FanGraphs: Getting Mike Trout to 168.4 WAR

[ettin]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/getting-mike-trout-to-168-4-war/

[Angelsjunky]

I made a mess of myself just reading the thread title.

[mrwicked]

he'll get there this year.

[Angelsjunky]

On a serious note, I think he gets to around 130 fWAR +/- 10 or so WAR. He's at 38.5 through age 23. Let's say he averages 8 a year through the rest of his 20s - that's 8 x 6 = 48. That brings him to 86.5 through his 20s. Then let's say he averages 6/year for the first five years of his 30s, which is another 30 fWAR (116.5 total) through age 35. For the last five years of his 30s he averages 3 a year, so that's 131.5, and then in his 40s it evens out. 130ish WAR would bring him into the same vicinity as Tris Speaker, Ted Williams and Rogers Hornsby - top 10 all-time but not top 5.

[Jobu]

Getting Mike Trout to the World Series

[Sam Sanchez]

On a serious note, I think he gets to around 130 fWAR +/- 10 or so WAR. He's at 38.5 through age 23. Let's say he averages 8 a year through the rest of his 20s - that's 8 x 6 = 48. That brings him to 86.5 through his 20s. Then let's say he averages 6/year for the first five years of his 30s, which is another 30 fWAR (116.5 total) through age 35. For the last five years of his 30s he averages 3 a year, so that's 131.5, and then in his 40s it evens out. 130ish WAR would bring him into the same vicinity as Tris Speaker, Ted Williams and Rogers Hornsby - top 10 all-time but not top 5.

 

He's averaged around 9.5 through his first 4 years. I'd say averaging 9.0 through what is typically considered "prime" years would be a realistic bet.

[Second Base]

The only part that bothered me is reading that he'll finish his career in a Boston Red Sox uniform.  I don't think I could stomach that. 

[laagamer]

60 HR season? ****ing serious?

[Troll Daddy]

He may never have a 40 HR season again. Although, I wouldn't bet against it.

[NrM]

He may never have a 40 HR season again. Although, I wouldn't bet against it.

blatant troll is blatant not even trying to hide it.

I think we can't ignore the pujols factor, who has killed his running game.

Edited November 23, 2015 by Poozy

[ettin]

He may never have a 40 HR season again. Although, I wouldn't bet against it.

Way to cover all of your bases there in case you're wrong or right. You were talking about Trout right not Bautista, Cano, Fielder, Longoria, Harper, or one of your other favorite players on your other favorite teams yes?

[Angelsjunky]

I think Trout has several more 40+ HR seasons. 50 isn't out of the question at some point. He's developed more power than I think anyone could have guessed.

 

Anyhow, Trout is one of only 24 players in major league history who have hit 40+ HR in a season at age 23 or younger. Or rather, it has been done 24 times by 20 players - Juan Gonzalez and Alex Rodriguez did it twice each, Eddie Mathews three times.

[fan_since79]

I'll be happy if we can get him to steal second base every once in a while.

 

Whatever happened to that??

[Brent Maguire]

He may never have a 40 HR season again. Although, I wouldn't bet against it.

Not sure if serious but….

 

He's seen his home runs jump in 3 straight years, he's getting much stronger as he ages and he's selling out for power now. Based on his average home run distance, I can safely say he's one of the select few in baseball who has 50+ HR potential. 

[mrwicked]

Getting Mike Trout to the World Series postseason.

 

fixed.

[bloodbrother]

August Fagerstrom is a 168.4 WAR name