a better way of putting it, and that can be applied to all of those names. Kinsler just had a higher floor to work with.

sorry, i missed the follow up post.

[ukyah]

On 12/28/2018 at 2:08 PM, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

I get it Chuck. I'm just not a fan. I saw very little other than some avg defense and the ability to occasionally being able to run into a fastball. I hope I'm wrong I see looks like Mathis with BWoods #........

.247/.331/.354/.684 slash line in his future. 

avg/obp/slg/ops?

.331 obp?

if so, this is an opportunity to educate others reading this post. the average mlb hitter will have an obp 60+/- points higher than their batting average. these numbers hold up over a massive data group. 

the point being, the ideas we get in our heads often times don't have any basis in reality. statistically speaking, and on average, if you think that ward is going to hit .243, then you think he is slightly below league average, which is .249. the interesting thing is that you're not as negative on him as you think because you think he's going to significantly outperform the league average obp, which is .318, by 13 points and more impressively over 84 points higher than his average. 

another interesting point is that, in your projection, his slugging numbers would be way higher because he was getting on base at a significantly above average pace, he hit 6 homeruns and 3 doubles in 135 at bats, while only getting on base at a .245 obp. if he increase his obp by such a significant margin, then he'd have to slug at a higher rate, it doesn't fit his profile. as you said, he seems like a guy than can run into a fastball.

the point of all this is to say, ward isn't the hitter you project. he is either significantly worse or significantly better. i think if the angels were offered a guarantee that ward would give them .243 avg with a .331 obp and the appropriate corresponding slugging numbers they would write his name in pen in the lineup card.

it'll be interesting to see what eppler really thinks of him and how his rookie year progresses.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2018.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wardta01.shtml

 

 

[Halodays]

Unless he's cheap and I mean really cheap, I still prefer Tulo at the league minimum.. The only thing I like more about Harrison is his versatility. He can play the outfield and might save the Angels from having Peter Bourjos as the 4th outfielder.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Halodays said:

Unless he's cheap and I mean really cheap, I still prefer Tulo at the league minimum.. The only thing I like more about Harrison is his versatility. He can play the outfield and might save the Angels from having Peter Bourjos as the 4th outfielder.

I’d welcome Tulo as well. I see no reason Eppler shouldn’t be opportunistic with remaining FA infielders if the price is right.

It won’t hurt anyone if Fletcher, Ward, and Rengifo play the first month or two in SLC. The contributions of those three, or lack thereof by those ahead of them, likely won’t be the reasons we miss the playoffs.

I’d like to think by 2020, that won’t be the case, and these guys will be legitimately ready and forcing the issue at hand, with the next wave - Jones, Marsh, MacKinnon, perhaps Soto and Maitan - right behind.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 12/28/2018 at 3:33 PM, ukyah said:

avg/obp/slg/ops?

.331 obp?

if so, this is an opportunity to educate others reading this post. the average mlb hitter will have an obp 60+/- points higher than their batting average. these numbers hold up over a massive data group. 

the point being, the ideas we get in our heads often times don't have any basis in reality. statistically speaking, and on average, if you think that ward is going to hit .243, then you think he is slightly below league average, which is .249. the interesting thing is that your not as negative on him as you think because you think he's going to significantly outperform the league average obp, which is .318, by 13 points and more impressively over 84 points higher than his average. 

another interesting point is that, in your projection, his slugging numbers would be way higher because he was getting on base at a significantly above average pace, he hit 6 homeruns and 3 doubles in 135 at bats, while only getting on base at a .245 obp. if he increase his obp by such a significant margin, then he'd have to slug at a higher rate, it doesn't fit his profile. as you said, he seems like a guy than can run into a fastball.

the point of all this is to say, ward isn't the hitter you project. he is either significantly worse or significantly better. i think if the angels were offered a guarantee that ward would give them .243 avg with a .331 obp and the appropriate corresponding slugging numbers they would write his name in pen in the lineup card.

it'll be interesting to see what eppler really thinks of him and how his rookie year progresses.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2018.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wardta01.shtml

 

 

So, you were happy with Calaspo type #'s?..... I want more AVG, POWER, SLG, OPS from my 3rd baseman.

I dont see him ever doing much the bb/k's show through. If you as everyone here likes to project #'s across a full season.

OBP is a skewed stat against the overall production.

A 247 avg and a 300 SLG and a 684 OPS is horrid.

Interesting stat to cherry pick a response from! I get it, I dont see it, doesnt make my opinion wrong or incorrect. It is how I see him and what I've seen. 

Actually, if you look I went by his avg from each step along his promotions with the Angel's and averaged out his #'s at A+ in Cucamonga. Which is a young pitchers league, similar stadium and weather and location to Anaheim

Prost~

[ukyah]

6 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

So, you were happy with Calaspo type #'s?..... I want more AVG, POWER, SLG, OPS from my 3rd baseman.

