Preliminary Thoughts on the Offseason

[Angelsjunky]

Is it too soon to talk hot stove? I know, the Angels are still in the wildcard race, but I think we can see relatively clearly what the team's biggest holes are, and thus speculate a bit about what steps Eppler might take to move this team closer to contention in 2018 and beyond.

What follows assumes that no major deals are made in the next month, which is far from a foregone conclusion. It may be that Eppler fills one or more of these holes before the deadline. In fact, this just supports the idea that now is a good time to start talking 2018 because any moves Eppler makes now will impact next year's team.

Here's a list of 2017-18 Free Agents.

Let's start with some basics:

Current Angels Eligible for 2017-18 Free Agency: Cameron Maybin, Yunel Escobar, Danny Espinosa, Ben Revere, Cliff Pennington, Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Chavez, Bud Norris, Yusmeiro Petit,  David Hernandez, Huston Street, Andrew Bailey

As you can see, that's three of the team's nine starting lineup, two-fifths of the current starting rotation, and most of the team's relievers (with Bailey on the DL all year, so not really counting).

LINEUP

This leaves us with the following roster, including players signed through 2018 or controlled via arbitration, with possible internal solutions in italics and players who are average or above in bold, and thus not really needing consideration for upgrade:

C: Maldonado (arb), Carlos Perez

1B: Cron (arb), Valbuena ($8MM)

2B: Kaleb Cowart, David Fletcher

SS: Simmons

3B: Cowart, Marte

LF: Young

CF: Trout

RF: Calhoun

DH: Pujols

Lineup Positions to Upgrade: 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, DH

Now the Angels won't displace Pujols, so let's strike DH off the list. It is possible that Cowart gets a chance at either 2B or 3B, so one of those two could be filled from within, with Fletcher and Marte as backup options. 1B has been a disaster this year - traditionally the biggest offensive position has yielded a .217/.284/.334 batting line this year through July 2nd. Chances are one or both of Cron and Valbuena will improve to at least decency, but it is an area that Eppler could definitely upgrade, especially given that prospect Matt Thaiss is stalling out a bit in A+ at age 22.

And then there's left field. Eric Young had a nice first couple weeks, but has returned to his bench level play - he's not an option as a starter.

So the Angels need to sign between two and four starting position players, depending upon whether they want to upgrade at 1B and if they trust Cowart with a starting job. But it will definitely be LF, one or both of 2B/3B, and possibly--but less likely--1B. Yonder Alonso and Eric Hosmer are probably the best available 1B free agents, but unless the Angels have soured on Thaiss, they probably won't sign a long-term contract. Coupled with Valbuena/Cron, I see 1B being quite unlikely.

At second base, two names surface: Neil Walker and good old Howie Kendrick. If the Angels don't want to play Cowart, but see Fletcher as a possible solution in the long-term, I could see a one-year deal for Howie. Walker would probably require multiple years.

At third base, Mike Moustakas is the big name, and will probably receive one of the biggest contracts this offseason, requiring 5+ years and $18+MM per year. If the Royals fall out of contention, "Moose" could be traded.

In left field, JD Martinez can mash and will earn a huge contract because of it, but he can't field, and the last thing the Angels need is another 30-something DH. Still, he'd be the best hitter Trout has ever had hitting behind him, with the possible exception of Pujols in 2012. The most likely option remains Maybin, though, who gives the Angels a solid leadoff hitter and probably won't command more than a three year deal, so is a good option until the Angels' wealth of outfield talent starts arriving in 2020.

STARTING ROTATION

Starters: Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoemaker, Tropeano, Meyer, Ramirez, Bridwell, Barria, Long, Smith, Scribner

The starting rotation has been the team's biggest weakness this year, with no pitcher providing more than adequate #4-5 performance. On the other hand, the starter ERA isn't horrible at 4.33, just not good or even quite average. Going into 2018, the biggest problem is that the Angels have a lot of depth on paper, but almost every pitcher presents a significant question mark (which is why none are in bold face). In fact, it is crazy to think that the pitcher with the most probability of starting the year in the rotation is probably Alex Meyer, who has produced a 3.74 ERA in 11 starts and shown flashes of #2-3 potential, if he can get his walk rate under control (currently 6/9IP).

