Never overpay for defense

[UndertheHalo]

IF you can add a guy like Heyward, what does that do for a guy like Calhoun.  I think Kole was pressing last year, especially with the struggles of Albert and at times Trout.  Heyward would take some pressure off of the entire line up.  I like a line up with Heyward in it....

 

I think Kole was definitely pressing, so was Trout.  Big factor in their slow downs I think.  Especially with Kole and the strike outs at the end of the year.  Im not looking at any numbers, but just from watching him in september, he all of sudden was just not having the solid AB's he was having prior.  

[Brent Maguire]

I think Kole was definitely pressing, so was Trout.  Big factor in their slow downs I think.  Especially with Kole and the strike outs at the end of the year.  Im not looking at any numbers, but just from watching him in september, he all of sudden was just not having the solid AB's he was having prior.  

To take that even further, it's possible he felt the need to just try to hit home runs to get the team on the board. With the whole offense just not being very good, maybe he felt trying to hit home runs was better for the team than getting on base. I hope we see the 2014 offensive version of Kole next year(.270/.330/.440 type line). 

[IEAngelsfan]

did someone say snacks?

I'm getting hungry now.....please stop mentioning snacks.

[Second Base]

Sign me up for the Santiago for Soler trade! And maybe if we add Shoemaker we can get Javier Baez!!!

[tdawg87]

Im going to rip this thread a new one when I get home.

[TroutField]

Im going to rip this thread a new one when I get home.

LOLLLL

[halosfan1970]

I'm getting hungry now.....please stop mentioning snacks.

 

Yeah, those old bags of Bugles. Those salty little cones of fried corn mush. Mmmm....

 

But, I also think "snacks" is a Chinese slang term for prostitutes. Just like OF defense, one should never overpay for Chinese prostitutes either.

[bloodbrother]

Just surrpised at how hesitant some are regarding Heyward. With his defense + his current offense, he's a likely 4-5 WAR player. If he shows any growth in his offense, which wouldn't be surprising considering his age, he could easily become a 6-7 WAR player. Give me that in FA any day

[gotbeer]

Im going to rip this thread a new one when I get home.

 

Good luck.  By the time you get home, this thread will be on page 6, and it'll be about how we let Bourjos get away.

[halosfan1970]

Good luck.  By the time you get home, this thread will be on page 6, and it'll be about how we let Bourjos get away.

 

Bourjos? OMG!!! We lost Grichuk. We still have five years of complaining about that.

[tdawg87]

The guy is not a superstar but people are talking superstar money like this is Manny Ramirez, Trout, Puljols or Griffey Jr in their prime as free agents. Ridiculous.

He is talented, but not at the level to carry the Cardinals last season. But people want to point to his WAR. You never overpay for great defense...only great offense. If you subtract this guys overinflated defensive WAr, you get a $9 to $10 a year player.

There are other options. Explore trading Santiago to the pirates for Polanco, or to the snacks for use yasmany tomas or Marlins for yelich or to the cubs for soler.

 

So first off let me preface this by saying I hate you.

 

I don't really, but I am in a pissy ass mood so as of now, I hate you.

 

Secondly, lets take a look at what "great offensive" pieces are available:

 

Justin Upton.

 

Now, admittedly, I would be absolutely happy if the Angels signed Upton. He's young, he plays good D in left, and adds some nice power to the lineup. However, lets look at his overall stats, shall we?

 

His career average is .271. His career OBP is .352. His career OPS+ is 121. He averages about 16 stolen bases a year, and has boasted a 3.82 WAR over the last 5 years. Pretty damn solid player. And he is just 28 years old, so certainly worth the investment.

 

However, lets compare those numbers to Jason Heyward.

 

His career average is .268. His career OBP is .353. His career OPS+ is 114. He averages 17 SB a year, and has boasted a 4.94 WAR over the last 5 years. Pretty damn solid player, and he is just 26 years old, so certainly worth the investment.

 

Do those numbers look drastically different to you? The ONLY difference between the two is Upton averages about 6 more HR per year. Lets not bring RBI's into the conversation because that is retarded. You know what another difference is between the two? Heyward plays spectacular defense. Upton plays good defense. Is the 6 extra homeruns and more "o dem ribbies" worth the drop in defensive value? Seems to me the players are pretty evenly matched, all things considered.

