MLBTR Angels predictions

[floplag]

54 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I should qualify that.  I'd be very happy with getting him if it were for 3 years but I think he's going to get 4/80.  

I have always hated that mid tier free agent pitcher market.  Even more so when those guys are borderline upper tier but not really.  Particularly when the contract begins at age 31 or greater.  

It's filled with contracts like Darvish (who is probably closer to upper tier but not quite), Cobb, Jordan Zimmermann, Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, James Shields, Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, and going further back, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez, CJ Wilson, Mark Buehrle, and a few others going further back.  

Those are all contracts of 4 years or more btw.  I'd like to get as many under age 31 seasons as possible.  So if we're going to go 4 years, then Kikuchi, Corbin and Eovaldi would be my primary targets.  Otherwise, I think there is going to be some value plays on guys for 1-2 years that can really help us short term.  I would prefer we get both.  

Thanks but, now im even more confused. 

None of the upper tier guys that are truly upgrades are likely to come in on less than 4 year deals, this is part of the reason i was looking in other directions.   Early projections suggest 4-5 years for all the actual upgrades and 15+ M per AAV. 

If you drop to the guys you can get for three years its a fairly large drop off and thus less of an upgrade potential.  To use Stradling's grades from another thread you're basically asking for an A-B guy on C contract, whose gonna take that?

At best you might be talking about Gio Gonzales and maybe Eovaldi and paying about 25 M per for them.    More likely youre talking about Happ. Roberston, Lynn type guys and paying 8-10 per for each one.

I see three distinct tiers in FA SP and the more you drop down in tier the more i like going the other way better.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Thanks but, now im even more confused. 

None of the upper tier guys that are truly upgrades are likely to come in on less than 4 year deals, this is part of the reason i was looking in other directions.   Early projections suggest 4-5 years for all the actual upgrades and 15+ M per AAV. 

If you drop to the guys you can get for three years its a fairly large drop off and thus less of an upgrade potential.  To use Stradling's grades from another thread you're basically asking for an A-B guy on C contract, whose gonna take that?

At best you might be talking about Gio Gonzales and maybe Eovaldi and paying about 25 M per for them.    More likely youre talking about Happ. Roberston, Lynn type guys and paying 8-10 per for each one.

I see three distinct tiers in FA SP and the more you drop down in tier the more i like going the other way better.

there are a couple of things to accomplish by adding SP

Ohtani and Richards gave us 26 starts, 128 ip, and a 3.52 era.  
The group that replaced them gave us 25 starts and 76.2 ip and an 8.22 era.  

That's 51 starts, 204.2 ip, and a 5.28 era.  

we didn't want the production of Ohtani Richards to go away but it is nonetheless so we need to replace it.
Then we need to replace the crap that we got in the wake of their injuries
on top of that, we need more innings from the starters.  Because the pen arms that are being used to supplement those innings are from the back of the pen.  not the front.  Which means it's Akeel Morris, Despaigne, more Noe Ramirez, Edurado Perez, Oliver Drake, Miguel Almonte, Parker Bridwell eating those innings.  

So call it and even 300ip over 50 starts that we need.  And let's estimate a conservative 4.28 era instead of a 5.28 era.  I think that's very reasonable for two pitchers that aren't going to cost you an arm and a leg.  But over the course of a season that's about a 3-4 win improvement.  

From that point, there are a ton of different routes you can go.  

Can you get that SP production from two guys that cost you around 18m for the 2019 season total?  Then you've got a little to spend on offense.  If you decide to spend more on pitching in hopes of better production, then you've got a little less.  Or you make a small trade by giving up nothing from your top 10 to get a guy like Zack Godley who's at league min.  Then you've got yourself about 20m to spend on the lineup.   

 

[Mark68]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Thanks but, now im even more confused. 

None of the upper tier guys that are truly upgrades are likely to come in on less than 4 year deals, this is part of the reason i was looking in other directions.   Early projections suggest 4-5 years for all the actual upgrades and 15+ M per AAV. 

If you drop to the guys you can get for three years its a fairly large drop off and thus less of an upgrade potential.  To use Stradling's grades from another thread you're basically asking for an A-B guy on C contract, whose gonna take that?

