Our Bullpen over the last 6 1/3rd seasons

[Docwaukee]

So here we go again.  I feel like this is my triannual bullpen review.  I could essentially copy and paste one year to the next with the exception being the second half of 2014.  

Some people don't trust WAR for individual relievers, but it's a pretty solid indicator for a bullpen overall.  I will also include win probability added as it takes leverage into account.  

We have, of course, one playoff appearance in the last 6 and perhaps going on 7 years.  

2010 - 1.3 WAR (20th), 2.31 WPA (12th).  With only 80 wins that season, a better pen wasn't likely to make much of a difference considering that we were 10 games back in the division and 15 back in the WC.  

2011 -  0.4 WAR (28th), WPA 0.60 (19th).  We won 86 games that year ranking 10th in off/def WAR and 4th is SP WAR.  The wild card winner had 91 wins that year and the div winner 96 wins.  It would have probably taken a top 10 bullpen to make a difference, but it was certainly the main weak spot for this team.  

2012 - 0.6 WAR (28th), WPA -2.10 (24th).  We won 89 games.  Best offense in baseball by 8.3 WAR.  Starting pitching was an issue (20th WAR) that year but even with that, they had the 4th least reliever innings so it wasn't like the pen was over worked.  They were just horrible.  The WC teams had 93 wins and div winner 94.  Even with that, the pen made a huge difference in my opinion.  

2013 - 1.3 WAR (27th), WPA -0.16 (22nd).  Horrible pen that wasn't going to make a difference because of how bad the starting pitching was.  

2014 - 3.6 WAR (13th), WPA 5.33 (8th).  98 wins.  Second half pen was lights out with 3.8 WAR and 5.46 WPA.  Both #1 in baseball.  Great offense (2nd in WAR) and solid starting pitching (13th).  Very similar team to the 2012 squad with a little less offense and a little better SP.  The pen was the difference and in particular, the second half pen.  

2015 - 2.8 WAR (17th), 3.29 WPA (11th).  Pen was about avg.  Didn't hurt us too bad.  Didn't help us too much.  Last year's team lacked talent and overachieved in general, but imagine if there was a legit lock down guy in that pen.  

2016 - -0.1 WAR (26th), -0.55 WPA (24th).  We are 13th in reliever innings so far.  I thought it would be worse.  Missing Street hasn't helped, and even though we've relied pretty heavily on most of our main guys, they have been bad and likely haven't felt the effects of the increased work load as of yet. 

Overall, we have 10.2 WAR (29th) over the last 6.3 seasons.  3.8 of which came in the second half of 2014.  A WPA of 9.02 (16th) with 5.46 of that coming in 2014 2nd half as well.   That's a lot of late inning disappointment over that period.

SP during that time is at 66.3  and offense/defense and offense 154.1.  Our overall record has been 541-485 (9th)

As a corollary, the pen from 2004-2009  had a WAR of 26.6 (4th) and a WPA of 35.17 (2nd).  The team was 567-405 during that time.  

Starting pitching had a WAR of 87.0(2nd) and Offense/Defense had a WAR of 127.4 (11th)

 

Since this year's numbers haven't really moved the needle, our SP+OFF/DEF from 2004-2009 (214.4), and 2010 to current (220.4) is virtually identical yet the winning pct of .583 vs.527 can essentially be allocated to the bullpen.  That's the difference between a 94 win season and an 85 win season.  Also bear in mind that a huge portion of the bullpens value over the last 6 1/3 seasons came during 1/2 a season.  While I think 9 wins per year is probably a bit much to allocate to our poor bullpens, I do believe that the effect of a good bullpen vs. a bad one is much greater than just their differences in WAR or even WPA.  Probably somewhere in between and around 5-6 games per season.  I also think that because of Scioscia's style of managing, a better pen makes him a disproportionately better manager.  The rest of it probably has to do with the fact that you only have to win a baseball game by one run so the differences in starting pitching also has a significant effect.  

Playing the coulda shoulda woulda game in regards to the past is not something one can win.  There is no way to know what would have happened.  What I do know is that all things point to the fact that under our current style the pen has a clear impact that is greater than expected by just the numbers involved.  

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Good write up, doc. Couldnt agree more (though i couldnt break it down like you).

But it baffles me...the one constant in the peak years/glory times of 2002 2009 was the bullpen, and a steady stream of home grown talent. We havent had either in a while. The farm, theres too many factors to point at one and say why. But the pen...its like the FO has just looked at it and decided "who cares".

I mentioned it at the time, when we traded jepsen for joyce. A lot of people on here liked it, becsause joyce in a split sounded like a good idea, and jepsen fristrsted the hell out of everyone (even after his really good 2014). I didnt like the move at all, simply because we also let grilli go. It screamed bad move tl me to break down a pen that took us several years to figure out and put together, and we break it up after 3 months. 

The weird part of it is that between sosh and arte, who were both here for the good years, youd figure they would be screaming rhe loudest for a lockdown pen. 

2012 should have been ours. Pujols' slow stsrt aside, the SP problems aside...you look at the names in the pen and its easy to see what happened (not to downplay the other problems that year)

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Side note. I remember back during the 02 series, they interviewed arod, who was at the game in the stands. They asked his pick who was gonna take the series, and he picked us. And i remember specifically him saying it was because of the pen, and he didnt hesitate. 

The guys playing know how important a pen is...for whatever reason upper management here doesnt.

[Angel Oracle]

The yachtsman has checked out, which isn't all bad.   Eppler needs to take some of Weave/Nibs/Smith's $36 million AAV and get 2-3 SOLID relievers in here in the winter as a beginning.   

