Prime Time for Angels to Acquire Longoria

[tdawg87]

tdawg, you and I are on the exact same page on the AW philosophy that you are either Trout or you suck, of and if you are Trout and it is August of this year, we will talk about trading you. Newsflash AW, every free agent worth a damn has risk involved and those that don't appear to have risk will cost more money than they will actually be worth.

 

It's a vicious cycle. One of the biggest complaints I see about potential trade/FA targets is that the player is too old or "declining". Then we have a young, 26 year old free agent who is not at all declining but wait he isn't good enough so we don't want him. I just don't get it.

 

No free agent will ever meet this forum's standards. No trade target will ever be worth the package it would cost to acquire him. Yet we will all bitch when the team doesn't improve.

 

Oh and lets not forget to compare every potential FA target to another failed FA signing because that one guy who failed also played the same position and was only 4 years older and wasn't as good but still!

Edited October 14, 2015 by tdawg87

[Blarg]

But, he isn't the best player in the game and he can't be had for next to nothing so he sucks and we shouldn't go after him.

 

He has 8 years of contract left and an obvious decline in production. It's not that he sucks, his contract and dollars suck for the player he is evolving into. 

 

Creative money exchange of dollars paid by the Rays so that dropping him when he turns into Reggie Willits at age 35 (and I mean an age 35 Reggie Willits) doesn't hinder the payroll then maybe. But right now I don't think the Rays are paying for any players to beat them on another team like the Angels seem to like to do.

[Mark68]

No. He's already on the downside of his career and has played a million games on that painted concrete they call "turf" at the Trop.

[ABC]

And you believe his trend says that 110 OPS+ is going to improve over the next $110 million dollars in a pitchers park? 

 

Let's look at this trend, .261/.324/.419 for an awe inspiring .744 ops with fewer bombs than Calhoun in a home run friendly park. And he wasn't hurt, in fact he played 162 and 160 games, so it wasn't a health problem that he has to bounce back from. He will have them since he has been playing on cement for the last 8 years. 

 

Nice use of the payroll for picking up the next David Freese. 

 

You claimed people are ignoring his past two seasons and going on name rec alone. If his OPS was .840 the past year, he'd be untouchable. His two down seasons might make him touchable. That's the whole point.

 

So who is ignoring his past two seasons?

[ABC]

He has 8 years of contract left and an obvious decline in production. It's not that he sucks, his contract and dollars suck for the player he is evolving into. 

 

Creative money exchange of dollars paid by the Rays so that dropping him when he turns into Reggie Willits at age 35 (and I mean an age 35 Reggie Willits) doesn't hinder the payroll then maybe. But right now I don't think the Rays are paying for any players to beat them on another team like the Angels seem to like to do.

 

Does his contract suck if he has 5 years at .760 OPS with gg defense, mix in one .850 OPS, and two tail years at .720 OPS? I think that is fair to expect and that will be a steal if TB is getting scared and wants to dump the salary.

[mrwicked]

he's better than what we got.

i say go for it.

[Blarg]

I don't see Tampa Bay, a team with limited payroll, making a move that forces them to pay for Longoria to play somewhere else but that is another subject.

 

The real subject is looking at a players career and being honest about what to expect from them when you factor in games played, where they were played and if that affects future performance. 

 

As is people are freaking out about Pujols (118 OPS+) contract with 6 more years and a player in decline and he played on natural surface. Longoria has played 8 years on concrete with 8 more to go and his numbers are propped up by the majority of hitter friendly parks in the AL East, one of which is his home park where his slugging and home run totals are falling.

 

Now, put him in Anaheim and the AL West run suppressing ballparks like Oakland and Seattle and many of his hits fall for outs and that average and marginal OBP is going to take a hit. So you are more than likely not getting even the player that Tampa Bay could trade if the Angels made it worth it for them to let go of their one marquee player. 

 

I seriously doubt he will ever see an .800 OPS season, certainly not with the Angels. His current self is just a slightly above league average player (111 OPS+), shockingly close to David Freese (109 OPS+) while entering his 30's. 

 

I just see the risk is higher than reward. Longoria's ceiling is now much lower than when he was in his mid 20's. His floor could just fall out from under him or he bumps along with that low .700 OPS for another 5 years. 

[Blarg]

On caveat I will add is Longoria is playing on a crappy team with almost nothing to play for. He could be inspired to play better if he was on a contender and had a core that included Trout in the lineup. Could, maybe but I really don't think it changes much.

[Blarg]

I can see the Angels trading Cowart that goes Grichuck with Tampa Bay and Longoria goes to the DL and the board exploding like multiple nukes were set off in timed intervals.

 

Could be entertaining, make the move Eppler!

[laagamer]

Another large contract to a 30 yr old player?

[beatlesrule]

Reach for the skies.  Go after Machado!

[NrM]

I would love Longoria. The Rays haven't made any indication that they are looking to trade him though.

[ABC]

Who are you a GM for again?

[NrM]

Who are you a GM for again?

 

 

 

[nate]

.764 OPS for 100 mil???

What has gotten into people? Freese had a .743 OPS.

[NrM]

.764 OPS for 100 mil???

What has gotten into people? Freese had a .743 OPS.

Longoria 2015 OPS+ 111

Heyward 2015 OPS+ 117

 

If Heyward is worth 250 million, then 100 million for longoria is nothing...