 

Yes, Heyward's value comes mostly from his defense, but he is no slouch with the bat as I just showed. And since when is defense not important? Run prevention wins championships. Just look at the Royals.

 

So let's look at another big bat:

 

Yoenis Cespedes.

 

First, I don't really need to bring up that he is 4 years older than Heyward.

 

Secondly, lets look at his career stats:

 

.271 career average, .319 career OBP, 122 career OPS+ (which was inflated by his absurd 2015 which he is unlikely to repeat. He has boasted a 2.38 WAR the last 5 years. Unlike Heyward or Upton, he does NOT steal bases and does not get on base. His only asset is power, and again...inflated by 2015 numbers. Did I also mention he is 4 years older?

 

So Cespedes seems like a better hitter overall, but not by much. And he is the weakest defender of the three.

 

Finally, lets look at Alex Gordon.

 

Gordon will be 6 years older than Heyward in 2016. So lets just get that out of the way.

 

His career numbers are as follows:

 

.269 career average, .348 OBP, 112 OPS+. He's actually been worse than Heyward.

 

Now, the one saving grace is that Gordon is the only outfielder to give Heyward a run for his money in the OF. But let me repeat: He is going to be 6 years older than Heyward in 2016.

 

So in conclusion, Heyward is either better, or fairly similar to the other "big bat candidates" for the Angels to sign this offseason. He is not just about defense, as he is a perfectly adequate hitter.

 

Are we back to the mid 2000's where anyone who could hit a homerun was deemed extremely valuable? How about we look at the fact that the Angels were 10th in the majors in HR this past year, yet in the bottom 5 in OBP.

 

I also want to bring up the fact that adding Upton or Cespedes will put yet another RH hitter in the lineup. And assuming the Angels re-sign Freese, that's 8 RH hitters.

[Brent Maguire]

To add to tdawg's point about home runs being overrated, just look at all the HR only guys who were moved this last week. Trumbo was traded for a 30 year old AAAA catcher. Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter were non tendered. Baseball is getting way smarter with evaluating the entirety of a player, not just looking at HR and RBI totals. 

[ukyah]

So first off let me preface this by saying I hate you.

 

I don't really, but I am in a pissy ass mood so as of now, I hate you.

 

 

 

this got a laugh out of me.

 

 

my order of preference would probably be:

 

heyward

upton

gordon

revere

cespedes

 

i'd be totally fine if we traded for revere and he was the starter and leadoff.

[tdawg87]

To add to tdawg's point about home runs being overrated, just look at all the HR only guys who were moved this last week. Trumbo was traded for a 30 year old AAAA catcher. Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter were non tendered. Baseball is getting way smarter with evaluating the entirety of a player, not just looking at HR and RBI totals. 

 

Homeruns are important, I just feel between Trout, Pujols, Calhoun, Cron, and eventually Freese, the Angels can hit plenty of them. They just need guys on base when they hit those homeruns.

 

Not sure how many solo shots this team hit this past year but I'm guessing it's a lot.

[QuinlansMinion]

Never overpay for defense?  Then why did we just give up a future ace for a slap hitting short stop?

[Mark68]

Homeruns are important, I just feel between Trout, Pujols, Calhoun, Cron, and eventually Freese, the Angels can hit plenty of them. They just need guys on base when they hit those homeruns.

 

Not sure how many solo shots this team hit this past year but I'm guessing it's a lot.

By my calculations, it was about eleventy billion.

[Troll Daddy]

Never overpay for defense? Then why did we just give up a future ace for a slap hitting short stop?

That's easy one ...

Friendly contract

Locked up for five years

Defensive position

Contact hitter

Clubhouse appeal

Newcomb not a Ace ... let's re- review if he actually becomes one.

[Lou]

Oh and there's the "RBI" mention. Yeesh.

I'll remember this when Pujols fails when he's batting with a runner in scoring position next year. No big deal.

[Lou]

So first off let me preface this by saying I hate you.

 

I don't really, but I am in a pissy ass mood so as of now, I hate you.

 

Secondly, lets take a look at what "great offensive" pieces are available:

 

Justin Upton.

 

Now, admittedly, I would be absolutely happy if the Angels signed Upton. He's young, he plays good D in left, and adds some nice power to the lineup. However, lets look at his overall stats, shall we?

