Trout fWAR update

[Angelsjunky]

In basically unimportant news, Trout finally passed Cabrera for the #1 spot.

 

6.1 Trout

6.0 Cabrera

5.2 Davis

5.0 Wright

4.8 McCutchen

4.8 Longoria

 

It seems likely that Trout will, once again, lead the majors in the WAR and, once again, not win the MVP.

[tdawg87]

Is he even at 5 WAR yet for baseball reference?

Still, Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. There shouldn't be doubt in anyone who's not from Detroit's mind. We really need to lock him up.

[Angelsjunky]

Baseball Reference has him at 4.8 WAR, mainly due to a -1.2 dWAR. I really don't get it - even if we say that his overall defensive performance isn't quite as good as last year, with less extraordinary plays, he's still an above average outfielder by any account, and actually still very good.

[Angelsjunky]

This list still amazes me. Its all 218 players with 500+ PA through their age 21 seasons sorted by WAR. Trout's #2 at 16.8 behind Mel Ott at 19.3, so unless he gets injured he's sure to pass Ott.

 

Now the amazing part is look at the games played - Trout is there with 275 vs. Ott's 539 (which is amazing in and of itself - that Ott played over 500 games through his age 21 season).

 

 

 

[stormngt]

There is the common sense factor whenever analyzing data.

 

Just watching Trout play defense clearly shows that he is above average defense.  Therefore the dWAR of -1.2 discredits the entire stat for this year.

[YouthofToday]

It's amazing how dreadful this team and organization is, in aggregate, outside of the greatness of Mike Trout.

If it wasn't for Trout we would arguably be the third worst team in MLB. That is an amazing amount of organizational incompetence -- especially with the worst farm system in baseball.

[seenoevil]

They have different kind of War standings. Are these sites updated with their war stats.

 

Baseball reference seems to have Trout not contending for the leader.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2013-batting-leaders.shtml

[Troll Daddy]

Great stuff ... Trout is the best all around player but I still view Cabrera as MVP this season.

Still lots of baseball left to play. It will be a close race for MVP. A pitcher may have a chance to win this season.

[EDinTUSTIN]

It is hard to argue against Cabrera, that's for sure. I still go with Trout, but I am biased. LOL

[Angelsjunky]

Yeah, as of this moment I'd vote:

1. Cabrera

2. Trout

3. Davis

[Troll Daddy]

Yeah, as of this moment I'd vote:

1. Cabrera

2. Trout

3. Davis

Where do you see Max Scherzer in the voting?

[jsnpritchett]

Where do you see Max Scherzer in the voting?

 

For MVP?  Or Cy Young?  Doubt he'll even be in the top 10 for MVP.

[WallyWorld]

Cabrera's numbers are even better than last season, Trout's slightly worse (at least HR and SB pace).  And divisional strength/weakness aside, the Tigers are in 1st and the Angels headed for 4th.  I thought Trout deserved MVP last year, but I don't know how you argue against Cabrera this year.  Dude has been unbelievable.

[Angelsjunky]

I personally don't like voting pitchers for MVP. But given that there's a precedent, it should only occur if A) there is no clear MVP from position players, and the pitcher has a season for the ages and is clearly head and shoulders above other pitchers.

 

Scherzer is having a great year but I don't think either point qualifies him. Cabrera, Trout, and Davis are all having great years, and despite what one might think of pitching WAR, Felix Hernandez is ahead of him and Derek Holland tied.

 

One of my problems with pitchers being eligible for the MVP is that it is so inconsistent year to year. For instance, why did Verlander win it in 2011 over Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Bautista, but in 1999 Pedro Martinez (23-4, 2.07 ERA, 11.9 fWAR!) didn't win it over Pudge Rodriguez (.332/.356/.558, 6.8 fWAR). Of course back in 1999 they didn't even have WAR, and even if they did MVP voters would have cared for it even less than they do now, but anything watching baseball back then knew that Pedro Martinez was to pitching what Barry Bonds was to hitting - so much better than everyone else and arguably more dominant than any pitcher in major league history.  By the way, Pedro's 11.9 fWAR in 1999 was the second highest by a pitcher in the 20th-21st centuries after Steve Carlton's 12.1 in 1972 - and he pitched 133 innings less than Carlton. In his prime, Pedro was basically an elite closer, but for 7+ innings a game. He was unbelievably good for about half a decade there.

[Angelsjunky]

That said, given that HoF voters love wins I can see a trajectory where Scherzer wins it: if he wins 8 or more games and finishes with 22+ and only a few losses, AND Miggy misses significant time due to his hip flexor, AND Chris Davis tanks, AND they continue to ignore Trout because of how sucky the Angels are.

[Mudville]

Pitchers have their own award for playing only once every five games and never should be considered over position players.

[markb]

It's a shame that Trout's bad April is dragging down his season stats, or I think he'd be a pretty serious challenger to Cabrera for MVP right now.  As has been pointed out before, he's made adjustments in fixing his only real weakness (strikeouts), and instead of the slight regression from last year that some feared may happen, Trout just keeps getting better.  

 

Trout's highest OPS by month:

 

July '12:  1.259

July '13:  1.146

May '13: 1.073

June '13:  .974

 

So aside from his torrid July last year (which he seems to be trying to match this year), his best months have all been this season.  

 

Also of note is that Cabrera has been something closer to mortal this month so far with a .276/.419/.586 line, which is still really damn good, but he may be dealing with an injury now as well.  If he continues to slip a bit and Trout keeps going berserk like he has been, who knows.  Unfortunately baserunning and defense aren't recognized like slash lines for MVP though, because then it'd be no contest.

[Jay]

Why is Trout -1.2 dWAR?  Because of his arm?

[Brent Maguire]

Trout is the best player in baseball. Period. 

 

Cabrera will win MVP and I wouldn't argue against it and Davis has been incredible too. But Trout is absolutely the best player in the game and will be for a while. 

 

Trout's BB% is up from 10.5% to 11.6% and his strikeouts are down from 21.8% to 16.7%. He improved his discipline while fixing his one major flaw. That's incredible for a guy his age. He struck out above the league average last year and is now below the league average. It's really hard to fathom what this guy has done so far. I pray we lock him up for 10 years really soon. 

[mrwicked]

can mcab do back to back trip-crown?

that would be insane.

[Ray McKigney]

What is WAR? It's obviously some sort of statistic or something of that nature. Is it important or something?

[AZMike]

Baseball Reference has him at 4.8 WAR, mainly due to a -1.2 dWAR. I really don't get it - even if we say that his overall defensive performance isn't quite as good as last year, with less extraordinary plays, he's still an above average outfielder by any account, and actually still very good.

According to baseball reference dWAR JB Shuck has -0.5 dWAR. This means Mike Trout is supposedly a WORSE outfielder, by far, than JB Shuck (!)

 

Due to yesterday's 7th and 9th inning performances, Trout and the Angels overall added to their sizable leads for dead last in clutchness. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

The defensive metrics are still pretty light on sample size. We can be as confident in those results as we can be in about one month of offensive performance. If Trout slumped offensively for one month we wouldn't be too concerned (Bref has him slightly below average, and Fg has him slightly above average). By the end of the season Bref will probably have him at average and Fg at noticeably above.

Also Trout has got to be a heavy favorite to run away with the WAR title for the second year in a row. His game is so much improved from last years' when he had a pretty high (unsustainable) BABIP. This years it's Cabrera who is playing way over his head up to this point. In the end though MCab will walk away with another MVP.