Pujols this spring

[Michifan]

I know it's just spring training and small sample size and bad pitching and no marine layer and smaller ballpark and yada yada yada but 5 Jacks and 12 ribis is not too bad considering his rehab and surgery.

[nando714]

I agree

Everything I've read and listened to Pujols works his ass off day in and day out

[Angelsjunky]

Ribis? Really? I'm more enamored with his .295 OBP.

 

Seriously though, I'm fairly confident in predicting that Albert will be the player he's been for the last few years: A one-dimensional home run hitter and a shadow of his former self. But he'll hit 30+ HR if healthy, but not much else.

[Second Base]

Ribis? Really? I'm more enamored with his .295 OBP.

 

Seriously though, I'm fairly confident in predicting that Albert will be the player he's been for the last few years: A one-dimensional home run hitter and a shadow of his former self. But he'll hit 30+ HR if healthy, but not much else.

 

Yeah I'm seeing pretty much the same thing.  He's moving around a little better right now, but not by much.  His batted ball profile indicates there was a degree of misfortune involved, and that partially explains the dramatic drop in BA and thus OBP.  With Albert, I'm thinking we'll see .270/.320 with 30 DB and 30 HR. 

[Stradling]

If he does that he will be pretty productive. Not many players do that these days.

[Second Base]

If he does that he will be pretty productive. Not many players do that these days.

 

Yeah, I don't doubt he'll be productive.  He may not be Albert Pujols anymore, but he is after all, Albert Pujols. 

[laagamer]

If he squirts out 25 HR's and hits .260 I'll be ecstatic.

[Stradling]

If he squirts out 25 HR's and hits .260 I'll be ecstatic.

No you won't

[laagamer]

No you won't

Guilty

[nate]

I figure he will spend at least 30 games on the DL

[ELEVEN]

So 30 30 30?

[ettin]

He's definitely hitting the ball well. He's hit some hard shots so that is an encouraging sign.

[CaliAngel]

For a player like Pujols who continues to work his tail off, I really have all the confidence in the world that he can be a real presence in the club.

 

It'd be nice for him to be the player we all know he can be, but I really think it comes down to what's going on in his head.

 

Less homers, less pulling, more going with the ball, more doubles. He's got a great eye, he just needs to give up on jacking one every time.

 

I would rather see a .310 Pujols, than a 30 homer Pujols.

[bloodbrother]

He should continue to hit for power but he won't hit for average. .260 or so BA with a weak OBP% and 30 HR is feasible. Very Mark Trumbo like

[Troll Daddy]

Sure it would be nice to have a league average or better OBP ... if he could mash 40 hrs /30 DB /100 Rbis everything else is just gravy.

[Docwaukee]

I wish there was someone he trusted who could sit him down and get him to understand that he's not the guy he used to be and his hrs aren't propagating his legacy.  

 

My recollection of Albert from his prime was that he was just an incredible hitter.  His plate discipline was insane.   His hrs were ancillary.

 

I just don't understand how his pitch recognition went from what it was to what it is.  

 

The most frustrating part is that it seems at least somewhat purposeful.  Not that he's trying to be worse than he used to be but that he's made a very conscious effort to sacrifice his ability as a hitter to maintain his ability as a slugger.  

 

Here is a cool chart I found.  

 

https://public.tableau.com/profile/scott.lindholm#!/vizhome/HittingInandOutofZone/BattingAverage

 

so this data is from the 2014 season but it illustrates the point fairly well.   It clearly shows what has happened, but it doesn't tell us why.  

 

I feel like Albert evolving into his current status predates his Halo career.  

 

In 2010, Albert had a great season.  1.101 ops.  finished second in mvp voting.  GG.  SS.  42hrs with a .312 batting average.  

 

But it was the year he stopped hitting the ball to the opposite field with authority.   Up until that point, his ops to the opposite field was generally around .850.  Granted, there was some fluctuation.  His 3rd year in the league it was .682, but it bounced back to be from .777 to .871 for four years.  Then in 2010, it dipped to .417.  Yes, his ops and it's floated between .456 and .739 ever since.  So for the last six years it's been an avg of around .580ish.  Before 2010, his hr/fb rate to the opposite field was in the 7% range.  In 2010 it dropped to 3.1%.  The lowest of his career at that point.  

 

Granted, Angels stadium kills hrs to RF, but he's hit 2 opposite field hrs in the last four years and my guess is that those weren't in Anaheim.  In 2014, he was actually pretty decent to the opposite field with a .305avg and .739 slugging.  His LD rate was 26% and his fb% was 59%.  The best in his halo career.  But in 2015, he had a .456ops with a .184 batting avg and a 71% fly ball rate.    

 

So in 2011, Albert started cheating.  No like PED cheating, but swing cheating.  Starting just a shade earlier because he knew that in order to continue to hit for power, he would have to do just that and he's been doing it ever since.  

 

So why the slight resurgence to being a more complete hitter in 2014?  It's his perception of who's behind him.  Who's gonna gets the runs in besides him?  I know it's a small sample, but Calhoun hit behind him for about a month last year and Albert went off.  For 25 games he hit .337/1.126.  Maybe it's a coincidence.  Maybe not.  But with the Red Barron slated to hit behind him this year, I think Albert is going to take some of the weight off of his own shoulders to be the primary guy that gets Trout home.  

 

Look for Albert to have a year somewhere between his 2012 and 2014 with 30hrs, a .275 avg and a .330 obp. with 35-40 doubles.  I was worried about Albert after last year, but he's gonna have a very good season and people are gonna be scratching their head about it.  

