Rumor Central: Angels preferred destination for Mike Moustakas?

[eaterfan]

3 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Hamilton was just a shit show. I'd still take a chance on a guy who is capable of hitting 30+ homeruns than a guy that can't hit his body weight.

What second baseman is hitting 30+ HRs?

[Angelsfan1984]

4 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

What second baseman is hitting 30+ HRs?

When did I say 2nd baseman? I'm talking generalities. Guys who can hit 30+ homeruns don't come around every day. Then to find one at a position of need and isn't 35+ years old...those are the guys you give big contracts to. What is the difference in getting 3 guys who make 5 million but can't play for shit vs 1 guy who makes 15 that can contribute? Give me the guy who can get it done 100 times out of 100. Sure if you want to allocate your money to different positions that's one thing but don't shop at the 99 cent store hoping to get your Gucci bag.

[WeaverFever]

5 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

When did I say 2nd baseman? I'm talking generalities. Guys who can hit 30+ homeruns don't come around every day. Then to find one at a position of need and isn't 35+ years old...those are the guys you give big contracts to. What is the difference in getting 3 guys who make 5 million but can't play for shit vs 1 guy who makes 15 that can contribute? Give me the guy who can get it done 100 times out of 100. Sure if you want to allocate your money to different positions that's one thing but don't shop at the 99 cent store hoping to get your Gucci bag.

This seems to be the general consensus on this forum. We seem to want guys that can’t play that are cheap, over guys that can play that will cost some money. This is my opinion but I want to win, and a Moose, and or Santana might do this for us. You don’t see the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, or Red Sox picking up reclamation products. Why should we? 

[AngelStew43]

If we sign him, and he reverts to 22 hr and 75 rbi, it would still be better than what we have been getting from 3B.  We are also taking the same chance with Upton. 

If he regresses at all, our production in LF will still be better than what we have been getting in the last six years.

 

[eaterfan]

1 minute ago, Zardawg16 said:

This seems to be the general consensus on this forum. We seem to want guys that can’t play that are cheap, over guys that can play that will cost some money. This is my opinion but I want to win, and a Moose, and or Santana might do this for us. You don’t see the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, or Red Sox picking up reclamation products. Why should we? 

No one who hits FA is a guarantee. 

[eaterfan]

2 minutes ago, AngelStew43 said:

If we sign him, and he reverts to 22 hr and 75 rbi, it would still be better than what we have been getting from 3B.  We are also taking the same chance with Upton. 

If he regresses at all, our production in LF will still be better than what we have been getting in the last six years.

 

If he does that then we're locked into that for 4-5 years. 

BTW, Albert Pujols put up 23 HR and 101 RBI last season for comparison. And a -1.8 WAR.

23 HR would be the second highest of Moustakas's career.

[WeaverFever]

I might be again part of the minority, but why not take a chance on these guys? They are less risk than Hamilton, or Albert were. Or what Machado, and Arenado will be. We want Mike Trout here, and I assume he wants to win. We need guys that will put the Angels in a position to do so. 

[eaterfan]

1 minute ago, Zardawg16 said:

I might be again part of the minority, but why not take a chance on these guys? They are less risk than Hamilton, or Albert were. Or what Machado, and Arenado will be. We want Mike Trout here, and I assume he wants to win. We need guys that will put the Angels in a position to do so. 

It's less financial risk than Pujols, but I actually see Moustakas and Pujols as very similar players. I think Mous is about to go over the Pujols ledge. And his ledge wasn't as high to start with.

[GrittyVeterans]

22 minutes ago, Zardawg16 said:

This seems to be the general consensus on this forum. We seem to want guys that can’t play that are cheap, over guys that can play that will cost some money. This is my opinion but I want to win, and a Moose, and or Santana might do this for us. You don’t see the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, or Red Sox picking up reclamation products. Why should we? 

Actually, the Dodgers pick up reclamation projects all the time. Look at what Justin Turner and Chris Taylor were before they went there and got good

[Hubs]

45 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

What second baseman is hitting 30+ HRs?

Cozart hit 24 at SS. Walker's high is 23. 

[CanadianHalo]

17 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

It's less financial risk than Pujols, but I actually see Moustakas and Pujols as very similar players. I think Mous is about to go over the Pujols ledge. And his ledge wasn't as high to start with.

Well by this logic we might as well sign anyone.

21 minutes ago, Zardawg16 said:

I might be again part of the minority, but why not take a chance on these guys? They are less risk than Hamilton, or Albert were. Or what Machado, and Arenado will be. We want Mike Trout here, and I assume he wants to win. We need guys that will put the Angels in a position to do so. 

You don’t take a chance on guys who may cost you 60-90mill. You take a chance on guys who come on 1-2 year deals. 

You guys are talking like 38 home runs is the new norm for Moustakas when his career numbers say otherwise.

Even if he hit another 38 homers, if he’s bringing that .314 OBP with him then we’re in trouble. We already have Pujols, we can’t afford to roll the dice on anyone. Moose has a .234 batting average with runners in scoring last year too. 