One thing we can say with some degree of certainty is that Chavez and Nolasco won't be back. After that, all bets are off. If everyone is healthy, the rotation will likely be Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoemaker, Meyer, with Tropeano starting in AAA and Ramirez and Bridwell either in long relief, traded, or in AAA. But that also assumes Eppler doesn't look to free agency, and with such a questionable rotation he's likely to sign at least one, probably two, bonafide major league starters.

Prospect Jaime Barria is also making a strong case for him making the Angels rotation next year. After producing a 2.48 ERA in 11 A+ starts, he has been even better in AA: 0.76 ERA in his first four starts. Forget about 2017, we might see Barria in September, especially if the Angels are out of contention. Best of all, Barria is very young - he turns 21 in July 18. Still, chances are he isn't part of the rotation for another year or so.

Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta are the biggest free agent names. Darvish is having the better year and seems to have settled in as a #2 type post-TJ surgery, but he'll probably command a big salary and has some risk: he hasn't started more than 22 games since 2013, although presumably will this year (he's at 17). Arrieta's performance has dropped steeply in each of the last two years, although his peripherals still look good. He reminds me a bit of latter-day Dan Haren.

There are a bunch of lesser, and less risky and expensive, options, so with the Angels potential depth, chances are Eppler goes for one or two of those rather than a big fish.

BULLPEN

The big revelation this year has been the bullpen, which includes strong performance from a number of players: Blake Parker, Bud Norris, Yusmeiro Petit, David Hernandez, Cam Bedrosian when healthy, and Keynan Middleton. The bad news is that the first four are all free agents and will earn good money after their strong 2017 campaigns. I could see Eppler signing two of them, say Parker and Petit, to go along with Cam and Keynan, maybe another free agent and one or two starters filling out the bullpen. Unless the Angels fall behind in the next few weeks, it is unlikely Eppler trades any of them, which is too bad as they have solid value on the market right now.

Bullpen: Parker (arb), Bedrosian, Middleton, Paredes, Morin, ?

SUMMARY

We're going to see quite a turnover this offseason. The other factor I did not mention is that with Hamilton money coming off the books, Eppler will have a bit more spending money, although Hamilton's salary is partially offset but Trout's increase by $14MM.

The Angels have significant holes to fill in the lineup, rotation, and bullpen. The only area of the three that has plenty of possible in-house solutions is the rotation. One route Eppler could go is to cross his fingers with the rotation, and focus on bulking up the lineup. He could then re-sign one or two of his proven veteran relievers (Parker, Petit, Norris, Hernandez) and try to strike gold again with cheaper options and/or audition rotation depth in the bullpen. One thing I don't see him doing is making a big splash just to make a big splash, and after Wells-Pujols-Hamilton, presumably Moreno is on board with a more modest approach.

One big reason to go modest this offseason is that the 2018-19 free agent crop is particularly deep, with some mega-stars in the mix: Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. I don't see the Angels going after Harper unless they don't think they can extend Trout, but Machado--assuming he rebounds from his off year--would be an intriguing option, filling a long-time hole for the Angels at 3B and giving the Angels a second superstar to pair with Trout. He also gives Moreno a younger Latino star to make up for Pujols. But let's not get ahead of ourselves: Machado will likely require something like 8/$350MM (or more).

That said, while I have no idea what players Eppler will target, my basic prediction is that he continues his approach of going small-to-medium, and avoids and large-to-huge free agent signings this offseason. In the process, he will surprise us with (hopefully) more of his now trademark "growers": players who end up being better than what we thought we were getting. Eppler does seem better at assessing pitching talent (thus the bullpen), but although a couple of his hitting acquisitions have been duds (Espinosa, Valbuena, Revere), some of them have turned out at least pretty well (Escobar, Maybin, Young, Maldonado).

The Angels have a wealth of outfield and pitching talent in the low minors, which will require another year or two to get a good gauge on upside for these players, and probably three or four to actually see them graduate to the majors. Though Eppler will try to keep the team competitive, 2018-19 are transitional years and the most important goal Eppler has (or should have, imo) is to return the team to perennial contention. With what I've seen so far, he is well on his way. The organization is, in my opinion, in the best shape its been in for five or more years, with a quickly improving farm system. But it will need time and continued careful maintenance. In Eppler We Trust.

