Jim Callis: Based off scouting grades, Ohtani = Darvish as a Pitcher, Springer as a Hitter

[KevinJ14]

The only position prospect who comes within five points of Ohtani as a hitter, slugger and runner is George Springer(2014 preseason: 55 bat, 70 power, 60 speed, 60 arm, 60 defense). Both players came with some swing-and-miss concerns, though that didn't stop Springer from becoming a force for the reigning champions World Series champion Astros. Ohtani has clearly superior arm strength and Springer is a better defender, but that comparison is interesting -- as is considering a combination of Darvish and Springer wrapped up in one player.

The rest of the article is here:

https://www.mlb.com/news/tool-twins-how-prospects-compare-with-stars/c-265476304

[Chris]

[Second Base]

I pictured Gerrit Cole on the mound and Eric Thames at the plate.

[DCAngelsFan]

Can't wait to see this guy - but I'm not sure about that "65" forkball - that thing is pure evil (when it's "on", at any rate.)

But, oh, man, I  just had to look down the page to see Vladimir Jr ... 

I don't think I'd said "eff you, Dipoto" today, but seeing that took care of that ... 

An 80 bat??  An 80-effin bat??  

meh ...

 

[T.G.]

Winner, winner... chicken dinner.

[Taylor]

[m0nkey]

If it’s even remotely accurate down the line, the Angels obviously have the best player in baseball

[Revad]

The big O.

[Turd Ferguson]

21 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

If it’s even remotely accurate down the line, the Angels obviously have the best player in baseball

And the good news is that even if it isn't accurate, the Angels still have the best player in baseball.

[ten ocho recon scout]

21 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

If it’s even remotely accurate down the line, the Angels obviously have the best player in baseball

They do. Trout.

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

I pictured Gerrit Cole on the mound and Eric Thames at the plate.

Ohtani's secondary pitches are much better per the scouting reports than Cole's.  Much MUCH better. 

[Chuck]

49 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

If it’s even remotely accurate down the line, the Angels obviously have the best player in baseball

You mean, the best two players in baseball. 

[Angelsjunky]

The question is whether he can do both--be Darvish and Springer--at the same time. I think he can do Darvish, but can he hit like Springer when he's only getting ~250 PA a year?

I wouldn't be surprised if his hitting numbers fluctuate quite a bit, year to year.

Anyhow, I suspect he's going to be even better than Darvish, with ERAs below 3.00 most years.

[ettin]

A Lady Freak on the streets and a Lady Freak in the sheets.

[Chuck]

Jim Callis is usually pretty conservative and has been in the minor league scouting/analyst business for a long time.

His grades and scouting on Ohtani is really good to read. I'm excited! 

[Hubs]

 

7 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

They would have the most well rounded player (mainly because no one pitches and hits), assuming he reaches the potential of both Darvish and Springer, but Ohtani still would not provide the same overall value as Trout. You would think so....but even if you combined the WAR from each of Darvish's and Springer's best seasons in their career, they still would not equal three of Trout's best WAR seasons. And this is with Darvish and Springer playing full seasons to combine to make up those WAR totals against Trout, who obviously is just one guy.Trout poops out his WAR totals on the regular. Ohtani won't be able to provide a Trout like WAR because he will not be able to get enough total reps both ways. They are going to be cautious with him, which puts some dent in his value. It's nice to know what he can have if he reaches his potential, but he still wouldn't be as valuable as Trout because...well, Trout is other worldly. 

I don't actually like the Darvish comp. It's lazy, as he is Japanese, so Darvish is Japanese, lets compare them.

Here for reference were Darvish's grades then and (Future) in 2011 before his debut by the site Minor League Ball.

Motion	50 (50)
Fastball	65 (65)
Curveball	60 (70)
Slider	50 (65)
Splitter	60 (70)
Cut Fastball	50 (60)
Command	50 (60)

And From the article above:  "We give him an 80 fastball, 65 slider and splitter, 50 curveball and changeup, 50 control) and as a position player (50 bat, 70 power, 65 speed, 80 arm, 50 defense)?"

I think Richards is a good comp because of the fastball, but an 80 fastball is ridiculous.

And Springer is really good.

I doubt Ohtani will end up a 10 WAR player. Especially in his first season.

If he is the everyday DH, then he may be able to put up a 5.0 WAR season. But it wouldn't be easy. And a 5.0 WAR is basically playing full-time. WAR takes into account position, and a centerfielder/outfielder like Springer is more valuable than a DH, something like 20 runs more valuable to start.

