Lesson Learned?

[TroutBaseball]

Jeff Fletcher ✔ @JeffFletcherOCR

Re: Angels and luxury tax. I really believe Moreno is more leery of another Hamilton-like disaster than of going over the tax threshold

 

 

Could it be that Arte learned his lesson and the pendulum has swung hard in the opposite direction?  I think this might be the best justification we could hope for.

[Troutstanding]

Except Hamilton was riddled in red flags and Upton isn't. 

[nando714]

I agree

Hamilton was a ticking time bomb.

Didn't hamilton say last yr "arte should have know I was going to relapse" or something like that

[Angel Oracle]

Swinging to the complete opposite is also a panic move, indicative of an owner who doesn't know WTF he is doing!

[totdprods]

Except Hamilton was riddled in red flags and Upton isn't.

Hamilton was a disaster waiting to happen, but Upton has plenty of risk attached still for the money he'd command, and it's arguable that he alone would be such an improvement that it'd push into an elite team.

Disappointed at the news but to say there's plenty evidence against all of the Big 4 that none of them would be a certified, team-elevating talent. Each carried significant risk for the price they were to command. Look at the pages of debate for proof. Heyward was the clearest cut of any of them, and he appears to have been destined a Cub regardless if the Angels paid up.

[stormngt]

If this was true:

Why didn't we pursue Kim? Why haven't we invested more in international scouting and player development. Why did we traded for simmons instead of an impact lf or 2b?

[laagamer]

I agree

Hamilton was a ticking time bomb.

Didn't hamilton say last yr "arte should have know I was going to relapse" or something like that

 

If he did, I sincerely hope he overdoses next time his "inevitable" relapse occurs. 

[stormngt]

If this was true:

Why didn't we pursue Kim? Why haven't we invested more in international scouting and player development. Why did we traded for simmons instead of an impact lf or 2b?

[Bruce Nye]

I think it is a combo of Wells, Mathews, Hamilton and Puljos and CJ Wilson.  

[totdprods]

Personally, I'm starting to wonder if we are witnessing the setting of the stage for some serious labor disputes, stagnant CBA discussions, etc. Between record player salaries, owners' reaping profits, insane tv deals, things have been pretty good for a very long time, and eventually something is going to tip the scale.

There are simply way too many issues and discussions and developments currently happening across all layers of baseball for things to stay this cohesive.

I NEVER saw it mentioned here, but apparently MLB has lifted black-out restrictions for MLBTV next year. That is going to cut into these gigantic broadcast deals (especially with so many consumers 'cutting the cord') and that is going to eliminate a huge revenue stream for teams sooner rather than later. Once you take that money out of the equation and look at teams like the Angels, Dodgers, and Red Sox failing to win championships with huge payrolls and expensive players, and look at teams like the Royals and Astros succeeding with a fraction of the cost, you'll see owners start to look at competing with cheaper teams (to help profits) and that's going to conflict heavily with players' expectations of big contracts. Add in all the wonkiness of international players, awkward qualifying offers, and a draft budget pool that doesn't seem to balance fairly and the sport is ripe for some major issues in coming years.

Edited December 17, 2015 by totdprods

[Turd Ferguson]

The lesson is don't spend big on 32 year holds hitting the down side of their career. Where you spend is for guys in or entering their prime. 

[Troutstanding]

Hamilton was a disaster waiting to happen, but Upton has plenty of risk attached still for the money he'd command, and it's arguable that he alone would be such an improvement that it'd push into an elite team.

Disappointed at the news but to say there's plenty evidence against all of the Big 4 that none of them would be a certified, team-elevating talent. Each carried significant risk for the price they were to command. Look at the pages of debate for proof. Heyward was the clearest cut of any of them, and he appears to have been destined a Cub regardless if the Angels paid up.

All FA acquisitions carry some degree of risk. Some carry more than others. Hamilton risk > Upton risk, by a lot. 

[Inside Pitch]

I think it is a combo of Wells, Mathews, Hamilton and Puljos and CJ Wilson.  

 

Long time no see Bruce..  Good to see you posting.

 

 

Swinging to the complete opposite is also a panic move, indicative of an owner who doesn't know WTF he is doing!

 

I dunno..  I think he knows exactly what he's trying to avoid. 

[mulwin444]

Long time no see Bruce..  Good to see you posting.

 

 

 

I dunno..  I think he knows exactly what he's trying to avoid. 

Exactly...I don't think the pendulum has swung all the way across as much as it dead-stopped right in the middle on the way back.  He's not in fire-sale mode but he's not going to spend like a moron either

[Ohtaniland]

But when I address this issue as I have for several seasons Stradling dismisses my claims. Arte got it right this time and everybody is up in arms.

[totdprods]

Exactly...I don't think the pendulum has swung all the way across as much as it dead-stopped right in the middle on the way back. He's not in fire-sale mode but he's not going to spend like a moron either

I think a down the middle approach is best. There's still enough talent on this team, and potential for a lucky trade or signee still, for this team to be in the mix at least for '16. There's a lot of youth, a lot of control, and a lot of affordable players on the books through Trout's contract.

