OC Register: Angels Offseason Options: J.T. Realmuto

[UndertheHalo]

Just now, DMVol said:

It may be fair to you but no way would the Marlins jump on that....Marsh is a good prospect, Rengifo may have figured things out this year, we'll see....regardless, I think they can get a better deal than that....and probably will....

Ya I mean I think it’ll cost more.  I was just using a couple of guys that have been referenced. 

Im fine paying more.  He’s worth it.  Prospects are prospects.  JT Realmuto is a legit MLB all star.  The only two guys the Angels have that I would not trade are Adell and Canning. And I don’t think the Angels have to trade those guys to match what other clubs would offer. 

[UndertheHalo]

1 minute ago, DMVol said:

Braves have also been mentioned.....and their farm system is deeper than ours....

All you can hope for is that they’ll take a good shot.  The Angels can put together a compelling package.  Hopefully it works. 

[mtangelsfan]

My only concerns with Realmuto are health (catchers get beat up a lot) and him hitting in our league and in our park.  

[DMVol]

5 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

All you can hope for is that they’ll take a good shot.  The Angels can put together a compelling package.  Hopefully it works. 

Competition will be strong, that's for sure....

[Second Base]

10 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

As I said in the story, when Andrelton Simmons was available, I thought "There's no way the Angels would pay the prospect cost for a guy that lots of teams will want." But to Eppler...

1. Simmons was the type of player who isn't often available (a middle of the infield guy in his prime)

2. It was a spot where the Angels had basically zero internal answers.

So he paid the price. That's why I think they will at least entertain the idea of getting Realmuto.

Simmons was younger and had 4-5 years of control left on his team friendly contract.  JT Realmuto is older than Simmons was, and has only two years on control left.  These aren't exactly the same thing.  Not even that similar, really. 

[DMVol]

8 minutes ago, mtangelsfan said:

My only concerns with Realmuto are health (catchers get beat up a lot) and him hitting in our league and in our park.  

So, how about the 1b option (at least some of the time) Fletcher (or somebody) mentioned?

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 minute ago, Scotty@AW said:

Simmons was younger and had 4-5 years of control left on his team friendly contract.  JT Realmuto is older than Simmons was, and has only two years on control left.  These aren't exactly the same thing.  Not even that similar, really. 

And Realmuto also wouldn't cost as much as Simmons did, for those reasons. It's all relative.

[Second Base]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

And Realmuto also wouldn't cost as much as Simmons did, for those reasons. It's all relative.

I don't think that's necessarily true.  When Eppler acquired Simmons, defense was valued, but not at the same level it is right now.  What he was, was a light hitting defensive specialist at shortstop (at the time). 

The catching market is extremely limited.  More teams in need than good catchers available.  And the consensus is Realuto helps on both sides of the ball.  

I think if the Marlins do trade Realmuto, be prepared for a package that rivals what the Angels paid for Simmons. At the time, this was a low end starting infielder, a top pitching prospect and a future back end starter. 

So basically Kole Calhoun but with less money on the table, Griffin Canning and Joe Gatto. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I don't think that's necessarily true.  When Eppler acquired Simmons, defense was valued, but not at the same level it is right now.  What he was, was a light hitting defensive specialist at shortstop (at the time). 

The catching market is extremely limited.  More teams in need than good catchers available.  And the consensus is Realuto helps on both sides of the ball.  

I think if the Marlins do trade Realmuto, be prepared for a package that rivals what the Angels paid for Simmons. At the time, this was a low end starting infielder, a top pitching prospect and a future back end starter. 

So basically Kole Calhoun but with less money on the table, Griffin Canning and Joe Gatto. 

So what you're saying is: Simmons was more valuable because he was younger and had more years left. But Realmuto is actually more valuable because he's better offensively and more teams need good catchers. 

Got it.

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

So what you're saying is: Simmons was more valuable because he was younger and had more years left. But Realmuto is actually more valuable because he's better offensively and more teams need good catchers. 

Got it.

Nice straw-man.  

What I'm actually saying is that because of the current market compared to where Simmons was before, we're comparing two entities that aren't similar, but will likely end up costing a similar price. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 minute ago, Scotty@AW said:

Nice straw-man.  

What I'm actually saying is that because of the current market compared to where Simmons was before, we're comparing two entities that aren't similar, but will likely end up costing a similar price. 

OK, I'll also add that the state of the Angels farm system now compared with November 2015 is also much different. So even if they had to give up the same caliber of prospects for Realmuto as they did for Simmons, it would hurt less.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Eppler has obviously done a good job restocking the farm system.  He's the middle ground between the Stoneman era were prospects were held on to and Dipoto'ing the sytem.  If you're going to trade any of your top prospects to me a guy like Realmuto (or Simmons) is almost a best case scenario.  You can't predict the future as far as injuries go but you're getting a proven commodity who you could have in the prime of his career.  If Realmuto were on just about any other team he'd probably be getting an offer this off season to buy out his last few years of arbitration and lock  him up for 3-4 of his FA years.  If the Angels want him I wouldn't even want them to ask for a window to extend him because I think that drives up his price. Roll the dice, acquire him then make a 5 year offer which makes sense for both sides financially.  As someone else pointed out in another thread outside of Trout, Simmons, Upton and Ohtani currently on the roster according to OPS+ there really wasn't anyone else who played regularly who was league average or above.  Adding Realmuto to that group would do a lot to help the offense.      

[Second Base]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

OK, I'll also add that the state of the Angels farm system now compared with November 2015 is also much different. So even if they had to give up the same caliber of prospects for Realmuto as they did for Simmons, it would hurt less.

