MLBTR Angels predictions

[UndertheHalo]

absolute nightmarish shit. 

[Second Base]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html

JA Happ - 3/48

Joe Kelly - 3/27

Daniel Murphy 2/20

CC Sabathia 1/8

#NotMy Money

I guess it's doable if the Angels are able to cut expenses elsewhere, like cutting Shoemaker loose. 

[UndertheHalo]

Apparently, according to MLBTR the Angels are planning on being a retirement charity. 

[totdprods]

If you read at the bottom, they specifically say the Angels might not have the money for all four players.

And their predictions are only best fits, not all part of one plan. 

Of those four, Sabathia is the only deal I’d be happy with. Maybe Murphy.

I don’t want to see a 39-yr old JA Happ on this team, and Joe Kelly feels like Scott Downs, Joe Smith, or Justin Speier all over again - great the first year, but on a team where it doesn’t make any difference, decent the next, wheels fall off following.

[Blarg]

The Angels won't touch Sabathia. 

[Angelsjunky]

What is of more interest to me are the Harper and Machado predictions; very few publications have been willing to speculate on actual numbers.

Harper: 14/$420MM

Machado: 13/$390MM

I was predicting something like 10-12 years, $300-350MM and many here saying those were way too high, but they're going even higher - and I'm not totally surprised. But if they're right, then we're looking at a Trout extension of 12+ years, $500MM+...which is my current prediction.

[floplag]

Do not want on Happ at 16M per, sorry, no way no how i want to lay out that much to a 36 year old, ever, if i have a choice.  Way better options out there for that money

[tdawg87]

That off-season would suck. Replace Happ with Gio for cheaper. 

Joe Kelly....why tho?

Murphy and Black Sabathia? Meh.

[Jeff Fletcher]

18 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Joe Kelly - 3/27

That's the one that has the least chance of happening. No way Billy Eppler is spending that kind of money on a reliever.

The other names all make sense, although not sure about the dollars or years. 

[floplag]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

That's the one that has the least chance of happening. No way Billy Eppler is spending that kind of money on a reliever.

The other names all make sense, although not sure about the dollars or years. 

As much as id really like an anchor to go with the kids, i suspect you are right.

[GrittyVeterans]

Getting that many players older than 33 is just a bad idea, as we know

[Pancake Bear]

18 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The Angels won't touch Sabathia. 

They were talking with him last offseason I heard. Also, he had a 3.12 ERA outside of Yankee Stadium last season. You could do a lot worse than grab a guy like that for one year and 8 mil.

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

That's the one that has the least chance of happening. No way Billy Eppler is spending that kind of money on a reliever.

The other names all make sense, although not sure about the dollars or years. 

Agreed.  Personally, I love the Murphy match.  I don't see it happening, given Eppler's defensive philosophy, but I really think he'd do wonders for the lineup, either batting leadoff or hitting 4th or 5th. 

[Second Base]

I'm actually intrigued by J.A. Happ.  He's performing this well in the AL East, particularly in Yankee Stadium and Roger Centre.  That's not easy.  You put him in Angel Stadium with our defensive alignment and we could end up with a front of the rotation starter.  And as @totdprods said in another post, our 5th starters were just so awful last year.  Even a 4.50 ERA would be a marked improvement.  If Sabathia comes and delivers an ERA around 4.00 with 170 innings, that'd be huge.  And if you add Murphy to this offense, I think it becomes a pretty transformed unit.  It's adding another lefty batter, one with good (or great if you count doubles too) power and great OBP.  Suddenly the front and middle of the lineup becoming a legitimately dangerous thing to deal with.  Right now, all you have to do is pitch around Trout and Ohtani and you're in the clear.

[Pancake Bear]

38 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What is of more interest to me are the Harper and Machado predictions; very few publications have been willing to speculate on actual numbers.

Harper: 14/$420MM

Machado: 13/$390MM

I was predicting something like 10-12 years, $300-350MM and many here saying those were way too high, but they're going even higher - and I'm not totally surprised. But if they're right, then we're looking at a Trout extension of 12+ years, $500MM+...which is my current prediction.

Don't believe everything you read. Maybe there's a GM out there desperate enough to do a deal like that, but I think most will say no thanks at this point. 30 million till they're around 40? That's a lot for guys who already have issues - Machado's defense has already shown signs of problems and he doesn't hustle. Harper had major problems with the shift last year despite his OBP. I'd max out at 12yr, 30aav for 360 at either. That's the absolute most I could see them going for, and I wouldn't pay it. 8-10 years at 30 million aav would be more palatable, and I think they both get that much. Whether they get more depends on how dumb the GM's with money are. 

EDIT: The MLBTR numbers in general seem high to me. Strange as it is to say this, I think Heyman's predictions a day or so ago, which are a bit more on the conservative side, are closer to what I'd expect to see (although it's possible I'm being overly reactionary based on last year's free agency results).

[aznhockeyguy]

Would not do 3 years for J.A. Happ.  If the Angels are interested in him, I'd do something like 2 years/ 40mil.  Joe Kelly, no thanks, reminds me too much of Fuentes by walking too many.   Murphy is a solid player, but I don't think 2nd base is a problem nor should the Angels spend the money on it with a plethora of options internally.  Sabathia, the connection is there with Eppler and he was still effective, but I'd like the Angels to pursue better options first before sniffing Sabathia.

[tdawg87]

Let's not assume that Trout expects more than what Harper gets. Ideally it's unspoken but I doubt he'd turn down an identical offer.

[Angel Oracle]

33 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Agreed.  Personally, I love the Murphy match.  I don't see it happening, given Eppler's defensive philosophy, but I really think he'd do wonders for the lineup, either batting leadoff or hitting 4th or 5th. 

Murphy could work as a 1B, if Pujols can accept a limit of 65 starts between 1B/DH.  Ohtani gets about 130 DH starts, which leaves about 130 1B starts for Murphy.    

[Taylor]

41 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

They were talking with him last offseason I heard. Also, he had a 3.12 ERA outside of Yankee Stadium last season. You could do a lot worse than grab a guy like that for one year and 8 mil.

He had a 3.12 ERA at home.

 

[Erstad Grit]

No to murphy. We have Pujols and Ohtani fighting for DH and a LF who should be DH.

Happ- not at that money

Kelly- don't like that money for non proven closers with a nice year. RP cannot be trusted

Sabathia- I'm actually good with that. Nice 4/5 guy imo

GO GET CORBIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[wopphil]

They are way high on many of their predictions, just like last year.

[GrittyVeterans]

Machado getting 13/390 is just pure lunacy. That's Pujols deal crazy

[Broad Street]

So we can have a full rotation of lefties? No thanks.

[AngelStew43]

We won't be signing so many left handers unless we have a trade in place for one or more of them.  Also, I can't see Heaney and Skaggs going anywhere, they both showed flashes last season, and have potential to be at least very good number two starters.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

He had a 3.12 ERA at home.

 

Whoops. My bad. Must’ve been a fluke thing for him - It was the opposite in 2017.