 

His career average is .271. His career OBP is .352. His career OPS+ is 121. He averages about 16 stolen bases a year, and has boasted a 3.82 WAR over the last 5 years. Pretty damn solid player. And he is just 28 years old, so certainly worth the investment.

 

However, lets compare those numbers to Jason Heyward.

 

His career average is .268. His career OBP is .353. His career OPS+ is 114. He averages 17 SB a year, and has boasted a 4.94 WAR over the last 5 years. Pretty damn solid player, and he is just 26 years old, so certainly worth the investment.

 

Do those numbers look drastically different to you? The ONLY difference between the two is Upton averages about 6 more HR per year. Lets not bring RBI's into the conversation because that is retarded. You know what another difference is between the two? Heyward plays spectacular defense. Upton plays good defense. Is the 6 extra homeruns and more "o dem ribbies" worth the drop in defensive value? Seems to me the players are pretty evenly matched, all things considered.

 

Yes, Heyward's value comes mostly from his defense, but he is no slouch with the bat as I just showed. And since when is defense not important? Run prevention wins championships. Just look at the Royals.

 

So let's look at another big bat:

 

Yoenis Cespedes.

 

First, I don't really need to bring up that he is 4 years older than Heyward.

 

Secondly, lets look at his career stats:

 

.271 career average, .319 career OBP, 122 career OPS+ (which was inflated by his absurd 2015 which he is unlikely to repeat. He has boasted a 2.38 WAR the last 5 years. Unlike Heyward or Upton, he does NOT steal bases and does not get on base. His only asset is power, and again...inflated by 2015 numbers. Did I also mention he is 4 years older?

 

So Cespedes seems like a better hitter overall, but not by much. And he is the weakest defender of the three.

 

Finally, lets look at Alex Gordon.

 

Gordon will be 6 years older than Heyward in 2016. So lets just get that out of the way.

 

His career numbers are as follows:

 

.269 career average, .348 OBP, 112 OPS+. He's actually been worse than Heyward.

 

Now, the one saving grace is that Gordon is the only outfielder to give Heyward a run for his money in the OF. But let me repeat: He is going to be 6 years older than Heyward in 2016.

 

So in conclusion, Heyward is either better, or fairly similar to the other "big bat candidates" for the Angels to sign this offseason. He is not just about defense, as he is a perfectly adequate hitter.

 

Are we back to the mid 2000's where anyone who could hit a homerun was deemed extremely valuable? How about we look at the fact that the Angels were 10th in the majors in HR this past year, yet in the bottom 5 in OBP.

 

I also want to bring up the fact that adding Upton or Cespedes will put yet another RH hitter in the lineup. And assuming the Angels re-sign Freese, that's 8 RH hitters.

blah, blah, blah...

get to the snacks already

[ten ocho recon scout]

One thing ill add, and maybe its the wrong thread, but ive been thinking about it since the simmons trade.

I keep reading a run saved is as good as a run scored. (Preface by saying im a huge fan of offense). The problem is see with that theory is that unless you totally scrutanize EVERY play over a year, i dont see how you can truly say player X saved a run player Y wouldnt have.

I guess its more of an argument about simmons vs aybar (or someone similar). The leap from hood defense to elite defense is very real. But the problem i see is it kind of depends on the other guy hitting the ball at SS (for this scenario) when its needed. Meaning as good as simmons is, he cant cover 3B/2B. So its great when theres a big play he vacuums up a hit a lesser SS would have grabbed, but the majority of plays to him will be covered by anothwr good-not great SS.

On the other side of the coin, i see more situations (especially with our offense) that he comes to bat in an important situation and his average bat hurts us.

Im probably not explaining myself well enough, hopefully someone can kind of see where im going and clean it up so it doesnt sound so stupid. But my point being that while technicallh, yes, a run saved counts the same as a run scored, you could make the counter argument about a run scored being as important as a run saved. The trick is figuring out which one will happen more.

In the case of heyward vs upton, i keep reading we need OBP not power. Maybe, but firstly, one guy wont fix that while we stil have duds in the back of the order. I think another moto hitter helps us more there. Second, its not like heyward is blowing upton out in that category anyway (like cespedes).

Just my 2 cents, and ill be happy if we sign heyward. Very happy. I just kind of agree with the OP, id just tweak it to say dont overpay for strictly defense (like we did with simmons)

[Mark68]

One thing ill add, and maybe its the wrong thread, but ive been thinking about it since the simmons trade.