Sure.  I mean we could deal every single one of our top 10 prospects and still have a stronger overall system than they had.  Just because it will hurt less, doesn't make it a smart decision to over-spend. 

[UndertheHalo]

7 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Sure.  I mean we could deal every single one of our top 10 prospects and still have a stronger overall system than they had.  Just because it will hurt less, doesn't make it a smart decision to over-spend. 

Marsh, Rivas and Soriano for Realmuto.  Yes or no ?

[Jeff Fletcher]

4 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Sure.  I mean we could deal every single one of our top 10 prospects and still have a stronger overall system than they had.  Just because it will hurt less, doesn't make it a smart decision to over-spend. 

You're going to overspend, either in money or prospects, to get anyone coming off a good year. 

It's OK as long as  you can out-evaluate other teams in order to under-spend in filling other holes on the roster, like finding more Felix Peñas.

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Marsh, Rivas and Soriano for Realmuto.  Yes or no ?

Yes. 

Losing Marsh hurts, and you don't want to trade him because his value is nowhere near it's height yet.  A year or two from now he'll be MUCH more valuable than he is right now.  But because of our dearth of outfield prospects, yes, I'd include him into a deal that nets us J.T. Realmuto. 

[Second Base]

31 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

You're going to overspend, either in money or prospects, to get anyone coming off a good year. 

It's OK as long as  you can out-evaluate other teams in order to under-spend in filling other holes on the roster, like finding more Felix Peñas.

I'd rather over-spend on shorter term deals in free agency that don't have directly long lasting effects than over-spend in prospects.  

Over-spending in prospects is the worst kind of over-spending, and hurts the long term sustainability of a team. 

J.T. Realmuto will likely require the over-spending of prospects. 

[Second Base]

35 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Marsh, Rivas and Soriano for Realmuto.  Yes or no ?

But also keep in mind, chances are, Realmuto is going to cost more than that. 

[tdawg87]

39 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

But also keep in mind, chances are, Realmuto is going to cost more than that. 

Unquestionably. 

Marsh, Suarez, Jones, and Soriano.

Edited October 12, 2018 by tdawg87

[Dave Saltzer]

49 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Yes. 

Losing Marsh hurts, and you don't want to trade him because his value is nowhere near it's height yet.  A year or two from now he'll be MUCH more valuable than he is right now.  But because of our dearth of outfield prospects, yes, I'd include him into a deal that nets us J.T. Realmuto. 

I don't know about Marsh having more value a year from now than presently. Lots of teams know what we have in Marsh and would love to have him. He has been heavily scouted by lots of organizations.

 

Like you, as much as I like Marsh, I'd be willing to pay that price to get Realmuto.

 

I think this is a great idea by @Jeff Fletcher and a really good way to start of the series. I'm interested to see his other ideas.

[Angel Oracle]

Last time they traded for a Knapp, Chris walked out on them during his first season here (1978).   Granted after returning, he was just a solo HR away from pitching a perfect game against Toronto.

Seriously though, seems like another Barnhart with decent plate discipline but not much sock in his bat (career OBP and SLG% not much different).  Knapp does have 4 years club control.  Barnhart has 3 years plus an option year left on his $4 million AAV/year contract.

[DMVol]

18 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Last time they traded for a Knapp, Chris walked out on them during his first season here (1978).   Granted after returning, he was just a solo HR away from pitching a perfect game against Toronto....

You only know that because you are an old fart.....but I thought of the same thing....old farts think alike...

[Hubs]

Simmons is a good comparison as far as trade package, but again, the state of the farm then is not what it is now.

The biggest competition for Realmuto comes down to three teams: Astros, Nationals & Braves.

Astros probably wouldn't send Tucker or Whitley in a deal. Bukauskas or Paulino, JD Davis, and Alvarez is a great package from them. Two of those guys is probably more fair, but I think any of these teams are going to have to overpay.

From the Braves: Riley, Anderson, Pache? Don't know their system that well.

From the Nationals: They won't likely give up Soto or Robles, but Kieboom, Romero, Johnson?

The Angels would have to offer Canning, Thaiss, & Jones, & Marsh, or Marsh, Jones and Suarez to be competitve with those packages. The Astros and Nationals can easily offer better deals, but the Angels can top the Braves.

Note that none of these give up their top one or two prospects. Three guys out of their respective top tens though.

 

Are these over pays or under pays?

[Tank]

50 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Unquestionably. 

Marsh, Suarez, Jones, and Soriano.

don't forget fitzgerald and harbinger.

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Simmons is a good comparison as far as trade package, but again, the state of the farm then is not what it is now.

The biggest competition for Realmuto comes down to three teams: Astros, Nationals & Braves.

Astros probably wouldn't send Tucker or Whitley in a deal. Bukauskas or Paulino, JD Davis, and Alvarez is a great package from them. Two of those guys is probably more fair, but I think any of these teams are going to have to overpay.

From the Braves: Riley, Anderson, Pache? Don't know their system that well.

From the Nationals: They won't likely give up Soto or Robles, but Kieboom, Romero, Johnson?

The Angels would have to offer Canning, Thaiss, & Jones, & Marsh, or Marsh, Jones and Suarez to be competitve with those packages. The Astros and Nationals can easily offer better deals, but the Angels can top the Braves.

Note that none of these give up their top one or two prospects. Three guys out of their respective top tens though.

 

Are these over pays or under pays?

Overpay on the Angels and Nats for sure.