[Dtwncbad]

I am afraid of Darvish.  We haven't done very well buying "stars" away from Texas.

[tdawg87]

I believe Maybin needs to be a priority. I don't see him getting more than 4 guaranteed years. Plus he seems to enjoy playing here, though that's purely speculation. J.D. Martinez would be fantastic, but I agree he's going to command a pretty big contract. I see him possibly getting what Hamilton got. But at least 5/100. 

I'm also warming more and more to the idea of bringing back Escobar. He's going to be 35 next year, so he's not getting more than 2 years. MAYBE 3. Moustakus scares the shit out of me. He's a good defender, but he hits left handed. For a guy who relies on pop and doesn't get on base very well, I could totally see him being a total bust coming to Angels Stadium. 

Darvish is going to get a huge contract and his health is a serious issue. Arrieta is also going to get a huge contract and his talent is a serious issue. The only SP I'd be even remotely interested in is Lance Lynn, but again, huge contract. 

I trust Eppler with the bullpen. Honestly I hope he brings back Norris and Parker.

[SigBaby]

I agree, bring back Maybin, Parker, and Yunel. I'd love Carlos Santana at 1b 

[totdprods]

I don't think Blake Parker is even arb eligible yet. He only has two years of service time.
 

[Second Base]

I think Eppler will be signing not necessarily the best players as much as the players that fit our needs the best this offseason. That's a distinction Dipoto never made.

We need a lead off hitter that gets in base and into scoring position while playing good defense. That's Maybin.

We need a middle if the order hitter that produces runs, because this team seems determined to put Calhoun in the #2 spot, whether that's his best spot or not. The only places we can find this are at 1B, 2B or 3B, assuming Maybin is in LF.

Cowart will be at 3B, mostly because he's out of options, is cheap, still has upside and is a great defender, which is what will sell Eppler.  Now since Valbuena will likely serve as insurance or even as a platoon partner at 3B, that leaves 1B as the most likely area of upgrade for a middle of the order hitter. 

Now since Eppler really buys into the platoon splits, he'll target a lefty. Free agent 1B that are left handed include Mitch Moreland, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison and Yonder Alonso. Most specifically, you're gambling that Lo-Mo, Alonso and Moreland won't turn into a pumpkin at midnight because those guys didn't produce before this year.

Hosmer is a local product and fits our needs.

As for second base, we saw with Espinosa that defense comes first here, and with good reason when your double play partner is the best defensive SS this century. I think Eppler will go for quiet production, and that's Eduardo Nunez. He'll fit perfectly into the bottom half of the lineup and get himself in scoring position. He's been solid for the Giants and he'll be solid for us.

In the bullpen, Norris will have successfully priced himself out of Anaheim (Eppler doesn't believe in spending money on a bullpen), and Street will be long gone. But I bet both Parker and Petit will return. Cron will likely be dealt for a reliever. 

The rotation will line up as Richards, Heaney, Shoemaker, Skaggs and Meyer. And if you believe they'll all stay healthy a full year, you've got another thing coming. Which is why Tropeano and Ramirez will both be in the pen and Bridwell will be in AAA with Barria, Long and Scribner.

So your lineup....

LF Maybin, RF Calhoun, CF Trout, DH Pujols, 1B Hosmer, SS Simmons, 2B Nunez, C Maldonado, 3B Cowart.

Bench: Valbuena, Franklin, Perez, Young.

Rotation: Richards, Heaney, Shoe, Skaggs, Meyer.

Bullpen: Bedrosian, Middleton, Parker, Petit, Ramirez, Tropeano and whatever left reliever we acquire for Cron.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I believe Maybin needs to be a priority. I don't see him getting more than 4 guaranteed years. Plus he seems to enjoy playing here, though that's purely speculation. J.D. Martinez would be fantastic, but I agree he's going to command a pretty big contract. I see him possibly getting what Hamilton got. But at least 5/100. 

I'm also warming more and more to the idea of bringing back Escobar. He's going to be 35 next year, so he's not getting more than 2 years. MAYBE 3. Moustakus scares the shit out of me. He's a good defender, but he hits left handed. For a guy who relies on pop and doesn't get on base very well, I could totally see him being a total bust coming to Angels Stadium. 

