2015 Pecota 90 Wins

[DW711]

If the Dodgers don't make any more moves between now and the trade deadline (1% chance of happening)...teams are going to steals all over them (especially with Grandal) catching.

 

Ellis was injured a lot of the time..so I'll give him a pass last season.

[Docwaukee]

Looks like they are projecting a pretty big improvement from Pujols, countered by a significant drop off from Trout.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if it's based mostly on "he can't possibly be this bad" and "he can't possibly be this good" respectively.

Trout's predicted drop is only about 10%.  I can live with that. 

 

Pujols increase is about 20%.  From 3.3 to 3.9.  I'm fine with him staying the same.  

 

They've got Aybar going from a 4.1 to a 1.4. and Hamilton with a 3.6. 

 

Aybar could net 1.4 WAR in his sleep and if Josh gets to 3.6, I'd be ecstatic

 

They have freese slated for 1.2.  He had 2.1 last year and I think he improves on that.  

 

They've got Iannetta and Calhoun dropping a bit as well

 

on the pitching side, they've got Richards at 0.7 and Shoe at -0.2.  

 

It's pretty interesting and I see where they are coming from, but this and steamer pretty much hat our pitching.  Zips kinda likes it though.  

[Second Base]

Well, let's be fair, this is all a matmatical equation, it isn't as if anyone is slighting us. I understand where it's coming from too. Shoemaker's minor league numbers scream fluke. Until he does it again the projections will hate.

As for Trout, his performance has been so high that system automatically indicate he has nowhere to go but down. I mean name one equation that saw him hitting 36 HR's last year.

Pujols, he has the gaudy past numbers that PECOTA takes into account, so of course it likes him.

It would be amazing if someone could combine numbers with common sense to create a projection system more worthwhile, but therein lies the conflict. What's common sense to one person isn't for a thousand others.

[Hollyw00d]

Pecota doesn't, and can't, account for outliers like matt shoemaker, jose abreu, jose altuve, etc

It's also pretty conservative on its estimates. Hence why they rarely predict teams to win more 90 games

[Guest]

Tampa 86 wins?

My thoughts exactly. I wonder if the author of this crock of shit even follows baseball.

[YouthofToday]

They must be really high on the Phillies this year. 69 wins is a crazy aggressive win total.

[NrM]

Trout's predicted drop is only about 10%.  I can live with that. 

 

Pujols increase is about 20%.  From 3.3 to 3.9.  I'm fine with him staying the same.  

 

They've got Aybar going from a 4.1 to a 1.4. and Hamilton with a 3.6. 

 

Aybar could net 1.4 WAR in his sleep and if Josh gets to 3.6, I'd be ecstatic

 

They have freese slated for 1.2.  He had 2.1 last year and I think he improves on that.  

 

They've got Iannetta and Calhoun dropping a bit as well

 

on the pitching side, they've got Richards at 0.7 and Shoe at -0.2.  

 

It's pretty interesting and I see where they are coming from, but this and steamer pretty much hat our pitching.  Zips kinda likes it though.  

 

What the hell man.

3.6 from Josh? If you combined his first 2 seasons with the angels he still falls short of 3.6 wins.

3.9 from Pujols? He hasn't done that in 4 years.

 

.7 from Richards? Where the **** did they pull that number from.

 

PECOTA is ****ing awful.

[NrM]

i agree with rhe defense, but the offense part i disagree with.

Id kill to have the dodgers front line pitching. But from an offense standpoint, it was a fluky out of nowhere season from hanley in 13 that rescued their season (they were as shitty as we were at the break), and the same from kemp in 2014. Both are gone. I like agon, but hes not getting any younger, and puig still needs to be good for 6 months, not on fire for one, good for 2, and whatever for 3. Maybe pederson figures it out this year? Then again maybe hes a 4th outfielder like some have projected.

Either way, the dodgers took a hit offensively (though they gained at 2B). The giants havent gotten worse, and the padres have vastly improved.

Arizona was the dodgers whipping boy last year. Not saying that will change, but it will also depend on if literally everything goes wrong for them again (az in 14 was us in 13).

 

 

It'll be interesting to see how things turn out with so many changes to the offense and defense.

 

Is great defense more valuable than great offense? Does great defense translate into great pitching? 

I think their offense takes a slight hit, but not as much as many seem to believe.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Poozy

[Angelsjunky]

LOL at Angelswin butthurt regarding the Dodgers. It reminds me of Mets fans with regards to the Yankees - an inferiority complex that becomes aggressive.

 

Anyhow, statistical projections tend to be conservative and pull everything towards the mean. Without a doubt many teams will out-play or under-play those projections, but those seem generally reasonable. Of course we can nit-pick individual projections, many of which seem silly - but as Scotty said, it is just a computer formula, not some guy eyeballing it.

