OC Register: Angels Offseason Options: J.T. Realmuto

[Second Base]

56 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Unquestionably. 

Marsh, Suarez, Jones, and Soriano.

That's more than I'd be willing to pay personally.  Our window of contention in my mind is 2021 and beyond, and Realmuto does not fit that time frame.  Plus losing Jose Suarez when our rotation isn't exactly rock solid seems like it could end up hurting us more than it helps. 

[tdawg87]

33 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

That's more than I'd be willing to pay personally.  Our window of contention in my mind is 2021 and beyond, and Realmuto does not fit that time frame.  Plus losing Jose Suarez when our rotation isn't exactly rock solid seems like it could end up hurting us more than it helps. 

It's a steep price, but I think Miami could realistically acquire two top 100 guys for Realmuto. Marsh is one, Jones is fringey but some will still have him in the top 100. Suarez is also fringey but I think Sandoval softens the blow. Soriano has upside but whatever.

I think it's a fair price. Lots of teams could use Realmuto and the Angels would need to put together an enticing package to get him. 

Marsh is the biggest loss, but at some point one of these guys is going to get traded. Jones is another tough loss but I feel having Rengifo softens the blow there.

I think this comes down to how fans always overvalue their own prospects and undervalue trade targets. The package I suggested is steep, but we keep Adell and Canning, which is the ultimate goal.

[ettin]

When you consider that the Marlins were asking for one of Victor Robles and Juan Soto from the Nationals you have to believe the Marlins want a top-tier pick. I am concerned that they want quality over quantity here and frankly Marsh, Jones, and Soriano are not at that level. Suarez is closer but he too is not at that level either. We are talking proximity to the Majors here as that increases a prospects value.

If you look at a rough surplus value Realmuto is somewhere in the $60M-70M range. That is usually the value of a top-tier position player prospect. Of course the Angels might entice them with a spread of good but not elite prospects and overpay like was suggested above with the Marsh, Suarez, Jones, Soriano deal but that increases the risk that Miami doesn't develop a surefire guy. I think the total value of those 4 guys would be enough to pique the Marlins interest however as it is a bit of an overpay with the 4th prospect.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

It's a steep price, but I think Miami could realistically acquire two top 100 guys for Realmuto. Marsh is one, Jones is fringey but some will still have him in the top 100. Suarez is also fringey but I think Sandoval softens the blow. Soriano has upside but whatever.

I think it's a fair price. Lots of teams could use Realmuto and the Angels would need to put together an enticing package to get him. 

Marsh is the biggest loss, but at some point one of these guys is going to get traded. Jones is another tough loss but I feel having Rengifo softens the blow there.

I think this comes down to how fans always overvalue their own prospects and undervalue trade targets. The package I suggested is steep, but we keep Adell and Canning, which is the ultimate goal.

Well, I'm attached to more than Adell and Canning as far as our prospects go.  At some price, Realmuto isn't what's best for the team.  And beyond a deal that's something like Marsh and Jones plus a reliever or utility player, it just isn't worth it anymore. 

Why pay prospects and money for Realmuto when I can pay simply money for Grandal or Ramos?  The difference between Realmuto and those guys is literally one win per season.  I'd rather just keep my prospects. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 minute ago, Scotty@AW said:

Well, I'm attached to more than Adell and Canning as far as our prospects go.  At some price, Realmuto isn't what's best for the team.  And beyond a deal that's something like Marsh and Jones plus a reliever or utility player, it just isn't worth it anymore. 

Why pay prospects and money for Realmuto when I can pay simply money for Grandal or Ramos?  The difference between Realmuto and those guys is literally one win per season.  I'd rather just keep my prospects. 

The difference between them in 2018 may have been one win, but you’re buying 19 and 20.  Also, for Ramos and Grandal, you’re going to have to buy 21 (and maybe even 22). 

How much are Grandal and Ramos going to decline because they’re older? How much more likely are they to get hurt?

Plus, Realmuto makes half of what those guys will make in 2019, so that’s money that can go to another player. 

[tdawg87]

28 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Well, I'm attached to more than Adell and Canning as far as our prospects go.  At some price, Realmuto isn't what's best for the team.  And beyond a deal that's something like Marsh and Jones plus a reliever or utility player, it just isn't worth it anymore. 