Moose is a huge risk that we’re just not in a position to take. Remember Jeff Fletcher’s post the other day talking about bad baseball decisions? Well this would be one you would add to the list and then complain about in a year or two when we need to penny pinch because we’re paying Moose 15 mill

[eaterfan]

4 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

Well by this logic we might as well sign anyone.

You don’t take a chance on guys who may cost you 60-90mill. You take a chance on guys who come on 1-2 year deals. 

You guys are talking like 38 home runs is the new norm for Moustakas when his career numbers say otherwise.

Even if he hit another 38 homers, if he’s bringing that .314 OBP with him then we’re in trouble. We already have Pujols, we can’t afford to roll the dice on anyone. Moose has a .234 batting average with runners in scoring last year too. 

Moose is a huge risk that we’re just not in a position to take. Remember Jeff Fletcher’s post the other day talking about bad baseball decisions? Well this would be one you would add to the list and then complain about in a year or two when we need to penny pinch because we’re paying Moose 15 mill

No. I'm saying don't spend $60 - $90 million on a big baseball risk. Spend $20-30 for a few years or $10 million for one, like Maybin.

[Hubs]

Moustakas has had two different careers. His 2011-2014 and his 2015-2017 numbers. They are so vastly different, you can't use a mean average. He's more likely to give you a .325-330 OBP and an .800+ OPS with a high .280's BA and 25-30 HR. That is a legit left handed threat, who mans a position of need. Had he not torn his ACL in 2016, his defense would likely be rated higher and he'd probably be coming off three consecutive 3-5 WAR seasons. And he'd cost a lot more. 

I just don't see the hate. Now I don't want to pay him 20M per season over 7 seasons, but I don't shy away from a longer deal at a lower AAV. The MLBTR guys have him going to the Braves at 5/85. Now that's I think high, but he is also only 29. Younger players tend to make more in Free Agency. 

Also, I like Cozart's defense, and hope they can get him or Walker at 2nd, but Walker is the steady play and Cozart is a risky one. One has done this for years and is just good. The other had a career year at age 31. There is more risk there than signing a guy like Moustakas, just due to age alone. It's a little harder for me to believe that Cozart just figured it out at 31, versus Moustakas figuring it out in 2015 at age 26.

And I like Carlos Santana, but they need 3B help and 2B help more than 1B/DH help. If Santana still caught part time, then he'd be a huge get. As it is, he is the second best guy on the market at 1st and would be a really nice get.

I want help at all three positions, and I'm sure at least one is going to come via trade. I do expect Eppler to address all three though.

 

 

[Hubs]

Also, past performance is just one way to judge these guys, let's maybe not get hung up on the 2017 numbers like you're playing fantasy baseball. The future is unknown and you hope for better than last year not the same exact numbers as last year. Moustakas had 2 great seasons, and I'd rather he repeated 2015 with a lower HR total than 2017 with his career number. I want Cozart because of his 2017 numbers however, but he and Frazier both have had years recently in the .220 BA, which is not good at all. So maybe risk just comes with all free agents, but at the bottom line they only cost you money. When you trade for an established player, they cost you money and prospect currency. 

[eaterfan]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Moustakas has had two different careers. His 2011-2014 and his 2015-2017 numbers. They are so vastly different, you can't use a mean average. He's more likely to give you a .325-330 OBP and an .800+ OPS with a high .280's BA and 25-30 HR. That is a legit left handed threat, who mans a position of need. Had he not torn his ACL in 2016, his defense would likely be rated higher and he'd probably be coming off three consecutive 3-5 WAR seasons. And he'd cost a lot more. 

I just don't see the hate. Now I don't want to pay him 20M per season over 7 seasons, but I don't shy away from a longer deal at a lower AAV. The MLBTR guys have him going to the Braves at 5/85. Now that's I think high, but he is also only 29. Younger players tend to make more in Free Agency. 

Also, I like Cozart's defense, and hope they can get him or Walker at 2nd, but Walker is the steady play and Cozart is a risky one. One has done this for years and is just good. The other had a career year at age 31. There is more risk there than signing a guy like Moustakas, just due to age alone. It's a little harder for me to believe that Cozart just figured it out at 31, versus Moustakas figuring it out in 2015 at age 26.

And I like Carlos Santana, but they need 3B help and 2B help more than 1B/DH help. If Santana still caught part time, then he'd be a huge get. As it is, he is the second best guy on the market at 1st and would be a really nice get.

I want help at all three positions, and I'm sure at least one is going to come via trade. I do expect Eppler to address all three though.

 

 

I don't much care about his OPS. It undervalues OBP, overvalues SLG, and doesn't factor in how parks play.

The bottom line is that his OPS+ has never topped 120. Even in his two great seasons. IMO he's a very similar player to late career Albert Pujols. And look at Albert Pujol's 2016 season to see what a best case scenario probably is for Moustakas. Both players rely on contact and AVG to drive their OBP. You noticed Pujols start to walk less and strike out more. Moustakas is doing the same thing. You noticed Pujols swing out of the zone more, Moustakas is doing the same thing. You notice Pujols miss on his swings out of the zone more often. Moustakas is doing the same thing. The power is still there, but they have to start swinging earlier to generate it. That's where I see Moustakas. Combined with the steadily declining defense (dWAR and UZR) which we saw from Pujols, and it's too tough to ignore. 