Darvish is going to get a huge contract and his health is a serious issue. Arrieta is also going to get a huge contract and his talent is a serious issue. The only SP I'd be even remotely interested in is Lance Lynn, but again, huge contract. 

I trust Eppler with the bullpen. Honestly I hope he brings back Norris and Parker.

Yeah, I kind of agree re: Yunel. Better the devil you know, especially for the price Moose will require.

I wouldn't sign Maybin for four years, although maybe he gets something like 3/$30-40MM with a mutual or pending option for a 4th year.

36 minutes ago, SigBaby said:

I agree, bring back Maybin, Parker, and Yunel. I'd love Carlos Santana at 1b 

Santana is an interesting possibility, but he's having an off year and I wouldn't want to commit to him for more than a couple years. But he seems a good bet to bring a decent .250/.800, 25 HR.

21 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I don't think Blake Parker is even arb eligible yet. He only has two years of service time.
 

You're right - not sure why I missed that. Good news. He'll definitely be back - I'll edit the OP. I wouldn't be surprised if Eppler just offers him a 2-3 year contract, rather than arb.

[GoodTimesGoneBad]

I'd like the Angels to let Maybin walk and sign Cain. 

[Angelsjunky]

Good stuff @Scotty@AW, both in terms of solid moves but also a possible approach Eppler could take.

The only part I don't like is Hosmer. As one of the better options in a weak first base field, and someone who is still young (he'll be 28 next year) and a Scott Boras client, Hosmer will get a sizeable contract: my guess would be something like 6/$100MM, and there have been rumors he wants a 10-year deal (!). Do you pay out that kind of dough for a mediocre fielding first baseman with a career line of .280/.337/.433? Now maybe he's a bit better than that and will even out to .290/.350/.450 - but still, do you pay $20MM a year for that kind of production at first base? I just don't see it, especially when Matt Thaiss projects to something like that. Now maybe if Eppler can get Hosmer for something like 3/$45MM, but I think he'll want and get more. I'd pass.

[Troll Daddy]

If Richards can't comeback this season and pitch ... kick his ass to the curb by not offering him arbitration. Why gamble away $7-8M on him? It's is last year of arbitration and then he's a free agent. 

You could still sign him for less. 

 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Great read, very informative! Keep up the good work....

[Second Base]

36 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Good stuff @Scotty@AW, both in terms of solid moves but also a possible approach Eppler could take.

The only part I don't like is Hosmer. As one of the better options in a weak first base field, and someone who is still young (he'll be 28 next year) and a Scott Boras client, Hosmer will get a sizeable contract: my guess would be something like 6/$100MM, and there have been rumors he wants a 10-year deal (!). Do you pay out that kind of dough for a mediocre fielding first baseman with a career line of .280/.337/.433? Now maybe he's a bit better than that and will even out to .290/.350/.450 - but still, do you pay $20MM a year for that kind of production at first base? I just don't see it, especially when Matt Thaiss projects to something like that. Now maybe if Eppler can get Hosmer for something like 3/$45MM, but I think he'll want and get more. I'd pass.

Keep in mind, Hosmer's numbers have been suppressed by his home park.  I think there's a pretty strong chance he'll put up better numbers in the second half of his career than he did in the first half.  And I'm not sure where you got "mediocre fielding" from.  Hosmer is a 3-time Gold Glove winner and consensus around baseball is that he's the best fielding first baseman in the game.

I think he probably goes for 7 years 120 million.  And I think for that price you're going to get .290/.350 35 DB 25 HR and elite defense.  Not only that, but Hosmer is also a clubhouse leader and an emotional spark plug.  He'd be a great asset for this team. 

[Ohtaniland]

57 minutes ago, GoodTimesGoneBad said:

I'd like the Angels to let Maybin walk and sign Cain. 

yep

[wopphil]

If sign a rotation Anchor like Darvish, and offer both Norris and Pettit decent contracts to return. If prioritize signing Maybin. And I'd sign or trade for a legit secondbaseman. 

[Ohtaniland]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

So your lineup....

LF Maybin, RF Calhoun, CF Trout, DH Pujols, 1B Hosmer, SS Simmons, 2B Nunez, C Maldonado, 3B Cowart.

It's amazing how programmed we are to automatically put Pujols behind Trout even with a lethal bat like Hosmer in the lineup. Just another reason why we won't attract Hosmer to begin with. 