Why pay prospects and money for Realmuto when I can pay simply money for Grandal or Ramos?  The difference between Realmuto and those guys is literally one win per season.  I'd rather just keep my prospects. 

As much as I like Suarez, I don't think he is going to hold up a trade for a guy like Realmuto. Same goes for Soriano.

If Eppler can pull off a trade for him that is nothing more than Marsh, Jones, and Alvarez, then hell yes. But I think it will cost more. It always does.

 

[Second Base]

54 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The difference between them in 2018 may have been one win, but you’re buying 19 and 20.  Also, for Ramos and Grandal, you’re going to have to buy 21 (and maybe even 22). 

How much are Grandal and Ramos going to decline because they’re older? How much more likely are they to get hurt?

Plus, Realmuto makes half of what those guys will make in 2019, so that’s money that can go to another player. 

Realmuto is two years younger than Grandal and has caught more games in the last four years than Grandal or Ramos. Predicting their decline is one thing, predicting their health just isn't something you or I are qualified to do. Realmuto' chances or wearing down or getting hurt are just as high as his free agent competitors that do not cost a prospect to acquire. 

[DMVol]

22 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Realmuto is two years younger than Grandal and has caught more games in the last four years than Grandal or Ramos. Predicting their decline is one thing, predicting their health just isn't something you or I are qualified to do. Realmuto' chances or wearing down or getting hurt are just as high as his free agent competitors that do not cost a prospect to acquire. 

You could play Realmuto some at 1b, when Pujols can’t go, which could be a lot....

[Jeff Fletcher]

25 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Realmuto is two years younger than Grandal and has caught more games in the last four years than Grandal or Ramos. Predicting their decline is one thing, predicting their health just isn't something you or I are qualified to do. Realmuto' chances or wearing down or getting hurt are just as high as his free agent competitors that do not cost a prospect to acquire. 

I just don't agree with that. 

A younger player, who has been healthier in recent years, seems a significantly safer bet from a pure health standpoint, let alone the performance difference between 28-29 Realmuto and 30-31-32 Grandal.

Obviously there are costs and risks with both. I'd rather just get the better player instead of trying to get cute or over-valuing my own ability to see into the future when it comes to my prospects.

Edited October 12, 2018 by Jeff Fletcher

[Jeff Fletcher]

UPDATE: Just looked it up. There have been only 10 catchers who played 100 games at age 30 or older in the last three years.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/noZOX

Next year will be Grandal's age 30 season and Ramos' 31.

Edited October 13, 2018 by Jeff Fletcher

[ettin]

9 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I just don't agree with that. 

A younger player, who has been healthier in recent years, seems a significantly safer bet from a pure health standpoint, let alone the performance difference between 28-29 Realmuto and 30-31-32 Grandal.

Obviously there are costs and risks with both. I'd rather just get the better player instead of trying to get cute or over-valuing my own ability to see into the future when it comes to my prospects.

Statistically players who have had a previous injury are at an increased risk for re-injury from most literature I have read.

Examples: 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/19653/baseball-therapy-what-really-predicts-pitcher-injuries/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30290986

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article_legacy.php?articleid=9933 (aging curve)

There is certainly evidence that younger is better and previous injuries generally lead to recurring or even new injuries. There is also an argument to be made about the best application of resources too but to each their own.

[Second Base]

12 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

UPDATE: Just looked it up. There have been only 10 catchers who played 100 games at age 30 or older in the last three years.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/noZOX

Next year will be Grandal's age 30 season and Ramos' 31.

Skewed. The vast majority of players are in their 20's. Now if you could've said the ratio of starting catchers under 30 that went a full season without injury was greater than the ratio of starting catchers that went a full season without injury over the age of 30, then you'd really have something.

I just looked this up. There were more starting catchers age 20-29 that were injured last year than there were injured catchers over the age of 50 in the major leagues. Sounds to me like Sandy Alomar Jr. needs to come out of retirement.

I'm being facetious of course, but the logic applies. 

[Second Base]

33 minutes ago, DMVol said:

You could play Realmuto some at 1b, when Pujols can’t go, which could be a lot....