I dont see him ever doing much the bb/k's show through. If you as everyone here likes to project #'s across a full season.

OBP is a skewed stat against the overall production.

A 247 avg and a 300 SLG and a 684 OPS is horrid.

Interesting stat to cherry pick a response from! I get it, I dont see it, doesnt make my opinion wrong or incorrect. It is how I see him and what I've seen. 

Actually, if you look I went by his avg from each step along his promotions with the Angel's and averaged out his #'s at A+ in Cucamonga. Which is a young pitchers league, similar stadium and weather and location to Anaheim

Prost~

it's cool, but you missed the point of what i was saying. i didn't say what i preferred and i wasn't cherrypicking. i was trying to illustrate that your projections not only  didn't fit the player, but didn't fit any players in general.

i'll make the main point again: ward isn't hitting .243 with a .331 obp. he's either hitting at a higher average than that or a significantly lower obp.

also, if he somehow managed those numbers, then his slugging and ops would be higher to because he's not a calaspo profile. aaaaaaannd, if he did have a .331 obp with any other numbers, then the angels not only start him regularly, but also probably hit him leadoff.

just for the sake of clarification, obp is not a skewed stat against overall production, average is. it's important that while you may disagree, others should not accept your statement as fact.

"One of the most basic sabermetric ideas is that On-Base Percentage (OBP) is a better way to measure players than batting average (AVG). ... "

 

if you had said ops, then i would agree, but that's not what you said, and it's not the crux of your previous post either.

[Docwaukee]

5 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

So, you were happy with Calaspo type #'s?..... I want more AVG, POWER, SLG, OPS from my 3rd baseman.

I dont see him ever doing much the bb/k's show through. If you as everyone here likes to project #'s across a full season.

OBP is a skewed stat against the overall production.

A 247 avg and a 300 SLG and a 684 OPS is horrid.

Interesting stat to cherry pick a response from! I get it, I dont see it, doesnt make my opinion wrong or incorrect. It is how I see him and what I've seen. 

Actually, if you look I went by his avg from each step along his promotions with the Angel's and averaged out his #'s at A+ in Cucamonga. Which is a young pitchers league, similar stadium and weather and location to Anaheim

Prost~

he's basically saying that your math is likely to be wrong.  

Based on the type of player Ward is, if he has a .331 obp, he's gonna be in the lineup because his slg and avg will fall in line around that.  

It's almost impossible to have a slg% as low as you mentioned with an obp of .331.  Last year, the lowest slg% for a batter with an obp of .331 or above was .362 and that was Cesar hernandez who had a slash of .253/.357/.362 and a wRC+ of 100.  With below avg defense at 2b he put up 2.2 WAR.  

If Taylor Ward is a 2 WAR player next year, every Angels fan I know would be stoked about that.  

 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

he's basically saying that your math is likely to be wrong.  

Based on the type of player Ward is, if he has a .331 obp, he's gonna be in the lineup because his slg and avg will fall in line around that.  

It's almost impossible to have a slg% as low as you mentioned with an obp of .331.  Last year, the lowest slg% for a batter with an obp of .331 or above was .362 and that was Cesar hernandez who had a slash of .253/.357/.362 and a wRC+ of 100.  With below avg defense at 2b he put up 2.2 WAR.  

If Taylor Ward is a 2 WAR player next year, every Angels fan I know would be stoked about that.  

 

Guys,

I guess you didnt understand my reply. Those were his exact averages at Cucamonga and in line with where I see him professionally. Not a 695+ ops and not any higher tha a .250 avg. And probably closer to .300-.313 than .330obp. But, I stuck with the same obp as he had at A+ in 1.5 seasons.

Also, those figures are great for a light hitting Jeff Mathis type hitter I see him as and not the power hitting 3bman you and we need him to be.

 

.247/.331/.354/.684 2 seasons at A+

[totdprods]

Speaking of Alberto Callaspo, how about that 2011 season? .288/.366/.375/.740 with a 112 OPS+ and more walks (58) than strikeouts (48) with a 3.5 WAR season. And a 3.4 WAR season in ‘12.

He actually had more walks (160) than strikeouts (142) in his Angels career, which seems totally crazy given where the game is now in terms of strikeout rates, especially considering how this was only a few years ago.

He was quietly the best 3B we’ve had in a long time. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

9 hours ago, totdprods said:

Speaking of Alberto Callaspo, how about that 2011 season? .288/.366/.375/.740 with a 112 OPS+ and more walks (58) than strikeouts (48) with a 3.5 WAR season. And a 3.4 WAR season in ‘12.

He actually had more walks (160) than strikeouts (142) in his Angels career, which seems totally crazy given where the game is now in terms of strikeout rates, especially considering how this was only a few years ago.

He was quietly the best 3B we’ve had in a long time. 

Just another slappy guy at a power position that we had that had he been the 2bman would had been outstanding production. But, since he was at what is considered a power position for lineups within the MLB. 

He served as a position filler.