Point/Counterpoint - Beating a Dead Horse: The Street Trade

[Lou]

in 2007 nobody was saying we would be bad in 3 years. 

In 2010/2011 many were saying we had no farm system and it would kill us in a couple of years.

 

And, yet, here we are.

[seenoevil]

Closers are invaluable. Street is dope. Thank you Jerry!

[Docwaukee]

I am filing the Street trade under the 'law of diminishing returns' file which also contains the Greinke and Freese trades.  Using significant assets for very little (potentially) gain. 

 

The so called 'window of opportunity' is a self fullfilling prophecy. 

[Stradling]

So Doc, do you think we would have had a better chance to win the world series this year and next year without adding Street? Or even the same chance?

[nate]

That isn't the point, Stradling.

 

It is about the fact that these trades significantly lower the chance of a WS appearance in future years.

 

Everyone talks about win now, but outside of maybe the Manager and the players, nobody in a sports organization believes that.  It is about being good for a long time.  That is how you gain fans and keep fans.  That is how you make money.  Self serving win now approaches are destined to fail.

[Stradling]

nate, forgive me if I don't believe that, but it just isn't the case anymore. The best teams in baseball all use free agency except for maybe the Cardinals and A's. If that was the case then teams like the Rays or the Royals would be perennial contenders. In order to be good for a long time in this league you need one of two things, you either need money, or you need to be bad for a long time. Now don't get me wrong, I do think it is somewhat of an overpay, but I have seen too many players not pan out, players that we could have traded for proven talent. We no longer have Alvarez but we still have Morin, Bedrosian and it sounds like Reynolds has turned some heads, not to mention all the arms that have been drafted the last two years. Lindsay is just another guy, I have no idea what Morris will be and then we gave up Rondon, who could be pretty good.

[Angelsjunky]

For a point of clarification, I am totally enjoying the Angels' success this year - and criticizing Dipoto is not antithetical to that.

 

our farm system has been trashed for years now by the  experts. 

However,  guys like Richards, Shoemaker, Skaggs, Cron, Navarro, Calhoun, Cowgill, Conger,Morin, Greene,etc have all made contributions to the team.

Oh, and that Trout kid.

 

Lots of problems with this list, Lou. Skaggs was drafted by the Angels but only spent a year and a half in the org before being traded to Arizona. Cowgill was a major league 4th/5th outfielder when the Angels traded for him. Green was a trade as well, and only as a ripe AAA player. Richards has been in the majors for a few years and thus is not really a recent minor leaguer, the same with Trout. Navarro is no more than a bench player, Morin a good reliever. I like Shoemaker, but he's at best a #4 starter. Cron might not be a star, and Conger certainly doesn't look better than a platoon player. So your list isn't exactly overflowing with recent fully homegrown talent.

 

The point being, you're all over the place with the list - including players that weren't even from the org, or spent little time in the org, as well as some bench types. Think about the last two years, 2013-14, and think about the next year or two. How many good players have made their debut or will make their debut? Not many. And of course looking at the minors level by level shows us just how weak the system is - not a lot of talent there. Some, but not much.

 

and all those horrible moves have led us to the 2nd best record in baseball.  Something just doesn't add up here

 

Well we can see the cost - trading away the farm to make up for mistakes. Again, I'm not saying JD hasn't made some good moves, but that his transactions overall haven't been good. This isn't black-and-white. JD has taken a shotgun approach, which means some of the shot hits the target but most doesn't.

 

To be fair AJ, he did flip callaspo for green and somebody for cowgill (for the sake of argument lets pretend the other guy was older). But I see your point.

In terms of bullpen, agree with you and doc that he should have fixed it in the offseason. I think though that after 2013 the org was in a holding pattern to see how it shaped up...would calhoun live up to expectstions. Is skaggs for real. Will pujols rebound etc.

If the team was scuffling right now, or even .500, we dont trade for street and likely shop howie, aybar and maybe iannetta. But since theyre winning, and winning big, the 'plan B' came up

 

Again, he's made some decent moves, even one or two good ones. But I'd argue that the majority of his moves--trades and free agent signings--have been mediocre or worse.

 

Your last sentence makes me remember that early in the season we were talking about firesale scenarios. Man, have things changed.

 

I still say Alvarez is the only guy that we miss in this trade. The one positive thing is that the org actually has depth in pitching but it is all in single A and rookie ball but the pitching is all under contract for the next two years.

Lindsay and rondon are backups. Rondon needs to seriously get on a lifting program or some peds. A lot of the doubles I saw him hit in Orem would never be doubles in the mlb. His SO surge in the cal league is interesting since there as no power increase. Lindsay had a good year in Orem but he was a dead pull hitter. It would be interesting to see how many mlb'ers with the angels had sub .800 ops in both the cal league and the PCL. My guess would be close to zero if not zero, but I could be wrong.

 

Thanks for sharing your observations of Rondon. My sense is that his BA this year is a bit empty and that it won't hold as he goes up levels. Still, a 20-year old hitting .327 in A+ ball is hard to ignore. Still, there's part of me that fears it will hold and he'll be a borderline star in a few years. Who knows.

 

I used to be really high on Lindsey and still think he can be an average major league regular, but he isn't a huge loss - Yarbrough seems similar, as does Green. And yeah, I think Alvarez is the biggest lost. He looks like a potential elite closer.