So, realistically, if he puts up 7-8 WAR total in his first season, with 3 as a hitter and 5 as a pitcher, we'd all be elated.

He may eventually reach the 10 WAR threshold, but that would mean a 6 or 7 WAR as a pitcher and 4-5 as a hitter, unless he is a full-time DH, when then he could put up the numbers closer to 5.0 on both sides.

Here's the top WAR for pitchers from 2017:

1.	Kluber • CLE	8.0
2.	Scherzer • WSN	7.3
3.	Gonzalez • WSN	6.6
4.	Strasburg • WSN	6.5
5.	Verlander • 2TM	6.4
6.	Greinke • ARI	6.0
7.	Sale • BOS	6.0
8.	Stroman • TOR	5.8
9.	Carrasco • CLE	5.4
10.	Severino • NYY	5.3

And from 2016

1.	Verlander • DET	6.6
2.	Kluber • CLE	6.4
3.	Scherzer • WSN	6.2
4.	Cueto • SFG	5.6
5.	Kershaw • LAD	5.6
6.	Roark • WSN	5.5
7.	Tanaka • NYY	5.4
8.	Martinez • STL	5.4
9.	Lester • CHC	5.3
10.	Syndergaard • NYM	5.3

 

So he may be able to be that valuable as a pitcher, but as a DH would need to be David Ortiz level DH to get to a 5 WAR season, and he'd have to DH every day he doesn't pitch.

 

As his pitching tools are so good, we often think if he picks one side to focus on it would be pitching. But if he is Trout-like with the Bat, he would be much more valuable as an every day player. Everyone would grab a 60 rated position player over a 60 rated starter, so if he is an elite hitter it would cause a lot of problems. Good problems, but...

[Hubs]

Here is a good article on basically the same premise. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21678789/which-shohei-ohtani-most-fun-shohei-ohtani

Check out the hitting comp on numbers 1, 2, and 4. Spoiler: It's Springer.

And I just absolutely love #1:

1. 80th percentile hitter (Springer), 80th percentile pitcher (Carrasco)

Carrasco and Springer wouldn't be Ohtani's ceiling, by the way. In a fifth of our universes, he's this good or better. His career year as a pitcher might be good enough to win the Cy Young Award. His career year as a hitter might be good enough to win a Silver Slugger. He'd be too good on both sides of the field to waste even a single pitch or plate appearance that he could physically handle. There will never again be a baseball player as famous as this version of Ohtani would be. Mike Trout would cry from jealousy. I'd cry from the joy of it all.

[Hubs]

And if he ended up in that 80th percentile in both hitting and pitching, or better...He'd likely learn to hit on days he pitches, and on days after and before, because hit bat is just too valuable to have him sitting.

[Erstad Grit]

That's great. 

Currently I believe in him as a pitcher but I'm skeptical about him as a hitter. I hope I'm wrong.  

[NorCal Halo]

I  Eppler!

[Troll Daddy]

I’m not convinced he can hit ML pitching ... prove me wrong 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

Ohtani's secondary pitches are much better per the scouting reports than Cole's.  Much MUCH better. 

Cole's offspeed pitches were considerably better before pitching with injury.

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

I’m not convinced he can hit ML pitching ... prove me wrong 

He needs to prove everyone wrong. But like Trout, he has a world of talent.

[Chuck]

1 minute ago, Scotty@AW said:

Cole's offspeed pitches were considerably better before pitching with injury.

I mean out of college. He had a great fastball, good curve, command was OK. 

[Revad]

3 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

They would have the most well rounded player (mainly because no one pitches and hits as a regular), assuming he reaches the potential of both Darvish and Springer, but Ohtani still would not provide the same overall value as Trout. You would think so....but even if you combined the WAR from each of Darvish's and Springer's best seasons in their career, they still would not equal three of Trout's best WAR seasons. And this is with Darvish and Springer playing full seasons to combine to make up those WAR totals against Trout, who obviously is just one guy.Trout poops out his WAR totals on the regular. Ohtani won't be able to provide a Trout like WAR because he will not be able to get enough total reps both ways. They are going to be cautious with him, which puts some dent in his value. It's nice to know what he can have if he reaches his potential, but he still wouldn't be as valuable as Trout because...well, Trout is other worldly. 

Totally agree.  Ohtani is a gift from heaven and please god don't let us mess this up.