[NrM]

I just want to see Pujols hit when it counts. He was always solid with runners on until last year. 

 

Trout in 2014 scored 115 Runs with a .377 OBP.  Only 104 runs with a .402 OBP last year. That's a pretty substantial drop considering the difference in OBP.

Pujols and Cron need to step up and come through when guys at the top of the order get on.

 

Trout was a ****ing beast with RISP (.352 BA .508 OBP 1.200 OPS) and Runners on, unfortunately, no one was able to get on base in front of him. Would've been better off batting him 1st last year.

Edited March 29, 2016 by Mr. Meeseeks

[Michifan]

I think Dochalo is on to something. I think it affects Albert who's behind him, whether he feels he can trust others to deliver or if he feels he's the only chance for scoring. It's been a black hole. If Calhoun can continue to bat 5th and deliver, we might see hitter Albert more often.

[zenmaster]

What numbers is Pujols capable this year if he just switched his mentality to hit for OBP rather than HR?

[totdprods]

I just hope somehow he manages to pull off what ARod and Ortiz did around age 36 and turn in a couple 'resurgent' years. If he can maintain for at least another 3 or 4 years then overall that contract won't have been that bad when all is said and done.

 

I do think the surgery and his newfound willingness to DH more will help.

[Angelsjunky]

Mark Trumbo, but for 10x the cost! Awesome.

 

Pujols is probably my least favorite Angel in years. He represents the Angels before the glory years of 2002-09: "Let's sign a declining former star and watch him decline further!"

[Make Angels Great Again]

If he hits 40 HRs again this year like last year he'll be at exactly 600.

[Stradling]

Years as in two? Because if you dislike him more than you disliked Hamilton then I don't know what to say.

[California Cajun]

I wish there was someone he trusted who could sit him down and get him to understand that he's not the guy he used to be and his hrs aren't propagating his legacy.  

 

My recollection of Albert from his prime was that he was just an incredible hitter.  His plate discipline was insane.   His hrs were ancillary.

 

I just don't understand how his pitch recognition went from what it was to what it is.  

 

The most frustrating part is that it seems at least somewhat purposeful.  Not that he's trying to be worse than he used to be but that he's made a very conscious effort to sacrifice his ability as a hitter to maintain his ability as a slugger.  

 

Here is a cool chart I found.  

 

https://public.tableau.com/profile/scott.lindholm#!/vizhome/HittingInandOutofZone/BattingAverage

 

so this data is from the 2014 season but it illustrates the point fairly well.   It clearly shows what has happened, but it doesn't tell us why.  

 

I feel like Albert evolving into his current status predates his Halo career.  

 

In 2010, Albert had a great season.  1.101 ops.  finished second in mvp voting.  GG.  SS.  42hrs with a .312 batting average.  

 

But it was the year he stopped hitting the ball to the opposite field with authority.   Up until that point, his ops to the opposite field was generally around .850.  Granted, there was some fluctuation.  His 3rd year in the league it was .682, but it bounced back to be from .777 to .871 for four years.  Then in 2010, it dipped to .417.  Yes, his ops and it's floated between .456 and .739 ever since.  So for the last six years it's been an avg of around .580ish.  Before 2010, his hr/fb rate to the opposite field was in the 7% range.  In 2010 it dropped to 3.1%.  The lowest of his career at that point.  

 

Granted, Angels stadium kills hrs to RF, but he's hit 2 opposite field hrs in the last four years and my guess is that those weren't in Anaheim.  In 2014, he was actually pretty decent to the opposite field with a .305avg and .739 slugging.  His LD rate was 26% and his fb% was 59%.  The best in his halo career.  But in 2015, he had a .456ops with a .184 batting avg and a 71% fly ball rate.    

 

So in 2011, Albert started cheating.  No like PED cheating, but swing cheating.  Starting just a shade earlier because he knew that in order to continue to hit for power, he would have to do just that and he's been doing it ever since.  

 

So why the slight resurgence to being a more complete hitter in 2014?  It's his perception of who's behind him.  Who's gonna gets the runs in besides him?  I know it's a small sample, but Calhoun hit behind him for about a month last year and Albert went off.  For 25 games he hit .337/1.126.  Maybe it's a coincidence.  Maybe not.  But with the Red Barron slated to hit behind him this year, I think Albert is going to take some of the weight off of his own shoulders to be the primary guy that gets Trout home.  

 

Look for Albert to have a year somewhere between his 2012 and 2014 with 30hrs, a .275 avg and a .330 obp. with 35-40 doubles.  I was worried about Albert after last year, but he's gonna have a very good season and people are gonna be scratching their head about it.

That's an outstanding post. I'm not sure I understand it fully but I do think Albert understands everything.

A few random thoughts. I think some homers and line drives he hit in the past are now ground balls. He knows what to do but can't always do it. I agree that he recognizes this and has tried to make adjustments.

I think he wants to remain a slugger because he can no longer run well.

Because he doesn't run well I have wondered if somebody like Calhoun should follow Trout in the batting order in hopes of getting Trout to at least second base when Albert bats to minimize the double play. But as you mentioned, the batter behind Albert has an effect on Albert's hitting.

[Stradling]

All Albert has to do to have a great season is spend the first month hitting ground balls through the right side of the infield against the shift. He does that then the shift disappears or they start pitching him inside. When they pitch him inside he can still crush that ball.