 

but oh wait heyward is 26..totally worth an extra 150 million.

Edited October 14, 2015 by Poozy

[tdawg87]

I don't see Tampa Bay, a team with limited payroll, making a move that forces them to pay for Longoria to play somewhere else but that is another subject.

 

Did someone suggest that Tampa Bay would be throwing in cash in the deal? I don't see it. I'm pretty sure any team that trades for him would take on his entire contract.

 

As is people are freaking out about Pujols (118 OPS+) contract with 6 more years and a player in decline and he played on natural surface. Longoria has played 8 years on concrete with 8 more to go and his numbers are propped up by the majority of hitter friendly parks in the AL East, one of which is his home park where his slugging and home run totals are falling.

 

Pujols is 5 years older than Longoria and will be making 12.5 more million per year. That's dangerously close to doubling Longoria's contract. He also only has 7 years to go. The 8th year is a team option (semantics, but still). In regards to the surface factor, is there any evidence of that having a long-term negative impact on a player? I'm not doubting its possibility but I haven't seen anything concrete (no pun intended).

 

You are correct that the AL East is a hitter friendly division, however Tropicana has never been a hitter's park. That is a common misconception. Also, Fenway hasn't been a true hitter's park in years. The other three are definitely big for hitters but the AL West has Globe Life and the Shithole in Houston so is 1 fewer hitter's park going to make that big of a difference?

 

Now, put him in Anaheim and the AL West run suppressing ballparks like Oakland and Seattle and many of his hits fall for outs and that average and marginal OBP is going to take a hit. So you are more than likely not getting even the player that Tampa Bay could trade if the Angels made it worth it for them to let go of their one marquee player. 

 

See above. Tropicana has been very similar in terms of park factors to Anaheim for years now.

 

I seriously doubt he will ever see an .800 OPS season, certainly not with the Angels. His current self is just a slightly above league average player (111 OPS+), shockingly close to David Freese (109 OPS+) while entering his 30's. 

 

Possible that he won't ever see another ".800" OPS season, but that isn't based on anything but his last 2 years. I'm sure plenty of people said this about Beltre in 2009 after he turned 30 and came off the worst season of his career. Also this is definitely semantics again but a 111 OPS+ is better than "slightly above league average". If you can get a third basemen who regularly puts up a 110 OPS+ with good defense you have a pretty damn good player on your hands. The Angels currently have no one who can do anything close to that at 3rd.

 

As for the Freese comparison, come on now. Freese was playing in a contract year and still had a worse year than Longo did. Freese is also not a good defensive player so there's that.

 

Longoria's ceiling is now much lower than when he was in his mid 20's. His floor could just fall out from under him or he bumps along with that low .700 OPS for another 5 years.

 

This could be said about any player entering their 30's. Again, look at Beltre. Also I'd gladly take a third baseman who could play good D and put up a low .700 OPS for another 5 years. What better options are there?

 

"But that isn't worth 100 mil" no, of course it isn't. But this circles back to my point about how no FA or trade target will ever be good enough here. Talent is expensive as ****. Marginal talent is expensive as ****. You want to improve your team? Be prepared to pay out the ass.

 

Unless we want to lose and start drafting like the Astros for 10 years, it's the only way this team is going to compete.

[tdawg87]

.764 OPS for 100 mil???

What has gotten into people? Freese had a .743 OPS.

 

Over the next 7 years, Longoria (who is 2 years younger than Freese) will be making just over 15 million a year on average.

 

What is Freese going to get? 10 million per at least. Possibly closer to 12 million. Is Longo worth 3-5 million more per year than Freese? I'd say so. He's 2 years younger as well.

 

Also lets not forget about defense here. It's pretty important for a position like 3rd. Freese is not good defensively. Longo is.

[tdawg87]

Longoria 2015 OPS+ 111

Heyward 2015 OPS+ 117

 

If Heyward is worth 250 million, then 100 million for longoria is nothing...

 

but oh wait heyward is 26..totally worth an extra 150 million.

 

Where are you getting the 250 million figure from? That's at least 50 million more than he will actually get. At LEAST.

[tdawg87]

I love semantics btw.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Over the next 7 years, Longoria (who is 2 years younger than Freese) will be making just over 15 million a year on average.

 

What is Freese going to get? 10 million per at least. Possibly closer to 12 million. Is Longo worth 3-5 million more per year than Freese? I'd say so. He's 2 years younger as well.

 

Also lets not forget about defense here. It's pretty important for a position like 3rd. Freese is not good defensively. Longo is.

 

Freese can't stay on the field either...

[Blarg]

Tdawg, Beltre has the singular (pun) condition in MLB where he is able to take steroid enhancements to counter gonaditis, the result of having a ball removed from a ball to his balls. So any comparisons are tainted (pun).

Edited October 14, 2015 by notti

[Blarg]

Over the next 7 years, Longoria (who is 2 years younger than Freese) will be making just over 15 million a year on average.

What is Freese going to get? 10 million per at least. Possibly closer to 12 million. Is Longo worth 3-5 million more per year than Freese? I'd say so. He's 2 years younger as well.

Also lets not forget about defense here. It's pretty important for a position like 3rd. Freese is not good defensively. Longo is.

Does it help to know I wouldn't want Freese either?

[yamsi12]

Halos should try and trade for Charlie Blackmon.

[Blarg]

Agreed. Dipoto traded away our last Blackmon.