At best you might be talking about Gio Gonzales and maybe Eovaldi and paying about 25 M per for them.    More likely youre talking about Happ. Roberston, Lynn type guys and paying 8-10 per for each one.

I see three distinct tiers in FA SP and the more you drop down in tier the more i like going the other way better.

I doubt Gio or Eovaldi even get $20M per year. 

Given the choice, I'd want Eovaldi (younger, more upside). If either one signs for more than, say, $18M per, I'd be shocked.

[floplag]

6 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

I doubt Gio or Eovaldi even get $20M per year. 

Given the choice, I'd want Eovaldi (younger, more upside). If either one signs for more than, say, $18M per, I'd be shocked.

my comment on 25M was for both, just to clarify.  i dont think either gets 20M alone wither

[Hubs]

Sabathia re-upped with the Yankees, right?

The MLBTR folks got the number right though. And they also say the Angels could be in on:

3.  Patrick Corbin – Yankees.  Six years, $129MM. The Yankees have the money and the need, but teams like the Astros, Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Dodgers, Giants, Angels, and Twins make sense too. 

4.  Dallas Keuchel – Nationals.  Four years, $82MM. His suitors should be similar to those of Corbin.

5.  Craig Kimbrel – Cardinals.  Four years, $70MM. A return to Boston could be possible, or teams like the Cardinals, Angels, Cubs, Braves, Phillies, Mets, and Twins could get involved.

6.  Yasmani Grandal – Nationals.  Four years, $64MM. The Nationals, Rangers, Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Angels, Phillies, Mets, Braves, and Rockies could be suitors.

7.  Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox.  Four years, $60MM. The Red Sox could try to bring him back, and otherwise the Astros, Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, and Yankees could be in the mix.

12.  Yusei Kikuchi – Padres.  Six years, $42MM. Kikuchi will draw interest from contenders and rebuilding clubs alike.

13.  Josh Donaldson – Cardinals.  One year, $20MM. The Cardinals, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Braves, and White Sox could be options.

15.  Wilson Ramos – Astros.  Three years, $36MM. The Astros, Red Sox, Athletics, Angels, Rockies, or Dodgers could work, as could a return to D.C.

16.  Marwin Gonzalez – Twins.  Four years, $36MM. The Twins, Cubs, Angels, Brewers, Tigers, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, and Rockies are among the many fits.

18.  Zach Britton – Astros.  Three years, $33MM. The Astros, Cubs, Red Sox, Twins, Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, and Dodgers could be involved.

23.  Jed Lowrie – Athletics.  Three years, $30MM.  There’s mutual interest in a return to Oakland, while the Twins, Orioles, Blue Jays, Angels, Cubs, Brewers, Nationals, Rockies, and Dodgers could also be in the mix. 

27.  Gio Gonzalez – Athletics.  Two years, $24MM. Teams like the A’s, Angels, Reds, Braves, and Giants could be in the mix for a player with this type of stability.

 

So pretty much the same names we all banter with every day. I like Eovaldi but he has injury concerns, so that may not fit the current MO. I like Kikuchi, becuase of his age. I like the Catchers, and am thinking more about Gonzalez again.

[aznhockeyguy]

Not sure if discussed already, but Robinson Chirinos is available.  Good offensive backstop catcher that will be pretty cheap to sign.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, aznhockeyguy said:

Not sure if discussed already, but Robinson Chirinos is available.  Good offensive backstop catcher that will be pretty cheap to sign.

Defense is declining very quickly (and it wasn’t good to begin with) and his offense is slipping as well. At his age, he’d have to come cheap and with low expectations. Not a no, but not terribly interested. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, aznhockeyguy said:

Not sure if discussed already, but Robinson Chirinos is available.  Good offensive backstop catcher that will be pretty cheap to sign.

Not sure he can be counted on to provide much offensively moving forward and his defense completely cratered last year.   35 years old next season.

[aznhockeyguy]

Right, we know his limitations, but a number of posters were complaining about the team's offense.  Just throwing it out there.