By avoiding any QO FA's, we are currently at #18 and can move up further still. Start focusing on the draft and international signees immediately and aim for players who can contribute around '18-'19. We can't rebuild the entire farm by then, but if we can produce an impact bat, an impact arm, and a couple role players we will be in good shape. Pretend to compete in '16, maybe we get lucky and some folks step forward and we wind up growing into a really good team this year and next. Maybe not. In which case, punt '17, maybe trade one of Calhoun/Heaney/Richards/Skaggs for a haul, sign a couple bargain bin FA's who could turn into deadline trade bait, and save money up for the '18 FA mega class.

[Troll Daddy]

The lesson is don't spend big on 32 year holds hitting the down side of their career. Where you spend is for guys in or entering their prime.

Tell that to the Cubs.

[AngelsFanSince86]

Personally, I'm starting to wonder if we are witnessing the setting of the stage for some serious labor disputes, stagnant CBA discussions, etc. Between record player salaries, owners' reaping profits, insane tv deals, things have been pretty good for a very long time, and eventually something is going to tip the scale.

There are simply way too many issues and discussions and developments currently happening across all layers of baseball for things to stay this cohesive.

I NEVER saw it mentioned here, but apparently MLB has lifted black-out restrictions for MLBTV next year. That is going to cut into these gigantic broadcast deals (especially with so many consumers 'cutting the cord') and that is going to eliminate a huge revenue stream for teams sooner rather than later. Once you take that money out of the equation and look at teams like the Angels, Dodgers, and Red Sox failing to win championships with huge payrolls and expensive players, and look at teams like the Royals and Astros succeeding with a fraction of the cost, you'll see owners start to look at competing with cheaper teams (to help profits) and that's going to conflict heavily with players' expectations of big contracts. Add in all the wonkiness of international players, awkward qualifying offers, and a draft budget pool that doesn't seem to balance fairly and the sport is ripe for some major issues in coming years.

So teams will decide sucking for decades at a time is a better route? The cardinals are literally the only example of a team with a manageable payroll that consistently competes. It's ridiculous when people bring up Astros and royals. All they had to do was suck for 20-30 years and now they finally have cost controlled young players. What a bunch of geniuses.

Edit: outside of that I see what you are saying. But barring above mentioned labor disputes, etc., this isn't going to happen. Mlb is making tons of money and people will always pay to make sure they get their guy.

Edited December 18, 2015 by AngelsFanSince86

[totdprods]

So teams will decide sucking for decades at a time is a better route? The cardinals are literally the only example of a team with a manageable payroll that consistently competes. It's ridiculous when people bring up Astros and royals. All they had to do was suck for 20-30 years and now they finally have cost controlled young players. What a bunch of geniuses.

Edit: outside of that I see what you are saying. But barring above mentioned labor disputes, etc., this isn't going to happen. Mlb is making tons of money and people will always pay to make sure they get their guy.

I admit Astros/Royals were a knee jerk example. But overall, going that bulimic 'tank for years and gobble up draft picks' doesn't seem like a suitable business model. It may be working out great for teams who caught on and went that route now, but it feels like inevitably something is going to complicate that strategy. Edited December 18, 2015 by totdprods

[totdprods]

Edit: outside of that I see what you are saying. But barring above mentioned labor disputes, etc., this isn't going to happen. Mlb is making tons of money and people will always pay to make sure they get their guy.

There is no way that will be sustainable. Yeah all is good now, but eventually there has to be a cap of some sorts? There's going to be an offseason where the owners who spend big and win nothing finally look at the cost of these FA's and question why they should pay so much. Especially if the tv contract bubble breaks.

Look at this offseason so far. The winter meetings have come and gone and not only are there multiple big name FAs on the board, but there isn't event much rumors about them. And big spending teams like the Angels, Dodgers, and Yankees are pretty quiet. Feels like eventually teams are going to wonder why they should pay so much when stashing prospects and tanking is cheaper, more profitable, and as of now, not really negatively affecting anything.

Edited December 18, 2015 by totdprods

[tdawg87]

But when I address this issue as I have for several seasons Stradling dismisses my claims. Arte got it right this time and everybody is up in arms.

 

You're really pushing it.

 

Just because Arte may have proven your narrative to be true, doesn't mean it is right or what is best for the team.

 

Reading your posts lately it seems you really do want people to throw you a parade.

[Ohtaniland]

You're really pushing it.

Just because Arte may have proven your narrative to be true, doesn't mean it is right or what is best for the team.

Reading your posts lately it seems you really do want people to throw you a parade.

Just a small parade. Nothing major. Lol

[ScottT]

I think he is still butt hurt about Hamilton and that might cause him to be gun shy.  Heck, have we heard anything from him since then?  He doesn't seem to have anything nice to say lately.  

 

His mistake with Hamilton might cause him to spend less.... that stinks.  If it was his GM that wasted the money, I might understand.  

[arch stanton]

I know they're two different people but Upton probably grew up sharing a bedroom with one of the biggest free agent disasters of this century. I agree about long contracts and that's another reason I would advocate for trading for Ethier of Gonzalez or Brandon Phillips with their 2 year commitments or signing Span to a short incentive contract. If 2018 is really going to be that special then let's clear the books in anticipation.

[tdawg87]

 

 

Jeff Fletcher Verified account ‏@JeffFletcherOCR

Re: Angels and luxury tax. I really believe Moreno is more leery of another Hamilton-like disaster than of going over the tax threshold

 

 

If that's true than Arte is just a horrible, petty owner. 2018 won't be any different, unless this asshole sells the team.