2016 Pujols: 31 HRs, 19 2Bs, .268/.333/.457 triple slash line 1.4 WAR. 113 OPS+

Is that any different than what we'd hope for from Moustakas? That would be his 2nd highest HR total ever (significantly), 2nd highest OBP ever (significantly), and his 3rd highest OPS+ (barely behind 2nd). 

Pujols was hampered in 2016 by a -1.8 dWAR. But what are we expecting from Mous who has been on the steady decline as was at -.7 last year?

What happens in 2 years when he is putting up -1.8 dWAR and has to swing even earlier to get his 20 HR power?

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, eaterfan said:

I don't much care about his OPS. It undervalues OBP, overvalues SLG, and doesn't factor in how parks play.

The bottom line is that his OPS+ has never topped 120. Even in his two great seasons. IMO he's a very similar player to late career Albert Pujols. And look at Albert Pujol's 2016 season to see what a best case scenario probably is for Moustakas. Both players rely on contact and AVG to drive their OBP. You noticed Pujols start to walk less and strike out more. Moustakas is doing the same thing. You noticed Pujols swing out of the zone more, Moustakas is doing the same thing. You notice Pujols miss on his swings out of the zone more often. Moustakas is doing the same thing. The power is still there, but they have to start swinging earlier to generate it. That's where I see Moustakas. Combined with the steadily declining defense (dWAR and UZR) which we saw from Pujols, and it's too tough to ignore. 

2016 Pujols: 31 HRs, 19 2Bs, .268/.333/.457 triple slash line 1.4 WAR. 113 OPS+

Is that any different than what we'd hope for from Moustakas? That would be his 2nd highest HR total ever (significantly), 2nd highest OBP ever (significantly), and his 3rd highest OPS+ (barely behind 2nd). 

Pujols was hampered in 2016 by a -1.8 dWAR. But what are we expecting from Mous who has been on the steady decline as was at -.7 last year?

What happens in 2 years when he is putting up -1.8 dWAR and has to swing even earlier to get his 20 HR power?

Comparing a late 30's Pujols with a guy who was coming off ACL surgery isn't exactly fair. IMO, he's more likely to repeat 2015 than 2017, when he has fully recovered from surgery.

And if he does that for 4-5 years, why are we complaining? And he'd likely be on the books for 10M less than Pujols.

[eaterfan]

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Comparing a late 30's Pujols with a guy who was coming off ACL surgery isn't exactly fair. IMO, he's more likely to repeat 2015 than 2017, when he has fully recovered from surgery.

And if he does that for 4-5 years, why are we complaining? And he'd likely be on the books for 10M less than Pujols.

If he did that for 4-5 years I would be thrilled. I just see the walk rate declining, the strike out rate increasing, the swinging out of the zone increasing and the making contact out of the zone increasing.  To me that screams "Declining reaction time" and thus into the decline phase of the career. And unlike Pujols, he doesn't have far to drop before he becomes a below average hitter. His peak was only 19% above average. Can he hang on for a few more years? Yeah, but I wouldn't be he can do it for more than 3. Plus, I don't see that defense recovering or even holding steady. I think DH or 1B are where he ends up. a 1B who is hitting 15% better than league average isn't great. 

I have no problem with a 3 year $40 million deal. If he puts up a Pujols 16 season next year and the year after that that's about what a win is worth on the open market. The Angels can eat a year after that if he isn't performing or get a decent deal if he is.

[Vlad27Trout27]

It all depends on the price, if it's 5/85 simplify no, but if it's drops to 4/55 Than maybe. we just have to see and wait things out for now.

[Hubs]

He's going to get 5 years. A 3 year deal isn't going to happen. 

[eaterfan]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

He's going to get 5 years. A 3 year deal isn't going to happen. 

Unless the price is $10 per year then I hope it's a pass from Eppler.

[Vlad27Trout27]

15 minutes ago, Hubs said:

He's going to get 5 years. A 3 year deal isn't going to happen. 

This how I think his contract may be constructed.

2018(29)- 13 mil

2019(30)-15 mil 

2020(31)- 16 mil ( opp out)

2021(32)- 16 mil

2022(33)-  16 mil (team option)

[Dtwncbad]

I am comfortable going on record predicting Moos does not get a 5 yr deal.

[Vlad27Trout27]

only problem that i have with giving moose over 60 mil is that we lose a 2nd round pick but also 500K in the international pools. We've got 3 picks in the top 100 next year but that 500K is a bit hard to swallow for a guys that only had 1 Elite year in his career..   

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

only problem that i have with giving moose over 60 mil is that we lose a 2nd round pick but also 500K in the international pools. We've got 3 picks in the top 100 next year but that 500K is a bit hard to swallow for a guys that only had 1 Elite year in his career..   

Which year was his elite year? '15 or '17?

[Vlad27Trout27]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Which year was his elite year? '15 or '17?

15. 4.4 War compered to last year which was 1.8 war.