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, GoodTimesGoneBad said:

I'd like the Angels to let Maybin walk and sign Cain. 

I wouldn't mind Cain at all.  It would probably cost 2-3 more years and $5 million more a year.  If this is a possibility then trade Maybin  

[Stradling]

Ok how bout our goal is to simply to sign the three Royals, Hosmer, Mous and Cain.  

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

It's amazing how programmed we are to automatically put Pujols behind Trout even with a lethal bat like Hosmer in the lineup. Just another reason why we won't attract Hosmer to begin with. 

It's not our programming, it's Scioscia's preferred lineup construction.  That's all.  And I'm sur that will play very little role in his signing. Money, hometown, playing beside Trout....those are all pretty big selling points. 

[tdawg87]

17 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Keep in mind, Hosmer's numbers have been suppressed by his home park.  I think there's a pretty strong chance he'll put up better numbers in the second half of his career than he did in the first half.  And I'm not sure where you got "mediocre fielding" from.  Hosmer is a 3-time Gold Glove winner and consensus around baseball is that he's the best fielding first baseman in the game.

I think he probably goes for 7 years 120 million.  And I think for that price you're going to get .290/.350 35 DB 25 HR and elite defense.  Not only that, but Hosmer is also a clubhouse leader and an emotional spark plug.  He'd be a great asset for this team. 

If you think Hosmer's numbers are surpressed by his home park, how do you think he'd fare in Anaheim?

[Angelsjunky]

23 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Keep in mind, Hosmer's numbers have been suppressed by his home park.  I think there's a pretty strong chance he'll put up better numbers in the second half of his career than he did in the first half.  And I'm not sure where you got "mediocre fielding" from.  Hosmer is a 3-time Gold Glove winner and consensus around baseball is that he's the best fielding first baseman in the game.

I think he probably goes for 7 years 120 million.  And I think for that price you're going to get .290/.350 35 DB 25 HR and elite defense.  Not only that, but Hosmer is also a clubhouse leader and an emotional spark plug.  He'd be a great asset for this team. 

This seems very optimistic, especially when you consider he's only hit 20+ HR once, and Anaheim isn't exactly a bandbox.

Neither rWAR or fWAR likes his defense, but that doesn't mean everything but it does imply that his defense isn't "elite."

I'd be happy to have Hosmer, just not for 7/$120MM.

[tdawg87]

Yeah Hosmer has been worth -16 runs at 1B his entire career. 

I don't like Hosmer. But he's the best option available soooooo

[Second Base]

32 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

If you think Hosmer's numbers are surpressed by his home park, how do you think he'd fare in Anaheim?

Anaheim is playing more neutral this year.

[totdprods]

Eppler plays the short-term contract game again, driving us all further insane as we ponder why.

Melky Cabrera for LF, Yunel Escobar back at 3B, Scott Feldman, and a Carlos Perez for Jordy Mercer trade to fill 2B.

 

[JustATroutFan]

Outside of Darvish, there is no other pitcher that deserves to get a big contract. Arrieta has regressed big time in the las few years and Vargas is a mediocre pitcher who is having a fluke season. And he is like 32 years old or something like that.

[disarcina]

Any reason why Darvish wouldn't re-sign with Texas?

Not much on the market for starters so it makes sense for him to test it........good thing Arrieta's contract is up this year -- with a weak market someone will over-pay for him based on his past performance........who-ever gets him, it will be a little bit like Halos taking a flyer on a 2 time (back to back) Cy Young Award winner -- Tim Lincecum.......how did that work out?  Arrieta's year is better than where Lincecum was when Halos signed him but Arrieta's effectiveness was decreased markedly over the past two years........Halos should stay away.

Halos should try to re-sign/ extend Maybin but wouldn't over-pay there either.

Blake Parker under club control -- i wouldn't make a huge offer to keep Bedrosian, -- i think Norris might get dealt (perhaps Bedrosian, too, at deadline time for a team that needs pen depth) -- the big issue for the Halos right now -- this month -- is whether to be sellers and acquire some quality depth players for 2018-19 and under club control for off-season F/A guys who will be rentals for their new clubs for the rest of 2017......a few teams will make deals in the next three weeks that will look awful come October -- but they'll roll the dice anyway.