[arch stanton]

I believe most close game, especially between good teams, are won or lost in the 6th and 7th innings. Either have a rotation full of guys who can last that long or a pen that can match up and get through to the set up and closer. It seems to me it would be less expensive and less contract commitment to try to stock pen arms instead of overpaying Shields or Price for half a decade.

[Chuck]

Maybe Eppler will do a better job at revamping the bullpen than Dipoto ever did. 

[tdawg87]

The single most annoying thing about this team is not the anemic offense, or the inconsistent rotation. No, it's going to take a dump in the 7th inning during a close game and then coming back to see they're down by 5 runs. That shit seems to happen far too often. 

It's not an easy fix either. The bullpen needs a complete makeover. We can start by wrapping Salas in an American flag and dropping him off in Fallujah. Then send Bedrock to a shrink for a minimum of 3 visits a day.

[ettin]

We just need Scot Shields back and everything will be right with the world.

[Make Angels Great Again]

Oliver, Shields, Arredondo, K-rod.

 

Wish we had that again.

[Docwaukee]

I throw around a lot of theories about what could help or what is hurting the team.  Usually they're to spark interest and/or debate.  I believe a lot of them but I I'm being proved right isn't my point.  

I am right about this.  The lack of a dominant bullpen has been the missing piece for the last several years.  I am not talking about having an adequate pen but a dominant one.  

 

[nate]

But hey let's keep trading away every pitcher in the farm system!

[Broad Street]

What are we ranked among the AL teams? Just curious because I feel like NL teams go to pinch hitters earlier, causing them to eat more innings in the bullpen.

[AngelsLakersFan]

This is largely a result of our failed farm system and Dipoto's sabremetric belief that relievers are 'fungible.' Yes you can find effective relievers on the scrap heap and yes effective relievers one day are ineffective the next but there is such a thing as a consistent shut down reliever and the time spent finding those effective guys off the scrap heap is time spent losing games.

Probably the smartest thing we can do in the next off season is spend some money on some legit relief help. 

[Docwaukee]

8 minutes ago, Kody Mac said:

What are we ranked among the AL teams? Just curious because I feel like NL teams go to pinch hitters earlier, causing them to eat more innings in the bullpen.

NL has about 2% more reliever innings overall than the AL.

To me, the innings only matter if you have 2 or 3 good guys and are relying very heavily on those top guys early in the season.  

We have one guy in the top 20.  3 in the top 50, and 4 in the top 120.  

Reliever work loads have been slightly above average from top to bottom, but our top 5 guys have gotten about the same number of innings as most other teams top 5.  

Alvarez, Salas, Smith and Morin are our top 4.  2 or 3 fewer innings for each of those guys might mean the pitching staff would be performing better overall, but it doesn't make them any better.  

[bloodbrother]

It's amazing how many soft tossers this pen has. You just don't see that with bullpens. Teams are always trying to load up on hard throwers. Some teams trot out 4-5 guys who seemingly sit mid 90's whereas the Angels have only Bedrosian.

[Docwaukee]

Thank goodness for the reds having what may amount to one of the worst pitching staffs in the history of baseball.  

[tdawg87]

On 6/6/2016 at 2:06 AM, tdawg87 said:

The single most annoying thing about this team is not the anemic offense, or the inconsistent rotation. No, it's going to take a dump in the 7th inning during a close game and then coming back to see they're down by 5 runs. That shit seems to happen far too often. 

It's not an easy fix either. The bullpen needs a complete makeover. We can start by wrapping Salas in an American flag and dropping him off in Fallujah. Then send Bedrock to a shrink for a minimum of 3 visits a day.

*sigh*

[Docwaukee]

I am pretty sure that if this entire team were healthy, our main focus would be on how bad this bullpen is.  I would love to believe that we'd be right in the mix if we had our expected top 5 starters, but all that would have done is create more meaningful opportunities for this bullpen to fail.  In fact, we'd probably be even more distraught than we are now.  Some would claim that it's due to over exposure, but we are 10th in innings overall and we have one guy in the top 30 for IP.  2 in the top 60, and 3 in the top 90.  4 in the top 120, and 5 in the top 150.  So then one might speculate that because we've had to go deeper than most teams, that it's those guys bringing us down.  

But that's just not the case.  In fact, our two best pen arms (statistically), have been a couple of guys that aren't even in the top 120 for IP by a reliever.  

We have 1 guy averaging more than 1 k per 9ip.  We have the lowest k/9 in all of baseball.  

I just don't understand how we continue to let this be such a weak point.  

[tdawg87]

The organizational philosophy for filling out the bullpen is basically "ok so let's just pick up as many dingleberries as we possibly can. If we stock enough of them in our system then one or two are bound to work out. It's totes the rule of averages or something".

[Angel Oracle]

Time to give D. Guerra more late and close chances, and give Tossed Salad the scraps.

[Docwaukee]

Geh.  

[JoJo26]

Absolutely Nothin'

[Docwaukee]

Update.  

We are now tied for 2nd to last in reliever WAR at -0.2.  On pace to be one of the 10 worst in franchise history and the worst in almost 40 years.  

cinnci still holding us up with a -3.4 WAR 

Our WPA, which is situational and includes leverage, is -3.63.  Worst in baseball.  Yes, worse than the Reds.  

[tdawg87]

Salas leaving will bump us up about 12 spots.

[JoJo26]

Weaver must have lost over 10 wins because of the lame bully....

Must suck for a starter to grind out 6 or 7 innings - only to have a Salas, Morin, Rodney, or Yan-type toss it away.