I keep reading a run saved is as good as a run scored. (Preface by saying im a huge fan of offense). The problem is see with that theory is that unless you totally scrutanize EVERY play over a year, i dont see how you can truly say player X saved a run player Y wouldnt have.

I guess its more of an argument about simmons vs aybar (or someone similar). The leap from hood defense to elite defense is very real. But the problem i see is it kind of depends on the other guy hitting the ball at SS (for this scenario) when its needed. Meaning as good as simmons is, he cant cover 3B/2B. So its great when theres a big play he vacuums up a hit a lesser SS would have grabbed, but the majority of plays to him will be covered by anothwr good-not great SS.

On the other side of the coin, i see more situations (especially with our offense) that he comes to bat in an important situation and his average bat hurts us.

Im probably not explaining myself well enough, hopefully someone can kind of see where im going and clean it up so it doesnt sound so stupid. But my point being that while technicallh, yes, a run saved counts the same as a run scored, you could make the counter argument about a run scored being as important as a run saved. The trick is figuring out which one will happen more.

In the case of heyward vs upton, i keep reading we need OBP not power. Maybe, but firstly, one guy wont fix that while we stil have duds in the back of the order. I think another moto hitter helps us more there. Second, its not like heyward is blowing upton out in that category anyway (like cespedes).

Just my 2 cents, and ill be happy if we sign heyward. Very happy. I just kind of agree with the OP, id just tweak it to say dont overpay for strictly defense (like we did with simmons)

I look at it this way. Heyward was on base about 36% of the time last year. That would have been second on this team. When you look at who hit in front of Trout last year, the three stiffs in order from highest to lowest OBP were: Giavotella (his .318 OBP was actually third! on the team), Calhoun (.308), and Aybar (.301).

 

Consider that a .050 increase in OBP over 600 PA means 30 more runners on base in front of Trout, and you can probably see how much difference someone like Heyward would make.

 

When you also consider Heyward's age (26) and that 5-tool players NEVER reach free agency at that age (before their prime), and the fact that the Angels' rotation is full of fly ball pitchers, Heyward's value is MUCH higher than any of the other outfielders that are available.

[totdprods]

I guess its more of an argument about simmons vs aybar (or someone similar). The leap from hood defense to elite defense is very real. But the problem i see is it kind of depends on the other guy hitting the ball at SS (for this scenario) when its needed. Meaning as good as simmons is, he cant cover 3B/2B. So its great when theres a big play he vacuums up a hit a lesser SS would have grabbed, but the majority of plays to him will be covered by anothwr good-not great

Hey now.

[mram197]

I agree. Why the heck did we overpay for Simmons.

To tdawg, hey I've read your posts on quite a few threads and got nauseous on your logic. Thankfully you and Reagins are not GMing the team.

My point is that regardless of the market, you do not overpay unless the guy is a superstar offensively. By someone's fangraph account here, Hayward is a top 30 guy offensively. Exactly, he is not a top offensive guy so why pay him for the potential he won't reach.

If I'm spending 20 to 30 million a year I am paying a guy who can carry the team. That isn't heyward

[Mark68]

I agree. Why the heck did we overpay for Simmons.

To tdawg, hey I've read your posts on quite a few threads and got nauseous on your logic. Thankfully you and Reagins are not GMing the team.

My point is that regardless of the market, you do not overpay unless the guy is a superstar offensively. By someone's fangraph account here, Hayward is a top 30 guy offensively. Exactly, he is not a top offensive guy so why pay him for the potential he won't reach.

If I'm spending 20 to 30 million a year I am paying a guy who can carry the team. That isn't heyward

Thankfully, you aren't the GM. Because you don't understand how the market has changed with the big TV contracts. Big money is getting thrown around like GMs are Josh Hamilton at a strip club and they're out of blow.

 

If you need to spend $20-$30 million per year to upgrade to (arguably) the best outfield in baseball and a vastly improved and lengthened lineup, you do it. And when the guy you're spending it on is not even in his prime yet, you do it and don't ask questions.

[ELEVEN]

Yeah, those old bags of Bugles. Those salty little cones of fried corn mush. Mmmm....

But, I also think "snacks" is a Chinese slang term for prostitutes. Just like OF defense, one should never overpay for Chinese prostitutes either.

What?? Just ignore the max effort and the fact they get dirty?