Grandal has also played a lot of 1B, and again, wouldn't cost a prospect. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Skewed. The vast majority of players are in their 20's. Now if you could've said the ratio of starting catchers under 30 that went a full season without injury was greater than the ratio of starting catchers that went a full season without injury over the age of 30, then you'd really have something.

I just looked this up. There were more starting catchers age 20-29 that were injured last year than there were injured catchers over the age of 50 in the major leagues. Sounds to me like Sandy Alomar Jr. needs to come out of retirement.

I'm being facetious of course, but the logic applies. 

Why do you think that is?

My stat about the age wasn’t necessarily related to health, but also performance. 

Catchers just don’t stick around at that age. It’s too demanding physically. 

[totdprods]

Yadier is the gold standard of this generation of catchers, and he took a big step back around 30-31.

[DMVol]

45 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Grandal has also played a lot of 1B, and again, wouldn't cost a prospect. 

I’d love to have either but Realmuto is a little younger and will be cheaper, for a couple of years anyway....but the prospects are a factor, for sure....

[Jeff Fletcher]

 

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

 

Well timed 

[Blarg]

Add catchers interference and unable to catch a throw from the outfield and he is pretty much off the Angels radar. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

If we got realmuto, and he sucks, i look forward to AO coining him realputo.

[UndertheHalo]

35 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

If we got realmuto, and he sucks, i look forward to AO coining him realputo.

I mean, he doesn’t even really have to suck for AO to mix that in.  If he’s bad for like 2 weeks AO will be all over him.  See Justin Upton. 

Love ya AO. 

[tdawg87]

37 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

If we got realmuto, and he sucks, i look forward to AO coining him realputo.

A bit too creative for AO. Might I suggest Fakemuto? Or even RealZero.

[tdawg87]

Yasmany Groundouts

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

5 hours ago, totdprods said:

Yadier is the gold standard of this generation of catchers, and he took a big step back around 30-31.

Joe Mauer quit being a full time catcher at 28, and caught his last game at 30 (75 games). He has played 1B ever since, except for what may have been his last game ever. He caught 1 pitch and left the game on the seasons's final game in front of a cheering home crowd.

[Docwaukee]

two years of control.  that's the sticking point for me.  I'm giving up some of our top prospects for this type of player when there aren't 4 or 5 other holes to fill after a .500 season where our competition within the division is winning 95-100 games.  

Yes, I understand that the Astros aren't going to win 100 games forever.  Yes I am aware that the A's likely overachieved.  

My point is that this team in it's current state isn't ready for that type of move.  While we likely 'won' the Simmons trade, there's an argument to be made that while he's been great, there hasn't been enough around him other than Trout to get us where we want to be and therefore, his time here has been somewhat wasted.   Would the team be better off with 25yo Sean Newcomb controlled through 2023 than two more years of a 29 yo Simmons?  

I fear that giving up significant prospect currency for Realmuto is even more risky.  If you do this, you add and even greater sense of urgency to the 2019 and 2020 seasons and decrease your ability to create a sustainable winner for year 2021-2023 which would be Trout's 29-31yo seasons with us should he sign an extension.  I also think our chances improve after 2019 when Houston is essentially forced to turn over their entire rotation after this year and next.  

I like Realmuto, but the timing is off.  Would that mentality have changed if Richards was healthy and signed to an extension, Ohtani was healthy and going to pitch and fewer pitching injuries elsewhere?  Maybe, but we are where we are.  

This thread has also made some very good points about Grandal and Ramos.  Anything more than a 2yr deal for either seems ill advised and they're both going to get more than that.  

A bold prediction for the offseason is that the Yanks will trade Gary Sanchez and then trade for Realmuto.  Or they'll move Sanchez to 1b unless they believe in Luke Voit.  

I think Eppler might view the catcher position like he views pen arms.  The mid and upper tiers are overvalued and the lower tiers are undervalued.  Meaning that he'll acquire or sign a Maldonado type where the players defense and game calling are undervalued and he can get them on the cheap.  We may even go with what we've got in Arcia and Briceno which is less likely.  I think we'll see someone new but I don't think it will be anyone high profile.