[Angelsjunky]

nate, forgive me if I don't believe that, but it just isn't the case anymore. The best teams in baseball all use free agency except for maybe the Cardinals and A's. If that was the case then teams like the Rays or the Royals would be perennial contenders. In order to be good for a long time in this league you need one of two things, you either need money, or you need to be bad for a long time. Now don't get me wrong, I do think it is somewhat of an overpay, but I have seen too many players not pan out, players that we could have traded for proven talent. We no longer have Alvarez but we still have Morin, Bedrosian and it sounds like Reynolds has turned some heads, not to mention all the arms that have been drafted the last two years. Lindsay is just another guy, I have no idea what Morris will be and then we gave up Rondon, who could be pretty good.

 

Stradling, the most successful franchises in baseball use a balance of free agency and homegrown talent, some leaning more heavily one way or the other. But all hold in common the value of maintaining a strong farm system. Farm systems go in cycles, but a smart org will not let their's run completely dry, like the Angels have.

 

I think the Cardinals are the model organization in MLB. They compete yearly, always have an excellent farm system, and augment with solid free agent choices while passing up on questionable ones (ahem).

[sneaky_flute]

Speaking of the Cardinals, they just received a first round competitive balance pick which is ****ing horseshit. No top-10 revenue organization should take part in such a lottery. 

[Stradling]

AJ, the Angels have a balance as well.

Navaro

Howie

Aybar

Conger

Calhoun

Trout

Weaver

Richards

Shoemaker

Jepsen

Morin

Cron

and I am probably missing a couple. They have said the Angels farm has sucked for years, but in the last couple of years we have gotten Calhoun, Cron, Conger, Richards, Morin, Shoemaker, Navarro and that is basically 25% of our roster that is contributing to a 95 win team. I get that we always would prefer to have a great minor league system, but if ours sucks and we still have this many contributing players, then let it continue to suck and make trades to help this team. This doesn't even take into account the Dipoto and Servais philosophy that I think it was you and IP talked about on here. The philosophy of drafting players with higher floors versus higher ceilings. If we continue to do that we will be fine.

[Docwaukee]

So Doc, do you think we would have had a better chance to win the world series this year and next year without adding Street? Or even the same chance?

of course not to either.  it's a matter of opinion as to whether it will be worth it of course.  To me, the degree of improvement doesn't even come close to matching the cost. 

 

On top of that, you had a chance to make the pen stronger with assets like bourjos and grichuk or even via relatively low cost free agents. 

 

I am generally not a fan of mid season trades to make yourself better for the potential to get to the playoffs beyond a 1 game WC.  I am ok with it if you are running away with the division. 

 

That being said, I am extremely happy with the team and how they look right now and I'm very excited.  The one thing i have confidence in is Dipoto's ability to evaluate his and other's young players.  His track record with bringing in established guys is pretty poor though.  So while I think this and a couple other deals have been a misuse of resources, the guys he gives up haven't exactly panned out and hopefully we won't miss them beyond not getting full value and/or improvement. 

[Stradling]

I see your point Doc, but if you have faith in Dipoto's ability to evaluate young players, then maybe you should have more faith in this trade.

[Lou]

AJ, believe me,  I know that list was flawed.  it was in response to Nate's inclusion of Ogando,Harrison,Cruz and Hamilton as Texas homegrown players

[Lou]

how many current players we on the roster 3 years ago? Maybe 5 or 6?

 

Trying to predict what the roster will look like in 2017 is futile

[sneaky_flute]

They've had a few homegrown players and while not drafted by Texas, many of their acquisitions have spent substantial time in the minor league system. I don't know of any clubs who have 20 homegrown players on their major league roster. 

[Docwaukee]

I see your point Doc, but if you have faith in Dipoto's ability to evaluate young players, then maybe you should have more faith in this trade.

my point is and has been all along that no matter how good these young players become for someone else, you have a finite amount of resources and you have to spend them wisely. 

 

it works the same for players as it does with payroll. 

[NachoPop]

Since the trade:

Street - 1 save

What we gave up - 0 saves.

I still haven't mastered predicting the future yet so for now I'm happy

Edited July 24, 2014 by NachoPop

[nate]

I never said they were homegrown or if I did that wasn't my intention.  The fact is all minor leaguers are question marks until they make it in MLB.

[Lou]

Ogando

Harrison

Cruz

Hamilton

 

All still came through the Texas farm, even if not in every level.  They could have easily traded them but they held on.

 

got it nate . This is the post I was referring to. Just trying to clear up for AJ why I included some players I had included in that list. If you can include guys that didn't actually come up thru the ranks in texas' organization,  I did the same.

 

Although Hamilton wouldn't qualify even under those guidelines.

 

#Boom

[nate]

And you forget Holland, Feliz, Andrus, Moreland, Borbon, Kinsler, etc that all contributed.

[Lou]

I got bored

[nate]

Then why do you keep listing Ogando?  He started with the Rangers Dominican team and moved through their system.

 

Harrison was in AA when he was traded.

 

Cruz was in AAA when they got him from Milwaukee

[Lou]

ogando was originally signed by the A's.  Three years later he was selected by texas in the Rule 5 draft.

 

Again,  my point was that if you're going to include any player that merely played in the minors before being called up then our list would include Green, Cowgill, etc.

 

That's the point I was making to AJ.

 

now I'm really bored. Time to watch the game

Edited July 25, 2014 by Lou

[Tyler]

Since the trade:

Street - 1 save

What we gave up - 0 saves.

I still haven't mastered predicting the future yet so for now I'm happy

What is the Angels record since acquiring Street?

[Lou]

not sure but Lindsey is 2-21 (.095) with an ops of .269 since being traded.