[wopphil]

Got a question regarding Shoe: his peripherals were outstanding, supporting the great ERA. But can someone with more advanced statistical knowledge tell me whether he got "lucky," from a statistical standpoint, with respect to the percentage of fkyballs that didn't go over the wall?

[ten ocho recon scout]

It'll be interesting to see how things turn out with so many changes to the offense and defense.

Is great defense more valuable than great offense? Does great defense translate into great pitching?

I think their offense takes a slight hit, but not as much as many seem to believe.

Probably correct. To clarify more how i see it, i think hanleys 1e and kemps 14 were flukes. Not that they both dont have good track records, just that their splits coming into those years dont match up. And those big years they had were the big difference (offense wise) for the team those years.

Puig gets all the pub, but hanley was the mvp (outside of kershaw) in 13. Kemp was it (outside of kershaw) in 14. Both guys are gone now. Maybe puig puts it all together? Maybe agon has a big year? Either or both can happen. But i think losing the two guys who most carried the team the last two years is gonna have an effect.

And i havent followed their smaller moves very closely, but do they still have a weak bullpen?

[ten ocho recon scout]

LOL at Angelswin butthurt regarding the Dodgers. It reminds me of Mets fans with regards to the Yankees - an inferiority complex that becomes aggressive.

Anyhow, statistical projections tend to be conservative and pull everything towards the mean. Without a doubt many teams will out-play or under-play those projections, but those seem generally reasonable. Of course we can nit-pick individual projections, many of which seem silly - but as Scotty said, it is just a computer formula, not some guy eyeballing it.

Its a valid question though AJ. Nobody here denies their pitching. Its top 3. But rheir offense absolutely has question marks, and they just lost 2 pretty significant pieces.

The projection for them is saying not only has their competition not gotten stronger, but that kershaw/grienke somehow improve over their already dominance enough to make up for a questionable offense.

In all fairness, how much better are the dodgers right now than seattle? I like sesttle a lot (well, i hate them, but think theyve built a very good team). But is anyone viewing them right now as 98 wins?

[Inside Pitch]

Its a valid question though AJ. Nobody here denies their pitching. Its top 3. But rheir offense absolutely has question marks, and they just lost 2 pretty significant pieces.

 

I dont think Pederson will be that big of a dropoff..  Howie is a career .304/.344/.427 hitter in nearly 500 interleague plate appearances.   Throw in the defensive improvements those two and Rollins brings at SS and its likely a wash.   Also, Grandal despite his warts has offensive upside -- his OPS+ last year was 112, 

[Angel Oracle]

I could see the AL West with no teams below .500

Happened once before: 1991, when in a 7 team AL West (pre-3 divisions set up) the Halos finished in last place at 81-81.

[Angel Oracle]

PECOTA doesn't take into account things like the Giants' uncanny even numbered years only success.

[Hollyw00d]

grandal could have a nice season, he's definitely a sleeper

[NrM]

Probably correct. To clarify more how i see it, i think hanleys 1e and kemps 14 were flukes. Not that they both dont have good track records, just that their splits coming into those years dont match up. And those big years they had were the big difference (offense wise) for the team those years.

Puig gets all the pub, but hanley was the mvp (outside of kershaw) in 13. Kemp was it (outside of kershaw) in 14. Both guys are gone now. Maybe puig puts it all together? Maybe agon has a big year? Either or both can happen. But i think losing the two guys who most carried the team the last two years is gonna have an effect.

And i havent followed their smaller moves very closely, but do they still have a weak bullpen?

I think there are many players capable of stepping up for the dodgers to replace the loss in production. They might not have the star power, but they managed to get younger and healthier. I look at their offense and don't see many holes. They seem capable of sustaining injuries with their solid depth. Maybe I'm being a little biased because I'm a big friedman fan.

If Kershaw, grienkie and ryu stay healthy for the majority of the season, I think they will be one of the best teams in baseball.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Poozy

[DW711]

PECOTA doesn't take into account things like the Giants' uncanny even numbered years only success.

 

or trades, season ending injuries, etc etc...

[gurn67]

Happened once before: 1991, when in a 7 team AL West (pre-3 divisions set up) the Halos finished in last place at 81-81.

Then took that last place finish and drafted Pete Janicki. F'ng O'Brien! Granted, with the exception of Jeter at number 6, it was an unusually weak draft class.

[YouthofToday]

Pederson is an upgrade for then in CF. Dodgers are going to be very, very good.

Hoping for a Freeway Series that ends on a Trout walk off bomb.

[Brent Maguire]

These projections seem fine. Projections are designed to regress to the mean so you won't see outlandish predictions.

 

Projecting any team to win more than 90 games is risky because one major injury or poor performance from a key player can drastically alter a teams' win total.